Saturday the Irish play the team that I believe is the best team on their 12 game schedule - the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal is #18 in the country, and has killed mediocre competition in 3 games thus far. 35-0 against UCLA, 68-24 over Wake Forest, and a thumping of Sacramento State. At the helm of the Stanford Cardinal is the player Mel Kiper Jr ranks as the #2 ranked player for the NFL Draft (as a sophomore), quarterback Andrew Luck. Understandably the Irish are 6pt underdogs at home.
Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority, with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs). But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played.
So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average. Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense. I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course.
With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.
Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford.
Vatican Smoke Prediction:
IRISH 38 STANFORD 35
(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)
Friday, September 24, 2010
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Faked Out
Another game, another heartbreak. The Irish loss in overtime and in a new fashion to Michigan St on Saturday night, falling 34-31 on a 29 yard fake field goal touchdown in overtime. Even though the playclock read zero as the final play began, no penalty was called - which apparently is the correct call, according to the Big East. I could make endless jokes about the "lag" concept, but am going to leave the whole playclock issue alone. The Irish could have done just 1 thing to have avoided that situation - scored a TD in overtime, defended the fake field goal, or won the game in regulation, so the playclock passing doesn't really bother me. As always, there were mixed emotions following this one.
Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life - we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll - all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.
The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.
The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.
This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.
Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life - we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll - all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.
The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.
The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.
This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Michigan St Preview
A late game preview from the Vatican for tonights game pitting the Irish against the Spartans up in East Lansing (many of you might get this via email on Sunday, but note that it was submitted at 640pm ET). Here's to my prediction not being accurate.
This series has been crazy, with 8 of the last 12 being decided by 7 points or less. I do not expect this game to be a blowout either way - perhaps another classic in the series. The Spartans have experience at all offensive positions, and a fantastic run game - while the Irish have plenty of offense themselves. On defense, the Spartans have some vulnerability to the pass, but overall have an edge on the Irish defense. Combine that with a rowdy night crowd up in East Lansing, and you have a Spartans team poised to beat up on the Irish on national television.
The last 3 night games in East Lansing have all ended the same way - with an Irish victory. When faced with very difficult circumstances the past few years, the Irish have responded - certainly making most every game close, but not being able to convert the majority of these games into victories. I expect the Irish to make this game close, and whether or not the Irish can get a stop or score late in the game will be the difference or lack of difference in the game. Irish fans long for the day when the Irish close in the 4th quarter - making that big stop or getting that big score that finishes off the opposition.
I am not sure tonight is that night. While I think the game will be close, and I would not be surprised by a sound Irish victory, I think Michigan St's experience will be the difference tonight. Lets hope Im wrong:
Michigan St 31 Notre Dame 27
(record 1-1 straight up, 0-1-1 ATS)
This series has been crazy, with 8 of the last 12 being decided by 7 points or less. I do not expect this game to be a blowout either way - perhaps another classic in the series. The Spartans have experience at all offensive positions, and a fantastic run game - while the Irish have plenty of offense themselves. On defense, the Spartans have some vulnerability to the pass, but overall have an edge on the Irish defense. Combine that with a rowdy night crowd up in East Lansing, and you have a Spartans team poised to beat up on the Irish on national television.
The last 3 night games in East Lansing have all ended the same way - with an Irish victory. When faced with very difficult circumstances the past few years, the Irish have responded - certainly making most every game close, but not being able to convert the majority of these games into victories. I expect the Irish to make this game close, and whether or not the Irish can get a stop or score late in the game will be the difference or lack of difference in the game. Irish fans long for the day when the Irish close in the 4th quarter - making that big stop or getting that big score that finishes off the opposition.
