Defend the Irish Alamo!

In a kinda weird event, the Irish will face off against Washington State on Saturday evening in San Antonio, TX at the Alama Dome (6:30pm central, NBC). The Irish are favored by 28 points over the Cougars, who are ranked in the "1 hundred and teens" in every major defensive category. While the game lacks much appeal from a matchup standpoint, the appeal and success/failure of the neutral site home game will be interesting to evaluate. Unfortunately the opponent is not either a) local or b) attractive, so I imagine the results of "success" of this game will be a mixed bag.

This game is the first of the former AD Kevin White-inspired "7-4-1" schedule - with the 1 being a neutral, off site "home" game. Under the 7-4-1 scheduling technique, the Irish intend to schedule 1 game per year in a major media market - ideally one with a pro football team (facility) and no college teams (opportunity). Additionally, the Irish would definitely prefer to schedule these games in areas that would aid in recruiting.

San Antonio is a perfect site for recruiting, being located near the major markets of Houston and Dallas in Texas - the state that produced the most division 1-A football players last year. Amazingly, Texas is home to only 3 players currently on scholarship for the Irish. There are more players from Tennessee and North Carolina individually than from Texas. The reason? Mack Brown and the Texas Longhorns, who typically offer top juniors in February each year, demanding their verbal by threatening to revoke the offer if not immediately accepted. In addition to the strong Irish recruiting pipelines to talent rich California and Florida, the Irish must establish some recruiting presence in Texas. Three or four prospects a year would be respectable and expected given the talent level and volume of players in the state. This game is a great way to get some exposure in the Longhorn state, as Notre Dame is allowed to invite as many high school players as possible to the game; a good number of talented juniors (class of 2011) will be on hand Saturday night.

Now, on to the game. I'm not going to spend a lot of time previewing the particulars of the game. Here are a few stats for you about the Cougars:

• Defense rankings (out of 120 Div 1-A nationally) - Rush defense (114th), Pass defense (118th), Total Defense (118th). 
• Offense rankings  -  Rushing offense (116th), Passing Offense (55th), Total Offense (111th)
• Passing offense looks decent right? But when its paired with the worst (120th) pass protection in the nation (5 sacks per game), that means two things: a) the freshman QB Lobberstael can pass a little bit, especially considering his numbers with that offensive line; and b) the Irish blitzing front is going to have some big time opportunities for a few big plays. 
• Washington St's only win this season (1-6) was against SMU at home - which they won 30-27 in OT.
• The Cougars scored 20 or more only twice, with the 30 against SMU and 20 against Hawaii. 

Washington State probably thinks they can beat Notre Dame, and I don't blame anyone for thinking they can win. Bottom line is that they can't. The Irish are far too talented not to score 30 points against Wazzu, while the Cougs will be lucky to get 20 points.  Look for the Irish to use this game to work on and improve the running game that will be key down the stretch. Charlie mentioned he is taking twice the number of offensive lineman on the trip, and I expect him to use them all. The game is never in doubt - for once - but the Cougars add a late score against the 2nd team defense to cover the spread.

Prediction:

Notre Dame  38    Washington St  17

(Vatican Smoke is 5-2 picking winners straight up, but 3-4 against the spread)


Prediction #2  -  See you on the Riverwalk!!

Streak Ended; Questions Remain

The Irish stopped the 6 game losing streak to the Boston College Eagles on Saturday, winning 20-16 in a game that once again went down to the wire. A Brian Smith interception in the final minute sealed the game for the Irish  in what was their 5th straight game decided in the final minute. You can find the full game stats here - and of course there were a few interesting items:

