Western Michigan Broncos trot into South Bend on Saturday for the first patsy game for the Irish this season - unless you count Purdue. As the Irish face their first non-BCS foe this year, many would expect a let down. Believe it or not, the Irish have underperformed against bad BCS conference teams, rather than non-BCS ones. And Brian Kelly, being a former non-BCS team coach seems to have a healthy appreciation of not giving these teams any hope of an upset. Brian Kelly spoke last week about how he understands how little a team like Western Michigan has to lose - and you can tell he knew this from his experiences at Grand Valley State and Central Michigan.
Not much analysis here. The Irish haven't had a game to really work on their offense against an inferior opponent - unlike any other team in the country. I expect the Irish to score 40 or maybe 50 points, and this be a 30pt blowout that we wouldn't see from past years Irish teams. Hope its fun to watch, but only for Irish fans:
IRISH 45 Western Michigan 17
Straight up 4-2, 2-2-2 ATS
Friday, October 15, 2010
Friday, October 8, 2010
'Stache Invasion
Coming off a dominating victory against Boston College that the Irish had to have, Pitt awaits Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday at 330pmET. The Irish should have some confidence after handily beating an opponent- albeit a team without a passing game that the Irish rightly were expected to drill.
The key question in my mind is - Can the Irish dominate a solid opponent in Notre Dame Stadium? Night games on the road seem to bring out the best in the Irish - maybe not always wins, but at least solid efforts and close losses. Notre Dame stadium is where the Irish have struggled against both superior and inferior opponents - never able to beat anyone handily. The missing ingredient seems to be emotion - which is easy to muster up when you are on the road and at night than it has been for the Irish at home. While certainly Notre Dame Stadium is a very tame environment to play in, its up to the coaches and players to find that emotion, that intensity from somewhere. Otherwise playing afternoon games in Notre Dame Stadium will continue to be a drag.
Pitt at home will be a great test for the Irish - who will have to play solid football to win this game. If the Irish play inconsistent or average football, they will lose another close one against a Pitt team that has some talent. But if the Irish can get fired up and amp up the level of intensity & emotion - like Brian Kelly was seen displaying on the sidelines during the Boston College game - Notre Dame should win this game by 10 points. Funny how Brian Kelly's most animated game all season was probably our best as a team. Expect a fired up coach that hopefully will be an example for the rest of the team come Saturday.
Pitt is a similar but better team than Boston College - with two proven running backs and some defensive talent all over. Pitt has trouble on both lines, as well as at QB. Expect the Irish to guard against the Pitt rushing attack, while playing soft coverage on their top WR Jonathan Baldwin. Whether Pitt can muster a passing attack will be the key to the game for both teams. If the Irish can keep Pitt under 20 points, the Irish should win; otherwise, all bets are off, and the game will likely go down to the wire.
I predict an average offensive day from the Irish - but a scoreboard that looks better because of some big defensive and special teams play. A comfortable win, but not terribly impressive given how poorly Pitt has played this season. Like my dress shirt size, I expect a score of . . .
IRISH 33 PITT 17
(straight up pick, 3-2 for the year, ATS 2-2-1)
The key question in my mind is - Can the Irish dominate a solid opponent in Notre Dame Stadium? Night games on the road seem to bring out the best in the Irish - maybe not always wins, but at least solid efforts and close losses. Notre Dame stadium is where the Irish have struggled against both superior and inferior opponents - never able to beat anyone handily. The missing ingredient seems to be emotion - which is easy to muster up when you are on the road and at night than it has been for the Irish at home. While certainly Notre Dame Stadium is a very tame environment to play in, its up to the coaches and players to find that emotion, that intensity from somewhere. Otherwise playing afternoon games in Notre Dame Stadium will continue to be a drag.
Pitt at home will be a great test for the Irish - who will have to play solid football to win this game. If the Irish play inconsistent or average football, they will lose another close one against a Pitt team that has some talent. But if the Irish can get fired up and amp up the level of intensity & emotion - like Brian Kelly was seen displaying on the sidelines during the Boston College game - Notre Dame should win this game by 10 points. Funny how Brian Kelly's most animated game all season was probably our best as a team. Expect a fired up coach that hopefully will be an example for the rest of the team come Saturday.
Pitt is a similar but better team than Boston College - with two proven running backs and some defensive talent all over. Pitt has trouble on both lines, as well as at QB. Expect the Irish to guard against the Pitt rushing attack, while playing soft coverage on their top WR Jonathan Baldwin. Whether Pitt can muster a passing attack will be the key to the game for both teams. If the Irish can keep Pitt under 20 points, the Irish should win; otherwise, all bets are off, and the game will likely go down to the wire.
I predict an average offensive day from the Irish - but a scoreboard that looks better because of some big defensive and special teams play. A comfortable win, but not terribly impressive given how poorly Pitt has played this season. Like my dress shirt size, I expect a score of . . .
IRISH 33 PITT 17
(straight up pick, 3-2 for the year, ATS 2-2-1)
Friday, October 1, 2010
Life or Death
This week, safety Harrison Smith described the upcoming game this weekend against Boston College on Saturday night as "Life or Death". Much has been made, both positively and negatively, about this quote. Is this a new attitude, or is it just a platitude? After getting soundly beaten by Stanford last weekend, I hope its the former. All I will say about the Stanford game is that Stanford's physicality will help them go a long way - and that Notre Dame's lack of fire and ability to adjust to a drop 8 defense was upsetting. More on the drop 8 defense later.
Whether this game is life or death, the BC game is certainly the beginning of a winnable streak of games. At BC, then Pitt at home, followed by Western Michigan, Navy, and Tulsa. Would last year's Irish team win 4 or 5 of these games, despite better talent and speed than each of those 5? No. Will this year's team? The answer to that question, in my mind, will give Brian Kelly his first "grade" from Notre Dame fans.
One concerning trend out of the Stanford game was our reaction to Stanford's defensive adjustment to a drop 8 coverage. Stanford played a man to man cover 1 defense early, and Notre Dame marched right down the field. Stanford responded with a defense that they hadn't played in 2 years - a drop 8 zone coverage, where 3 defensive lineman rush, while all 8 other players spread out in a zone, facing the QB. The obvious strength of that defense is defending the long and intermediate passes with max coverage - while the weakness of the defense is against the run. Unfortunately, the Irish were unable to exploit this coverage - looking unprepared and lost offensively for much of the game. Until the Irish can move the ball on this type of defense, expect it more and more. Funny, its very similar to the cover 2 defense that Boston College employs and has employed for many years. Whether the Irish can adjust to this defense - as Brian Kelly has alluded to - will be a major quiz along the path towards Kelly's grade.
The saving grace in this game for the Irish is that Boston College is likely starting a true freshman QB in his first career start Saturday night. After 0 points last week, Boston College's offense is clearly stuck in neutral. When the immobile offense goes up against the charitable defense, who knows what will happen. The Irish have an opportunity to score 24 points and have that potentially be enough - which recently is a rare situation.
Amazingly, the Irish have played quite well on the road the past two seasons - losing but playing arguably better than at home. Given the Boston College offense's troubles, and the Irish hopefully desperate enough for a win, there is no reason the Irish shouldn't win this football game.