I am not sure tonight is that night. While I think the game will be close, and I would not be surprised by a sound Irish victory, I think Michigan St's experience will be the difference tonight. Lets hope Im wrong:
Michigan St 31 Notre Dame 27
(record 1-1 straight up, 0-1-1 ATS)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Moving Forward
Another tough loss for the Irish against the Wolverines this past weekend, 28-24. Too many tough losses in the past few years unfortunately make this loss blend in with many others. I do think the loss was different, and there are some positives to take away from the game. Whether the Irish can right the ship in the next 4 critical games - night game at Michigan St, vs Stanford, at Boston College, and vs Pitt - all losable - will determine whether these positive signs were in fact reality.
Dayne Crist provides us with a few positives and one major negative. The bad news was that Dayne did not play on 8 of ND 's 15 possessions, as he had "blurred vision and swelling of the face". I want to say he needs to be tougher than that, but no one knows the details of his injury. One major piece of good news was that the Irish were 1 stop, 1 play, or 1 coaching decision away from having a great shot at winning the game - despite only having Crist for 7/15 drives. The Irish only scored with Dayne in the game, as he directed the Irish to scores on 4 of his 7 drives. Certainly with Crist in the game a few more drives, the Irish likely beat Michigan - especially considering 14 of Michigan's points came after turnovers by ND's backup QBs. Dayne's play was not perfect by any stretch, but the Irish look to have an eventual 5 star caliber QB on their hands the next 3 seasons.
Another very refreshing aspect of the game was the 2nd half adjustments and overall defensive play. The Irish did not make the key stop in the 4th quarter that they needed - a common trend with prior years unfortunately. But in limiting the Wolverines to only 7 2nd half points (the final touchdown), the Irish defense gave the offense a chance to take the lead and win the game. One major adjustment I saw while at the game was on the defensive line - as the Irish shifted all 3-4 down lineman towards the strong side of the field just before the snap. The shift gave the offensive line for Michigan some trouble, and it particularly helped the additional blitzing Bob Diaco brought in the 2nd half. Even though Michigan missed a few field goals, the Irish stopped the Wolverines on some big 3rd downs in the 2nd half.
Besides the inability to stop the Wolverines at the end of the game, some of the execution and coaching concerned me a bit. Brian Kelly revealed this week that the defensive backs were lined up to the outside, not the inside as called, on the key 3rd down conversion by Michigan in the 4th. In addition, BK mentioned a few other coverages that were perfectly called but just not executed on that final drive. Maybe the defense was tired, but executing a good play call with the game on the line needs to be an area where we dont make mistakes. The coaching decision I had issue with was not kicking the field goal before halftime, with the Irish on the Wolverine 3 yard line with 3 seconds left. Brian Kelly said he "never considered the field goal" - largely due to his not knowing whether Crist could return to the game. I said it before the play and after, that was a huge mistake - mostly for the fact that Nate Montana, the Irish 3rd string QB, had been erratic at best thus far. Reward your team and take the 3 points there. Those 3 points could have given the Irish a 37 yarder at the end of the game to WIN - had the game proceeded the same way. Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 19 years, so I trust his decisions and realize he makes them with more information and experience than I will ever have. This is just my view from the back row of the stadium.
A good comeback spoiled is all too common - but I think there are some good things brewing. Weis rarely corrected issues that surfaced, or made adjustments during the game or season. The next 4 games will provide us a glimpse as to whether Brian Kelly can reverse this trend.
Dayne Crist provides us with a few positives and one major negative. The bad news was that Dayne did not play on 8 of ND 's 15 possessions, as he had "blurred vision and swelling of the face". I want to say he needs to be tougher than that, but no one knows the details of his injury. One major piece of good news was that the Irish were 1 stop, 1 play, or 1 coaching decision away from having a great shot at winning the game - despite only having Crist for 7/15 drives. The Irish only scored with Dayne in the game, as he directed the Irish to scores on 4 of his 7 drives. Certainly with Crist in the game a few more drives, the Irish likely beat Michigan - especially considering 14 of Michigan's points came after turnovers by ND's backup QBs. Dayne's play was not perfect by any stretch, but the Irish look to have an eventual 5 star caliber QB on their hands the next 3 seasons.