• Rushing Defense  -  The Irish outrushed BC 106 to 70 yards. The Irish held Montel Harris to 1.7 yds per carry, which was a very solid effort by the Irish front 7. The Irish improvement against the run could be construed as having been the result of more passing - which isn't entirely true. BC had 29 carries, which is near the season average # of rushing attempts by Irish opponents this season (35). Likely #5 has something to do with the improvement against the run. 
• Rushing Offense  -  Armando Allen had another solid game, with 98 yards and 4.7 ypc. With BC employing a prevent style defense, the Irish are going to have to make teams pay for this approach by pounding them on the ground for more than just 100 yards. Weis remains undefeated when he wins the rushing yards battle. 
• Passing Offense -  Clausen had an efficient day for 246 yards and no interceptions; the only 2 TDs scored by the Irish were connections between Clausen and Tate. BC played a near prevent defense, forcing the Irish to use short outside routes repeatedly. Credit to Clausen for remaining patient and taking what BC was giving him. A few more short passes to Armando or Rudolph in the middle would have been nice. The only strike against he passing offense, besides the 1st qtr safety, is the inability to score in the Red Zone. More on that later . . .
• Passing Defense - BC's quarterback Dave Shinskie had a career day, passing for 280 yards and a touchdown. His 3 interceptions were the difference in the game - but unfortunately not as much of a difference as the Irish should have reaped from the mistakes. The Irish were opportunistic but still gave up too many plays of 20+ yards (10 plays total). Personnel moves hopefully will help slowdown the opposing pass offenses.
• Special Teams  -   The Eagles won the special teams battle, particularly in the punting department. BC punted 5 times at an average of 42 yards per; the Irish punted 6 times for only 32 yards per punt. BC pinned the Irish back inside the 20 numerous times, while the Irish were unable to return the favor to BC but one time. ND's Nick Tausch made both field goals attempted, continuing his streak to 12 straight field goals made - just 1 short of the Notre Dame record of 13. BC did not attempt any field goals, and kickoff coverage was comparable for both teams. 

A few positive observations and opinions after re-watching the game and looking at the stat sheet:

• Weakside linebacker Manti Te'o led the Irish yet again in tackles with 9 on the game. Both Te'o and Brian Smith are improving - and their play has been one of the major factors stabilizing the Irish run defense. Now about that Irish secondary . . .
• Lineup changes in the secondary were the first major changes in the back 4 all season - and should have come sooner. Former free safety Harrison Smith appears to be moving back to linebacker/safety hybrid, while former Nickelback Sergio Brown will have a go at manning the Free Safety spot. Jamoris Slaughter also got a few reps at free safety, a likely candidate to start next season at FS. Harrison Smith is not a dynamic playmaker in space at Safety - he struggles in coverage and just needs to be in less space near the line of scrimmage. Jamoris Slaughter is a true sophomore that is more athletic and much better in coverage (plays cornerback as well). If he can learn the position fast enough, likely he makes more sense at free safety.
• Yes, the turnover battle was won by the Irish 5-0 - but when your margin of victory (4 pts) is less than a significant turnover advantage, clearly we weren't cashing in on these opportunities. If you were to tell me that the Irish would win the turnover battle by 5 and limit BC's ground attack, I would have bet my life savings on the Irish to win big. Amazingly they did not. I suspect the reason is Red Zone offense, discussed below. 

Yet significant questions remain for the Irish. In particular, there are two issues that appear to be the most glaring roadblocks to a 9 or 10 win season: pass defense and red zone offense.

Pass Defense  -  Clearly the pass defense remains the obvious, major issue for the Irish defense. Its never good when the Irish defense continue to be a launching pad for National QB of the Week mentions for our opponents. I do think the run defense will help the pass defense - ideally putting teams in more clear passing situations, helping prepare our secondary for the pass a bit more. Then again  -  we aren't stopping teams on 3rd and long anyway. The personnel on the field in pass coverage are inconsistent, typically making mental coverage errors more often than physical errors (just getting beat).

What's the answer? Maybe I am in denial, but I still refuse to believe we don't have solid talent in the secondary. The general common factor during the pass coverage breakdowns - in general, not every play - appears to be too much cushion. Whereas many might assume the opposition is hitting deep passes over the top of the secondary (like the days of Clifford Jefferson), most plays have been in front of the safeties. Lets try moving our DBs closer to the receivers and let them cover. Bring the safeties down a little bit more, particularly in the middle of the field.

Red Zone Offense  -  The Irish are letting inferior opponents stay in the game longer when the Irish settle for field goals. Washington and BC are prime examples - games where the Irish racked up meaningless yardage on offense - only to get a field goal or a late penalty to thwart the drive. The Irish have scored 25 of their 29 trips to the Red Zone this season - but only 16 TDs in those 29 entries. Against BC, the Irish scored just 1 TD in their 4 red zone appearances, settling for 2 field goals and a turnover at the goal line; against Washington, the Irish had 2 TDs in 6 entries to the RZ, with 4 FGs. Getting TD's on 50% of the red zone chances - which is what the Irish have for the season - needs to be the goal each week. That goal being achieved against Washington and BC would have made the wins much less difficult.

