Changing the Culture - 2010 Season Prediction

Before diving into my 2010 season predictions for the Irish, I wanted to share the predictions of long time ND beat writer Al Lesar from the South Bend Tribune - who gives a game by game prediction in this article in the SB Tribune last week. 


Lesar predicts the Irish to go 8-4 - losing to Utah, Stanford, Michigan St, and Boston College, while defeating Michigan, USC, and Pittsburgh. Its hard to agree or disagree with Mr. Lesar's predictions at this point. No one has what we really need to predict the Irish win total - an answer to the question, "Has Brian Kelly changed the culture of this program?" A "No" means that we should expect the same erratic performances as last year - moments of brilliance followed by excruciating ones - creating a close game against Purdue as well as USC. Until the Irish can stop losing, as Brian Kelly has said during the spring and summer, we cant move forward towards winning. 


With that key question in mind, lets begin the season prediction - starting at talent vs our opponents. While its debatable, majority of experts will agree that the Irish are more talented man for man than 5 opponents - Purdue, Western Michigan, Tulsa, Navy, and Army (save the Navy jokes, please) - on par with 6 opponents - Michigan (debatable), Michigan St, Stanford, Boston College, Pitt, Utah - and a bit behind 1 opponent - USC (debatable). The Irish return 8 or more starters on both sides of the ball in 2010 - which could be considered good or bad. The good news is that in 2009, the Irish had the ball in the final moments with a chance to win each of the 6 games they lost (yep, every single one of them); the bad news is that 4 of the Irish wins of 2009 were the opposite - holding on for dear life or scoring in the final minute. While the Irish might not have a talent surplus, in 2009 they certainly did not have a talent deficit.


While many point to a talent as the reason for losing, I point to shortcomings of the emotional, motivational, and mental variety that together comprise the "culture" of the program. So we come back to the key question - has BK been able to change the culture of the Irish program? We won't know for awhile, but chances are high that Brian Kelly knows how. While he hasn't seen the level of scrutiny he will find at ND, he has been a college head coach  - not an assistant, but a head coach - for 19 seasons. Given his level of experience and success, I expect nothing less than for this team to play a higher percentage of games at their maximum potential - as opposed to playing down to the level of the competition like the 2009 team.  Also, I expect losses - yes, I expect these - to be more about the other team's performance, rather than an Irish collapse or self inflicted wounds. The victories will be more emphatic and less hanging on for dear life. As the season progresses, there will be improvement and tangible evidence of learning from earlier mistakes. In short, I expect the Irish program to get back to discussions about our talent, and not our coaching. 


With that in mind, the Vatican Smoke official preseason prediction:

• vs. Purdue  (W  34-24)
• vs. Michigan  (W  38-17)
• at Michigan St  (L  24-21)
• vs Stanford  (W  28-24)
• at Boston College (W  28-20)
• vs. Pittsburgh (L  27-24)
• vs Western Michigan  (W 42-17)
• vs Navy  (W 49-28)
• vs Tulsa  (W 42-24)
• vs Utah  (L 31-28 OT)
• vs Army (W 45-17)
• at USC (W 24-21 OT)
• 9 wins, 3 losses

Color me biased. Lots of high scores eh? The Irish were close to going 9-3 or 10-2 last year - but also very close to going 4-8. I think Brian Kelly closes the gap and takes a comparably to slightly less talented 2009 team, and turns them into the foundation for long term program success. The key pieces of the offense are all back - except the big one. Where the passing game steps back a good bit because of Clausen's departure, the passing scheme of Brian Kelly - combined with the newfound ability to run the football - combine to fill the void. Saturday at 330pm ET, maybe this 9-3 prediction will start to look really good . . . or worse. 

Star Power

Busy day today at Vatican Smoke with not one but two posts in one day. Recruiting rankings are a tenuous topic among many old school and new school college fans. This article in the Wall Street Journal was not surprising to me, although it might be to some.

I have always contended that recruiting rankings on a micro level - for one player - are certainly not perfect projections of that player's potential. However, Rivals and other sites have shown that the chances of making the NFL are higher for 5 stars than 3 stars - significantly in fact. From the 2010 NFL draft's first round, only 1 player was not a 3 star or higher coming out of high school; and since there are only 20 to 25 5 stars nationally per year, the 5 star still had the highest % chance of being drafted in the 1st round.