Look for Manti Te'o (21 tackles last week) - to have another MONSTER day for the second week in a row against the BC offense, likely with multiple sacks and at least one fumble caused. Expect ugly offense, with the Irish winning this game on defense and special teams - not needing much offense.
IRISH 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 10
(Straight up 2-2, ATS 1-2-1)
Whether this game is life or death, the BC game is certainly the beginning of a winnable streak of games. At BC, then Pitt at home, followed by Western Michigan, Navy, and Tulsa. Would last year's Irish team win 4 or 5 of these games, despite better talent and speed than each of those 5? No. Will this year's team? The answer to that question, in my mind, will give Brian Kelly his first "grade" from Notre Dame fans.
One concerning trend out of the Stanford game was our reaction to Stanford's defensive adjustment to a drop 8 coverage. Stanford played a man to man cover 1 defense early, and Notre Dame marched right down the field. Stanford responded with a defense that they hadn't played in 2 years - a drop 8 zone coverage, where 3 defensive lineman rush, while all 8 other players spread out in a zone, facing the QB. The obvious strength of that defense is defending the long and intermediate passes with max coverage - while the weakness of the defense is against the run. Unfortunately, the Irish were unable to exploit this coverage - looking unprepared and lost offensively for much of the game. Until the Irish can move the ball on this type of defense, expect it more and more. Funny, its very similar to the cover 2 defense that Boston College employs and has employed for many years. Whether the Irish can adjust to this defense - as Brian Kelly has alluded to - will be a major quiz along the path towards Kelly's grade.
The saving grace in this game for the Irish is that Boston College is likely starting a true freshman QB in his first career start Saturday night. After 0 points last week, Boston College's offense is clearly stuck in neutral. When the immobile offense goes up against the charitable defense, who knows what will happen. The Irish have an opportunity to score 24 points and have that potentially be enough - which recently is a rare situation.
Amazingly, the Irish have played quite well on the road the past two seasons - losing but playing arguably better than at home. Given the Boston College offense's troubles, and the Irish hopefully desperate enough for a win, there is no reason the Irish shouldn't win this football game.
Look for Manti Te'o (21 tackles last week) - to have another MONSTER day for the second week in a row against the BC offense, likely with multiple sacks and at least one fumble caused. Expect ugly offense, with the Irish winning this game on defense and special teams - not needing much offense.
IRISH 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 10
(Straight up 2-2, ATS 1-2-1)
Friday, September 24, 2010
The Cardinal: A Vatican Subordinate
Saturday the Irish play the team that I believe is the best team on their 12 game schedule - the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal is #18 in the country, and has killed mediocre competition in 3 games thus far. 35-0 against UCLA, 68-24 over Wake Forest, and a thumping of Sacramento State. At the helm of the Stanford Cardinal is the player Mel Kiper Jr ranks as the #2 ranked player for the NFL Draft (as a sophomore), quarterback Andrew Luck. Understandably the Irish are 6pt underdogs at home.
Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority, with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs). But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played.
So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average. Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense. I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course.
With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.
Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford.
Vatican Smoke Prediction:
IRISH 38 STANFORD 35
(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)
Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority, with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs). But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played.
So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average. Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense. I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course.
With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.
Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford.
Vatican Smoke Prediction:
IRISH 38 STANFORD 35
(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Faked Out
Another game, another heartbreak. The Irish loss in overtime and in a new fashion to Michigan St on Saturday night, falling 34-31 on a 29 yard fake field goal touchdown in overtime. Even though the playclock read zero as the final play began, no penalty was called - which apparently is the correct call, according to the Big East. I could make endless jokes about the "lag" concept, but am going to leave the whole playclock issue alone. The Irish could have done just 1 thing to have avoided that situation - scored a TD in overtime, defended the fake field goal, or won the game in regulation, so the playclock passing doesn't really bother me. As always, there were mixed emotions following this one.
Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life - we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll - all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.
The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.
The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.
This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.
Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life - we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll - all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.
The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.
The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.
This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Michigan St Preview
A late game preview from the Vatican for tonights game pitting the Irish against the Spartans up in East Lansing (many of you might get this via email on Sunday, but note that it was submitted at 640pm ET). Here's to my prediction not being accurate.
This series has been crazy, with 8 of the last 12 being decided by 7 points or less. I do not expect this game to be a blowout either way - perhaps another classic in the series. The Spartans have experience at all offensive positions, and a fantastic run game - while the Irish have plenty of offense themselves. On defense, the Spartans have some vulnerability to the pass, but overall have an edge on the Irish defense. Combine that with a rowdy night crowd up in East Lansing, and you have a Spartans team poised to beat up on the Irish on national television.
The last 3 night games in East Lansing have all ended the same way - with an Irish victory. When faced with very difficult circumstances the past few years, the Irish have responded - certainly making most every game close, but not being able to convert the majority of these games into victories. I expect the Irish to make this game close, and whether or not the Irish can get a stop or score late in the game will be the difference or lack of difference in the game. Irish fans long for the day when the Irish close in the 4th quarter - making that big stop or getting that big score that finishes off the opposition.
I am not sure tonight is that night. While I think the game will be close, and I would not be surprised by a sound Irish victory, I think Michigan St's experience will be the difference tonight. Lets hope Im wrong:
Michigan St 31 Notre Dame 27
(record 1-1 straight up, 0-1-1 ATS)
This series has been crazy, with 8 of the last 12 being decided by 7 points or less. I do not expect this game to be a blowout either way - perhaps another classic in the series. The Spartans have experience at all offensive positions, and a fantastic run game - while the Irish have plenty of offense themselves. On defense, the Spartans have some vulnerability to the pass, but overall have an edge on the Irish defense. Combine that with a rowdy night crowd up in East Lansing, and you have a Spartans team poised to beat up on the Irish on national television.
The last 3 night games in East Lansing have all ended the same way - with an Irish victory. When faced with very difficult circumstances the past few years, the Irish have responded - certainly making most every game close, but not being able to convert the majority of these games into victories. I expect the Irish to make this game close, and whether or not the Irish can get a stop or score late in the game will be the difference or lack of difference in the game. Irish fans long for the day when the Irish close in the 4th quarter - making that big stop or getting that big score that finishes off the opposition.
I am not sure tonight is that night. While I think the game will be close, and I would not be surprised by a sound Irish victory, I think Michigan St's experience will be the difference tonight. Lets hope Im wrong:
Michigan St 31 Notre Dame 27
(record 1-1 straight up, 0-1-1 ATS)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Moving Forward
Another tough loss for the Irish against the Wolverines this past weekend, 28-24. Too many tough losses in the past few years unfortunately make this loss blend in with many others. I do think the loss was different, and there are some positives to take away from the game. Whether the Irish can right the ship in the next 4 critical games - night game at Michigan St, vs Stanford, at Boston College, and vs Pitt - all losable - will determine whether these positive signs were in fact reality.
Dayne Crist provides us with a few positives and one major negative. The bad news was that Dayne did not play on 8 of ND 's 15 possessions, as he had "blurred vision and swelling of the face". I want to say he needs to be tougher than that, but no one knows the details of his injury. One major piece of good news was that the Irish were 1 stop, 1 play, or 1 coaching decision away from having a great shot at winning the game - despite only having Crist for 7/15 drives. The Irish only scored with Dayne in the game, as he directed the Irish to scores on 4 of his 7 drives. Certainly with Crist in the game a few more drives, the Irish likely beat Michigan - especially considering 14 of Michigan's points came after turnovers by ND's backup QBs. Dayne's play was not perfect by any stretch, but the Irish look to have an eventual 5 star caliber QB on their hands the next 3 seasons.
