I love being wrong . . .

Wow. Who is this Irish team that we are watching, and where is the mediocre squad we've seen the past few months? Jimmy Clausen is playing the greatest game as a QB that I have ever seen - ever. 5 TDs and 87% completion, 400 yards, midway through the 3rd quarter?!? Wow.

Merry Christmas!

Somewhere Over the Rainbow . . .

For those that read this blog, you are familiar with my game "predictions". I predict the outcome of the game, and a few significant things that happened. Then I check my predictions after the game. More than just specific predictions, I try to really discuss what the story of the game will be. If I pick Jimmy to have a good game passing, or the Irish defense to have a field day. So when reading my specific predictions, enjoy them for what they are, which is mostly a "feel" for how the game will go for the Irish. Now onto my "predictions".

Tomorrow night, at 7pm central time on ESPN, America will be opening presents, at church, or watching the Irish play Hawaii in the Sheraton Hawaii bowl. The Irish have been in Honolulu since Friday, but there hasn't been much "buzz" coming stateside. For one, everyone is in the Christmas mood. Second, the real "bowls" don't start until New Years Eve.

What has been filtering back through the news wires is a sense of how BIG this game is for Hawaii. Numerous papers and persons are saying "this is the biggest game in Hawaii history, including last year's historic BCS Sugar Bowl appearance." Yikes, not good for the Irish. The Warriors are excited by two things about this game; first, the Irish are very beatable. I will not further dissect this. Second, the game is on prime time on ESPN, and more people will be watching this game than the Sugar Bowl last year (ie. Notre Dame is playing).

So when I tell you I am trying to predict how the game will go, the fact that this game has become the Super Bowl for Hawaii football certainly factors in.

• Prediction 1 - The Irish defense will play another solid "bend but not break" game, giving up 250 yards total offense and 24 points. Hawaii is not a great offense like recent years, as stated in my post just below with all of ND and Hawaii's stat rankings for the season (check it out). Hawaii's offensive average this season is 345 yards per game, so holding them to 250 is more than we should need.
  
• Prediction 2 - Maurice Crum goes out in style, with 1 fumble recovery and 1 big interception. Maurice Crum has been a 4 year starter and the heart and soul of this team. A two time captain, he wants to win his last game and end the 15 year bowl win draught.
  
• Prediction 3 - Jimmy Clausen has a solid day, but different than his other solid days. Early this season, Clausen was on fire. People forget how good he was. The problem was that he was reliant upon the deep pass, and had trouble with the intermediate pass. Late in the year, he couldn't hit the deep routes and his performance declined significantly. Look for Clausen to have a good game with checkdown WRs and lots of swing RB passes. A solid 289 yard, 2 TD and 1 INT effort.
  
• Prediction 4 - Special Teams touchdown early calms the Irish. Whether its a punt return or a kickoff return or a block, something will need to happen to settle the Irish down. I predict Golden Tate on a punt return midway through the 1st quarter.
  

Game prediction time -

ND 27 Hawaii 21

The Irish make 3 TDs and 2 field goals, holding off the late charging Warriors barely. Hawaii's kicker has had a worse year than ours, so missed field goals by Hawaii force Hawaii to have to go 80 yards for the game winning touchdown with a minute to go. The Irish hold the Warriors off, but they come very close to scoring. An exciting ending and fun game to watch.

Merry Christmas and GO IRISH!!!

Hawaii Six n Six

We're still here at VaticanSmoke. Not much news to report on during somewhat of a "dead period" for the football team. Today the team has finished finals and is heading to Hawaii, which should begin the flow of a bit more information. The Vegas line is still around Hawaii favored by 1 to 1.5 points. Can you blame them? Realistically, the Irish offense has not played consistently well enough to beat good teams since the first half of the North Carolina game.

I have seen a lot of message board postings and other musings over the past two weeks that have really explained the decision to keep Charlie Weis as coach. Everyone has an opinion - from ESPN to the guy at your water cooler. But the prevailing current that runs through the ND family of former players and educated fans is that keeping Charlie was the right decision. Charlie is a proven recruiter and next season will be the first where he has 4 full classes of his recruited depth. Keeping Charlie also avoids the reputation of being a "coaching guillotine", at least until next year. Stability is another by product of the decision - something Notre Dame football hasn't had in quite some time.

Despite the majority acceptance of the decision to keep Charlie, everyone agrees that 2009 will be "it" for Charlie. Sink or swim, Waterloo, and whatever other analogy - they all apply. Lucky for Charlie, he has a core of sophomores and juniors who will lead the team next year, with a full but average class of seniors sprinkled in. And oh yeah, another easy schedule.

Check back early next week for a Hawaii Bowl preview. As always, comments and discussion are appreciated.

PS. Follow VaticanSmoke via Twitter.com updates. Sign up at twitter.com and add "vaticansmoke" as a friend. Twitter is essentially "microblogging", or small text messages via the web or mobile phone that are quickly communicated to any number of your friends. I plan to "tweet" during the game next week, and over the weekend as any ND news becomes available.

Stat Talk

Yesterday I predicted the initial betters line between the Irish and the Hawaii Warriors to be ND favored by 3.5 points. Turns out I was off, as the Warriors are favored by 1.5 pts currently, although the line should be moving a bit in the early betting. I am no longer surprised at this line after I have looked at the season long stats. The stats below are the NCAA Div1A national rankings (out of 119 teams). Here we go . . . (check out the stats via this link if you cannot view the table in your email or reader):

Offenses: The offenses are eerily similar, with Hawaii and the Irish ranking 74th and 75th, respectively. Yes, Hawaii has played 13 games to ND's 12. But remember that these stats are averages, so I don't think that 1 game affects the stats very much. Both teams pass better than they run, and both teams are average in the passing game but decidedly weak in the running game. Scoring wise, Hawaii has been slightly more efficient with their yards gained this season. Turnover margin wise these teams are nearly identical as well. Advantage: PUSH


Defenses: The Irish have the better defense, albeit just by a small margin. Scoring defense and pass defense is where the Irish clearly outpace the Warriors. ND's defense has been efficient this year, a perfect bend but not break and opportunistic squad (at least early in the year). The solid defensive advantage in yards given up becomes a very slim one if you taken into account tackles for a loss. Hawaii is 19th in the country, compared to the woeful Irish ranking of 112th. A slight edge to the Irish. Advantage: IRISH.


The raw offensive and defensive stats may indicate that the Irish should be a slight favorite. But the following factors weigh heavily against the Irish in this matchup:

Hawaii Homefield Advantage - Hawaii was 5-2 at home this season, and the Hawaii bowl is played in their home stadium (Aloha Stadium).

Irish Road Performance - The Irish were 2-4 on the road this season, holding on to beat Navy and handling Washington. Against Michigan St, UNC, BC, and USC, the Irish had major issues all over the field, and typically looked lost (except for the 1st quarter of the UNC game).

Irish 2nd half performance - The Irish finished the 2nd half 2-4, only looking like the first half of the season Irish during portions of the Washington and Navy games. Losing 4 out of the last 5 games was particularly terrible.

Confidence factor - Right now, I cannot imagine that the Irish have any confidence. They ended the season on embarrassing performances, and surely realize that they nearly got their coach fired. How could they be confident right now?

All in all, I am not surprised Hawaii is favored. In fact, if we weren't Notre Dame, we'd be touchdown underdogs. Lucky for us, the Irish will have their best defensive and offensive players back on the field, when Freshmen WR Michael Floyd and Sophomore LB Brian Smith return (they each missed the Syracuse and USC games, and it showed). Personally, I think the warm weather and the almost firing of Charlie Weis will give this team a spark. How much of one is up in the air. But if I were setting a betting line for this game, I think Hawaii favored by 1.5 pts is fair based on what I have discussed here.


Certainly there are other factors weighing against or in favor of the Irish - would love to hear your thoughts via the comments section. And for anyone that doesn't think this game matters, check out my post from yesterday.

