Transitions

Last night, the Grizzlies drafted Kevin Love at #5, and then Donte Green at #28. I posted my thoughts on the blog below, and then went to bed like most Memphis fans, thinking the Grizz roster just got two iffy players and no real sparkle.

Waking up Christmas morning is nice, but this morning was darn close. During the night (at about 1145pm last night) the Grizz traded Kevin Love to the Timberwolves for OJ Mayo (drafted #3), among other players. And right before that deal, the Grizz traded Donte Greene to Houston for Darrell Arthur (drafted at #27, power forward from Kansas). The Mayo trade also helped us by getting rid of Brian Cardinal and, unfortunately, Mike Miller. We got some solid veterans though in return in Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, and Greg Buckner. Read about the deals in short articles here, here, and here. That first headline in the Sacramento paper is awesome!

My dad wears transitions. You know, the glasses that transition to a darker tint, like sunglasses, when the sun shines upon them. I couldn't help but think of them and laugh, as I read the postings on the Grizzlies draft article on Commercial Appeal.com, the Memphis newspaper. 173 comments from 4pm yesterday until right now (~10am Friday). My father would be proud of the transition that I spotted in these posts, which went from hopeful to excited to angry to denial to absolute joy. These comments, along with their time stamps, tell a better story than I ever could. Its a bit long, but incredibly entertaining. I have even given my subtitles in red to guide you through the emotions:

Optimism

Posted by Sandman35739 on June 26, 2008 at 5:08 p.m. (Suggest removal)
If the Grizzlies end up picking Kevin Love I think I will vomit.
Make a deal, any deal, but don't sign Love.

Posted by Rees901 on June 26, 2008 at 5:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
no trade rumor i have read involving the grizz has been favorable for us. is wallace really that stupid??!!

Posted by ricksiders on June 26, 2008 at 5:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
There is absolutely nothing wrong with Love; and in fact, the guy fits a VERY big need for the Grizzlies...Power Forward. In addition, the guy is ready to contribute, and there is no doubt in my mind that he will put up 16ppg and 10rpg NEXT year! The Grizzlies need to get tough, and they need to play defense. What better way to do this than with the 19 year old from UCLA that has always been, and will continue to be, a winner!

Anger

Posted by Sandman35739 on June 26, 2008 at 7:07 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I can't believe they took Love.
Remind me not to order season tickets next year.

Posted by sputnik7 on June 26, 2008 at 7:23 p.m. (Suggest removal)
For the second year in a row Wallace plays it safe and boring. No guts no glory. This will be a super boring team. Seattle makes the gutsy pick and it will pay off. What a frigging let down!!! Go from the best player in the draft to the most boring! So much for trying to win fans!! Man, will this organization ever get it right???CW for dog catcher!!!

Posted by tigerlegacy on June 26, 2008 at 7:35 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Kevin "Big Country" Love? What a joke. Dorsey exposed him like every athlete in the NBA will. Didn't we just get rid of a big soft guy with "great" basketball skills that was a few inches taller than Love.
I can't wait to hear Ron Tillery try and spin another terrible move by the Griz.
Heisley needs to sell to the local ownership or take this terrible franchise to the Chicago suburbs so that they can be the Clippers of the Midwest.
What a joke!

A little bit of hope . . .

Posted by Sandman35739 on June 26, 2008 at 8:40 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Eight picks to go in the First Round and CDR is still available. Somebody is going to get a steal.

Posted by Sandman35739 on June 26, 2008 at 9:09 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
Pick #28 is up and CDR is still available!
If the Grizzlies don't blow this pick I might even forgive them for taking Love.

Posted by dwcoyote on June 26, 2008 at 9:12 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
CDR, CDR, CDR, CDR, come on Grizzlies!!!!!

More Anger

Posted by lcsteven on June 26, 2008 at 9:17 p.m. (Suggest removal)
They scr*wed the pooch by not taking CDR.

Posted by brad on June 26, 2008 at 9:26 p.m. (Suggest removal)
UN ........ REALDo the Griz NEVER WANT TO SELL ANOTHER TICKET???
I can't BELIEVE the stupidity of this organization.
You pass on CDR at #28?You take that BLEEPING pick just to get a**es in that building!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What an embarrassment.Clearly there are no intelligent decision makers in our front offices.
HEY GRIZ - YOU JUST DROVE THE NAILS IN YOUR OWN COFFIN.

Posted by dafranchise1 on June 26, 2008 at 9:27 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
F*** The Memphis Grizzlies. How in the hell do you not select Chris Douglass Roberts ? Now i'm thinking CDR coming out early was a bad move. It is a shame how some of the garbage in the drafte are getting drafted before him.

Posted by krc00d on June 26, 2008 at 9:28 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Folks, wait for the trade. This is called snagging an extra piece. Greene was rated much higher than CDR, however silly that may be. Now the Griz can use him as trade bait to get 2 picks later in the draft or an extra player instead of just 1 overrated rookie (Greene).

Posted by starforce on June 26, 2008 at 11:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I now see why Boston could never do much with Chris Wallace running the show. Why oh why did the Grizzlies hire this idiot!

The Tide begins to turn . . .

Posted by krc00d on June 26, 2008 at 11:30 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Darrell Arthur is on the way to Memphis in exchange for Greene and a 2nd round pick next year. Given he was rated much higher than Greene on most charts, he could be a steal for the Grizzlies.

