Western Michigan Broncos trot into South Bend on Saturday for the first patsy game for the Irish this season - unless you count Purdue. As the Irish face their first non-BCS foe this year, many would expect a let down. Believe it or not, the Irish have underperformed against bad BCS conference teams, rather than non-BCS ones. And Brian Kelly, being a former non-BCS team coach seems to have a healthy appreciation of not giving these teams any hope of an upset. Brian Kelly spoke last week about how he understands how little a team like Western Michigan has to lose - and you can tell he knew this from his experiences at Grand Valley State and Central Michigan.
Not much analysis here. The Irish haven't had a game to really work on their offense against an inferior opponent - unlike any other team in the country. I expect the Irish to score 40 or maybe 50 points, and this be a 30pt blowout that we wouldn't see from past years Irish teams. Hope its fun to watch, but only for Irish fans:
IRISH 45 Western Michigan 17
Straight up 4-2, 2-2-2 ATS
Friday, October 15, 2010
Friday, October 8, 2010
'Stache Invasion
Coming off a dominating victory against Boston College that the Irish had to have, Pitt awaits Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday at 330pmET. The Irish should have some confidence after handily beating an opponent- albeit a team without a passing game that the Irish rightly were expected to drill.
The key question in my mind is - Can the Irish dominate a solid opponent in Notre Dame Stadium? Night games on the road seem to bring out the best in the Irish - maybe not always wins, but at least solid efforts and close losses. Notre Dame stadium is where the Irish have struggled against both superior and inferior opponents - never able to beat anyone handily. The missing ingredient seems to be emotion - which is easy to muster up when you are on the road and at night than it has been for the Irish at home. While certainly Notre Dame Stadium is a very tame environment to play in, its up to the coaches and players to find that emotion, that intensity from somewhere. Otherwise playing afternoon games in Notre Dame Stadium will continue to be a drag.
Pitt at home will be a great test for the Irish - who will have to play solid football to win this game. If the Irish play inconsistent or average football, they will lose another close one against a Pitt team that has some talent. But if the Irish can get fired up and amp up the level of intensity & emotion - like Brian Kelly was seen displaying on the sidelines during the Boston College game - Notre Dame should win this game by 10 points. Funny how Brian Kelly's most animated game all season was probably our best as a team. Expect a fired up coach that hopefully will be an example for the rest of the team come Saturday.
Pitt is a similar but better team than Boston College - with two proven running backs and some defensive talent all over. Pitt has trouble on both lines, as well as at QB. Expect the Irish to guard against the Pitt rushing attack, while playing soft coverage on their top WR Jonathan Baldwin. Whether Pitt can muster a passing attack will be the key to the game for both teams. If the Irish can keep Pitt under 20 points, the Irish should win; otherwise, all bets are off, and the game will likely go down to the wire.
I predict an average offensive day from the Irish - but a scoreboard that looks better because of some big defensive and special teams play. A comfortable win, but not terribly impressive given how poorly Pitt has played this season. Like my dress shirt size, I expect a score of . . .
IRISH 33 PITT 17
(straight up pick, 3-2 for the year, ATS 2-2-1)
The key question in my mind is - Can the Irish dominate a solid opponent in Notre Dame Stadium? Night games on the road seem to bring out the best in the Irish - maybe not always wins, but at least solid efforts and close losses. Notre Dame stadium is where the Irish have struggled against both superior and inferior opponents - never able to beat anyone handily. The missing ingredient seems to be emotion - which is easy to muster up when you are on the road and at night than it has been for the Irish at home. While certainly Notre Dame Stadium is a very tame environment to play in, its up to the coaches and players to find that emotion, that intensity from somewhere. Otherwise playing afternoon games in Notre Dame Stadium will continue to be a drag.
Pitt at home will be a great test for the Irish - who will have to play solid football to win this game. If the Irish play inconsistent or average football, they will lose another close one against a Pitt team that has some talent. But if the Irish can get fired up and amp up the level of intensity & emotion - like Brian Kelly was seen displaying on the sidelines during the Boston College game - Notre Dame should win this game by 10 points. Funny how Brian Kelly's most animated game all season was probably our best as a team. Expect a fired up coach that hopefully will be an example for the rest of the team come Saturday.
Pitt is a similar but better team than Boston College - with two proven running backs and some defensive talent all over. Pitt has trouble on both lines, as well as at QB. Expect the Irish to guard against the Pitt rushing attack, while playing soft coverage on their top WR Jonathan Baldwin. Whether Pitt can muster a passing attack will be the key to the game for both teams. If the Irish can keep Pitt under 20 points, the Irish should win; otherwise, all bets are off, and the game will likely go down to the wire.
I predict an average offensive day from the Irish - but a scoreboard that looks better because of some big defensive and special teams play. A comfortable win, but not terribly impressive given how poorly Pitt has played this season. Like my dress shirt size, I expect a score of . . .
IRISH 33 PITT 17
(straight up pick, 3-2 for the year, ATS 2-2-1)
Friday, October 1, 2010
Life or Death
This week, safety Harrison Smith described the upcoming game this weekend against Boston College on Saturday night as "Life or Death". Much has been made, both positively and negatively, about this quote. Is this a new attitude, or is it just a platitude? After getting soundly beaten by Stanford last weekend, I hope its the former. All I will say about the Stanford game is that Stanford's physicality will help them go a long way - and that Notre Dame's lack of fire and ability to adjust to a drop 8 defense was upsetting. More on the drop 8 defense later.