What's the answer? Run the football. Teams around College and the NFL are employing a "Cover 4" scheme where they essentially drop 6 or 7 guys into a zone coverage. Since the space is less, there are fewer holes in the zone. This defense is tough to pass against - so we must strike at the weakness of this scheme: runs up the middle. Anytime linebackers and safeties are on their heels a bit, expecting the pass, the Irish offensive line needs to dominate and Charlie needs to trust them. Teams are not going to give up easy chances for TDs to Jimmy - so we must make them pay on the ground. Armando is running at 4.9ypc, so lets let him do his thing.

Bottom line: The Irish are on pace for a 9 or 10 win season, but have at least 3 more games they can lose easily (@Pittsburgh, vs UConn, @Stanford) if they dont correct their pass defense and red zone offensive issues. The emphasis on the red zone is so important with a pass defense like we have. Certainly the Irish should handily win the next two games against Washington State (in San Antonio) and Navy - which could put the Irish at 7-2 facing a likely 8-1 Pittsburgh team on the road in a few weeks. Hopefully the Irish can use these two weeks to get some comfortable wins and work on fixing these issues.

Breaking the Other Streak . . .

While the Trojans win streak over the Irish (currently at 8 games) is more publicized, the Boston College streak is more painful; the Eagles have beaten the Irish an astounding and embarrassing 6 times in a row. Long considered the inferior Catholic school in all ways, Boston College has consistently played extremely well against the Irish, while the Irish arrive flat and uninspired. This matchup could be the perfect case of "a big game for them but not as much us"; nonetheless, the Irish have a Michigan St like streak that needs to be ended tomorrow at 2:30pm central time in Notre Dame Stadium (weather is highs in the mid 40s, very cloud, 40% chance of rain).

Boston College is a weird team this year. Well played games at home (28-21 over Florida St, 53-20 over NC State, 27-24 over Wake Forrest) with some terrible results on the road (loss 14-48 @ VTech and loss 7-25 @ Clemson) make the picture a bit murky. Certainly expect the Eagles to play well in Notre Dame Stadium, as they are quite comfortable there, winning 4 of their last 5 games in South Bend. Clearly the Boston College players and media treat this game almost like a bowl game - putting the Irish in a tough game every year.

BC is a strong rushing team, with a streaky QB. Last week, the Eagles rushed for 260 yards - 150 of which were via the "Wildcat" formation. The Irish are much improved against the run, holding the vaunted Trojans rushing offense to just 120 yards. Lots of that ground improvement has been at the expense of the passing defense. The Irish have demoted Free Safety Harrison Smith (#22 - Knoxville, TN) and have shaken things  up in the secondary. The unit is talented, and eventually just has to play better. Things in the back 4 can't get much worse, and I don't expect this BC passing attack to expedite that.

This game feels like another trap game for the Irish. Notre Dame consistently plays down to BC and Michigan St, largely because they are not one of the 2 or 3 marquee opponents on the schedule. The week after USC will certainly be a less intense and hyped atmosphere - a situation that will reveal the true character of this team.

To me, the true "character" of this team is fighting to the end - for which no lead is safe, and no deficit is either; unfortunately for my heart rate, I see another thriller coming - game decided late in the 4th quarter:

Notre Dame    42     Boston College  35

(Vatican Smoke is 4-2 predicting winners, 2-4 against the spread)

One Eagle we can all root for . . .

Instead of breaking down the USC game stats or previewing the Boston College game this week - I thought this article about Coach Weis and his relationship with BC linebacker Mark Herzlich was worth mentioning. Mark was ACC defensive player of the year last year - yet is undergoing treatment for cancer. Charlie sought out Mark, and the two have a relationship that has been important to Mark during his season sitting out, fighting the crippling disease. Definitely worth the read.

Charlie Weis off the football field was initially viewed as an arrogant, pompous wise-ass. Losing the past few years has indirectly softened the image of Coach Weis - who was humbled and forced to seriously change his public perception in order to keep his job. Weis has always loved his family, Notre Dame, and his friends - and generally been a very good person. Articles like this do not surprise me one bit, and truly show a genuine Charlie Weis. Yet articles like this, until recently, have been the exception and not the norm - as Notre Dame haters preferred the obnoxious and arrogant Weis. Good to see articles like this one about Coach Weis - who has my respect as being a good father, Notre Dame alum, and man.