Posted by l_cbrown on June 26, 2008 at 11:44 p.m. (Suggest removal)
ESPN just reported OJ, Antione Walker to Memphis for Love, Miller, Cardinal

Posted by Memphis_Hotboy36 on June 26, 2008 at 11:45 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
ESPN just reported that we traded Kevin Love, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins to Minnesota for OJ Mayo, Marco Jarric (sp), Greg Buckner and Antonie Walker...not sure if I like this deal or not!

Kool-Aid Time . . . Jump for Joy

Posted by l_cbrown on June 26, 2008 at 11:46 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
Future best backcourt in the league

Posted by krc00d on June 26, 2008 at 11:46 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
Grizzlies have traded Kevin Love, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Jason Collins to the Timberwolves for OJ Mayo, Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, and Greg Buckner.

Posted by xds4life on June 26, 2008 at 11:49 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
O.J. Mayo!!!!

Posted by l_cbrown on June 27, 2008 at midnight (Suggest removal)
Awesome trade, Cardinal's (what is it 9mill salary is gone) and they get a future Allstar in Mayo.....and yes he will be an Allstar!!!!!!

Posted by XYZMemphis on June 27, 2008 at 1:15 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Chris Wallace proved his expertise with this trade. Are all the morons out there still trying to wake up and smell the coffee! Starting line up of Conley, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Darrell Arthur and Darko/Marc Gasol. Plus the 6th Man of the Year with Hakeem off the bench for instant buckets.
Remember, people, O.J. plays some hard-nosed defense, too. I am SOOO glad to get rid of Miller, who freezes up in the playoffs. Ha-ha, Minnesota, did you not know that? Oh, well, you won't be in the playoffs before the Grizzlies anyway!
We won't make the playoffs next year, but only because we will be so ridiculously young. But we will be exciting to watch and by the end of the year we will be beating a lot of playoff-bound teams! GIve this nucleus two or three years, plugging holes along the way, and we will finally win a playoff game and even a playoff series!

Posted by karma8 on June 27, 2008 at 7:13 a.m. (Suggest removal)
OMG!!! YESSSSSSS!!!! CW you're a genius!!!! Great great Deal!!!! Dude you rock!!! Mayo!! I cant believe it!! And they got rid to the albatross, Cardinal!!!!! Yes!!!!!!

More Drama coming?

Posted by Stbrjones on June 27, 2008 at 7:29 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I bet this isnt the end, I see a trade with Mayo going to Miami for Beasley.
Be on the lookout for it to happen any moment

Sorry if that was a bit long for you, but I was incredibly entertained.

More to come on the trade specifics later. But right now, a big kudos to Chris Wallace for taking a great chance on some talent. As I said in earlier posts, the Grizz have two major problems - a need for a perimeter player and defender to compliment Rudy Gay - and a power forward rebounder. I think we addressed both in OJ Mayo and Darrell Arthur.

And yes, there is a chance the Grizz will trade Mayo to Miami for Beasley. I don't know how much of a chance, but I'm sure they are talking/have talked. So stay tuned . . .

Greene Gay Love

Get your mind out of the gutter. The Grizzlies have strapped their short term future to the back of Gay - Love, the most deadly combination of talent since George Michael and Boy George toured the world in the summer of '88. The Grizzlies drafted Kevin Love with the #5 pick, and German born Donte Greene from Syracuse with the #27 pick. Check out their profiles in the attached links.

I feel disappointed somewhat, although the Grizzlies appeared to have gotten who they wanted all along. From day 1, the word was Grizzlies would get Kevin Love. After about 50 trade rumors, 7 mock drafts by Chad Ford, 4 blog posts by yours truly, hours of sports talk radio debate, and lots of rambling emails between my friends and myself, the result is simply where we started - Kevin Love.

There will be many Grizzlies fans that are disappointed in this pick. Many will be informed and intelligent supporters. Others will be ignorant Tiger fans that will take out their bitterness on Kevin Love. To the haters, I say this: lets let these kids prove it on the court. Lets give them a chance. I am not going to waste energy on what doesn't matter. The picks have been made, the outcome is yet to be determined. Here are 5 big reasons why Memphis Grizzlies fans should be excited about the two incoming 6 foot 9inch 20 year olds:

• 6 ft 9 guys that can shoot 3s never hurt an offense - Both guys shot 35% from beyond the arc. Green will play 3, while Love will play more 4. Each will have opportunities to shoot over much smaller or slower opponents. Big guys that can shoot = versatility = dynamic = more offensive options.
  
• Donte Greene has been compared to Rashard Lewis. Kevin Love has been compared to Kevin McHale. Both are very legitimate and hopefully accurate analogies.
  
• Kevin Love has good basketball instincts - Sometimes athleticism and measurables are overrated when faced with ball handling, shooting, and passing skills. The ability to put a good pump or head fake on a defender is just as effective as blowing by the guy with speed and quickness. Kevin Love has great instincts for pass fakes, pump fakes, and lots of other "tricks" to get his defender off balance or to create an opening. Love is just like CDR - unorthodox but just plain productive. Basketball fans will appreciate a great pass fake then backdoor alley-oop to Rudy. Thats pure Kevin Love.
• Donte Greene has athleticism - Athleticism is not overrated when you are simply faster, taller, quicker, and bigger, creating a mismatch. Donte Greene has the ability to be that mismatch at some point. 6 foot 9 guys that can create shots off the dribble and shoot the 3 do not come around often. I see him as a solid backup to Rudy Gay, and possibly another asset we can develop and maybe trade.
  