Hawaii Bound

The 6-6 Irish found out their bowl destination yesterday, as the school announced its acceptance of the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl bid. The (7-6) Hawaii Warriors await the Irish in their home stadium in Honolulu on Christmas Eve, 8pm eastern time. The bowl marks the third time the Irish have played U of Hawaii, both previous times ending in 1 point Irish victories (November 1991 and November 1997).

The odds makers have not come out with a line that I have seen yet, but I am going to predict the line will be the Irish favored by 3.5 points. Factor in the stats I will provide in my post tomorrow, and see what conclusion you come to.

While many fans are upset, angry, or apathetic about the Irish bowl bid, this game is far from irrelevant. The Notre Dame football program has failed to enter an off season with a bowl victory since 1994. I'm going to type that sentence once more time, so please read it out loud or whatever you need to do for it to sink in: The Notre Dame football program has failed to enter an off season with a bowl victory since 1994.

Had the Irish won some bowl games at the end of a few of the good seasons during that stretch, maybe the Irish program would have experienced more consistent success, with fewer ups and downs? The Irish had numerous goods seasons (2000, 2002, 2005, and 2006 come to mind) but got soundly beaten in bowl games to end each season, killing any momentum as the Irish head into a winter full of conditioning and hard workouts. I cannot think of a bigger motivational spark or confidence building tool than winning a bowl game - even a lesser bowl like the Hawaii bowl.

Lou Holtz used to say the phrase "WIN" - which stood for "What's important now". He used it often to keep his team focused and to motivate. "What's important now" for the Irish is to learn from the inconsistent and disappointing 2008 season, and then discard any mental or emotional baggage that may remain, allowing full focus on Hawaii and this bowl game. No matter how prideful or embarrassed you may be as a fan of the Irish right now, the only thing we can do about it is to win this bowl game - a road game against a quality opponent - breaking a 14 year bowl drought. Then maybe we can truly move forward out of the cesspool that was 2007 and 2008 Notre Dame football, towards a better future.

Party Cloudy

Although we won't know anything official until Monday, Notre Dame's bowl picture cleared up slightly based on the result of the Rutgers vs Louisville game last night.

With the Rutgers win, the Big East now has enough 7-5 teams to prevent the Sun Bowl from selecting Notre Dame. Notre Dame is considered as a member of the Big East pool for 2 bowl games - the Sun and Gator. Notre Dame can be selected by either bowl over any other Big East team UNLESS the Irish are 6-6 and a 7-5 Big East team is still available for a bowl. With Rutgers hitting 7-5 last night, Notre Dame now has no bowl tie-ins. The Irish can only go to a bowl game as an "at large" selection for a bowl game that cannot utilize their conference tie-ins.

Here are the bowls that will be unable to select teams based on their tie ins, each having at least one spot available "at large":

Hawaii Bowl (Dec 24th, Honolulu)

Poinsettia Bowl (Dec 23rd, San Francisco)

Motor City Bowl (Dec 26th, Detroit)

Independence Bowl (Dec 28th, Shreveport)

Texas Bowl (Dec 30th, Houston)

Should any or all of these bowls want Notre Dame, it will be totally up to Notre Dame to decide which offer to accept. From what I am hearing though, Notre Dame wants to avoid any bowl games that would affect exams or occur right around Christmas. [Remember, Notre Dame did not go to any bowl games from 1924 (Rose Bowl) until 1969 (Cotton Bowl), choosing to forgo bowl games and instead have students focus on their exams and the Christmas holidays.] That really only leaves two bowl options - the Independence and the Texas Bowl.

The Texas Bowl has already selected one team - the Rice Owls from Conference USA. As the Big 12 will not have enough eligible teams to fill the other side of the bowl slot (due to 2 teams being in the BCS), the Texas bowl has an at large spot and has been "actively recruiting" Notre Dame, according to the president of the Texas Bowl. Negatives: Playing Rice in Houston, playing a solid offense like Rice. Major downside is that this game will be shown on TV on NFL Network, which is not available to everyone. It will be Tuesday evening game as well, albeit the only college bowl game on at that time. Positives: Playing in an NFL Stadium (Reliant Stadium, home of the Houston Texans). Rice does not have a particularly strong defense.

The Independence Bowl is much more wide open. Since both the Big 12 and SEC will fail to provide a team through their tie ins (largely due to both conferences sending 2 teams to BCS bowls), the Independence Bowl has two spots available. One interesting note - last year the game featured Alabama versus Colorado. As to who the two teams will be, its anyone's guess. La Tech, Memphis, Notre Dame, Arkansas St., Western Michigan, and a few others. Negatives: Not a marquee opponent, Shreveport is pretty boring. Positives: A Sunday night ESPN game national spot, a winnable game, and its a relatively close drive for yours truly.

One major positive from either of these bowls is the opportunity to break the bowl game winning streak. But with an easier opponent than traditional Irish bowl matchup, the potential embarrassment factor also is in play.

If I had to predict the bowl destination, I would say 70% chance of the Texas Bowl against Rice, 30% chance of the Independence Bowl against La-Tech. I personally am rooting for the Independence Bowl due to location, but the Texas Bowl probably sounds like a better fit. Houston is a big Texas city that Notre Dame would like to recruit more in. The stadium is Super Bowl caliber NFL stadium. Rice is a solid and beatable team. Official destination will be known on Sunday at 4pm. More to come then . . .

To the Edge and Back Again

Sorry for not posting the past few days. I have been watching the whole media feeding frenzy after the USC loss, and really just waiting for something to write about. Certainly I could have posted about a number of things. Focusing on new coaching candidates could have been a post or two, but I wasn't sure Weis would be fired and I did not want to waste the energy. I could have done a post game wrap up after the USC game, but who wants to break down a 38-3 drubbing? And I doubt you'd care to read it.


Now that Notre Dame has officially come out and backed Charlie Weis publicly, we can end the confusion and actually put things into perspective.


Notre Dame football this season has put me through the gamut of emotions - first I was disappointed by the losses to Michigan St. and North Carolina, then outraged by the losses to Pitt and BC. Finally came apathy after the loss to Syracuse, and embarrassment after the drubbing by USC this past weekend. Somewhere in between was awe as to how we almost lost to Navy on 2 straight onsides kicks. The past few days have brought numerous feelings about Charlie Weis. It feels as if we fired him Saturday night or Sunday - and then rehired him on Tuesday night. Weird.


No matter what we have all felt the past few weeks and months, we are now left with a mediocre football team and a beleaguered coach that is likely on a very short leash. I will not waste any time outside of this post speculating as to whether keeping Charlie or firing Charlie was the right move. I honestly don't know the answer, as you can give compelling reasons for both. Since I am positive and looking forward, here are a few reasons why we should be glad the school kept Charlie:


Charlie is a great recruiter that has refueled the talent pipeline in South Bend. Davie and Willingham did not recruit nearly at the top 10 level Weis has, although on the field the results have not yet been different. His Super Bowl rings are still shiny to recruits and should be to us fans also.


Charlie desperately cares for this program, and is an Alumnus of ND. I realize that my devotion to ND football does not qualify me to be coach, but this characteristic cannot be overlooked.


Charlie has been humbled and walked to the edge of his career ledge - yet he's still around. Men have a strange way of sometimes taking these experiences and improving.


Charlie's presence will create some continuity for the Irish. 5 years for a head coach is really the best way to measure him, although 5 years is too long for most fans today. Charlie now has had time to develop all of his recruiting classes and allow guys to have lots of experience in his system.


Charlie is willing to change. He certainly is going to have to change a lot, especially on his coaching staff. Look for at least 3 coaches to be gone, likely the Offensive Coordinator Mike Haywood, Offensive Line coach John Latina, and Defensive Line coach Jappy Oliver. The most important position that has been underdeveloped has been offensive line, so we must get an offensive line coaching guru to ND at all costs.