Another very refreshing aspect of the game was the 2nd half adjustments and overall defensive play. The Irish did not make the key stop in the 4th quarter that they needed - a common trend with prior years unfortunately. But in limiting the Wolverines to only 7 2nd half points (the final touchdown), the Irish defense gave the offense a chance to take the lead and win the game. One major adjustment I saw while at the game was on the defensive line - as the Irish shifted all 3-4 down lineman towards the strong side of the field just before the snap. The shift gave the offensive line for Michigan some trouble, and it particularly helped the additional blitzing Bob Diaco brought in the 2nd half. Even though Michigan missed a few field goals, the Irish stopped the Wolverines on some big 3rd downs in the 2nd half.
Besides the inability to stop the Wolverines at the end of the game, some of the execution and coaching concerned me a bit. Brian Kelly revealed this week that the defensive backs were lined up to the outside, not the inside as called, on the key 3rd down conversion by Michigan in the 4th. In addition, BK mentioned a few other coverages that were perfectly called but just not executed on that final drive. Maybe the defense was tired, but executing a good play call with the game on the line needs to be an area where we dont make mistakes. The coaching decision I had issue with was not kicking the field goal before halftime, with the Irish on the Wolverine 3 yard line with 3 seconds left. Brian Kelly said he "never considered the field goal" - largely due to his not knowing whether Crist could return to the game. I said it before the play and after, that was a huge mistake - mostly for the fact that Nate Montana, the Irish 3rd string QB, had been erratic at best thus far. Reward your team and take the 3 points there. Those 3 points could have given the Irish a 37 yarder at the end of the game to WIN - had the game proceeded the same way. Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 19 years, so I trust his decisions and realize he makes them with more information and experience than I will ever have. This is just my view from the back row of the stadium.
A good comeback spoiled is all too common - but I think there are some good things brewing. Weis rarely corrected issues that surfaced, or made adjustments during the game or season. The next 4 games will provide us a glimpse as to whether Brian Kelly can reverse this trend.
Dayne Crist provides us with a few positives and one major negative. The bad news was that Dayne did not play on 8 of ND 's 15 possessions, as he had "blurred vision and swelling of the face". I want to say he needs to be tougher than that, but no one knows the details of his injury. One major piece of good news was that the Irish were 1 stop, 1 play, or 1 coaching decision away from having a great shot at winning the game - despite only having Crist for 7/15 drives. The Irish only scored with Dayne in the game, as he directed the Irish to scores on 4 of his 7 drives. Certainly with Crist in the game a few more drives, the Irish likely beat Michigan - especially considering 14 of Michigan's points came after turnovers by ND's backup QBs. Dayne's play was not perfect by any stretch, but the Irish look to have an eventual 5 star caliber QB on their hands the next 3 seasons.
Another very refreshing aspect of the game was the 2nd half adjustments and overall defensive play. The Irish did not make the key stop in the 4th quarter that they needed - a common trend with prior years unfortunately. But in limiting the Wolverines to only 7 2nd half points (the final touchdown), the Irish defense gave the offense a chance to take the lead and win the game. One major adjustment I saw while at the game was on the defensive line - as the Irish shifted all 3-4 down lineman towards the strong side of the field just before the snap. The shift gave the offensive line for Michigan some trouble, and it particularly helped the additional blitzing Bob Diaco brought in the 2nd half. Even though Michigan missed a few field goals, the Irish stopped the Wolverines on some big 3rd downs in the 2nd half.
Besides the inability to stop the Wolverines at the end of the game, some of the execution and coaching concerned me a bit. Brian Kelly revealed this week that the defensive backs were lined up to the outside, not the inside as called, on the key 3rd down conversion by Michigan in the 4th. In addition, BK mentioned a few other coverages that were perfectly called but just not executed on that final drive. Maybe the defense was tired, but executing a good play call with the game on the line needs to be an area where we dont make mistakes. The coaching decision I had issue with was not kicking the field goal before halftime, with the Irish on the Wolverine 3 yard line with 3 seconds left. Brian Kelly said he "never considered the field goal" - largely due to his not knowing whether Crist could return to the game. I said it before the play and after, that was a huge mistake - mostly for the fact that Nate Montana, the Irish 3rd string QB, had been erratic at best thus far. Reward your team and take the 3 points there. Those 3 points could have given the Irish a 37 yarder at the end of the game to WIN - had the game proceeded the same way. Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 19 years, so I trust his decisions and realize he makes them with more information and experience than I will ever have. This is just my view from the back row of the stadium.
A good comeback spoiled is all too common - but I think there are some good things brewing. Weis rarely corrected issues that surfaced, or made adjustments during the game or season. The next 4 games will provide us a glimpse as to whether Brian Kelly can reverse this trend.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Bend, not Break
For some time, its been said that Notre Dame's defense was a bend but not break unit. I think that term applies to every bad defense - but should it? Last two year's have seen Notre Dame defenses ranked in the bottom third of division 1-A - which to me, is a broken, bent over defense. While the personnel on defense has dictated a possible bend not break strategy as a solution, Jon Tenuta (ex Irish DC) did not take that approach with his planning - preferring aggression and blitzing on all downs. The past two years felt like Jon Tenuta was trying to beat someone up with a pillow - swinging hard and often, but forgetting that he didn't have the tools to execute.
After one game, and through the many preseason and midweek interviews of Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco, the Irish truly appear to be a defense looking to mitigate its weaknesses, and reacting to the offense - rather than ignoring them and trying to dictate to the difficult to stop spread offenses in college football. Against Purdue, the Irish avoided giving up the big play or giving up much against the run - essentially shifting their weakness towards the short pass.
How will the Irish adapt their defensive approach to the Wolverines on Saturday at 330pm ET? I expect a similar approach - preventing the deep pass or long run, while giving up short passes - which in Michigan's case, are often short QB runs. Look for Michigan to get their yards and their points, but for the Irish defensive approach in the red zone to be the difference in the game. Giving Denard Robinson a huge spread out zone inside the red zone - forcing him to make a difficult pass, while also watching his every move - should give the Irish a good chance for an interception or holding Michigan to a few field goals.
On offense, I don't see how Michigan can cover ND's WRs. They couldn't last year, having one of the worst pass defenses the Irish faced all season (Navy was light years better against the pass). This year, Michigan has only 2 scholarship CBs. The question is not if Irish WRs will be open, but whether we can protect Crist and whether he'll hit them. I think a very good, not great day from Crist, combined with another balanced, workman like day from the running game, will give the Irish all the points they need.
With the weather potentially wet - look for the passing games to become easier, while the running games become more difficult. Advantage Irish. Its also nice to know that the Irish special teams are likely going to be prepared and able to execute - whereas the 2009 team gave up critical field position and a TD return to Michigan. The underdog performs well in this series, so nothing should be taken for granted; but on paper and based on what we know about Brian Kelly and his staff, I see a great opportunity for the Irish.