• The most important reason - Kevin Love wants to be a Grizzlie. How refreshing is that? Knowing that our city is more renown for murder and losing than our basketball team gets old. Hearing about players not coming to workouts for the Grizzlies or not wanting to play here gets old too. This kid was genuinely excited when he was drafted - and I believe he wants to bring excitement, passion, and winning attitude with him to Memphis full bore.
  

Just like I said previously in my Pau Gasol Trade Justification post, things cant be judged immediately. Tomorrow morning there will be grades all over the internet rating the Grizzlies as solid or whatever. The real grade occurs 3 years from now. Lets get our butts in the stands and give these kids a chance. I'm hopeful that Kevin Love will be the Anti-Pau - energetic, a rebounder, a good passer, and most importantly - a winner. More notes on the draft tomorrow.

Draft Day

"And now, with the 5th pick in the NBA Draft . . . there has been a trade. The Memphis Grizzlies have traded the 5th pick, along with Mike Miller and Kyle Lowery, to the Miami Heat for the rights to Michael Beasley"

How awesome would that be? More tomorrow once we process what actually went down.

Who said trouble?

In my most recent post last Friday, I was pulling a Randy Quaid on the Cardinals road trip to Fenway this past weekend. After getting swept by the Royals at home, and having 4 key players on the DL, I figured a trip to Fenway would send us reeling. Instead, we won 2 out of 3 in dominating fashion, and took the third game into extra innings, before losing in the bottom of the 13th. This team will just not give up and has yet to stop surprising everyone.

The Cardinals currently sit at 3.5 games back in the Central, with the 2nd best record in the National League, 5th best in all of baseball. The Cubs are still winning to of course, as they swept the cross town Chicago White Sox this past weekend. As I have mentioned before, the Cards and Cubs have lots of big series in late August that will determine the division crown. The Cardinals just need to hang in there and stay within striking distance, and then see what happens. Certainly the Cubs cannot continue all summer at this pace. Zambrano and Soriano are hurt, so maybe they are coming back down to earth.

Interesting Tribune article about the Cubs having success with former Cardinals. I praised the day we got rid of Jim Edmonds, because he is just too old to be effective and stay healthy. Sticking with the theme of the Cardinals season, Jimmy is proving me wrong, at least so far in Chicago. Getting younger and developing minor league talent has been a huge organizational goal since the Cardinals won the World Series in 2006. An overview of a few of the Cardinals top prospects is here, including a few Memphis Redbirds players.

Developing talent through the farm system is not only the best way to get young players, but also the best way to get cheap players. In baseball, players have no ability to be a free agent until they have given 6 years of service. If you draft well, then develop well, you can have 3 years or so of super cheap production. Ryan Ludwick, for instance, makes $411,000 this season . . . yet he is batting .300, with 16 home runs and 57 RBI, putting him easily as one of the top 5 outfielders in the national league, production wise, so far this year. He cannot sign with another team I believe for one more year. There certainly won't be many players with that much value, but at least 2 or 3 on your team at all times is definitely needed to win a championship.

The Cards won last night in Detroit, again in dominating fashion, 8-4. Next weekend, the Cards host the Cubs in a big July 4th series. With Pujols coming back, it would be nice to take advantage, since the Cubs may still have Zambrano and Soriano out. Lets go Cards

Trouble in St. Louis

The St. Louis Cardinals are definitely in trouble. After getting swept this week by the Kansas City Royals, the Cards head up to unfriendly Fenway Park to Boston for a 3 game set this weekend. With all the injuries that the Cardinals are dealing with (Wellemeyer, Pujols, Molina, Brad Thompson, Carpenter), the lack of depth and lack of starting pitching is beginning to show. Somehow, the Cardinals are tied with Philadelphia for the 2nd best record in the National League, at 42-32, luckily sitting only 3.5 games behind the Cubs, who were swept by Tampa Bay this week as well.

The Cardinals need to grind out a few wins and try to play at least .500 ball for the next two weeks. All season they have been consistently winning 2/3 in nearly every series, until this week's sweep by the lowly Royals. Every team hits a rough patch over a 162 game stretch, but its avoiding the prolonged bad run that separates good teams from bad.

There is a feeling that this team has played over its head so far this year, and might be regressing a bit. Injuries make it difficult to determine if the Cardinals slide is related to injuries or simply baseball's law of averages catching up to a team playing too well. Likely its a bit of both. The Cardinals have surprised me all year, because they seem to get going when the going get tough, as they say. I hope I continue to be surprised.

As I said recently, the Cardinals have a big July 4th series with the Cubs. This will be important, because the two teams won't meet again until a bevy of games in late August and early September. Pujols hopefully will be back by that series. Molina and some of the pitchers should be back this weekend or early next week from the DL. If the Cardinals can just stay within striking distance, the season will be much more entertaining come late August.

Notre Dame & NBC Extend TV Deal thru 2015

Today the announcement came that Notre Dame Football will continue to have its home games exclusively televised by NBC through 2015. The current deal expired in 2010. As of right now, there are no internet articles available since the press release occurred about 45 minutes ago. But here is a link to the official press release document that I received via email.