Next year Charlie will have his full lineup of experienced Weis recruits. Lets give him the one and final shot to prove his worth.


No more Charlie job talk. In the coming posts we will focus on the bowl game, recruiting, grades for every position, and any other topic that presents itself on the road to improvement. We are not looking back with regret or emotion, but with a critical approach to get better. Negativity about the program or Weis will not live here.

I want a divorce

Irish get rolled 38-3. Once again, I picked half of the score correct, as I predicted USC to score 38 points. I would be surprised if I blog on another subject besides the firing of Charlie Weis for the coming weeks.

Tonight

Sorry for the lack of posts. Been a good Thanksgiving holiday with the family. 

A few notes before a very defining game for Charlie Weis and the current state of Notre Dame football:

-  Notre Dame has not beaten USC since 2001; USC's average margin of victory is nearly 24 points in those wins.

- USC's defense is averaging only 8.7pts given up per game. That's tops in the country. 

- The point spread is up to 32 points (USC favored of course) in some spots

- The Irish defense hasn't given up more than 24 points all season against an opposing offense. 

-  In the 5 Irish road games this season, the Irish have turned the ball over 19 times versus only 3 takeaways.

We all want the Irish to win this game, but it just doesn't seem possible. Funny things happen when programs and coaches and players are "near the edge", but there have been no indications on the field at any point in the last 2 seasons to indicate the Irish have a chance to even stay in this game. 

Prediction time

Prediction 1  -  The Irish get a few lucky bounces tonight. Likely early, a turnover or two. How the Irish handle these gift wrapped chances will determine if we stay in the game past the first half. 

Prediction 2  -   The Irish have some success on the ground. Not much. Maybe 100 yards rushing total, which is good for the Irish against USC, but not good enough to win the game without major help elsewhere. 

Prediction 3  -  If USC covers the spread (which is likely), Charlie Weis will be fired on Monday evening. 

Prediction 4  -  If Notre Dame wins this game (impossible . . . nearly), Charlie Weis will enjoy success in the next few years and fully coach out his 10 year contract through the 2015 season. 

Prediction 5  -  Brian Kelly (head coach of Cincinnati) will be hired as the new Notre Dame coach as soon as next weekend if Prediction 3 comes true.

Some meaty predictions there. I have been thinking about the Weis situation all week, and I just think if the Irish get blown out, Weis is gone. His recruiting has been good, but losing winnable games and getting blown out by a rival just dont fly in South Bend. Our schedule was weak this season, and 7 wins was really the basement for this team. 6-6 would have been 5-7 or 4-8 with a more difficult schedule. 

Score prediction  . . . 

IRISH   13     USC  38

USC does not cover the spread, but soundly beat the Irish. Weis's fate is completely up in the air with this score, maybe with odds of fire/stay being 60/40%. Firing Weis after a blowout is completely fair, but definitely will hurt our recruiting and be a painful divorce from our program. But the firing would be justified and the right move. 

Go Irish, beat Trojans. 

3 Plays

Poor coaching of the fundamentals rarely changes "next year" when players have more experience, or more big time recruits fill the roster. These 3 plays from the Syracuse game in particular convict Weis and his staff of something I am not sure he can repair or change - the inability to teach fundamental football skills to young players.


Play 1 - 1st quarter, 3rd down and 4, third play of the game. Irish try to convert a third and medium with a pass from the shotgun.





The middle linebacker blitzes and hits Clausen completely untouched. Actually, there was not even an attempt to touch him. Inexplicably, left guard Eric Olsen does not even look the potential blitzer, instead helping out Turkovich, the left tackle. Errors like this typically occur when an offensive lineman has to choose between two blitzers to block, not whether to block anyone at all. This mental error for a junior this late in the year falls on the coaching staff, period. I hold Olsen accountable, but ultimately the teacher should be good enough to guide a pupil away from such simple yet potentially disasterous mistakes like this one. Weis is GUILTY AS CHARGED.


Play 2 - 1st Quarter, 4th and 2, in Syracuse territory. The Irish go for it with a goalline formation running play.





Its not a bad move to go for it, considering how long the field goal try may have been. But when the offensive line misses assignments (who is #67 attempting to block?) or just getting blown up (can I help you up off the ground former 5 star recruit #74 Sam Young?), there is just FAIL written all over the offensive line play and the playcall. Even if the aforementioned players make their blocks, the safeties would have likely snuffed the play out for a 1 yard gain, at best. Either the players are poorly coached and do not have the mental and physical tools to execute the play, or Weis should have known better and passed the ball. Either way, Weis is GUILTY AS CHARGED.


Play 3 - The first defensive play after play #2 above. Syracuse goes for the jugular after their big defensive stop.





Syracuse uses the running back in the shotgun, fakes a handoff, and then throws a pass downfield. I realize these plays can be difficult to defend. A good coaching staff realizes that a "nothing to lose" Syracuse will try to improve its longshot status of winning this game via trick plays or big shots down the field. What better time to try a big play than after your defense just made a momentum grabbing stop? Football people know that gaining a large chunk of yards or scoring a touchdown right after your defense gets a turnover can multiply the momentum just gained tenfold. No one knows this as well as Charlie, who routinely calls a play action downfield pass on the first play after a big interception by the Irish. If a coach had simply mentioned, "Watch the big trick play or deep pass", I would imagine the defense would have been defended this play. The Irisih defense was completely unprepared and this play should have been an easy touchdown for Syracuse. Weis is GUITLY AS CHARGED.


I realize that there are numerous other good examples of plays from the game that I likely missed. I also realize that players don't always play like they are coached. But at some point, we have to realize that good teams like Florida, Oklahoma, and Alabama don't have many plays like this. Bad teams do. And when Notre Dame is considered "bad", someone has to be held accountable.

We are what we are . . .

We are a 6-5 football team that just got beat by 2-8 Syracuse.

We are a mediocre football team.

We are a team that played one of the easier BCS team schedules in the country.

We are a program that can and will be successful again.

We are, possibly, going to be looking for a new coach in 7 days time.

Saturday was a difficult loss, no doubt. But it was the easiest loss for me to swallow this year actually. I became "numb" right before halftime when I realized that we still had not scored a touchdown against the lowly Orange. I told myself that getting upset would do no good, and prepared myself for the worst. Things looked better in the second half, but the moment that the Irish settled for a field goal instead of a touchdown, starting on offense after a fumble on the 4 yard line, I knew that what a 13 point lead could mean - a 1 point loss. Via this whole process, I had shut down my emotions and prepped my psyche for a loss. I recommend this to any of you that have emotional issues when the Irish lose.

I am not going to waste (much) time telling you about how we outgained another opponent on offense, yet did not win the game. I am not going to tell you about the solid game Jimmy Clausen had, throwing for 291 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Nor am I going to mention how we lost the 2nd game this season in which we had zero turnovers. Whoops I just mentioned all of that. And the NCAA really needs to clarify the "toe then heel" catch rule, confusion over which has burned the Irish for the 2nd straight week.

Those of you that read this blog know that we are very pro-Charlie and have defended Coach throughout this entire season. The mainstays of the Charlie-defense have been the promise of incoming and developing talent, as well as how most of the Irish losses this season were games which the Irish should have won. Right now, none of those defenses catch any ears or have any credibility.

Don't waste your time defending Charlie any longer. Instead of defending him and pointing to the future, it is time that Charlie measures up in the only category that matters - Wins. At this point, Charlie is pretty much unable to impress me via the recruiting rankings, stat lines, depth charts, almost wins, moral victories, or quarterback play. We all want Notre Dame back to where she should be - top 10 every year, a team feared far and wide. If Charlie cannot do better than this, its time to move on and find someone else who can.

Many of you like my "predictions" so here is another one for you: If the Irish fail to cover the 29 point spread against USC this Saturday, Charlie Weis will be unemployed 7 days from right now.