Prediction:
IRISH 31 MICHIGAN 20
(For the season, 1-0 in predictions straight up, 0-0-1 against the spread)
After one game, and through the many preseason and midweek interviews of Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco, the Irish truly appear to be a defense looking to mitigate its weaknesses, and reacting to the offense - rather than ignoring them and trying to dictate to the difficult to stop spread offenses in college football. Against Purdue, the Irish avoided giving up the big play or giving up much against the run - essentially shifting their weakness towards the short pass.
How will the Irish adapt their defensive approach to the Wolverines on Saturday at 330pm ET? I expect a similar approach - preventing the deep pass or long run, while giving up short passes - which in Michigan's case, are often short QB runs. Look for Michigan to get their yards and their points, but for the Irish defensive approach in the red zone to be the difference in the game. Giving Denard Robinson a huge spread out zone inside the red zone - forcing him to make a difficult pass, while also watching his every move - should give the Irish a good chance for an interception or holding Michigan to a few field goals.
On offense, I don't see how Michigan can cover ND's WRs. They couldn't last year, having one of the worst pass defenses the Irish faced all season (Navy was light years better against the pass). This year, Michigan has only 2 scholarship CBs. The question is not if Irish WRs will be open, but whether we can protect Crist and whether he'll hit them. I think a very good, not great day from Crist, combined with another balanced, workman like day from the running game, will give the Irish all the points they need.
With the weather potentially wet - look for the passing games to become easier, while the running games become more difficult. Advantage Irish. Its also nice to know that the Irish special teams are likely going to be prepared and able to execute - whereas the 2009 team gave up critical field position and a TD return to Michigan. The underdog performs well in this series, so nothing should be taken for granted; but on paper and based on what we know about Brian Kelly and his staff, I see a great opportunity for the Irish.
Prediction:
IRISH 31 MICHIGAN 20
(For the season, 1-0 in predictions straight up, 0-0-1 against the spread)
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Purdue Pregame
Great video footage of UND.com that goes into the Irish lockeroom before the game to watch Brian Kelly's pregame speech, as well as Coach Kelly's first tap on the "Play Like a Champion" sign. Worth the 5 minutes.
Substance, not Style
The Irish beat the Purdue Boilermakers 23-12 on Saturday to start the Brian Kelly era off 1-0. The offense was balanced (160 yards rushing, 200 passing), and the defense only allowed 10 points to the Purdue offense. For once, the Irish won the special teams battle - returning 2 kickoffs for 50 yards, and 1 punt for 38 yards. Overall the performance was solid in all three phases - but spectacular in none. In fact, the spectacular was that the Irish was not the schizophrenic team we saw under Charlie Weis. Kelly's team closed the game out in the 4th quarter - when previous Irish teams may have lost it. Where style points were lacking, substance prevailed.
The all around solid play is a reflection of coaching more than anything else. Coaches must have the football knowledge to deploy, but they also must have intimate knowledge of both their own troops and the opposition. Weis and Kelly both know football - but it feels as though Kelly is better able to manage his teams weaknesses, as opposed to the Weis approach of that more ingenuity cures all ills. The Irish defense struggled with big plays and stopping the run last year. Kelly knows this, but also knows you cannot stop everything an offense throws at you without giving up something. The Irish defense focused on the run, while employing a cushioned zone with safeties deep much of the game - preventing many of the big plays and consistent running for Purdue. Purdue took the short passes - with Marve completing 31 of 42 pass attempts, but for only 220 yards. Make them complete 10 short passes instead of 1 or 2 - in the hopes that you can get pressure on a play here or there and stop the drive. The long 3rd quarter drive by Purdue that eventually ended in an interception after 15 plays was a perfect example of a defensive gameplan working.
Substance - not style - is what we saw from the Irish. Michigan - this week's opponent if you need reminding - looked spectacular in their besting of UConn this past weekend 30-10. Style yes - but substance? That remains to be seen. Even Michigan fans know that running their QB 29 times is not likely to end well over the course of a Big 10 season. While Denard Robinson passed amazingly well also (19 for 22), no other Michigan RB got more than 3.5yards a carry. Meanwhile, UConn was gaining 5 yards per carry yet fumbling inside the 10 and being unable to convert or defend 3rd downs. Giving up critical 3rd and 15s on broken running plays to Robinson revealed an unprepared UConn defense. Expect Brian Kelly to focus heavily on containing Denard Robinson - and not being stupid enough to think we can stop him. Giving up short precision throws while keeping him in front of our linebackers as much as possible, is likely the approach the Irish use. Expect some long Michigan drives that eventually stall in the red zone - where the Irish have less field to cover and Robinson has to be more accurate with his passes. How Notre Dame on offense converts in the red zone will be the key to what I expect to be a close game. More to come in the game preview later this week.
The all around solid play is a reflection of coaching more than anything else. Coaches must have the football knowledge to deploy, but they also must have intimate knowledge of both their own troops and the opposition. Weis and Kelly both know football - but it feels as though Kelly is better able to manage his teams weaknesses, as opposed to the Weis approach of that more ingenuity cures all ills. The Irish defense struggled with big plays and stopping the run last year. Kelly knows this, but also knows you cannot stop everything an offense throws at you without giving up something. The Irish defense focused on the run, while employing a cushioned zone with safeties deep much of the game - preventing many of the big plays and consistent running for Purdue. Purdue took the short passes - with Marve completing 31 of 42 pass attempts, but for only 220 yards. Make them complete 10 short passes instead of 1 or 2 - in the hopes that you can get pressure on a play here or there and stop the drive. The long 3rd quarter drive by Purdue that eventually ended in an interception after 15 plays was a perfect example of a defensive gameplan working.
Substance - not style - is what we saw from the Irish. Michigan - this week's opponent if you need reminding - looked spectacular in their besting of UConn this past weekend 30-10. Style yes - but substance? That remains to be seen. Even Michigan fans know that running their QB 29 times is not likely to end well over the course of a Big 10 season. While Denard Robinson passed amazingly well also (19 for 22), no other Michigan RB got more than 3.5yards a carry. Meanwhile, UConn was gaining 5 yards per carry yet fumbling inside the 10 and being unable to convert or defend 3rd downs. Giving up critical 3rd and 15s on broken running plays to Robinson revealed an unprepared UConn defense. Expect Brian Kelly to focus heavily on containing Denard Robinson - and not being stupid enough to think we can stop him. Giving up short precision throws while keeping him in front of our linebackers as much as possible, is likely the approach the Irish use. Expect some long Michigan drives that eventually stall in the red zone - where the Irish have less field to cover and Robinson has to be more accurate with his passes. How Notre Dame on offense converts in the red zone will be the key to what I expect to be a close game. More to come in the game preview later this week.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Purdue Game Preview
The Brian Kelly era begins Saturday at 330pm ET on NBC against the Boilermakers of Purdue. Typically a new coach is always given some time to get his system in order before the expectations rise; however, many Irish fans see a manageable schedule and a fairly talented roster at BK's disposal, changing things a bit for a hyped up fan base.