Whether this game is life or death, the BC game is certainly the beginning of a winnable streak of games. At BC, then Pitt at home, followed by Western Michigan, Navy, and Tulsa. Would last year's Irish team win 4 or 5 of these games, despite better talent and speed than each of those 5? No. Will this year's team? The answer to that question, in my mind, will give Brian Kelly his first "grade" from Notre Dame fans.
One concerning trend out of the Stanford game was our reaction to Stanford's defensive adjustment to a drop 8 coverage. Stanford played a man to man cover 1 defense early, and Notre Dame marched right down the field. Stanford responded with a defense that they hadn't played in 2 years - a drop 8 zone coverage, where 3 defensive lineman rush, while all 8 other players spread out in a zone, facing the QB. The obvious strength of that defense is defending the long and intermediate passes with max coverage - while the weakness of the defense is against the run. Unfortunately, the Irish were unable to exploit this coverage - looking unprepared and lost offensively for much of the game. Until the Irish can move the ball on this type of defense, expect it more and more. Funny, its very similar to the cover 2 defense that Boston College employs and has employed for many years. Whether the Irish can adjust to this defense - as Brian Kelly has alluded to - will be a major quiz along the path towards Kelly's grade.
The saving grace in this game for the Irish is that Boston College is likely starting a true freshman QB in his first career start Saturday night. After 0 points last week, Boston College's offense is clearly stuck in neutral. When the immobile offense goes up against the charitable defense, who knows what will happen. The Irish have an opportunity to score 24 points and have that potentially be enough - which recently is a rare situation.
Amazingly, the Irish have played quite well on the road the past two seasons - losing but playing arguably better than at home. Given the Boston College offense's troubles, and the Irish hopefully desperate enough for a win, there is no reason the Irish shouldn't win this football game.
Look for Manti Te'o (21 tackles last week) - to have another MONSTER day for the second week in a row against the BC offense, likely with multiple sacks and at least one fumble caused. Expect ugly offense, with the Irish winning this game on defense and special teams - not needing much offense.
IRISH 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 10
(Straight up 2-2, ATS 1-2-1)
Whether this game is life or death, the BC game is certainly the beginning of a winnable streak of games. At BC, then Pitt at home, followed by Western Michigan, Navy, and Tulsa. Would last year's Irish team win 4 or 5 of these games, despite better talent and speed than each of those 5? No. Will this year's team? The answer to that question, in my mind, will give Brian Kelly his first "grade" from Notre Dame fans.
One concerning trend out of the Stanford game was our reaction to Stanford's defensive adjustment to a drop 8 coverage. Stanford played a man to man cover 1 defense early, and Notre Dame marched right down the field. Stanford responded with a defense that they hadn't played in 2 years - a drop 8 zone coverage, where 3 defensive lineman rush, while all 8 other players spread out in a zone, facing the QB. The obvious strength of that defense is defending the long and intermediate passes with max coverage - while the weakness of the defense is against the run. Unfortunately, the Irish were unable to exploit this coverage - looking unprepared and lost offensively for much of the game. Until the Irish can move the ball on this type of defense, expect it more and more. Funny, its very similar to the cover 2 defense that Boston College employs and has employed for many years. Whether the Irish can adjust to this defense - as Brian Kelly has alluded to - will be a major quiz along the path towards Kelly's grade.
The saving grace in this game for the Irish is that Boston College is likely starting a true freshman QB in his first career start Saturday night. After 0 points last week, Boston College's offense is clearly stuck in neutral. When the immobile offense goes up against the charitable defense, who knows what will happen. The Irish have an opportunity to score 24 points and have that potentially be enough - which recently is a rare situation.
Amazingly, the Irish have played quite well on the road the past two seasons - losing but playing arguably better than at home. Given the Boston College offense's troubles, and the Irish hopefully desperate enough for a win, there is no reason the Irish shouldn't win this football game.
Look for Manti Te'o (21 tackles last week) - to have another MONSTER day for the second week in a row against the BC offense, likely with multiple sacks and at least one fumble caused. Expect ugly offense, with the Irish winning this game on defense and special teams - not needing much offense.
IRISH 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 10
(Straight up 2-2, ATS 1-2-1)
Friday, September 24, 2010
The Cardinal: A Vatican Subordinate
Saturday the Irish play the team that I believe is the best team on their 12 game schedule - the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal is #18 in the country, and has killed mediocre competition in 3 games thus far. 35-0 against UCLA, 68-24 over Wake Forest, and a thumping of Sacramento State. At the helm of the Stanford Cardinal is the player Mel Kiper Jr ranks as the #2 ranked player for the NFL Draft (as a sophomore), quarterback Andrew Luck. Understandably the Irish are 6pt underdogs at home.
Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority, with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs). But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played.
So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average. Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense. I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course.
With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.
Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford.
Vatican Smoke Prediction:
IRISH 38 STANFORD 35
(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)
Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority, with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs). But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played.
So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average. Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense. I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course.
With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.
Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford.
Vatican Smoke Prediction:
IRISH 38 STANFORD 35
(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Faked Out
Another game, another heartbreak. The Irish loss in overtime and in a new fashion to Michigan St on Saturday night, falling 34-31 on a 29 yard fake field goal touchdown in overtime. Even though the playclock read zero as the final play began, no penalty was called - which apparently is the correct call, according to the Big East. I could make endless jokes about the "lag" concept, but am going to leave the whole playclock issue alone. The Irish could have done just 1 thing to have avoided that situation - scored a TD in overtime, defended the fake field goal, or won the game in regulation, so the playclock passing doesn't really bother me. As always, there were mixed emotions following this one.
Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life - we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll - all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.
The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.
The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.
This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.
Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life - we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll - all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.
The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.
The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.
This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.
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