Orange Bowl

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orangemen

Saturday November 22nd, 2008, 1:30pm Central

Notre Dame Stadium - Notre Dame, Indiana

The Irish are 20 point favorites over the (2-8) Orangemen on Saturday. Nearly 14 inches of snow has fallen during the week, so this game will be a cold one. And it could be a Green one, as the Irish sometimes wear the Green jersey for Senior Day, the last home game of the season. We shall see.

Despite the point spread and the firing of the Syracuse coach Greg Robinson last weekend, the Irish cannot overlook any opponents. Syracuse has played a solid schedule (losing by only 10 to West Virgina and Pitt) and will not be shocked by the talent level the Irish have. Now the quick stats:

• Syracuse Offense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 112th/65th


• Irish Offense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 28th/84th


• Syracuse Defense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 72nd/107th


• Irish Defense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 22nd/57th

The Orangemen's best weapon is running back Curtis Brinkley, who is actually pretty good. The kid is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has rushed for 1060 yards through 10 games, against solid but not great Big East competition. The Syracuse QB seems efficient, rarely throwing the ball but not throwing many INTs (9 TDs against 4 INTs). And Syracuse on defense is probably the second worst defense the Irish have played this season, close to the level of Washington. This should not be a close game.

Prediction time!

• Prediction 1 - Jimmy Clausen finally gets a good game on the books in the 2nd half of the season, throwing for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, against 1 INT.


• Prediction 2 - The Irish rack up 200 yards rushing, another solid effort on the ground.


• Prediction 3 - Yes, Golden Tate finally makes a "house call" on a punt or kickoff return.

Score prediction time!

IRISH 41 Syracuse 17

(Record picking the Irish straight up is 7-3, while only 6-4 against the spread)

Bowl-O-Rama

Notre Dame hit 6 wins last week, which means they are going to a bowl game. The Irish have some bowl tie-ins with the Big East, but here is your full bowl picture for the Irish. The breakdown for Notre Dame's bowl hopes are pretty simple - if the BCS is out of the equation (which it is), then there are only 3 bowl destinations available to the Irish.

Cotton Bowl

Dallas, Texas

Jan 2nd, 2009, 1pm central

Big 12 #2 vs SEC #3-5/Notre Dame

Bowl payout - $3.0m

Chances at attending - 10%

Likely opponents - Texas / Texas Tech / Ok. State / Oklahoma / Missouri

During 2006, Notre Dame re-signed a 4 year deal with the Cotton Bowl, which enables the Cotton Bowl to select Notre Dame 1 time during the 2007-2010 Cotton Bowls, in the place of the SEC team. My 10% chance might be too generous - but here is how I figure those odds. What the Irish have to do to get there . . . If Notre Dame wins out, beating Syracuse and USC, then the Irish would have a record of 8-4, and be riding the high of a nationally televised upset of archrival USC. The Cotton Bowl would then be forced to pick an SEC team like LSU or South Carolina (likely 8-4 or possibly LSU at 9-3 if they beat Ole Miss and Arkansas) over an 8-4 Notre Dame team. Of course, beating USC would be one of the upsets of the year in college football, so this is incredibly unlikely. And trying to figure out an opponent on the wild chance that the Irish make the game all depends upon the Big 12 South and Big 12 title game in the coming two weeks.

Sun Bowl

El Paso, Texas

December 31st, 2008, 1pm central

Pac 10 #3 vs Big 12 #5 /Big East #2 /Notre Dame

Bowl Payout $1.9m

Chances of attending 25%

Potential Opponents - Cal, Oregon, Arizona

The Sun Bowl is a newer agreement by Notre Dame that allows the Sun Bowl to choose the Irish ahead of a Big 12 or Big East team. What the Irish have to do to get there . . . lose both remaining games, or barely beat Syracuse and then get crushed by USC. This is the bowl game for the 6-6 Notre Dame team, or possibly a 7-5 Notre Dame team when the Gator Bowl has an attractive Big 12 option. There is a chance the Gator Bowl would not pick a 7-5 Irish team, but I think those chances are slim. Bowl games pick the Irish whenever they have a chance, and I doubt the Gator Bowl would pass on that chance.

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

January 1st, 2009, Noon central

ACC #3 vs Big 12#3/Big East#2/Notre Dame

Bowl Payout - $2.5m

Chances of attending - 65%

Potential Opponents - Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami

What the Irish have to do to get there . . . Beat Syracuse, and put up a decent fight against USC. By "decent" I mean within two touchdowns I would say. In reality, as long as ND is 7-5, its going to be hard for the Gator Bowl to choose 8-4 Nebraska or 9-3 Cincinnati or 8-4 Pitt. Certainly the Gator Bowl could possibly have the choice of a 10-2 Missouri team from the Big 12, but I have to assume the struggling economy will factor in when selecting a regional team that will have to travel a lot of fans. Notre Dame fans are all over Florida and this would be much less of an issue.

Pretty simple bowl picture isn't it? The more complicated and wide open part of the bowl picture is who Notre Dame's opponent will be, not where they are going. My initial prediction post at the beginning of the season revealed my prediction of a Miami vs Notre Dame matchup in the Meineke Car Care Bowl [Note: I later realized the Irish could not even attend the Meineke Car Care Bowl! I thought the Irish were in the Big East selection pool for all their bowl games (Gator, Sun, Papa Johns, Meineke, International, and St Petersburg), but I believe the Irish are only contractually obligated to be a potential participant in the BCS and the above 3 bowls. Would love to hear what you know - I have had a difficult time figuring this out online] So Notre Dame vs Miami in the Gator Bowl would be an interesting matchup - and the one that I would predict as of today.

Whether the Irish go to the Gator or Sun Bowls (or especially the Cotton), they will be facing a difficult and quality opponent that will present a big challenge to gaining the first bowl win in 15 years.

Looking Back - Seniors

With the last home game of the 2008 season being this weekend against Syracuse, we can look back on the senior class and see how they did. On the official roster at UND.com, there are 23 "seniors". Since Notre Dame lists 4th and 5th year players both the same as "seniors", there are players who arrived at Notre Dame in the '04 class, and some that arrived with the '05 class.

Of the 23 seniors, you can break it down like this:

• 9 players have played significant time during their career, and have completed their eligibility
  


• 6 players have played significant time during their career, but have 1 year of eligibility remaining
  


• 8 players are walk ons or did not see much field action during their career; none is likely to be asked to return for a 5th year
  

See the spreadsheet snippet below that details the names in the first two categories of seniors. If you cannot view the spreadsheet via email or RSS reader, click here.

And to put these 2004 and 2005 classes in perspective from an overall talent standpoint, here are the recruiting rankings by the two major services from 2004 through the current class being assembled for 2009. Weis was hired in December 2004 and did partial work on the 2005 class, the full work on the 2006 - forward classes (click here if you cannot view):

As you can see, the talent level in 2004 and 2005 was rated very poorly. In many's opinion, the very bad national ranking for these two classes is what pulled the rug out on Ty Willingham. Losing is bad, but with good recruiting in the pipeline (like Charlie), a coach can get a little bit more slack.

Digging into the 2004 and 2005 classes actually shows them to be significantly worse than the ranking would entail. In 2004, the Irish signed 16 players, which is a small class (20 is about average). Of those 16 players, an amazing 10 players transferred or left school. The top two players in this class were both 3 star rated, being Darius Walker (pictured) and Maurice Crum. The 2005 class was not much better, as only 15 players were signed. Only 3 of these players transferred/left, however. But the only 2 four star players signed in the 2005 class (Joey Hiben and DJ Ford [pictured]) left the team and transferred, respectively.