No matter which way you slice it, Notre Dame is a more talented team than Pittsburgh. Just ask Scouts, Inc. & ESPN, here. The Irish have the "edge" in 7 of 9 possible categories, and is favored by 11 points. While certainly this game is clearly winnable for Notre Dame, Purdue is still a Big 10 program that was within a field goal and a minute of beating Oregon last year - and actually beat Ohio State by 12. Brian Kelly should win his opener, but he better hope the troops are ready.
The history of this matchup points towards the Irish. The team favored has won by more than 13 points in 6 of the last 7 years - with last years last minute TD by the Irish being the exception. Purdue traditionally has done very poorly in Notre Dame Stadium - winning just twice since 1974. Purdue also has to deal with a new QB making his first road start, as well coach Danny Hope visiting Notre Dame Stadium for the first time.
For Purdue to win . . . turnovers & Marve. Marve will have to play up to his recruiting billing, making plays with his feet and getting the ball to Purdue's strong WR corp. The Boilers will have to win the turnover battle to have a chance in this game - with Marve leading the way.
For Notre Dame to win . . . contain Marve and run the ball. With Purdue losing its top back from last year, as well as its #2 in an offseason injury, the running game likely will not be overpowering. A weakness last year for the Irish was defending the running QB - so lets hope the Irish have fixed the issue with a running QB. Making Marve sit in the pocket and pass should give the Irish some chances to make a big play. Running the ball against Purdue last year was not an issue - so I expect the Irish to have success again on the ground and opening up Brian Kelly's passing game even more.
Brian Kelly teams are not shy or timid - and the offenses go full speed trying to score as quickly as possible. Look for Notre Dame to have control with an early lead - coasting the rest of the game. Winning the turnover battle and special teams game, along with a few big plays from Michael Floyd and the shift slot WR Theo Riddick, will give BK the dominating opening win that he wants. Look for Purdue to have serious issues defending anything Notre Dame does - as well as Notre Dame #2s to get some action.
Original Prediction: ND 34 Purdue 24
Gameweek Prediction: Irish 38 Purdue 20
No matter which way you slice it, Notre Dame is a more talented team than Pittsburgh. Just ask Scouts, Inc. & ESPN, here. The Irish have the "edge" in 7 of 9 possible categories, and is favored by 11 points. While certainly this game is clearly winnable for Notre Dame, Purdue is still a Big 10 program that was within a field goal and a minute of beating Oregon last year - and actually beat Ohio State by 12. Brian Kelly should win his opener, but he better hope the troops are ready.
The history of this matchup points towards the Irish. The team favored has won by more than 13 points in 6 of the last 7 years - with last years last minute TD by the Irish being the exception. Purdue traditionally has done very poorly in Notre Dame Stadium - winning just twice since 1974. Purdue also has to deal with a new QB making his first road start, as well coach Danny Hope visiting Notre Dame Stadium for the first time.
For Purdue to win . . . turnovers & Marve. Marve will have to play up to his recruiting billing, making plays with his feet and getting the ball to Purdue's strong WR corp. The Boilers will have to win the turnover battle to have a chance in this game - with Marve leading the way.
For Notre Dame to win . . . contain Marve and run the ball. With Purdue losing its top back from last year, as well as its #2 in an offseason injury, the running game likely will not be overpowering. A weakness last year for the Irish was defending the running QB - so lets hope the Irish have fixed the issue with a running QB. Making Marve sit in the pocket and pass should give the Irish some chances to make a big play. Running the ball against Purdue last year was not an issue - so I expect the Irish to have success again on the ground and opening up Brian Kelly's passing game even more.
Brian Kelly teams are not shy or timid - and the offenses go full speed trying to score as quickly as possible. Look for Notre Dame to have control with an early lead - coasting the rest of the game. Winning the turnover battle and special teams game, along with a few big plays from Michael Floyd and the shift slot WR Theo Riddick, will give BK the dominating opening win that he wants. Look for Purdue to have serious issues defending anything Notre Dame does - as well as Notre Dame #2s to get some action.
Original Prediction: ND 34 Purdue 24
Gameweek Prediction: Irish 38 Purdue 20
Monday, August 30, 2010
Changing the Culture - 2010 Season Prediction
Before diving into my 2010 season predictions for the Irish, I wanted to share the predictions of long time ND beat writer Al Lesar from the South Bend Tribune - who gives a game by game prediction in this article in the SB Tribune last week.
Lesar predicts the Irish to go 8-4 - losing to Utah, Stanford, Michigan St, and Boston College, while defeating Michigan, USC, and Pittsburgh. Its hard to agree or disagree with Mr. Lesar's predictions at this point. No one has what we really need to predict the Irish win total - an answer to the question, "Has Brian Kelly changed the culture of this program?" A "No" means that we should expect the same erratic performances as last year - moments of brilliance followed by excruciating ones - creating a close game against Purdue as well as USC. Until the Irish can stop losing, as Brian Kelly has said during the spring and summer, we cant move forward towards winning.
With that key question in mind, lets begin the season prediction - starting at talent vs our opponents. While its debatable, majority of experts will agree that the Irish are more talented man for man than 5 opponents - Purdue, Western Michigan, Tulsa, Navy, and Army (save the Navy jokes, please) - on par with 6 opponents - Michigan (debatable), Michigan St, Stanford, Boston College, Pitt, Utah - and a bit behind 1 opponent - USC (debatable). The Irish return 8 or more starters on both sides of the ball in 2010 - which could be considered good or bad. The good news is that in 2009, the Irish had the ball in the final moments with a chance to win each of the 6 games they lost (yep, every single one of them); the bad news is that 4 of the Irish wins of 2009 were the opposite - holding on for dear life or scoring in the final minute. While the Irish might not have a talent surplus, in 2009 they certainly did not have a talent deficit.
While many point to a talent as the reason for losing, I point to shortcomings of the emotional, motivational, and mental variety that together comprise the "culture" of the program. So we come back to the key question - has BK been able to change the culture of the Irish program? We won't know for awhile, but chances are high that Brian Kelly knows how. While he hasn't seen the level of scrutiny he will find at ND, he has been a college head coach - not an assistant, but a head coach - for 19 seasons. Given his level of experience and success, I expect nothing less than for this team to play a higher percentage of games at their maximum potential - as opposed to playing down to the level of the competition like the 2009 team. Also, I expect losses - yes, I expect these - to be more about the other team's performance, rather than an Irish collapse or self inflicted wounds. The victories will be more emphatic and less hanging on for dear life. As the season progresses, there will be improvement and tangible evidence of learning from earlier mistakes. In short, I expect the Irish program to get back to discussions about our talent, and not our coaching.
With that in mind, the Vatican Smoke official preseason prediction:
Color me biased. Lots of high scores eh? The Irish were close to going 9-3 or 10-2 last year - but also very close to going 4-8. I think Brian Kelly closes the gap and takes a comparably to slightly less talented 2009 team, and turns them into the foundation for long term program success. The key pieces of the offense are all back - except the big one. Where the passing game steps back a good bit because of Clausen's departure, the passing scheme of Brian Kelly - combined with the newfound ability to run the football - combine to fill the void. Saturday at 330pm ET, maybe this 9-3 prediction will start to look really good . . . or worse.