While there are numerous 5 star busts and 3 star players that make the NFL, the recruiting ranking that really matters is the class ranking for a program - over time. In the Wall Street Journal article from the top, the average star rating for starters is compared for the top schools. Not surprisingly, USC and Florida top the list, followed by Texas, Alabama, LSU, and the rest of the SEC. Yet interestingly enough, the Irish are 3rd. The anti-recruiting ranking folks will point to a potential Irish bias in recruiting rankings - getting higher marks than they deserve. The pro-recruiting folks - myself included - point to the lack of development and good enough coaching. Brian Kelly has developed talent everywhere he has coached, which means the pro-recruiting contingent now has a chance to see whether the Irish recruiting rankings were accurate and Weis did not develop them, or that Irish players get too generous a bump when they commit (which I contend is the opposite of what happens). I hope we see the former validated.

Speed It Up NBC

Below is an article on a topic that I have been hearing rumblings on for a week or so. A few Irish beat writers wondered whether the long NBC telecasts would be especially harmful to the no huddle Brian Kelly offense. Another really good article here from Blue Gold Illustrated about the NBC question. 


Certainly NBC's long timeouts pose an interesting wrinkle for a new no huddle offensive attack that is built to capitalize on the opponent's defense tiring. A TV timeout during an Irish scoring drive gives the defense rest and time to regroup. The same thing happens in the NCAA Basketball tournament, when CBS commercials enter the equation for many teams who benefit from the numerous TV timeouts. I don't know how important this really is, and I guess its likely preseason fodder for Irish fans hungry for September 4th. But I think its interesting because its obviously important enough for Brian Kelly and Jack Swarbrick to take time out and have discussions with NBC. 


Helping the Irish offense aside, whether in the stadium or on your couch, I think we all agree that fewer TV timeouts and a tighter broadcast would be beneficial. NBC telecasts, while feeling like an hour longer than an ESPN game, are only 20 minutes longer on average. I was surprised at that. Hopefully the gap will continue to close, and I think BK's offense only provides a bit more pressure to NBC to speed things up. 

Either Or

Probably not many fans are more happy to have the previous season behind them than Irish fans. The past few weeks, I have probably read as many articles and news stories about Notre Dame football and college football than any other time of the year. Nothing is more speculative than a preseason preview from anyone - especially a beat writer, blogger, or even a coach. 


Brian Kelly addressed the media last Friday before the first day of practice - his press conference detailed in this Chicago Sun Times piece from Rick Morrissey. Pay attention to the "Simply Being Realistic" section. Kelly details what he thinks are some strengths, but also candidly details some vulnerabilities. After the past 3 seasons, everyone knows the Irish have some weak points - but with a new regime and system, not everyone knows what they are (besides overall talent of course). Kelly gave what appears to be an honest assessment of the Irish weaknesses - first being the obvious lack of experience at QB, but also depth along the defensive line, consistency in the secondary, and consistency at kicker. 


The most important of all those vulnerabilities is easily experience at QB. Dayne Crist has played in just 4 games, and only attempted 20 passes. Certainly he will be in a spread offense that is QB friendly, but his play will be critical. Depth on the defensive line, while important, becomes less important as the Irish shift back to the 3-4 defense the majority of the defensive players were recruited for (not to mention there's only 3 spots now). Kicking consistency is also important, but in my opinion such a lesser issue. Kicking is scrutinized more on bad teams - which the Irish have been the past few years. The kicking question is more reflective of all the close games the Irish played in the last two seasons. 


Secondary consistency is the key question for me, beyond QB play. The old defensive adage of stopping the run first is certainly still valid, but to a lesser extent. Teams kill you with the pass now - while the run is merely an accomplice. Bob Diaco (Irish defensive coordinator) hopefully worked his butt off all summer trying to answer the question - how can we get better at defending the pass? I don't have the answer, but I can help him in this regard: the Irish cant get much worse than 76th in FBS at 228 yards per game. Improvement is likely with any new scheme. But don't get too excited - as Cincinnati ranked 78th in the country last year in pass defense. 