The point of this post is twofold - first, to congratulate and recognize the seniors who will walk through the tunnel for the last time on Saturday. Terrail Lambert, Maurice Crum, David Bruton, and Pat Kuntz will be sorely missed by the defense, as each is a multi-year starter. Maurice Crum has now started for 4 straight seasons, while David Bruton has been a significant contributor for 4 seasons as well. Bruton will be a first day pick in the NFL, with his rangy speed at free safety. Turkovich, Lambert, and Crum may have a chance to make an NFL team, but at this point the future is uncertain. These guys have fought hard through the firing of Willingham (the '04 class) and the transition to the Weis era. Bruton and Crum have been big time leaders for our defense, and have stayed completely out of trouble. Kudos to all of these guys as they move forward with their young lives.

The second point of the post is the obvious one. The lack of talent in the 2004 and 2005 classes explains a lot of the problems of the 2007 and 2008 seasons. I don't care how much talent is in the freshman and sophomore classes, rarely are there good teams that do not have strong junior and senior classes. Sprinkling a few Freshman and Sophomores with some experienced guys can work, but making the freshman and sophomore classes the foundation of your team will not. 2005 and 2006 football seasons had strong upper classes, and you saw the results. 2007 and 2008 do not. 2009 will.

I am not blaming the recent struggles of Notre Dame football fully on Ty Wilingham. Weis has made a huge number of coaching mistakes, equally as devastating as Willingham's lack of 2004-2005 recruiting. Willingham is gone forever and he is not the point.

My point is that come next season, the 2009 season, the excuses are over. All 4 classes of players will have been solidly ranked classes with depth and a minimal amount of attrition. This will be the year that Weis can best be judged by, more than any of his previous 4 years.

Two for the Money

The 2008 Irish have out gained 9 of their 10 opponents this season in total offense, while the defense has not given up more than 24 points during regulation in any 1 game. How are the 6-4 Irish not 8-2 or even 9-1? Two reasons explain, with the second being the most important:

The lack of a consistent rushing attack - This will always be a reason why teams struggle. The inability to get 3 yards rushing when you need it - or more directly, the inability to force a defense to respect your ground attack - will cause major issues. Defenses prey on more passes, causing turnovers. Fewer first downs are gained, particularly easier, 3 and 4 yard third down plays late in a game. Here is how we look for the season, through 10 games:

• Total Rushing Offense - Irish rank 84th in the country at 127 yards per game. To get to where I think a Weis offense should be, at a minimum, is about in the top 40 in the country. Right now Louisville ranks #40 in the country with 173 yards per game. Quite simply, we need to improve our rushing attack by 50 yards per game to be approaching "dangerous".



• Total Rushing Yards per carry - The Irish sit at 3.66 ypc for the season. The Irish need to be averaging at least a yard better per carry. But even 4.66 ypc would only yield 166 yards per game (given the same number of carries per game as has occurred - 34.5), which would slot the Irish 46th best in the country. That would be good but not great.
  

Now on to the #1 reason the Irish don't have a better record than 6-4 . . .

Turnovers - The Irish rank 102nd in the country in turnovers, giving up 25. Compare that with Florida, who has given up the 3rd fewest in the country with 10 (through the same number of games). The bad news is that Florida is almost as young on offense as the Irish. The good news is that Florida is most experienced and skilled as the most important turnover position - quarterback. A few game perspectives on how turnovers effected the outcome . . .

• The Pitt game - The Irish played sub-par, particularly on offense in the 2nd half. Pitt is a very solid but not great team. Yet the Irish clearly should have won the game and likely are a better team on their best days. Why? The Irish committed zero turnovers! Just by not turning over the ball, we should have won the football game without an even average performance by the Irish otherwise. If we turn the ball over once or twice, Pitt likely wins in regulation.



• The BC and UNC games - In both road games, the Irish turned the ball over 5 times, while the opponent turned the ball over 0 times. Our offense out gained their offense in both games (472 to 322 in the UNC game, 292 to 246 in the BC game). When you give the other team 7 points on interception returns (7 in both games), and then you follow that up by giving the other team field position inside the 50 yard line twice, you are not going to win football games. Against UNC, one less turnover and the Irish likely win the game. Against BC, it would have taken a reduction of 2 to have a chance. Amazing - we could have reasonably won both games and still had 4 to 0 turnover deficit against UNC and a 3 to 0 against BC.



• Navy - Yes, we actually won this game. Despite the 5 turnovers we had against Navy!! Yes, Navy gave us a turnover, so the margin was only 5-1 against us. Easily add 10 points to our score - if not 14 or 21 - if the Irish simply do not turn the ball over. The game never has a chance to be close with bad officiating and ridiculous onsides kicks.



• Road games turnover margin (5 games) - 19 turnovers by the Irish . . . only 2 by the 5 opponents



• Home games turnover margin (5 games) - 6 turnovers by the Irish . . . 16 by the 5 opponents.



• For the season, the Irish turnover margin of 25 turnovers lost to 18 turnovers gained is not good. 102nd in the country at giving it away, but 63rd in takeaways, despite the lopsided (seemingly backwards) numbers.

Certainly there are other contributing factors to a lesser extent. The playcalling has been bad at times, the inability to generate tackles for a loss on defense is another. But these reasons pale in comparison to the amount of points we have given opponents via turnovers, which are largely related to over-use of the pass resulting from the inability to run the ball.

Any improvement in the Irish win-loss total for the 2009 season will be a direct correlation to improvement in these two areas. Particularly turnovers on the road, which is the most telling stat of anything above. Hopefully the Irish can make a few strides to improvement in the final 3 games.

All Hands on Deck

It has taken 48 hours for my heart to return to a normal rhythm after the near disaster Saturday in Baltimore. After controlling the game and dominating for 55 minutes, the Irish - including many walk ons and second teamers who played most of the last 5 minutes - had a sloppy finish that almost cost them the game. Most of you watched the ending, so I will not recount what happened. In short - the Irish 2nd team offense fumbled on the goal line, which then prompted a long Navy touchdown, followed by 2 on side kick recoveries and a touchdown sandwiched in between. Navy had the ball with a minute to go and a chance to score a game winning touchdown, but thankfully failed.

This game is your perfect "glass half full or half empty" or "Jekyl and Hyde" or whatever other cliche you wish to describe contrasting good and bad performance by the Irish. Here is your bullet style attack from the Vatican:

Good Irish . . .

• Irish rushing attack racked up 230 yards against a solid Navy rush defense (previously 30th nationally, giving up an average of 116 yards per game). I realize this was Navy and this should happen, but it was nice to see the Irish pound Navy with success throughout the game (and outrush the #2 rushing attack in the country). All 4 Irish backs had their moments, as James Aldridge, Robert Hughes, Armando Allen, and even freshman Jonas Gray all got in the action. A solid effort by the backs and especially the offensive line. Hopefully this will build confidence in the rushing game.



• 2nd Half Offensive Adjustments - A credit to Weis and his playcalling for simplifying the 2nd half gameplan, using only swing passes, screen passes, and the running game. Why throw forward passes when Navy's defensive backs were giving a 10 yard cushion, their safeties playing deep zone coverage, and the linebackers played the short zone? Navy was doing what most teams have done against the Irish in the 2nd half of the season - make them win via the short stuff, not the quick strike deep passes that the Irish feasted on against early opponents. Take what they give you, and don't try to force passes into triple zone coverage (Ahem, Jimmy).



• Irish defense held Navy to 120 yards less than their rushing average. Other than the 2nd teamers in the last few minutes, the Irish defense once again had a fantastic effort, forcing Navy to punt 8 times. Navy's option attack never got going in the game, despite what the score may indicate. The Irish held Navy to 7 points through 58 minutes, and even some late fluke touchdowns cannot erase the efforts of the Irish defense. Kudos.



• Irish Punt teams - The Irish blocked a punt early and scored a touchdown when Mike Anello broke through the line and made the block. This was clearly the play of the 1st half, and a play that let ND take a sigh of relief while the offense wasn't yet clicking. On the 3 punts that the Irish made to the Middies, Navy only was able to return 1 of them for a loss of 1 yard. A solid day's work on both sides of the punt coverage.

Bad Irish . . .