Another very refreshing aspect of the game was the 2nd half adjustments and overall defensive play. The Irish did not make the key stop in the 4th quarter that they needed - a common trend with prior years unfortunately. But in limiting the Wolverines to only 7 2nd half points (the final touchdown), the Irish defense gave the offense a chance to take the lead and win the game. One major adjustment I saw while at the game was on the defensive line - as the Irish shifted all 3-4 down lineman towards the strong side of the field just before the snap. The shift gave the offensive line for Michigan some trouble, and it particularly helped the additional blitzing Bob Diaco brought in the 2nd half. Even though Michigan missed a few field goals, the Irish stopped the Wolverines on some big 3rd downs in the 2nd half.
Besides the inability to stop the Wolverines at the end of the game, some of the execution and coaching concerned me a bit. Brian Kelly revealed this week that the defensive backs were lined up to the outside, not the inside as called, on the key 3rd down conversion by Michigan in the 4th. In addition, BK mentioned a few other coverages that were perfectly called but just not executed on that final drive. Maybe the defense was tired, but executing a good play call with the game on the line needs to be an area where we dont make mistakes. The coaching decision I had issue with was not kicking the field goal before halftime, with the Irish on the Wolverine 3 yard line with 3 seconds left. Brian Kelly said he "never considered the field goal" - largely due to his not knowing whether Crist could return to the game. I said it before the play and after, that was a huge mistake - mostly for the fact that Nate Montana, the Irish 3rd string QB, had been erratic at best thus far. Reward your team and take the 3 points there. Those 3 points could have given the Irish a 37 yarder at the end of the game to WIN - had the game proceeded the same way. Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 19 years, so I trust his decisions and realize he makes them with more information and experience than I will ever have. This is just my view from the back row of the stadium.
A good comeback spoiled is all too common - but I think there are some good things brewing. Weis rarely corrected issues that surfaced, or made adjustments during the game or season. The next 4 games will provide us a glimpse as to whether Brian Kelly can reverse this trend.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Bend, not Break
For some time, its been said that Notre Dame's defense was a bend but not break unit. I think that term applies to every bad defense - but should it? Last two year's have seen Notre Dame defenses ranked in the bottom third of division 1-A - which to me, is a broken, bent over defense. While the personnel on defense has dictated a possible bend not break strategy as a solution, Jon Tenuta (ex Irish DC) did not take that approach with his planning - preferring aggression and blitzing on all downs. The past two years felt like Jon Tenuta was trying to beat someone up with a pillow - swinging hard and often, but forgetting that he didn't have the tools to execute.
After one game, and through the many preseason and midweek interviews of Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco, the Irish truly appear to be a defense looking to mitigate its weaknesses, and reacting to the offense - rather than ignoring them and trying to dictate to the difficult to stop spread offenses in college football. Against Purdue, the Irish avoided giving up the big play or giving up much against the run - essentially shifting their weakness towards the short pass.
How will the Irish adapt their defensive approach to the Wolverines on Saturday at 330pm ET? I expect a similar approach - preventing the deep pass or long run, while giving up short passes - which in Michigan's case, are often short QB runs. Look for Michigan to get their yards and their points, but for the Irish defensive approach in the red zone to be the difference in the game. Giving Denard Robinson a huge spread out zone inside the red zone - forcing him to make a difficult pass, while also watching his every move - should give the Irish a good chance for an interception or holding Michigan to a few field goals.
On offense, I don't see how Michigan can cover ND's WRs. They couldn't last year, having one of the worst pass defenses the Irish faced all season (Navy was light years better against the pass). This year, Michigan has only 2 scholarship CBs. The question is not if Irish WRs will be open, but whether we can protect Crist and whether he'll hit them. I think a very good, not great day from Crist, combined with another balanced, workman like day from the running game, will give the Irish all the points they need.