Some people suggested that NBC would not renew the deal unless Notre Dame starts winning, especially considering this past season. Obviously those skeptics were wrong. Extending a deal like this is great for the school and the fans for lots of reasons. Here are the most important reasons why this deal is good for Notre Dame, in order of importance:

1. Leverage with the BCS, and other conferences - Most of the major conferences resent Notre Dame's unique independence in football. Should the Irish lose their exclusive television deal, many would argue this would weaken their position at the bargaining table of the college football world. Most conferences and athletic directors know that Notre Dame is good for college football, thus the reason for giving them the special, unique clause in the BCS contracts. A weakened Notre Dame might give the BCS and college AD's the ability to force Notre Dame into a conference to be in competition for BCS or other bowl games. Keeping a strong program, both on the field but especially financially, will give us the freedom to remain independent, and likely be a part of any new BCS or college playoff systems.



2. Exposure for recruiting - How many coaches can tell someone's family that their son will be on national TV guaranteed 8 times a year, no matter what the opponent? (note: the deal with NBC is for 8 games a year - 7 home games, and then 1 neutral site game like San Antonio in 2009 vs Washington State - this is all a part of the new scheuling trend of 7-4-1 home/road/neutral). Most years all 12 games are on national tv, including ABC, CBS, or ESPN for road games. Since we recruit nationally, TV is important to bridge the distance gap we face when recruiting in Florida, California, etc., because parents and family can watch their son play on nearly any given weekend with ease.



3. Availability to fans - this is very important, and even more so for Notre Dame than any other school. Notre Dame's national fanbase negates any regional telecasts or regional networks, like the Big 10 and other conferences have/are attempting to creat. Since I live in Tennessee (aka SEC country), having the Irish fixed to NBC is great news, as SEC teams would likely replace the Irish if it were the local networks choice or regional broadcasts. Having a national network broadcast at least 8 games makes it so much easier to watch and follow the Irish, no matter where you are.



4. Financial security - tied closely to #1 reason above, the NBC contract means guaranteed revenue. This allows our entire athletic department to budget and plan better, knowing what TV revenue we will have through the year 2015. In a time when all the major conferences are scrambling to get their own TV network for sports (i.e. the Big Ten Network), Notre Dame continues to carve out its TV spot like the rest of the BCS conferences. The purposes of Big 10 Network and Notre Dame's NBC TV deal are the same - to control your own TV rights, guaranteeing yourself the proper exposure. The success of the Big 10 Network and the Notre Dame deal with NBC will continue to push all conferences to gain a further TV prescence than just the big games.

Obviously this is extra surprising given the horrendous 2007 season, the losingest in ND history at 3 wins and 9 losses. Word is that things are looking up for the 2008 Irish, mostly because of a) its summer b) the schedule is 2-3 games easier and c) those true freshman cant get any worse, so they have to be better in 2008 right? Lets go Irish fans, drink the Kool-Aid with me . . .

ND Tidbits

A few interesting items in the news regarding Notre Dame football over the past few weeks.

• Chris Zorich returns to ND in an Athletic Department role. He was a poster child of the Lou Holtz era, and is very popular around the Chicago area. Always good news.


• Not only is yours truly drinking the Kool-aid, thinking the Irish will have a good 2008 - so is one Irish assistant coach (Bernie Parmalee, pictured). His comments are vague, but entertaining for me to hear. Look for the Irish record to improve slightly, while their competitiveness and intensity improve dramatically.


• Notre Dame football team's cumulative GPA was once again over 3.0, for an unprecedented 6th straight semester. I've been an athlete at Notre Dame, and I know: there are no joke majors. There is tons of support and study sessions that athletes are required to attend, however. Even though I was a 4.0 high school student, I had to attend counseling sessions, study halls, and all other sorts of meetings to make sure that I was in fact succeeding academically. Kudos to Weis and the Athletic Academic staff and support team for doing it the right way.


• Very very quiet on the search for an Athletic Director. Impressively quiet. There have been some names floating around, in particular Steve Orsini (pictured) of SMU, who is reportedly a qualified and interested candidate. In addition, Bubba Cunningham and Joe Castiglione, AD's currently at Tulsa and Oklahoma, have been mentioned as possible candidates. We really don't know who, if anyone, has officially been contacted. And we don't have a timetable for a decision. I would assume in the next month, but who knows.


• Freshman arrived on campus this past Monday for summer school and essentially the beginning of their tenure as Irish freshman. The #2 ranked recruiting class in the country will be very important to the next few seasons, so hopefully they get started on the right foot. They have all been assigned numbers, covered in this article where the history of every number is mentioned. Pretty cool stuff. My favorite is that there will be 2 freshman wearing the #9, Tommy Zbikowski's old number. Both Kyle Rudolph (Freshman, speedy tight end from Cinncinnati) as well as Ethan Johnson (pictured, Freshman, absolute stud defensive end from Oregon) will be donning the great #9. Those 2 are easily 2 of our top 5 recruits signed last year, if not our top 2. Also interestingly, is that California QB Dayne Crist will be wearing good ole #10, last worn by this guy . . .
  
  


• Interesting take on Notre Dame and the BCS, conference situation in the Orlando newspaper. I agree, ND needs to win to maintain the power that it has at the table. More importantly, we need an Athletic Director that will continue to lead in a way that is best for ND and our independence, as well as meshing with current college football conferences.