• 5 Turnovers - Nothing more needs to be said. 2 interceptions, 3 fumbles, versus only 1 Navy turnover. For the season on the road, the Irish turnover margin is something like 20 to 1. I am pretty sure the road game turnover margin was 15-0 against the Irish when the game began, but no matter what the specifics, its a sad picture. You simply cannot turn the ball over that many times on the road and win football games. The Irish better get this part together, otherwise USC will beat us by 50.



• Clausen's passing performance - awful. He continues to throw passes into the zone coverage most teams are playing against the Irish. Defenses know that ND's best attack has been the deep pass, and so defending this pass has been priority #1 the past few weeks as Pitt, BC, and Navy have all displayed a similar strategy. When there are 7 men in zone pass coverage, there are only going to be so many holes. Clausen must take what the defense gives him - even if he is throwing the short swing passes to Armando on every play. The only way to get the defense out of those coverages is to beat them to death on the short passes and the running game. Take the 5 yards per pass and move on, and stop forcing passes into triple coverage.



• Brian Smith and Michael Floyd injuries - Unfortunately, two of our brightest young stars will be out up to 4 weeks, missing the Syracuse and USC games. Both were taken out early in the Navy game, both with knee strains. Navy likes to chop block and they did this on Smith, while Floyd was the victim of someone falling on his knee. Its going to be that much more difficult to have a respectable showing at USC with these guys out.



• Hands team is fired. The two onside kicks that Navy recovered were awful displays of how to attempt to receive an onsides kick. The unit looked tenative, scared, and worst of all, very poorly coached. The front line of a hands team always blocks the oncoming kicking team, while the 2nd line gets the ball. ND's front line stood there, not blocking or grabbing the ball, and the result was a Naval assault that Douglas MacArthur would have been proud of. On the very first Navy onside kick, Irish hands teamer Robby Parrish batted the ball out of bounds. He smiled and was excited - clearly not knowing he had committed a penalty of "batting". The fact that the hands team did not know about this rule was evidence to poor coaching for this extremely important play. This may be the only time this season where the Irish need to use their hands team, and it was almost a fatal performance.

As for my 4 game predictions, 3 of them were decently close while 1 was way off. Clausen did not pass for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, but less than half of that plus 2 interceptions. The Irish defense and rushing attack both did significantly better than I expected, a great performance for each. I picked the score to be 31-21 Irish, and I was just 4 points total off the exact score. Certainly I didn't expect Navy to score 14 points in 30 seconds late in the game, but the prediction was close. My season prediction record in Irish games is 7-3 straight up, 6-4 when predicting who covers the point spread.

This week the Irish need to get healthy, and pound hapless Syracuse this weekend. Playing well against USC is priority #1b right now, even with beating Syracuse this week being at the forefront. Hopefully the Irish can start gameplanning now for the USC game, without short changing the Syracuse game preparation.

Sink or Sail

Notre Dame vs Navy

11:00am CST, Saturday, CBS National Coverage

(from Baltimore, MD)

The Irish play the trickiest game on the schedule this Saturday as they take on the Midshipmen of Navy. Last year's loss to Navy was the one that broke the streak of 43 straight wins, a stinging loss that sank the Irish to the lowest of lows.

The story is the same every year Notre Dame plays Navy - the talented, widely recruited bunch plays the little recruited, hard working chain gang. The Navy squad always has a built in way of getting fired up when they play Notre Dame - no one thinks they are as good or talented as the Irish. Typically Navy also plays with an additional chip on their shoulder - revenge. But not this year, as Navy looks to start a 2 game winning streak against the Irish for the first time since the days of Roger Staubach.

Just because Notre Dame has lost two tough games, has a sputtering offense, and lost to Navy last year, does not preclude the Irish from doing what they are expected to do against Navy this year and every year they play until the end of time - win comfortably. Here are the reasons why Notre Dame will win this football game comfortably:

• The Irish defense is up to the task - I will keep saying it as long as someone listens, but this is the best Notre Dame defense in some time. They do not give up the big play, and have no glaring weakness. Run defense is their weakness, but the Irish still are respectable against the run (53rd in the country, 132 yards per game). Jon Tenuta is the X factor for the Irish defense. I would be surprised if his blitzes do not seriously disrupt the Navy rushing attack, possibly causing some bad QB pitches or fumbles.




• It took a game of epic proportions for Navy to beat the worst Irish team in 40 years. Lets not forget that last year's game was a 3 overtime victory for Navy, a game in which the Irish passed on a 41 yard field goal to win the game as time expired. The Irish also gave Navy 7 points late in the second half on a costly Evan Sharpely fumble, and blew some chances in overtime to win the game. The point is that the Irish should have won the game last year, and were likely the better team. Navy is not just going to start winning games regularly in this series - so long as we respect them as an opponent and take care of business.




• The Irish have not punted against Navy in 3 years . . . let that one sink in. The Irish offense has not punted against Navy in 3 years. What makes anyone think the Irish will not have some modicum of success offensively on Saturday? Last year's awful offense scored 44 points in the 3 overtime game. The Irish should move the ball, and hopefully they will gain confidence early and get out of the offensive funk they have been in.

The tone of this post might convey arrogance or denial that Notre Dame could ever lose to Navy again. We certainly can lose to Navy, who is well coached and shortens games with its ball control offense. But the only way Navy beats Notre Dame is if the Irish players and coaches over look the middies - if we take them lightly. If we respect what they do, modify our game plan to counter their distinctive style, and avoid ridiculous mistakes, we win this game 9 times out of 10. Prediction time:

• Prediction 1 - The Irish defense will hold the Navy rushing attack to a 240 yard day - a good day for most teams, but 60 yards below the #2 rushing attack's average. I think ND getting a lead early will force some more passes, but otherwise the Irish defense would hold Navy to their average of 300 yards.



• Prediction 2 - The Irish rushing attack finds some success, rushing for 135 yards. Navy's rush defense is one of the best its had in some time (30th nationally, 116 yards per game), but the Irish find a way to move the ball from some spread formations with Armando Allen.



• Prediction 3 - Jimmy Clausen throws for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has a solid day, not turning the ball over at all. Late in the game the Irish focus on the rush game completely, so after a very fast and furious first half, Jimmy throws much less in the 2nd.

No, I am not predicting a Golden Tate punt or kickoff return this week. Mostly because the return units have played poorly, and Navy does not punt the ball as often as most teams. But I would be surprised if this season finishes without a "house call" on a punt or kickoff by Golden. He is that good.

Score prediction - Irish 31 Navy 21

The Irish get up early 14-0 on a turnover and a deep pass play, and cruise from there. The 10 point margin is closer than the game ever really was, as Weis runs the ball almost the entire second half. This team needs a confidence boost, and I think this game provides the springboard to finish the season strong.

[My record picking the Irish this season, straight up, is 6-3, as I predicted the Michigan St loss. My record against the spread is 5-4, as I wrongly predicted a cover in the Michigan St, Pitt, Stanford, and BC games]

More Weis Talk

Great article on Weis and his current status as ND coach over at the Blue Gray Sky. Definitely a good read. Their article hits on a lot of the same points as my post below - I'm not sure Weis is THE coach, but its too early to drop the hammer on him just yet. Positive signs exist, and in the coming weeks we will know more. And how could you not love a coach that can handle an AK when needed?


Check back tomorrow for a Navy game preview. The trickiest game of the year has become more frightening than ever - as its a do or die game for Weis and the Irish.

Gut Instincts

In the last few days, I have been asked a question about Charlie Weis and his future as the Notre Dame football coach no less than 10 times. I'm sure many of you have experienced the same fate. ESPN is circling above the wounded giant of ND football right now, with everyone from Colin Cowherd to Beano Cook all getting their shots in via nonstop coverage.

For those of you who want Charlie fired now, this is probably not your post. We all can love ND football, but have differences of opinion in how to make it great again. I am not certain - as I was a few years ago - that Charlie is the guy. But I am certain that its too soon to give up on Charlie, and the verdict is still out - albeit not by much.