With the weather potentially wet - look for the passing games to become easier, while the running games become more difficult. Advantage Irish. Its also nice to know that the Irish special teams are likely going to be prepared and able to execute - whereas the 2009 team gave up critical field position and a TD return to Michigan. The underdog performs well in this series, so nothing should be taken for granted; but on paper and based on what we know about Brian Kelly and his staff, I see a great opportunity for the Irish.
Prediction:
IRISH 31 MICHIGAN 20
(For the season, 1-0 in predictions straight up, 0-0-1 against the spread)
After one game, and through the many preseason and midweek interviews of Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco, the Irish truly appear to be a defense looking to mitigate its weaknesses, and reacting to the offense - rather than ignoring them and trying to dictate to the difficult to stop spread offenses in college football. Against Purdue, the Irish avoided giving up the big play or giving up much against the run - essentially shifting their weakness towards the short pass.
How will the Irish adapt their defensive approach to the Wolverines on Saturday at 330pm ET? I expect a similar approach - preventing the deep pass or long run, while giving up short passes - which in Michigan's case, are often short QB runs. Look for Michigan to get their yards and their points, but for the Irish defensive approach in the red zone to be the difference in the game. Giving Denard Robinson a huge spread out zone inside the red zone - forcing him to make a difficult pass, while also watching his every move - should give the Irish a good chance for an interception or holding Michigan to a few field goals.
On offense, I don't see how Michigan can cover ND's WRs. They couldn't last year, having one of the worst pass defenses the Irish faced all season (Navy was light years better against the pass). This year, Michigan has only 2 scholarship CBs. The question is not if Irish WRs will be open, but whether we can protect Crist and whether he'll hit them. I think a very good, not great day from Crist, combined with another balanced, workman like day from the running game, will give the Irish all the points they need.
With the weather potentially wet - look for the passing games to become easier, while the running games become more difficult. Advantage Irish. Its also nice to know that the Irish special teams are likely going to be prepared and able to execute - whereas the 2009 team gave up critical field position and a TD return to Michigan. The underdog performs well in this series, so nothing should be taken for granted; but on paper and based on what we know about Brian Kelly and his staff, I see a great opportunity for the Irish.
Prediction:
IRISH 31 MICHIGAN 20
(For the season, 1-0 in predictions straight up, 0-0-1 against the spread)
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Purdue Pregame
Great video footage of UND.com that goes into the Irish lockeroom before the game to watch Brian Kelly's pregame speech, as well as Coach Kelly's first tap on the "Play Like a Champion" sign. Worth the 5 minutes.
Substance, not Style
The Irish beat the Purdue Boilermakers 23-12 on Saturday to start the Brian Kelly era off 1-0. The offense was balanced (160 yards rushing, 200 passing), and the defense only allowed 10 points to the Purdue offense. For once, the Irish won the special teams battle - returning 2 kickoffs for 50 yards, and 1 punt for 38 yards. Overall the performance was solid in all three phases - but spectacular in none. In fact, the spectacular was that the Irish was not the schizophrenic team we saw under Charlie Weis. Kelly's team closed the game out in the 4th quarter - when previous Irish teams may have lost it. Where style points were lacking, substance prevailed.
The all around solid play is a reflection of coaching more than anything else. Coaches must have the football knowledge to deploy, but they also must have intimate knowledge of both their own troops and the opposition. Weis and Kelly both know football - but it feels as though Kelly is better able to manage his teams weaknesses, as opposed to the Weis approach of that more ingenuity cures all ills. The Irish defense struggled with big plays and stopping the run last year. Kelly knows this, but also knows you cannot stop everything an offense throws at you without giving up something. The Irish defense focused on the run, while employing a cushioned zone with safeties deep much of the game - preventing many of the big plays and consistent running for Purdue. Purdue took the short passes - with Marve completing 31 of 42 pass attempts, but for only 220 yards. Make them complete 10 short passes instead of 1 or 2 - in the hopes that you can get pressure on a play here or there and stop the drive. The long 3rd quarter drive by Purdue that eventually ended in an interception after 15 plays was a perfect example of a defensive gameplan working.