NBA Draft: 8 days & counting . . .

The NBA Draft approaches next Thursday, June 26th. Players have pulled out of the draft and the field is now set. What will the Grizz do with the 5th and 28th picks? Here is a plan and simple layout of what to look for.

In a previous post, I discussed how a trade to Miami for Beasley is a possibility, but seemingly only if we can draft OJ Mayo at #5. Word out of Miami is that OJ Mayo is who they really want, and they would be interested in trading with whomever drafts him. Miami knows Beasley is the 2nd most coveted player in the draft, and thus not drafting him at their #2 spot would be leaving value on the table. The ideal scenario for the Grizz is to have OJ Mayo available at #5.

It looks more and more like Minnesota, who picks at #3, will take Mayo, at least according to Chad Ford's new mock draft 5.0. Yes, there has been chatter about Minnesota GM Kevin McHale loving his tall white brethren Kevin Love. I think the Love to Minnesota talk is a smokescreen, and Minnesota will take Mayo. Most of the opinions coming out at this point are intentional leaks intended to manipulate trades in some form or fashion. Additionally I think its clear that Mayo is the #3 player in the draft, and that Minnesota will take the best player available rather than filling a more pressing need.

So lets simplify the draft - we assume Rose and Beasley are going #1 and #2. Then we are assuming, although hoping not, that OJ Mayo is selected at #3 by the Timberwolves. Seattle at #4 has been eying Bayless as they need a PG desperately, so there really hasn't been much talk about whom they will pick. That leaves the Grizz at #5. Here are really the only logical options:

• Kevin Love (UCLA)


• Eric Gordon (Indiana)


• Danilo Gallinari (Italy) - pictured
  
• Anthony Randolph (LSU)
  
• Brook Lopez (Stanford)

You can read profiles on these players in Ford's mock draft, and I'm certainly no scout. Ive also linked all the players above and below to their draft profile on NBA Draft net.

At the Grizzlies second 1st round pick (at #28), here are some players that have been mentioned. I'm sure there are plenty of other names out there, as its hard to predict who will be on the board at #28, unlike #5:

• Courtney Lee (Western Kentucky)


• Bill Walker (Kansas State) (note - coming off knee injury)


• Chris Douglas Roberts (Memphis)
  
• Joey Dorsey (Memphis)
  
• DJ White (Indiana)
  
• JJ Hickson (NC State) (pictured)
  

The Grizzlies have two major needs in my opinion, and they are both equally important:

1. Perimeter guard/small forward player that can defend, and be an offensive threat to take some pressure off Rudy Gay.


2. Interior toughness, aka rebounding and defense. Any offense down low is a bonus.

Now lets play GM. One key ingredient to picking at #5 is knowing what you can get with your later picks. Why pick a PF if there are many that will be available later, with minimal dropoff? Simple supply and demand. Rating all the players in the draft, to assess all of your picks from one vantage point, is the key to a balanced draft. So we've seen the available players and the team needs. Now lets try to envision draft scenarios for the Grizz, while trying to assess the dropoff from whats available at #5 to #28 (again, assuming Mayo is gone):

Scenario 1 - Draft Kevin Love at #5, then get a perimeter guy at #28, either Courtney Lee or CDR.

Scenario 2 - Draft Eric Gordon at #5, then DJ White, Hickson, or Dorsey at #28.

Scenario 3 - Draft Brook Lopez at #5, then the best of the PFs in scenario #2 available at #28

Which scenario is more likely? Hard to say. I think Kevin Love is the likely pick for the Grizz at #5, based on the early and continued buzz. However, I don't think perimeter players Lee or CDR will be available for the Grizz at #28, really forcing the Grizz to draft another power forward. Given that wing and perimeter impact players are not going to be available come the 2nd pick, I think we must address the perimeter need at #5 then get one of many decent power forwards that will be available at #28.

To me, its simple - the value of perimeter help is higher in this year's draft, due to the scarcity of perimeter impact players and the abundance of power forward and center help.

Given the cards the Grizz have, with Mayo gone at #3 and perimeter help being scarce late in the 1st round, I would draft Eric Gordon at #5, and DJ White at #28. Gordon is a great athlete that can drive and shoot, while DJ White epitomizes toughness in the middle. Both have much to prove, but I think they would be hungry to work hard in Memphis. There are plenty of Hoosier fans that would enjoy that as well.

Chris Wallace is a smart guy, and he has done this many times before. Certainly things are not as simple as I propose. In the NFL, where every team has multiple picks, finding value in each round is the name of the game. Hopefully the Grizz will do the same, really figuring out what they can pick at #28 before they decide on whom to pick at #5.

The Cardinals just lost 20-2. I'm on vacation - but hearing a score like that makes me feel like I'm in another universe. Please Lord, let the Cubs lose once, please.