To be fully balanced, I present the top 5 reasons to keep Charlie . . . followed by the top 5 reasons to fire him. You be the judge.

Keep Charlie because . . .

• Recruiting under Weis has been at a Holtz level. I know recruiting rankings are not perfect, but Weis has had 3 straight top 10 classes by nearly every publication. His best class yet - the #1 ranked (after Alabama did not get 6 kids into school, the Irish won the Rivals.com 2008 Recruiting Crown) 2008 class is already doing damage on the field (Kyle Rudolph, TE, Michael Floyd, WR, Ethan Johnson, DE, Robert Blanton, DB, just to name a few). The talent is coming in, but it takes more than a class or three to get a program to the top tier. Top programs recruit every single year, creating extreme competition at every position, which then results in depth and more improvement from hungry players looking to see the field.



• This team is finally playing defense. Pairing this defense with Brady Quinn teams migh have resulted in another win or two, or at least more respectable losses. Easily his best defensive performance since Weis has been head coach. Currently, through 9 games, the Irish defense ranks 39th in the country in yards (324 yard per game), 35th in the country in scoring defense (20.4), and 45th in pass defense (196 yards per game). While its not light years ahead of prior years, its certainly avoiding the big play and giving the Irish offense ample chance to win games. The most points the defense has allowed in regulation this season in 1 game is 24! points, against Pittsburgh (remember, UNC only scored 21 points against our defense). The defense is improving and is now a slightly above average unit capable of holding its own against most teams.



• The offense hasn't been as bad as you think. The Irish have outgained their opponents in 3 of their 4 losses, outgaining everyone but Michigan St. While the offense has stalled a bit lately, it is still moving the chains up the field. The problem has been turnovers!, which have a lot to do with the youth on the field. With 25 of 28 touchdowns this season being scored by freshman or sophomores, youth is bound to make some mistakes. Make no mistake, the Irish have played poorly offensively the past two games. And I will not even attempt to defend our woeful running attack. My point is that the turnovers have doomed the Irish more than anything else - not lack of offensive ability or production. 1 more positive offensive play against UNC or Pitt would likely have you thinking differently about the Irish offense long about now.



• Next year, this team will be good. Weis will have juniors and sophomores all over the depth chart, with a strong number of seniors as well. Throw in a freshman 5 star Running Back in Cierre Wood, as well as more developed Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, and you will see an offense that could challenge all the records Brady set. The schedule is once again favorable with 4 built in wins against (Nevada, Purdue, Washington State, Washington), 4 winnable games (Navy, Pitt, Connecticut, Stanford), and 4 tough games (USC, @ Michigan, Michigan Stl, and Boston College). 2009 is Charlie's Waterloo - 9 wins or he's gone. I think 10 is what most people would expect, but 9 wins in 2009 will be what it takes to keep his job.

Fire Charlie because . . .

• The talent on the defensive and offensive lines has not and is not there. The Irish rushing attack sits at 95th in the country, despite having multiple 4 star running backs with major college offers (Jonas Grey, Robert Hughes, Armando Allen, and James Aldridge). While none of these backs is Barry Sanders, there has not been consistent run blocking for them to find lanes. On defense, its not much better for the DLine. The Irish defense ranks 111th in the country in tackles for a loss, and 82nd in sacks. Certainly linebackers need to make plays also, but the defensive line is clearly the issue. No team without strong lines on both sides of the ball can even sniff being in the top tier of college football teams. Recruiting hasn't been great on the Dline in particular, and doesn't look to be much better next year either.



• Charlie Weis has lost his last 15 games against teams with a winning record at the end of the season. That barb hurts badly, as it should. The Irish are not beating any good teams, or even 7-5 type teams right now. Navy this weekend will give him the chance to break this streak, as Navy is 6-3 and likely will finish with at least 7 wins. But beating Navy won't get Charlie much more than a pat on the back. No matter what excuses can be made for 2007 or the BCS blowouts in 2005 and 2006, the proof is in the W/L record, and Charlie has just not gotten the job done against decent competition. A few more losses to add onto this streak and Charlie is fired, with cause (right Al Davis?).



• Bad situational football, particularly in the 2nd half. The 2nd half and overtime of the Pitt game was the worst I had seen an Irish team handle time pressure since Ty Willingham. The lack of adjustments in the 2nd half of the UNC and Michigan St game definitely played a roll in each loss. No matter what talent is there, a well coached team will show poise and solid execution down the stretch. That statement cannot be used to describe the Irish right now. There have not been ample opportunities to show poise late when the game is still on the line, but we have seen nothing to say the Irish can handle the pressure since 2006/2005 (the final offensive drives of the UCLA game in '06, and the USC and Stanford games in '05). Another loss that was mismanaged late like the Pitt game will be devastating for Weis.



• Embarrassment factor. Weis has endured more 30 pt losses (3) and shutouts (3) in his 4 years than any big program should ever have in a decade. Any more additions to these tallies quite simply will be fatal to Weis's tenure at ND. Fans cannot and should not tolerate this. Not much to add here.

No matter how many pro and con lists you make, I believe decisions and opinions have to come from your "gut" - or the brain's evolved decision making capacity. Sometimes you just know the answer, but you may not be able to explain it. Oftentimes that feeling is the result of your brain calculating and weighing all these pro's and con's and spitting out the answer.

My "gut" says that Charlie is going to finish his 10 year contract. I think we'll remember these tough losses and this tough time just like that night at the casino where you're entire stack of chips was down to one or two more hands of blackjack - but then you rallied back to win 10 times what you started with. The chips are low for the Irish football program right now, but this session is not over yet. Win a few more this season, and then next season we put all our chips in the middle and see what happens.

Audible

Coach Weis's Tuesday press conference was the most grim I can remember. You can view the media session at und.com, in the video tab, on the main page.

Typically the media focuses the questions on specific issues relating to Irish health, the upcoming opponent, or the gameplan offensively or defensively for the coming game. This session was much different. The most pointed question was (I summarize), 'What do you say to people who are not sure if you are right man for the job (as ND Coach)?'. Charlie replied (again I summarize, but make no doubts that this is accurate), 'Its about where your program is going, where will it be. I am confident in where we are going and I am confident that the program will get to where we all want it to be'.

Another question to Charlie was really a rhetorical one - something along the lines of, 'Coach, Notre Dame fans are very impatient; do you think some ND fans are overly impatient and overly upset right now?' Charlie responded with a very honest response: "I'd be perturbed too if I were them. I wouldn't be very happy with the way the Pittsburgh game ended, and I wouldn't be too excited about how the offense and special teams played (against Boston College). If you look at last week's game against Boston College and the previous week's game against Pittsburgh, you sit there and say, We're sitting there (5-4), why aren't we better than that?".

But in perhaps the biggest, most important news that came from the press conference, is that Charlie Weis is going to get back involved and start gameplanning and calling plays for the offense. If you remember, he gave up playcalling in the spring to his offensive coordinator, Mike Haywood. Charlie sees the offense as the major problem, and plans to get more directly involved in the process.


I see a much less confident and less cocky Charlie Weis today. That saddens me a bit, because part of the initial allure of Charlie was this confidence in his abilities. I think it has clear that he has realized that college football is more about motivation and recruiting than schematic advantages and gameplans, like the NFL.

Let me make this clear - I have not given up on Charlie. His recruiting has been fantastic, and is continuing to be in the nation's elite. And I think him returning to playcalling is the right move, provided that he ends up being somewhere in the middle on the spectrum of pure playcaller (like in 2005-2007) and pure headcoach (through 9 games this season). Playcalling and gameplanning has always been the "core competency" of Charlie Weis - put simply, it's what he does best. But being a headcoach requires leadership and responsibility over all facets of a football program - not just playcalling - but everything from punt formations to study hall.