Lesar predicts the Irish to go 8-4 - losing to Utah, Stanford, Michigan St, and Boston College, while defeating Michigan, USC, and Pittsburgh. Its hard to agree or disagree with Mr. Lesar's predictions at this point. No one has what we really need to predict the Irish win total - an answer to the question, "Has Brian Kelly changed the culture of this program?" A "No" means that we should expect the same erratic performances as last year - moments of brilliance followed by excruciating ones - creating a close game against Purdue as well as USC. Until the Irish can stop losing, as Brian Kelly has said during the spring and summer, we cant move forward towards winning.
With that key question in mind, lets begin the season prediction - starting at talent vs our opponents. While its debatable, majority of experts will agree that the Irish are more talented man for man than 5 opponents - Purdue, Western Michigan, Tulsa, Navy, and Army (save the Navy jokes, please) - on par with 6 opponents - Michigan (debatable), Michigan St, Stanford, Boston College, Pitt, Utah - and a bit behind 1 opponent - USC (debatable). The Irish return 8 or more starters on both sides of the ball in 2010 - which could be considered good or bad. The good news is that in 2009, the Irish had the ball in the final moments with a chance to win each of the 6 games they lost (yep, every single one of them); the bad news is that 4 of the Irish wins of 2009 were the opposite - holding on for dear life or scoring in the final minute. While the Irish might not have a talent surplus, in 2009 they certainly did not have a talent deficit.
While many point to a talent as the reason for losing, I point to shortcomings of the emotional, motivational, and mental variety that together comprise the "culture" of the program. So we come back to the key question - has BK been able to change the culture of the Irish program? We won't know for awhile, but chances are high that Brian Kelly knows how. While he hasn't seen the level of scrutiny he will find at ND, he has been a college head coach - not an assistant, but a head coach - for 19 seasons. Given his level of experience and success, I expect nothing less than for this team to play a higher percentage of games at their maximum potential - as opposed to playing down to the level of the competition like the 2009 team. Also, I expect losses - yes, I expect these - to be more about the other team's performance, rather than an Irish collapse or self inflicted wounds. The victories will be more emphatic and less hanging on for dear life. As the season progresses, there will be improvement and tangible evidence of learning from earlier mistakes. In short, I expect the Irish program to get back to discussions about our talent, and not our coaching.
With that in mind, the Vatican Smoke official preseason prediction:
- vs. Purdue (W 34-24)
- vs. Michigan (W 38-17)
- at Michigan St (L 24-21)
- vs Stanford (W 28-24)
- at Boston College (W 28-20)
- vs. Pittsburgh (L 27-24)
- vs Western Michigan (W 42-17)
- vs Navy (W 49-28)
- vs Tulsa (W 42-24)
- vs Utah (L 31-28 OT)
- vs Army (W 45-17)
- at USC (W 24-21 OT)
- 9 wins, 3 losses
Color me biased. Lots of high scores eh? The Irish were close to going 9-3 or 10-2 last year - but also very close to going 4-8. I think Brian Kelly closes the gap and takes a comparably to slightly less talented 2009 team, and turns them into the foundation for long term program success. The key pieces of the offense are all back - except the big one. Where the passing game steps back a good bit because of Clausen's departure, the passing scheme of Brian Kelly - combined with the newfound ability to run the football - combine to fill the void. Saturday at 330pm ET, maybe this 9-3 prediction will start to look really good . . . or worse.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Star Power
Busy day today at Vatican Smoke with not one but two posts in one day. Recruiting rankings are a tenuous topic among many old school and new school college fans. This article in the Wall Street Journal was not surprising to me, although it might be to some.
I have always contended that recruiting rankings on a micro level - for one player - are certainly not perfect projections of that player's potential. However, Rivals and other sites have shown that the chances of making the NFL are higher for 5 stars than 3 stars - significantly in fact. From the 2010 NFL draft's first round, only 1 player was not a 3 star or higher coming out of high school; and since there are only 20 to 25 5 stars nationally per year, the 5 star still had the highest % chance of being drafted in the 1st round.
While there are numerous 5 star busts and 3 star players that make the NFL, the recruiting ranking that really matters is the class ranking for a program - over time. In the Wall Street Journal article from the top, the average star rating for starters is compared for the top schools. Not surprisingly, USC and Florida top the list, followed by Texas, Alabama, LSU, and the rest of the SEC. Yet interestingly enough, the Irish are 3rd. The anti-recruiting ranking folks will point to a potential Irish bias in recruiting rankings - getting higher marks than they deserve. The pro-recruiting folks - myself included - point to the lack of development and good enough coaching. Brian Kelly has developed talent everywhere he has coached, which means the pro-recruiting contingent now has a chance to see whether the Irish recruiting rankings were accurate and Weis did not develop them, or that Irish players get too generous a bump when they commit (which I contend is the opposite of what happens). I hope we see the former validated.
I have always contended that recruiting rankings on a micro level - for one player - are certainly not perfect projections of that player's potential. However, Rivals and other sites have shown that the chances of making the NFL are higher for 5 stars than 3 stars - significantly in fact. From the 2010 NFL draft's first round, only 1 player was not a 3 star or higher coming out of high school; and since there are only 20 to 25 5 stars nationally per year, the 5 star still had the highest % chance of being drafted in the 1st round.
While there are numerous 5 star busts and 3 star players that make the NFL, the recruiting ranking that really matters is the class ranking for a program - over time. In the Wall Street Journal article from the top, the average star rating for starters is compared for the top schools. Not surprisingly, USC and Florida top the list, followed by Texas, Alabama, LSU, and the rest of the SEC. Yet interestingly enough, the Irish are 3rd. The anti-recruiting ranking folks will point to a potential Irish bias in recruiting rankings - getting higher marks than they deserve. The pro-recruiting folks - myself included - point to the lack of development and good enough coaching. Brian Kelly has developed talent everywhere he has coached, which means the pro-recruiting contingent now has a chance to see whether the Irish recruiting rankings were accurate and Weis did not develop them, or that Irish players get too generous a bump when they commit (which I contend is the opposite of what happens). I hope we see the former validated.
Speed It Up NBC
Below is an article on a topic that I have been hearing rumblings on for a week or so. A few Irish beat writers wondered whether the long NBC telecasts would be especially harmful to the no huddle Brian Kelly offense. Another really good article here from Blue Gold Illustrated about the NBC question.
Certainly NBC's long timeouts pose an interesting wrinkle for a new no huddle offensive attack that is built to capitalize on the opponent's defense tiring. A TV timeout during an Irish scoring drive gives the defense rest and time to regroup. The same thing happens in the NCAA Basketball tournament, when CBS commercials enter the equation for many teams who benefit from the numerous TV timeouts. I don't know how important this really is, and I guess its likely preseason fodder for Irish fans hungry for September 4th. But I think its interesting because its obviously important enough for Brian Kelly and Jack Swarbrick to take time out and have discussions with NBC.
Helping the Irish offense aside, whether in the stadium or on your couch, I think we all agree that fewer TV timeouts and a tighter broadcast would be beneficial. NBC telecasts, while feeling like an hour longer than an ESPN game, are only 20 minutes longer on average. I was surprised at that. Hopefully the gap will continue to close, and I think BK's offense only provides a bit more pressure to NBC to speed things up.