Elliot Pope 901-848-5599
elliotpope@gmail.com

Grizz Draft Update

There has been a lot of talk and rumors surrounding the top few draft picks in the NBA draft in about two weeks. Players are starting to work out individually with teams, so there are more people watching these guys and then speculating. Here is what has been going on regarding the Grizzlies pick at #5:

• Trade talk to move up to #2 with Miami for Michael Beasley. This has been rumored in numerous reports, such as here and here. All of the rumors and reports are based on the following expectations: a) The Heat don't really love Beasley and b) The Heat like OJ Mayo. They recognize Beasley is the value pick at #2, since they will likely miss out on their prize talent, Derrick Rose. They could look to draft Beasley and trade down, likely only if they can get OJ Mayo, whom many think would fit nicely with Dwayne Wade as a combo guard. The teams picking at #3 and #4 (Minnesota & Seattle) don't really have pieces to trade, however. The team at #5 does have some tradeable pieces, as well as a desperate need for a power forward like Beasley - the Grizzlies. Mike Miller and Javaris Crittenton or Kyle Lowery, along with swapping picks, has been one trade scenario. Genius Geoff Calkins even wrote about this scenario as if he thought it up. There is also talk from Iavaroni and Wallace that seems to indicate Mike Miller is not tradeable. My take is where there's smoke, there's fire. If there is a trade, we won't know until during the draft, once the Grizzlies pick comes available. The Heat don't do this deal unless they know OJ Mayo is available at #5. So for our best interest (whether we want him or not), the Grizz should root for the Timberwolves to draft Brook Lopez, and Seattle to draft Jerryed Bayless ahead of the Grizz, leaving OJ Mayo available at #5. A trade with Miami would be awesome for the Grizz, even if we lost Mike Miller and Lowry/Crittenton, because it would give us a young power forward that I think is special, in Michael Beasley.


• Kevin Love speculation. Kevin Love worked out for the Grizz on Monday of this week, and reportedly performed well. In the most recent mock draft on ESPN, our dream trade with Miami is foiled as OJ Mayo is selected to be drafted by Minnesota at #3, leaving the Grizz to draft Kevin Love at #5. Its very in vogue to hate on Kevin Love, because he is an undersized power forward that is not very athletic, and because Memphis beat him up pretty good in the final four. However, Love can shoot better than any big man in the draft in probably 4 or 5 years. He is young, apparently with a high basketball IQ that allows him to pass exceptionally well, and even play solid defense. That being said, I don't think it would excite too many Grizz fans to draft Love. Here is my revised order of who I would like to draft at #5, assuming that we are not going to trade the pick, and that Rose & Beasley are off the board:
  
  
  
  
  
  Obviously, the Grizz need a force at power forward that won't be there with Beasley gone. Next need for me is a dynamic scorer that can shoot and play opposite Rudy Gay. With Beasley gone, I think Mayo or Gordon could fulfill that role. Gordon tested out fantastically in Orlando at the Draft Camp on the physical skills/measurements [check out this link - its a sortable stat list based on all the measurements of draftees - height, weight, wingspan, 3/4 court sprint, vertical, etc - really interesting] , and lets not forget before his injury late in the season, he was considered a top 3 pick at worst. Gordon slid late in the year as things slid at Indiana, so I'm betting on him performing like he did early in the year and in high school. After those two, I think Kevin Love is the safest option. Why? He can shoot the 3, as well as the mid range jumper, which combined with his size, passing ability, and basketball IQ, could make him a very (very) poor man's Dirk Nowitzki. Not just because he is big and white, but I think he can create offense just by stretching the big men on defense, and then making well timed passes or shots. If we don't get Mayo, Gordon, Love, or (hopefully) Beasley in a trade, then I will be officially disappointed. This wish list has changed a bit since my first one, but that's because there is more information available to non-front office folk like myself.


• Heisley expressing doubt about the Pau trade. Many referenced this article in which Mike Heisley, team owner, expresses some doubt about whether the Gasol trade was the right move. Much has been written about his comments, and his later clarification. Wallace also defended the trade in the Boston Newspaper. The only thing you need to read is my previous post, detailing the trade, and calling for judgement on the merits of the trade at a later date. We'll see in a few years.


• Dorsey also looked good in the workout with Kevin Love, as mentioned in the article above(also linked here). Wouldn't that be fun for Memphians to get Joey Dorsey, assuming our draft board worked out to where he was not a reach with our pick at #28? He would give some good minutes in the paint off the bench, and could be a sparkplug-defender specialist (yes I just invented that term).

We'll see how the next week of workouts and speculation goes. Any trades won't occur until during the draft, once picks have been revealed. I think there may be a trade with Miami, but only if OJ Mayo is available for the Grizz to draft at #5. So if you are unsure what to root for in the upcoming draft in 2 weeks, root that OJ Mayo is available for either our team or a trade.

Cardinals Tidbits

The Cardinals sit at 38-27, second place (2.5 games back) in the NL Central to the Cubs, who sit at 40-24, tops in the MLB. The Cardinals record also puts them tied for the 6th best record in all of baseball. Not a bad start at all. Some Cardinals tidbits for ya:

• The Cardinals had some transactional movement in the past week, calling up young Joe Mather (pictured) from Memphis (AAA), and sending down slugger Chris Duncan, a fixture for the Cardinals since late 2006. Mather had been batting over .300 with some power at Memphis, and seems to be ready at 25 years of age. Duncan initially provided some much needed pop to the lineup starting in late 2006, hitting 22 and 21 HRs in '06 and '07. However, his inability to be effective against lefties, combined with his sluggish outfield play and very long slump to start 2008, made this move inevitable. Last week, in a dramatic loss to the Nationals, Mather hit his first career home run, breaking up a tie in the 10th inning. Unfortunately his was a solo blast, and we gave up a 2 run shot to end the game. Speaking of that game, the Cards also pitched new callup Mark Worrell (also from Memphis) for 2 innings. Not only did he pitch two scoreless, but in his first big league at bat, he hit a 3-run HR. Great start for the two Redbirds I watched in person two weeks ago.



