Josh Smith, Grizzlie for a day

I have yet to comment on the almost signing of Josh Smith. Its been 3 weeks, and so forgive my tardiness. Traveling to Vegas and then to Switzerland has been hard on my blogging.

On the Smith deal, you can read the basic details in the article here, but the jist of the story is that the Grizz signed the restricted free agent Atlanta Hawk to a straightforward 5 year, $58M deal. The Hawks had the right to match any offer, and they did match this offer, locking Smith up the same day the Grizzlies' offer came to them.

Without a doubt, Josh Smith would have addressed the Grizzlies' biggest needs. He is an interior presence on the boards, on defense, and athletic enough on offense to draw attention from our perimeter core players. He is only 22, and would be perfect long term for the Grizzlies. Josh Smith, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, and Mark Gasol? That is a decent lineup that can get any fan excited.

Heisley and Wallace and just about everyone else knows that Josh Smith is a good young player that would have fit our team's needs. That's obvious. Everything comes down to money though, not his abilities. What $$ amount is Josh Smith worth? This is the key question in any player signing, but particularly in this game of poker between Atlanta and Memphis. If we offered too little, Atlanta would call and they have the better hand in that they can match any offer. If we offered Smith too much, Atlanta would fold, leaving us with an enormous paycheck for Smith.

Using the thinking behind the poker analogy, the question of signing Smith becomes a dual one. Not only how much is Smith worth $$ wise, but also how much will Atlanta match? By all accounts, Josh Smith was Atlanta's top priority. They publicly said they would match any offer that he signed with another team. So lets develop a market for Josh Smith, and then go through the thinking of how much the Grizz should offer Smith.

Step by step:

• Smith rejected a 5 year, $45M deal from the Hawks during the season. Given the playoff run and his play down the stretch, this is the absolute basement for any offer. In reality his value is above this level.
• There were talks, rumors of Atlanta and Smith looking to get a deal done with 6 years, $60M. So to me, $10M becomes a standard offer that Atlanta would automatically match if any team signed him, unless there were some funky clauses in the contract.
• The Grizz cap space could hold about $14M for next year, give or take some. Certainly we wouldn't want to use it all on one player. Also, we don't want to pay cap penalties for going over, as financially this would not be a sound decision for a team from a smaller market. In reality, my guess at the absolute best mathematical offer we could have made under the cap would have been about $12.5M per year, 5 years, making that about $62.5M. This is the ceiling.
• Atlanta had some cap pressure, given that they have to keep paying Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby who are signed to big deals. However, Atlanta's ability to sign a restricted free agent for millions more than other teams, without cap restrictions, was a huge trump card. The "Larry Bird Rule" makes it easier for a team that has held the service of a player for 5 years or since he was drafted to keep the player when other teams want to sign the free agent. Atlanta could have likely easily afforded and matched anything that we would have offered.

We offered him 5 years, $58M, which rounds out to $11.6M per year. I think that's a fair offer, but one that was too easy for Atlanta to match. I would have offered Smith a maximum of $12.5M per over 4 or 5 years. Given the fact that Atlanta likely would have matched anything up to $14 or $15M possibly, there was little chance that we could ever land Josh Smith, so long as the team wished to stay under the cap.

It was encouraging and exciting to see management go after Smith, but I knew immediately once I heard of the deal that Atlanta would match. As long as the Grizz keep trying and keep fighting to get out of the cellar of the NBA, all the while staying committed to youth and avoiding risky contracts, we will get there. This past off season has given me more confidence in the long term prospects of the Grizzlies than any of the past 5, that's a fact.

Young Guns

Blogging from Switzerland is difficult, especially when working hard during the week. On the weekends its tougher, like when the Pope is visiting places such as the peak of the Jungbrau Mountain in the Swiss Alps, taken from 11,333 feet:

Now back to blogging, hopefully as consistently as I promised over the next few weeks.

Notre Dame plays San Diego State on September 6th, 13 days from now. This is game 1 for the Irish, week 2 for everyone else, who start on August 30th, this coming weekend. What to watch for based on the various camp reports I read daily from Irish Illustrated, Irish Eyes, ND Nation, etc.

• Sophomore Tight End Mike Ragone out for the year with an ACL tear. Its not a full tear, but surgery has done him in for this season. Unfortunately he was our starter at Tight End this fall, a guy that has worked hard to increase his weight this offseason. Ragone was easily the fastest tight end on the roster last season, which included 2nd round pick John Carlson (likely starter in Seattle this year). Given the talent that ND is recruiting and producing at Tight End (at least 1 top 5 Tight End signed every year under Weis, last two TE starters for ND both became 2nd round picks), this is not the worst position to have a loss like this. We are going to count on Lacrosse player Will Yeatman (returning from suspension, missing the spring), as well as #1 TE in the country as a high school senior, freshman Kyle Rudolph, to pull some serious slack.