Substance - not style - is what we saw from the Irish. Michigan - this week's opponent if you need reminding - looked spectacular in their besting of UConn this past weekend 30-10. Style yes - but substance? That remains to be seen. Even Michigan fans know that running their QB 29 times is not likely to end well over the course of a Big 10 season. While Denard Robinson passed amazingly well also (19 for 22), no other Michigan RB got more than 3.5yards a carry. Meanwhile, UConn was gaining 5 yards per carry yet fumbling inside the 10 and being unable to convert or defend 3rd downs. Giving up critical 3rd and 15s on broken running plays to Robinson revealed an unprepared UConn defense. Expect Brian Kelly to focus heavily on containing Denard Robinson - and not being stupid enough to think we can stop him. Giving up short precision throws while keeping him in front of our linebackers as much as possible, is likely the approach the Irish use. Expect some long Michigan drives that eventually stall in the red zone - where the Irish have less field to cover and Robinson has to be more accurate with his passes. How Notre Dame on offense converts in the red zone will be the key to what I expect to be a close game. More to come in the game preview later this week.
The all around solid play is a reflection of coaching more than anything else. Coaches must have the football knowledge to deploy, but they also must have intimate knowledge of both their own troops and the opposition. Weis and Kelly both know football - but it feels as though Kelly is better able to manage his teams weaknesses, as opposed to the Weis approach of that more ingenuity cures all ills. The Irish defense struggled with big plays and stopping the run last year. Kelly knows this, but also knows you cannot stop everything an offense throws at you without giving up something. The Irish defense focused on the run, while employing a cushioned zone with safeties deep much of the game - preventing many of the big plays and consistent running for Purdue. Purdue took the short passes - with Marve completing 31 of 42 pass attempts, but for only 220 yards. Make them complete 10 short passes instead of 1 or 2 - in the hopes that you can get pressure on a play here or there and stop the drive. The long 3rd quarter drive by Purdue that eventually ended in an interception after 15 plays was a perfect example of a defensive gameplan working.
Substance - not style - is what we saw from the Irish. Michigan - this week's opponent if you need reminding - looked spectacular in their besting of UConn this past weekend 30-10. Style yes - but substance? That remains to be seen. Even Michigan fans know that running their QB 29 times is not likely to end well over the course of a Big 10 season. While Denard Robinson passed amazingly well also (19 for 22), no other Michigan RB got more than 3.5yards a carry. Meanwhile, UConn was gaining 5 yards per carry yet fumbling inside the 10 and being unable to convert or defend 3rd downs. Giving up critical 3rd and 15s on broken running plays to Robinson revealed an unprepared UConn defense. Expect Brian Kelly to focus heavily on containing Denard Robinson - and not being stupid enough to think we can stop him. Giving up short precision throws while keeping him in front of our linebackers as much as possible, is likely the approach the Irish use. Expect some long Michigan drives that eventually stall in the red zone - where the Irish have less field to cover and Robinson has to be more accurate with his passes. How Notre Dame on offense converts in the red zone will be the key to what I expect to be a close game. More to come in the game preview later this week.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Purdue Game Preview
The Brian Kelly era begins Saturday at 330pm ET on NBC against the Boilermakers of Purdue. Typically a new coach is always given some time to get his system in order before the expectations rise; however, many Irish fans see a manageable schedule and a fairly talented roster at BK's disposal, changing things a bit for a hyped up fan base.
No matter which way you slice it, Notre Dame is a more talented team than Pittsburgh. Just ask Scouts, Inc. & ESPN, here. The Irish have the "edge" in 7 of 9 possible categories, and is favored by 11 points. While certainly this game is clearly winnable for Notre Dame, Purdue is still a Big 10 program that was within a field goal and a minute of beating Oregon last year - and actually beat Ohio State by 12. Brian Kelly should win his opener, but he better hope the troops are ready.