Certainly NBC's long timeouts pose an interesting wrinkle for a new no huddle offensive attack that is built to capitalize on the opponent's defense tiring. A TV timeout during an Irish scoring drive gives the defense rest and time to regroup. The same thing happens in the NCAA Basketball tournament, when CBS commercials enter the equation for many teams who benefit from the numerous TV timeouts. I don't know how important this really is, and I guess its likely preseason fodder for Irish fans hungry for September 4th. But I think its interesting because its obviously important enough for Brian Kelly and Jack Swarbrick to take time out and have discussions with NBC.
Helping the Irish offense aside, whether in the stadium or on your couch, I think we all agree that fewer TV timeouts and a tighter broadcast would be beneficial. NBC telecasts, while feeling like an hour longer than an ESPN game, are only 20 minutes longer on average. I was surprised at that. Hopefully the gap will continue to close, and I think BK's offense only provides a bit more pressure to NBC to speed things up.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Either Or
Probably not many fans are more happy to have the previous season behind them than Irish fans. The past few weeks, I have probably read as many articles and news stories about Notre Dame football and college football than any other time of the year. Nothing is more speculative than a preseason preview from anyone - especially a beat writer, blogger, or even a coach.
Brian Kelly addressed the media last Friday before the first day of practice - his press conference detailed in this Chicago Sun Times piece from Rick Morrissey. Pay attention to the "Simply Being Realistic" section. Kelly details what he thinks are some strengths, but also candidly details some vulnerabilities. After the past 3 seasons, everyone knows the Irish have some weak points - but with a new regime and system, not everyone knows what they are (besides overall talent of course). Kelly gave what appears to be an honest assessment of the Irish weaknesses - first being the obvious lack of experience at QB, but also depth along the defensive line, consistency in the secondary, and consistency at kicker.
The most important of all those vulnerabilities is easily experience at QB. Dayne Crist has played in just 4 games, and only attempted 20 passes. Certainly he will be in a spread offense that is QB friendly, but his play will be critical. Depth on the defensive line, while important, becomes less important as the Irish shift back to the 3-4 defense the majority of the defensive players were recruited for (not to mention there's only 3 spots now). Kicking consistency is also important, but in my opinion such a lesser issue. Kicking is scrutinized more on bad teams - which the Irish have been the past few years. The kicking question is more reflective of all the close games the Irish played in the last two seasons.
Secondary consistency is the key question for me, beyond QB play. The old defensive adage of stopping the run first is certainly still valid, but to a lesser extent. Teams kill you with the pass now - while the run is merely an accomplice. Bob Diaco (Irish defensive coordinator) hopefully worked his butt off all summer trying to answer the question - how can we get better at defending the pass? I don't have the answer, but I can help him in this regard: the Irish cant get much worse than 76th in FBS at 228 yards per game. Improvement is likely with any new scheme. But don't get too excited - as Cincinnati ranked 78th in the country last year in pass defense.
Last year's defense had nothing to hang their hat on - as Weis used to say. You cant be bad against the run - 89th in the country - as well as bad against the pass. Hopefully Diaco & co are figuring out a way to at least be solid in one area. If the Irish can defend either or, they should be in good shape to at least have a chance at the Vegas over/under 8 win total. But then again, nothing's more speculative than a blogger in August.
Brian Kelly addressed the media last Friday before the first day of practice - his press conference detailed in this Chicago Sun Times piece from Rick Morrissey. Pay attention to the "Simply Being Realistic" section. Kelly details what he thinks are some strengths, but also candidly details some vulnerabilities. After the past 3 seasons, everyone knows the Irish have some weak points - but with a new regime and system, not everyone knows what they are (besides overall talent of course). Kelly gave what appears to be an honest assessment of the Irish weaknesses - first being the obvious lack of experience at QB, but also depth along the defensive line, consistency in the secondary, and consistency at kicker.
The most important of all those vulnerabilities is easily experience at QB. Dayne Crist has played in just 4 games, and only attempted 20 passes. Certainly he will be in a spread offense that is QB friendly, but his play will be critical. Depth on the defensive line, while important, becomes less important as the Irish shift back to the 3-4 defense the majority of the defensive players were recruited for (not to mention there's only 3 spots now). Kicking consistency is also important, but in my opinion such a lesser issue. Kicking is scrutinized more on bad teams - which the Irish have been the past few years. The kicking question is more reflective of all the close games the Irish played in the last two seasons.
Secondary consistency is the key question for me, beyond QB play. The old defensive adage of stopping the run first is certainly still valid, but to a lesser extent. Teams kill you with the pass now - while the run is merely an accomplice. Bob Diaco (Irish defensive coordinator) hopefully worked his butt off all summer trying to answer the question - how can we get better at defending the pass? I don't have the answer, but I can help him in this regard: the Irish cant get much worse than 76th in FBS at 228 yards per game. Improvement is likely with any new scheme. But don't get too excited - as Cincinnati ranked 78th in the country last year in pass defense.
Last year's defense had nothing to hang their hat on - as Weis used to say. You cant be bad against the run - 89th in the country - as well as bad against the pass. Hopefully Diaco & co are figuring out a way to at least be solid in one area. If the Irish can defend either or, they should be in good shape to at least have a chance at the Vegas over/under 8 win total. But then again, nothing's more speculative than a blogger in August.
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Color Commentating
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| Mike Mayock |
NBC replaced the vacated color commentator seat on its Notre Dame telecast with Mike Mayock - former Boston College star and current NFL Network analyst. The seat was previously held by Pat Hayden, who recently departed to take the clean up job as the USC Director of Athletics. Good articles in the South Bend Tribune here, and also a more in depth article at Blue Gold here going into Mayock's background, which included 25 years of football broadcasting at the college & pro levels.
Pat Hayden did a good job providing balanced commentary and was even accused of being biased against Notre Dame at times. NBC clearly wanted to keep the color commentary seat as objective and unoffensive as possible. Two candidates I would have preferred - Joe Theismann and Chris Collinsworth - both have very strong qualifications, but also very strong ties to Notre Dame (Collinsworth's son Austin is a freshman WR, Theismann is obvious). These guys are very opinionated and naturally pro Irish. Each of these guys, while very educated and articulate about the game, likely would alienate a few viewers - particularly non-Notre Dame fans.
While I would prefer that NBC would have hired to please the Notre Dame fan base first, I get what NBC is shooting for. We're always going to watch the Irish play on NBC - but the fringe fans, or the opposing fans, are the ones that NBC doesn't want to piss off. Hiring a Boston College or USC grad is a solid start, and ensuring the hire is not overly offensive or unlikable is the key. NBC did that with Pat Hayden, and I presume so with Mike Mayock. From the looks of his qualifications (25 years in broadcasting), I would say he is going to be very familiar with both the college and pro game, and should be a very professional, likable, and down the middle hire. He might not be as entertaining for Notre Dame fans as Theismann would have, but he is probably going to be better for NBCs ratings in the casual viewer base. Now we all know the easiest way to increase NBCs ratings - lets hope Brian Kelly and Co. are working on that now, as fall camp opened yesterday. Best of luck to Mayock this fall.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Scheduling Chess
Notre Dame announced its second major scheduling addition in
the past month, as the Irish have inked a 4 game home and home series with
Compared to the Irish 2010 slate of home games versus
Western Michigan, Tulsa, and Utah, new Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick is
clearly reverting back to the old ND “play anyone anywhere” scheduling
philosophy. Traditionally, ND always played a schedule that was above reproach,
giving the Irish a baseline of respect with college football fans and
conferences. Lately, weakened traditional opponents and a watered down
scheduling philosophy by the former athletics director Kevin White have helped
put Notre Dame in a weaker position at the BCS / conference realignment
discussion table. Certainly losing has hurt our position the most, but the
knocks on our schedule have personally been almost as difficult to handle for
many Irish fans.