So in short, we need Charlie to call plays AND be the head coach. And do them both well, while not letting up on recruiting one bit. Whether or not he can adjust and do all three - very quickly, as in, this week quickly - will determine how long he remains head coach.

Who is the real Fredo?

The Irish fell to the Eagles for the 6th straight time, almost completely erasing a chance at an 8-4 record for the Irish this season. BC needed to do very little to win the game, simply letting the Irish self destruct in the 17-0 rout. BC scored 3 times, all 3 aided by Irish turnovers (7 points on a interception returned for a TD, 7 points after a blocked punt in BC territory, and 3 points after another interception). You can review the game stats and recap here.


I won't spend much time on my predictions, which you can view in the recap below. I predicted Jimmy would throw 3 TDs and 1 INT, and I was grossly wrong. Jimmy's 4 interceptions was a career high, and was easily the story of the game. The Irish passing attack got some yards, but the turnovers negated it all. There are no excuses, not even the fact that Jimmy was bedridden Friday evening with the flu. Stat of the day - The Irish outgained the Eagles by 50 yards, marking the 3rd loss out of 4 this season in which the Irish have outgained the opponent.


Numerous thoughts come to mind 36 hours after this loss - is Charlie the right guy to be coach for the Irish? How can the offense, with such talent and early season success, completely self destruct and lay a goose egg? Why does this team look mentally unprepared for each big game they play? How in the world has Charlie Weis and Irish lost to the last 15 opponents they have played with a winning record?


At this point, we can focus on the bad news or the good. The bad news is that the Irish have not proven anything to anyone, or earned any respect outside of recruiting rankings. The bad news is that the Irish offense got shut out by a team that had given up an average of 34 points in its last 3 games. But, the good news is that there are 3 more football games left to improve, including 1 against an arch rival USC. The Irish defense - more good news. They continue to keep every game winnable and in fact did much better than that against BC, holding them to 245 yards total offense. Another piece of good news is that the Irish will likely have a chance to break the 15 year bowl curse on the program. Winning a bowl game would remove an awful statistic too often referenced, as well as usher the Irish into the offseason with a winning feeling unlike any of the past 14 seasons.


As disgusted as many of you are, ask yourself this: at the beginning of this season - or more directly, at the end of last season - would you have accepted a 7-5 season and a bowl win? As prideful as we Notre Dame fans are, I think the answer for most is yes. Certainly it cannot be classified as a great season, but simply a required stepping stone on the trail from 3-9 to National title contender.



Of course, 7-5 means beating Navy and Syracuse. Navy is once again good (6-3, beat Wake Forest earlier this year) and will certainly pound the Irish if they do not recover. The fact that Navy has a winning record will allow the Irish a chance at breaking the 15 straight losses to teams with winning records. It's all about ending bad streaks and creating positive ones.

Boston College Game Preview

IRISH @ Boston College - ESPN, 7pm CENTRAL time, Saturday night primetime

The 5-3 Irish and 5-3 Eagles face off in Boston in another big game for both team's bowl hopes. Games like this determine the difference between the Meineke Car Care Bowl and the Gator Bowl. ESPN HD will be televising, and I imagine the crew of Mike Patrick/Todd Blacklidge will be announcing the game, although I could not confirm. Now for what to watch for . . .

When Boston College has the ball . . . you might think this team is North Carolina. Their offense is very similar to the Tar Heels, in that the QB (Chris Crane) has more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (8), and their rushing offense is solid but not great. BC has the 82nd ranked offense in the country based on yards; 91st in passing yards, 59th in rushing yards (check out the cool NCAA statistics page that ranks every team in every category). The Eagles average 4.2 yards per carry for the season on the ground, but a very pedestrian 5.5 yards per pass attempt. While the offense as a whole looks like North Carolina, I don't believe BC has any gamebreakers on the offensive side of the ball like North Carolina did in Brandon Tate and Hakeem Nicks. The Irish defense ranks 50th against the run, 64th against the pass, and 38th in scoring defense. Bottom line - I do not expect BC to be able to get more than 24 points against the Irish, period. NC got only 21 points against the Irish defense, and I do not think BC can do any better. Look for the Irish to pressure Crane into some bad throws (which is always Tenuta's plan!).

When Notre Dame has the ball . . . you might see the same offense as in the North Carolina game - 5 wide, no running back, quick passes. Boston College has a very solid defensive line and linebacker corps, but is not as strong in the secondary. However, BC is still a top 18 ranked defense against the run and the pass, so its not like they are weak. This defense is not as opportunistic as the UNC defense is (UNC is ranked 6th in the nation in turnovers), and I think that will be the major difference between ND's offensive performance against UNC and the one to be displayed Saturday night at Chestnut Hill. Running the ball on Boston College, in my opinion, will only happen once we spread them out to defend the pass. I fully expect (and hope) the Irish come out 5 wide and let Jimmy get into a passing groove early. Then run some draws with Armando, as well as a healthy dose of swing passes. If the Irish try to run the ball early, I will be surprised and disappointed (unless it works!).

Prediction time. Check out my Pitt preview post grading below - even though I was way wrong on the score, my stat predictions were downright scary.

• Prediction 1 - Jimmy will pass for 245 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. A gritty performance in which the Irish get great field position and have some short fields.


• Prediction 2 - Chris Crane will account for 3 turnovers - either fumbles or INTs. One big defensive play in the 2nd half in favor of the Irish will be the difference.


• Prediction 3 - Golden Tate - house call. I am going to keep predicting this until it happens, and I started predicting this last week. I think his confidence is there, and its just going to take that perfect kick or punt that is bound to come soon. I say it happens early in the game tomorrow night.


• Prediction 4 - The Irish grind out a difficult but gutsy 115 yards rushing. BC doesn't give up much run yardage, so this will have been hard earned.

I think this game will go a long way towards determining how Irish fans will remember this season. A win over BC, and this season will be remembered as progress and growing, with a bright future. A loss to BC confuses Irish fans - and this confusion officially opens the debate on the question all Irish fans fear - Is Charlie the right coach? I guess we could lose to BC and then win out, including a bowl game - certainly that finish with conjure feelings that I liken with a victory over BC. But in reality, if the Irish lose to BC, they are not ready to be anything but 6-6 or 7-5.

Score prediction time. I think this game is going to be a good one, but one that is more about BC stumbles and Notre Dame capitalizing on easy chances than anything else.

IRISH 31 BC 24

(Record in games straight up picking the winner is 6-2. Record against the point spread is 5-3. I predicted wrongly that the Irish would beat North Carolina and Pitt, and I failed to pick the spread winner in the Mich St game, the Stanford game, and the Pitt game.)

Shaq Fu

This morning Notre Dame received another committ for its 2010 class in Shaquelle Evans, WR from Inglewood, California. The 6 ' 1" 203 pound wideout is a huge get for the Irish, especially since it marks another California recruiting victory head to head over USC. Evans was a former "soft verbal" of USC, until he took his official visit to Notre Dame and was blown away.

Here are the recruiting rankings and profile links on Evans - Scout.com ranks him a 4 star, and the #8 WR in the nation. Rivals.com ranks Evans as the #7 WR in the country, also a 4 star (rated #51 prospect overall). ESPN Recruiting ranks Evans as the #3 WR in the country, #21 prospect overall (note that the ESPN Recruiting link includes free video highlights - pretty cool). And for those of you that don't believe in recruiting rankings, the kid had offers from Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, Michigan, UNLV, Cal, Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon, Colorado, and Notre Dame. So obviously, there peoples that think this kid can play.

The more elite WR talent Charlie can collect, the more problems defenses will have against the Irish. Matchup up "Shaq's" talents with Michael Floyd and Golden Tate will cause stopping the Notre Dame offense to be as difficult as solving the Pythagorean theorem. Now for some Shaq quotes:

Lets hope Shaq can be half as good as the real Shaq. I am going to have a lot of fun with the name "Shaq" over the next four years.