The history of this matchup points towards the Irish. The team favored has won by more than 13 points in 6 of the last 7 years - with last years last minute TD by the Irish being the exception. Purdue traditionally has done very poorly in Notre Dame Stadium - winning just twice since 1974. Purdue also has to deal with a new QB making his first road start, as well coach Danny Hope visiting Notre Dame Stadium for the first time.
For Purdue to win . . . turnovers & Marve. Marve will have to play up to his recruiting billing, making plays with his feet and getting the ball to Purdue's strong WR corp. The Boilers will have to win the turnover battle to have a chance in this game - with Marve leading the way.
For Notre Dame to win . . . contain Marve and run the ball. With Purdue losing its top back from last year, as well as its #2 in an offseason injury, the running game likely will not be overpowering. A weakness last year for the Irish was defending the running QB - so lets hope the Irish have fixed the issue with a running QB. Making Marve sit in the pocket and pass should give the Irish some chances to make a big play. Running the ball against Purdue last year was not an issue - so I expect the Irish to have success again on the ground and opening up Brian Kelly's passing game even more.
Brian Kelly teams are not shy or timid - and the offenses go full speed trying to score as quickly as possible. Look for Notre Dame to have control with an early lead - coasting the rest of the game. Winning the turnover battle and special teams game, along with a few big plays from Michael Floyd and the shift slot WR Theo Riddick, will give BK the dominating opening win that he wants. Look for Purdue to have serious issues defending anything Notre Dame does - as well as Notre Dame #2s to get some action.
Original Prediction: ND 34 Purdue 24
Gameweek Prediction: Irish 38 Purdue 20
No matter which way you slice it, Notre Dame is a more talented team than Pittsburgh. Just ask Scouts, Inc. & ESPN, here. The Irish have the "edge" in 7 of 9 possible categories, and is favored by 11 points. While certainly this game is clearly winnable for Notre Dame, Purdue is still a Big 10 program that was within a field goal and a minute of beating Oregon last year - and actually beat Ohio State by 12. Brian Kelly should win his opener, but he better hope the troops are ready.
The history of this matchup points towards the Irish. The team favored has won by more than 13 points in 6 of the last 7 years - with last years last minute TD by the Irish being the exception. Purdue traditionally has done very poorly in Notre Dame Stadium - winning just twice since 1974. Purdue also has to deal with a new QB making his first road start, as well coach Danny Hope visiting Notre Dame Stadium for the first time.
For Purdue to win . . . turnovers & Marve. Marve will have to play up to his recruiting billing, making plays with his feet and getting the ball to Purdue's strong WR corp. The Boilers will have to win the turnover battle to have a chance in this game - with Marve leading the way.
For Notre Dame to win . . . contain Marve and run the ball. With Purdue losing its top back from last year, as well as its #2 in an offseason injury, the running game likely will not be overpowering. A weakness last year for the Irish was defending the running QB - so lets hope the Irish have fixed the issue with a running QB. Making Marve sit in the pocket and pass should give the Irish some chances to make a big play. Running the ball against Purdue last year was not an issue - so I expect the Irish to have success again on the ground and opening up Brian Kelly's passing game even more.
Brian Kelly teams are not shy or timid - and the offenses go full speed trying to score as quickly as possible. Look for Notre Dame to have control with an early lead - coasting the rest of the game. Winning the turnover battle and special teams game, along with a few big plays from Michael Floyd and the shift slot WR Theo Riddick, will give BK the dominating opening win that he wants. Look for Purdue to have serious issues defending anything Notre Dame does - as well as Notre Dame #2s to get some action.
Original Prediction: ND 34 Purdue 24
Gameweek Prediction: Irish 38 Purdue 20
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