• The Freshman look great so far - as of right now, the following freshman will likely be on the field before the end of the first quarter in game 1 (not on special teams, but on offense and defense) - Ethan Johnson (DE out of Oregon, Rivals.com #34 final ranking in country), Robert Blanton (top 10 corner back from North Carolina), Michael Floyd (#3 WR in country, 2 time gatorade player of the year in Minnesota), and Kyle Rudolph (aforementioned, out of Cinncinnati). Many many others are making great first impressions, but at positions where they may not be immediately needed [Steve Filer (LB), Jonas Gray (RB), Trevor Robinson (OG), and Kapron Lewis Moore (DE) to name a few].


• Sophomore Rules - 3 starters on offense (would have been 4 without Ragone out as noted above), 4 on defense, and likely 3 more that have a chance to play significant starter minutes, prove the sophomore class to be harbinger of elite talent at ND for (hopefully) years to come. Most of these sophomores played as freshman, getting valuable albeit difficult experience. Weis is calling these guys "second year players", not sophomores, as he expects their 2007 experience to pay dividends this season. The most intriguing potential impact Sophomore didnt even play as a freshman - the new Hybrid Linebacker/Safety position features Tennessee native Harrison Smith (think Zbikowski, but a tad bit faster and 2 inches/10 pounds bigger). Defensive blitzing guru Jon Tenuta wants more speed on the field, and the Irish will have it. Harrison was Blue Gold game defensive MVP, wowing everyone in the spring and this fall.

I know what you're thinking - blah blah blah, Freshman this, Sophomore that. These kids have done nothing yet, and so most of you tune out the specifics I mention about young players. Why should you care? Because impact players don't appear overnight. Talent shows up in practice, and word gets around. Irish camp is buzzing with the impact of true freshman and sophomores beating out seniors, dropping jaws in practice. The tide is turning, the guards are changing, insert your favorite change cliche here.

Will this translate to the field? Here is how - In 2008, talent will be much more evident. But consistency will not. The Irish will beat or match a few opponents no one expects them to - but they will lose 2 close games to teams they should not. Big plays, excitement, and players learning how to win is how we will describe this season for the history books. I think people will remember this season like Lou Holtz's 1986 team, who despite going 6-6, fought hard against a very difficult schedule, losing extremely close games in Holtz's first year. 6-6 can mean many things, but it was clear that the 1986 season something was different, change was near. The next 8 years the best Notre Dame has seen in the last 30.

My prediction for the season is now set. I know ND's record, which bowl game we'll attend (yes we will win at least 6 games), and who are bowl opponent will be. Here is another tidbit for ya - the bowl game opponent will be a fun one, a more former short lived rival of the Irish. The buzz and excitement surrounding this bowl matchup to end the 2008 season will prompt ND to sign a home and home contract with their opponent. But thats another post, another day.

The Quiet before the Storm

In July and early August, the sports world goes on vacation. Besides Baseball trades and the all-star game, very little happens in the American sports world from July 4th until the end of August. When the sports world takes a few days off (and Q2 close comes around), this blog took a little vacation as well.

The lull isn't over yet. However, the train is leaving the station towards the pinnacle of the sporting calendar - fall. The coming football seasons of the NFL and College are providing the necessary momentum, while the post season baseball picture is also on the horizon. Sprinkle in a little bit of NBA and college basketball news, and you have a wonderful dish of sports heaven.

Vatican Smoke is officially back from vacation, and ready to entertain the few, the proud, the VaticanSmoke subscribers. Here's whats on tap for the Vatican's team, sort of what's on the horizon so to speak:



Notre Dame Football >> Fall camp starts today, Friday, August 8th. As with every August, the weather is hot and the Kool-Aid is cooool. Season prediction will likely come the week of the first game, and it might not be as good as you'd expect. Also, on the day the real Olympics start, recent word of Jimmy Clausen & football friends competing in the beer olympics has been on the 'net. I think its all hypocritical garbage when people criticize college athletes for drinking alcohol underage. Everyone did it, everyone does it, and its not a big deal so long as the police are not involved. More to come next week, but spirits on campus are very high.



Titans Football >> Reports out of camp has Vince Young throwing the deep ball particularly well. Chris Johnson (1st round draft pick, running back East Carolina) has looked fantastic. They plan to use the sub 4.3 speedster as a receiving threat out of the backfield. Jeff Fisher seems very excited about the team, but its training camp. The single most important factor in the Titans season is the progression of Vince Young.



Cardinals Baseball >> Tough loss to the Cubs today in extra innings. The Cards need to push and stay within 5 games or less of the Cubs. The realistic goal right now appears to be staying with the Brewers and fighting for the Wild Card. If the Cards can keep the pitching going and stay healthy, we'll be in it. We must have better relief pitching, which has been our achilles. Most blown saves of anyone in baseball, yet still in contention.



Grizzlies Basketball >> Offer made to Josh Smith, $58M 5 year year. Apparently he has "signed the offer sheet", which means the Hawks will have 7 days to match it. Word is they likely will match, as they were going to offer him about $10m per year for 6 years anyway. If we in fact get him lined up at PF, it would be a monumental sign for the Grizz. Defense, rebounds, and athleticism are what he has that we don't.

Have a great weekend - plenty on the plate for next week.