• Todd Wellemeyer continues to impress, winning National League Pitcher of the Month for May. As you can see in the article, homeboy was 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA in May - not bad. Nicknamed "the Colonel", Todd has been the most consistent pitcher of late. It will take a long season of consistent production from pitchers like Todd for the Cardinals to make any noise in the playoffs.



• Injury bug has officially struck. Just as soon as Wellemeyer wins the player of the month award, he has a sore elbow and misses a start. Pujols has a calf injury that has sidelined him a bit, while Ankiel has missed some time with a sore knee. To top it all off, our #1 starter Adam Wainwright was put on the DL this week with a sprained finger. Hopefully Wellemeyer can come back this week and pitch, although that's up in the air. The guys over at Viva le Birdos (Cardinals blog) think that Wellemeyer's just being in his second year as a starter is a major part of his injury. They seem to question whether he can keep logging starter innings without the experience of doing it healthy for a full season.



• MLB Draft was last week - Cardinals selected Arizona St 3B Brett Wallace, a pure power hitter. Overall the Cardinals used 51 draft picks (!) to take 27 pitchers and 24 position players. Good recap of it here. Many think the draft is not as big a deal, but they are wrong. Teams like the Devil Rays are a perfect example. At the minimum, you need young talent to make trades in baseball. But also you need homegrown talent brought up for cheap $$ through your farm system. Remember, a player's first 6 years in professional baseball, they are essentially at the mercy of the team. If those guys develop in 2 or 3 years, then you have some cheap talent on the big league club for a 3 years or so. I'm hoping we can get some young infielders especially, as well as more power bats, to develop through our farm system. Our top pick satisfied both, so hopefully we'll see Wallace in a few short years.

These next two weeks will be interesting for the Cardinals, and will largely reveal if they are in fact "for real". Many skeptics out there doubt the Cardinals due to the lack of power in their bats, as well as starting pitching that many think has over performed. The Cards are at Cincinnati for 3, then back home to face the 1st place Phillies and cross state rival the Royals. Hopefully the Cardinals can keep their pace of winning at least 2 games in their last 7 series.

Looking way way ahead, the Cardinals have two series with the Cubs in the first week and a half of September. I imagine that will be when the division winner is finally settled. At least I hope we can hang with the Cubs until then. Likely we will, largely because the Cubs just cant keep winning at this pace, especially with a tough road and inter league schedule coming up.

Passing Optimism

In yesterday's post about Jeff Fisher's offenses during his Titans tenure, I concluded that Jeff Fisher teams do not need to be anything but average in the passing game to succeed. After finishing 27th in the league in passing offense, many expected the Titans to make a big splash and sign a free agent or draft a WR with a high pick in the draft. The Titans did neither, but definitely have made some changes that will affect the passing game.

1. Mike Heimerdinger - new offensive coordinator. After being the offensive coordinator for the Titans from 2000-2004, Mike left to take the same role with the New York Jets in 2005, joining a sinking ship in Herman Edwards last season. For 2006-2007, he was offensive coordinator in Denver with his college roommate Mike Shanahan. When the Titans fired Norm Chow after last season, Heimerdinger was the only candidate they discussed, hiring him within 3 days of Chow's departure. During his first stint as Titans O'Coordinator, the Titans offense never finished below 15th in the league in total points. During this time, Steve McNair went from good to great, eventually claiming MVP of the NFL in 2003. The Titans made the playoffs 3 of the 5 years he was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee. Look for Heimerdinger to use Vince Young's legs more, to use more shotgun sets (all VY did at Texas was shotgun),



2. Wide Receiver personnel moves. Yes, there were a few. The Titans signed former Titan Justin McCareins, who played the last 4 seasons for the New York Jets. His best year with the Titans was 2003, when he snagged 47 receptions for 800 yards and 7 TDs in McNair's MVP year. He had a similar year in 2004 with the Jets, but then diminished each of the next 3 seasons before being cut. The Titans signed him to a 1 year deal, and are hoping his experience, particularly as a slot WR, will help VY and the other WRs improve. Additionally, the Titans re-signed their leading wideout from 2007, Justin Gage (pictured). The 6 foot 4 Gage had a big year with 55 catches in 2007, very impressive considering the Titans passing offense was 27th in the league. Gage is a tall guy with very good hands and route running skills, certainly entering his prime. If McCareins can be a steadying go to guy in the slot, allowing Gage to go deep a bit more, the Titans will definitely be tougher to contend with from the WR spot. Here is how the WR depth chart looks right now, best guess:
   












Definitely some optimism right now in Titans mini-camps, as well as on former top 10 pick Mike Williams from USC. Mike Williams has been criticized for a lack of work ethic, as well as being overweight. Supposedly he is "recommitted" and has lost weight - we'll see (he went to USC). If Williams can contribute while the other young WRs keep maturing, we could definitely see a big jump in production even though our WR core is unchanged. Granted, some websites only think the Titans have 1 WR in the top 50 in the NFL (Roydell Williams at #47).