Last year's defense had nothing to hang their hat on - as Weis used to say. You cant be bad against the run - 89th in the country - as well as bad against the pass. Hopefully Diaco & co are figuring out a way to at least be solid in one area. If the Irish can defend either or, they should be in good shape to at least have a chance at the Vegas over/under 8 win total. But then again, nothing's more speculative than a blogger in August. 

Color Commentating

Mike Mayock

NBC replaced the vacated color commentator seat on its Notre Dame telecast with Mike Mayock - former Boston College star and current NFL Network analyst. The seat was previously held by Pat Hayden, who recently departed to take the clean up job as the USC Director of Athletics. Good articles in the South Bend Tribune here, and also a more in depth article at Blue Gold here going into Mayock's background, which included 25 years of football broadcasting at the college & pro levels. 

Pat Hayden did a good job providing balanced commentary and was even accused of being biased against Notre Dame at times. NBC clearly wanted to keep the color commentary seat as objective and unoffensive as possible. Two candidates I would have preferred - Joe Theismann and Chris Collinsworth - both have very strong qualifications, but also very strong ties to Notre Dame (Collinsworth's son Austin is a freshman WR, Theismann is obvious). These guys are very opinionated and naturally pro Irish. Each of these guys, while very educated and articulate about the game, likely would alienate a few viewers - particularly non-Notre Dame fans.

While I would prefer that NBC would have hired to please the Notre Dame fan base first, I get what NBC is shooting for. We're always going to watch the Irish play on NBC - but the fringe fans, or the opposing fans, are the ones that NBC doesn't want to piss off. Hiring a Boston College or USC grad is a solid start, and ensuring the hire is not overly offensive or unlikable is the key. NBC did that with Pat Hayden, and I presume so with Mike Mayock. From the looks of his qualifications (25 years in broadcasting), I would say he is going to be very familiar with both the college and pro game, and should be a very professional, likable, and down the middle hire. He might not be as entertaining for Notre Dame fans as Theismann would have, but he is probably going to be better for NBCs ratings in the casual viewer base. Now we all know the easiest way to increase NBCs ratings - lets hope Brian Kelly and Co. are working on that now, as fall camp opened yesterday. Best of luck to Mayock this fall. 

Scheduling Chess

Notre Dame announced its second major scheduling addition in the past month, as the Irish have inked a 4 game home and home series with Texas. The Irish will host the Longhorns in 2015 and 2020, while Texas is at home for 2016 and 2019. This comes after a 3 game agreement with the Miami Hurricanes earlier this summer (Soldier Field in 2012, then home and home in 2016-17). Both of these games will be fantastic opportunities for the Irish, and definitely will get the TV ratings any network will enjoy.

Compared to the Irish 2010 slate of home games versus Western Michigan, Tulsa, and Utah, new Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick is clearly reverting back to the old ND “play anyone anywhere” scheduling philosophy. Traditionally, ND always played a schedule that was above reproach, giving the Irish a baseline of respect with college football fans and conferences. Lately, weakened traditional opponents and a watered down scheduling philosophy by the former athletics director Kevin White have helped put Notre Dame in a weaker position at the BCS / conference realignment discussion table. Certainly losing has hurt our position the most, but the knocks on our schedule have personally been almost as difficult to handle for many Irish fans.  

Lets assume the Irish will always be relevant, with a large, national following. In order to remain independent and in a position of strength with conference realignment and the BCS, the Irish first and foremost need to win more. A close second is that we schedule a competitive slate of opponents. Opponents of Irish independence have long thought that the exception made for Notre Dame was unfair. Weak scheduling will only give them more leverage, pointing to the Irish having an even easier path to the BCS. Scheduling powers like Texas and Miami is a step in the right direction of taking back the ground we’ve given up with our scheduling.

With a tough slate of games giving the Irish some respectibility, the Irish will have one less thing to worry about when it comes to the future of the BCS and conferences. Whether we will be independent in 10 years, I don’t know. But when we remain included in the next BCS, or we join a conference, a strong schedule can only validate what we do on the field. Speaking of that, with the upcoming schedules for the Irish, now we just have to win football games. We all know how difficult that’s been the last few years.