Lets assume the Irish will always be relevant, with a large,
national following. In order to remain independent and in a position of
strength with conference realignment and the BCS, the Irish first and foremost
need to win more. A close second is that we schedule a competitive slate of
opponents. Opponents of Irish independence have long thought that the exception
made for Notre Dame was unfair. Weak scheduling will only give them more
leverage, pointing to the Irish having an even easier path to the BCS.
Scheduling powers like Texas and Miami
With a tough slate of games giving the Irish some
respectibility, the Irish will have one less thing to worry about when it comes
to the future of the BCS and conferences. Whether we will be independent in 10
years, I don’t know. But when we remain included in the next BCS, or we join a
conference, a strong schedule can only validate what we do on the field.
Speaking of that, with the upcoming schedules for the Irish, now we just have
to win football games. We all know how difficult that’s been the last few
years.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Hating Clausen
Jimmy Clausen signed his NFL contract with the Carolina Panthers Wednesday morning, just in time for training camp. Signing at the last minute is common for NFL draft picks - particularly a quarterback with a high profile like Clausen. No doubt that the Panthers are a great situation for Clausen - a team with no proven quarterback, a solid running game, a conservative approach, and a coach friendly with the Weis system (John Fox). The contract is standard in guaranteed money ($2.4M), but with plenty of incentives should Clausen earn the starting job early in his career. Sounds like a pretty fair deal for both parties. Clausen is a polarizing figure in recent Notre Dame history among Irish fans. While its normal for non-Irish fans to hate the Notre Dame quarterback, Clausen was different because many inside the family did not care for him much. Certainly some of the resentment among ND fans towards Clausen is due to the record his team's had while he was the Quarterback (16-18 as the starter). I understand that quarterbacks are ultimately judged by wins and losses than any other athlete. Even though a baseball pitcher's ERA always seems to validate his performance despite a bad win/loss record, this is not the case for a quarterback - who is expected to lead and win no matter what the circumstances.
Those Notre Dame fans that resent Jimmy because of his lack of wins I believe are too stubborn to look at the details. Whether you like Clausen or not, we all know that the 2007-2009 teams were some of the worst defensive teams ever at Notre Dame - giving up 29, 22, and 26pts per game, respectively. The 2009 team was finally talented enough, but was unable to close out games, losing 6 games by a total of 28 points. Certainly the offense could have done more in those games - but not much more. In those 6 losses of 2009, the offense averaged 29pts/game, while Clausen threw 15 TDs against only 2 INTs - completing over 65% of his passes. Its easy to see that Clausen performed well, and its even easy to acknowledge that the win loss record isn't the only way to evaluate a QB's performance. Why do many Notre Dame fans still resent Jimmy Clausen then?The resentment of Jimmy Clausen within the Notre Dame family, as well as outside of it, was created by the circumstances of his arrival more than anything else. When Clausen announced his intentions to attend Notre Dame at a press conference in May of 2006, the event was nothing short of a disaster. A limousine with an entourage, spiked hair, and a show & tell of championship rings were all involved - each of which is towards the top of any PR person's list of don'ts. Clausen's announcement created the same overblown expectations and resentment as Lebron's recent "The Decision" - meaning only a national championship or 3 would restore him to the graces of many. Later, as the Charlie Weis era fell apart, Clausen became a symbol of the departing regime, embodying the player version of Charlie Weis - no doubt talented, but unable to win at the college level.
Obviously, I am a Clausen supporter. He made some initial mistakes as an 18 year old, creating a bad first impression he could never undo - just like Charlie Weis. No matter what you think about Clausen, you have to admit he is starting out on much better footing in the NFL with the Carolina Panthers than at Notre Dame. Clausen has had a quiet summer by all accounts, working hard in Charlotte and building a rapport with his new coaches and teammates. His expectations are helped by the fact that he's a 2nd round draft pick instead of a first, and since he plays in a mid-market city on a team that is expected to be average. I don't know whether Clausen will be a good NFL quarterback - but he isn't doomed for failure from the start like it seems he was at Notre Dame. I like to think he has taken his medicine and learned something from his Notre Dame experience as he starts a new chapter in his career. We'll see.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
First Post of 2010
Sadly, this is the first post of 2010 here at Vatican Smoke. Happy New Years I guess? The Pope took a sabbatical of sorts, taking time off to handle moving from Memphis, TN to Pittsburgh, PA, starting a new job, buying a house, and getting married. On top of all that, I've been decompressing from the heart break of the Charlie Weis era. It's been a busy 6 months, but I'm back with a new focus, and some hopefully entertaining takes on the upcoming 2010 Notre Dame football season.
Since the blog is starting up after a layover, now's a good time to define what Vatican Smoke is. The blog is not a reporting outlet with any inside knowledge or information; nor am I someone who is in the mainstream media (or media at all). I don't know more than the next guy, and I am certainly biased in my opinions (despite my burning desire to be objective). My writing skills are average, and I have no journalism pedigree. Why should you read this blog? Passionate sports fans need to commiserate with one another after a loss, celebrate with someone after a win, and work through a process of understanding why something incredible or terrible happened to their team. ESPN can't give you the community you need - (hopefully) Vatican Smoke can help. Especially after the last few years, every Notre Dame fan needs a bit of therapy. So enjoy some free, unlicensed treatment, here at Vatican Smoke.
In addition to a renewed purpose for the blog, here are a few specific goals & improvements for Vatican Smoke this season:
Since the blog is starting up after a layover, now's a good time to define what Vatican Smoke is. The blog is not a reporting outlet with any inside knowledge or information; nor am I someone who is in the mainstream media (or media at all). I don't know more than the next guy, and I am certainly biased in my opinions (despite my burning desire to be objective). My writing skills are average, and I have no journalism pedigree. Why should you read this blog? Passionate sports fans need to commiserate with one another after a loss, celebrate with someone after a win, and work through a process of understanding why something incredible or terrible happened to their team. ESPN can't give you the community you need - (hopefully) Vatican Smoke can help. Especially after the last few years, every Notre Dame fan needs a bit of therapy. So enjoy some free, unlicensed treatment, here at Vatican Smoke.
In addition to a renewed purpose for the blog, here are a few specific goals & improvements for Vatican Smoke this season:
- Shorter posts - I'm not an expert and this is not must read material for anyone. I appreciate the readers' time, and will be challenging myself to deliver something entertaining or at least stimulating in fewer words.
- Minimal usage of bullet points and numbering - Damn. Of course this is delivered via a bullet point. Numbering and bullet pointed are writer's crutch, more appropriate for communicating facts, not opinions on a blog.
- More relevant outside articles - The Fighting Irish have a lot of great beat reporters that follow the team closely with well written analysis. These guys provide great coverage, which is a great starting point for more blog posts.
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