Josh Smith, Grizzlie for a day

I have yet to comment on the almost signing of Josh Smith. Its been 3 weeks, and so forgive my tardiness. Traveling to Vegas and then to Switzerland has been hard on my blogging.

On the Smith deal, you can read the basic details in the article here, but the jist of the story is that the Grizz signed the restricted free agent Atlanta Hawk to a straightforward 5 year, $58M deal. The Hawks had the right to match any offer, and they did match this offer, locking Smith up the same day the Grizzlies' offer came to them.

Without a doubt, Josh Smith would have addressed the Grizzlies' biggest needs. He is an interior presence on the boards, on defense, and athletic enough on offense to draw attention from our perimeter core players. He is only 22, and would be perfect long term for the Grizzlies. Josh Smith, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, and Mark Gasol? That is a decent lineup that can get any fan excited.

Heisley and Wallace and just about everyone else knows that Josh Smith is a good young player that would have fit our team's needs. That's obvious. Everything comes down to money though, not his abilities. What $$ amount is Josh Smith worth? This is the key question in any player signing, but particularly in this game of poker between Atlanta and Memphis. If we offered too little, Atlanta would call and they have the better hand in that they can match any offer. If we offered Smith too much, Atlanta would fold, leaving us with an enormous paycheck for Smith.

Using the thinking behind the poker analogy, the question of signing Smith becomes a dual one. Not only how much is Smith worth $$ wise, but also how much will Atlanta match? By all accounts, Josh Smith was Atlanta's top priority. They publicly said they would match any offer that he signed with another team. So lets develop a market for Josh Smith, and then go through the thinking of how much the Grizz should offer Smith.

Step by step:

• Smith rejected a 5 year, $45M deal from the Hawks during the season. Given the playoff run and his play down the stretch, this is the absolute basement for any offer. In reality his value is above this level.
• There were talks, rumors of Atlanta and Smith looking to get a deal done with 6 years, $60M. So to me, $10M becomes a standard offer that Atlanta would automatically match if any team signed him, unless there were some funky clauses in the contract.
• The Grizz cap space could hold about $14M for next year, give or take some. Certainly we wouldn't want to use it all on one player. Also, we don't want to pay cap penalties for going over, as financially this would not be a sound decision for a team from a smaller market. In reality, my guess at the absolute best mathematical offer we could have made under the cap would have been about $12.5M per year, 5 years, making that about $62.5M. This is the ceiling.
• Atlanta had some cap pressure, given that they have to keep paying Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby who are signed to big deals. However, Atlanta's ability to sign a restricted free agent for millions more than other teams, without cap restrictions, was a huge trump card. The "Larry Bird Rule" makes it easier for a team that has held the service of a player for 5 years or since he was drafted to keep the player when other teams want to sign the free agent. Atlanta could have likely easily afforded and matched anything that we would have offered.

We offered him 5 years, $58M, which rounds out to $11.6M per year. I think that's a fair offer, but one that was too easy for Atlanta to match. I would have offered Smith a maximum of $12.5M per over 4 or 5 years. Given the fact that Atlanta likely would have matched anything up to $14 or $15M possibly, there was little chance that we could ever land Josh Smith, so long as the team wished to stay under the cap.

It was encouraging and exciting to see management go after Smith, but I knew immediately once I heard of the deal that Atlanta would match. As long as the Grizz keep trying and keep fighting to get out of the cellar of the NBA, all the while staying committed to youth and avoiding risky contracts, we will get there. This past off season has given me more confidence in the long term prospects of the Grizzlies than any of the past 5, that's a fact.