3. Expanded backfield - The Titans now have a stable of Running Backs, each with different skill sets. On first glance, we have the "track stars", rookie Chris Johnson (in 2008 combine ran a 4.24 40 yard dash) and 2nd year player Chris Henry (ran a 4.33 40 yard dash at 2007 combine). Then there's the proverbial "thunder" of Titans leading rusher Lendale White. As a rookie, Chris Henry only played in 7 games, due in part to a 4 game drug suspension for marijuana use. Hopefully reefer boy sees the competition around him and will respond. He has size (6 foot 2, 230 pounds) and speed, and has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield (6 catches in minimal action last year). Expect improvement for the 2nd year player out of Arizona. As for Chris Johnson, first thing you see is speed. Undersized at 5 foot 11, 200 pounds, this cat had quite the productive career at East Carolina. He averaged 37 receptions a year in college, as well as a stout 4.5 yards per carry. He was great in the return game also, versatility that will make him immediately helpful to the Titans. Lendale White had a solid year in 2007, leading the team in carries (304) and yards (1110). ESPN did a top 20 RB ranking for the NFL, and the 23 year old Lendale didn't crack it, despite finishing 12th in the league in rushing in 2007. An improving running game should open up the passing game for Vince and the Titans. Look for Heimerdinger to use more dual back sets, more shotgun looks for Vince, and more short passing plays specifically for running backs.

Of course, the single biggest factor to offensive improvement is Vince Young. Production fell way off for Vince in '07, after a Pro Bowl (alternate) year and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2006. Many say this decline was simply defenses catching up to Vince's game. Certainly that had a part to do with it. Norm Chow, the former offensive coordinator, is known for running his west coast offense without regard to a skilled, mobile QB like Vince. Word is their relationship was not the best, as it was well known that Chow wanted the Titans to draft Matt Leinart instead of Vince Young at #3 in the 2006 NFL draft.

Hopefully the guidance of the experienced and fresh offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, as well as general maturation of Vince Young and the Titans WR/RB core, will all combine to improve the Titans offense. Look for a very solid season by Vince Young and the Titans, particulary in the passing game.

Fisher-Ball

(spreadsheets mentioned in post may not be viewable in email or RSS versions of this post - click the link in those spots, or view the blog site by clicking on the header picture in the email / RSS feed)

Sounds like Vegas money is against the Titans making another playoff appearance in 2008, with odds as the #19 team most likely to win the Super Bowl. Coming off a 10-6 season in 2007, earning a spot as a wild card in the playoffs, many think the young core of the Titans will only improve. Obviously not Vegas.

Most that doubt the Titans point to most glaring weakness on the team - passing offense. Vince Young had a subpar year certainly in 2007. The most surprising thing to many is that the Titans haven't seemed to try and upgrade their passing offense, particularly wide receivers. Despite having a passing offense that finished 27th overall in the league in 2007, the Titans signed no big names at wide out, and did not draft any WRs in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft. Why? Jeff Fisher has shown throughout his career that he doesn't need a top flight passing game or elite WRs to win in the NFL.

Some quick Jeff Fisher facts:

• Born in LA; played college ball for USC (not everyone is perfect)


• Played as a Defensive Back in the NFL, mostly a special teamer


• Background is defense, most of which was learned under Buddy Ryan, whom he played for and coached under


• Named to first head coaching job during the 1994 season, as coach of the Houston Oilers


• Still coach of the same franchise, entering his 14th season (longest tenured coach in NFL, 2nd longest in American pro sports, I believe to only Jerry Sloan of the Utah Jazz [1988])

Jeff Fisher's best teams were defensively strong teams. He's also had some good offensive teams, particularly with Steve McNair at the helm. Here are the seasons that Jeff Fisher's Titans made the playoffs, along with some defensive and passing stats (league ranks based on yards):

The 1999 team went to the Super Bowl, the famous "Music City Miracle" year. The 2000 team was easily the best team Fisher had, tops in the league in defense. Unfortunately that team lost to the Ravens in an ugly playoff game, despite being arguably the league's top team that year. 2002 ended with a lopsided loss in the AFC Championship to the Raiders, and 2003 was a close loss in the divisional round to the Patriots. In 2007, the Chargers sent us packing quickly. So in ranking these teams, I would put them in order of best to worst like this: 2000, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2007.

The common trait on good Jeff Fisher teams is easy to point out - they play defense, and have balance on offense. The passing game doesn't need to be great for Jeff Fisher to have a playoff team. Fisher teams have finished in the top 10 in the league in passing only 3 times (2001, 2003, and 2005). Only 1 of those teams - the 2003 team - went to the playoffs. That year Steve McNair won the MVP of the League, and you can tell that the running game was secondary.

Talk about a telling stat here in the spreadsheet below. Yes, you can argue against the use of attempts as a justifying stat, especially given the late game offense of winning teams being to run the ball. But this is interesting (league ranks):

Maybe this is why the Titans used their first round draft pick to take a RB in 2008 (Chris Johnson), after taking a running back in the 2nd round in both 2006 (Lendale White) and 2007 (Chris Henry). Jeff Fisher knows that running the ball and defense are more important factors to the Titans' winning than passing offense is.

The passing game issues need to be addressed, as 27th in the league just won't cut it. But improving from 27th to 15th (where I think the Titans can really do some damage if the running game and defense remain steady) is not such a leap as many pundits think it is. The next post tomorrow will have a profile of the Titans WR core, which I think will be much improved. I think you'll be surprised this next season at how much production the Titans get from the 11 WRs currently on the roster.