All of this aside, Notre Dame did not hire Weis to be only a good person. Nor did Notre Dame hire Charlie just to keep players out of trouble (which he has), or to fully focus on academics in the football program (3.0 team average every semester). Notre Dame demands excellence both on and off the field - and 2 outta 3, whichever one is missing, won't cut it. Charlie has shown brilliance off the field, on the whole - and that deserves credit. Yet the only short and unsustained flashes of success on the field could eventually catch up to Weis. While the USC loss in Charlie's 5th season was a potential harbinger of his demise, the story of the USC loss is not yet finished (as I wrote in my previous post). The final 6 games will tell whether Charlie will be back next year. Here's rooting for you Charlie.

The Aftermath

For a program that traditionally does not settle for moral victories, Saturday's end result was another almost win for the trophy case. The Irish fell to the Trojans for the 8th time in a row, losing 34-27, despite having 3 chances from the 4 yard line as time expired. Close but no cigar - the story of ND football, post Lou Holtz. 


Before one can sort through the positives and negatives of the game, know this: Saturday was a major setback for Notre Dame. There are no moral victories or "we're improving" comments that should make any Irish fan feel better. Losing a winnable game against a top ranked arch rival - albeit a game that the Irish did not deserve to win - is never acceptable and is major strike against Charlie Weis. After Saturday, I believe its going to be very difficult for Charlie to ever get us where we need to be. There is a chance he could - with more time than likely the Dome will offer. I hope Charlie succeeds - but I fear his chances of creating a consistent top 10 program are slim considering the hot seat that is coaching at Notre Dame. 


Lets take a quick look at the preseason prediction of Vatican Smoke thru 6 games (full season prediction here):


Prediction:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - W
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - L
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L

Actual:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - L
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - W
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L

While Weis may not be the guy long term for this program, after 6 games, "We are who [Vatican Smoke] thought [we] were". The Irish are a solid, likely top 20 football team that doesn't have the defense to compete with the elite teams yet. 4-2 is the record many Irish fans expected - and the Irish goal of a BCS game is still in play, with a 6-0 finish and some good luck. The margin for error in reaching the BCS is razor thin now, if even possible. Tough losses to Michigan and USC - the most hated rivals on the schedule - certainly sting. But try to look at the big picture of where you expected us to be in the preseason. The Irish are a team that can lose to just about anyone in the country - but likely would have a chance to win against anyone in the country also, except for Alabama (yes I think we could possibly play with Florida or Texas, particularly after this weekend.) 

While I think Saturday laid a potentially heavy judgement on Charlie Weis, I don't think the story of the USC loss is finished yet. Was Saturday a good team losing a close one? Or will it be remembered as the day Charlie Weis's career at Notre Dame was finished? After the loss, his job security depends even more on the final 6 games. In the final 6 games, starting this Saturday at home against Boston College, the Irish should go 5-1 - and better make a serious run at 6-0. 4-2 or worse likely leaves Weis without a job. How the Irish respond in these final 6 games will determine how this loss to USC was remembered. 

TROY

The Irish host the University of Southern California Trojans tomorrow at 2:30pm central time, nationally televised on NBC. Some great game preview and history information on UND.com, definitely worth the read. Interesting facts about the series and this season's game:

• ND leads the all time series over the Trojans, 42-33-5. Its been a streaky series - with USC winning the past 7 years
• Pete Carroll is 7-1 against Notre Dame, losing in 2001 to Bob Davie by a score of 27-16
• USC's loss in 2001 at Notre Dame Stadium, 27-16, is still the worst loss of the Pete Carroll era (!)
• USC has beaten the last 9 AP top 25 ranked teams they have played. ND is ranked #25 this week in the AP poll. 

Not too much needs to be said about the magnitude of this game - and no one person needs this win more than Coach Charlie Weis. If he can't beat the Trojans this year, with a high powered offense at home, in his 5th season, then when? USC may be a little bit down, but they are still a top 10 team that has owned our program for nearly the past decade. Programs that win games like this one often reap the benefits for years, via a renewed confidence. The tide turns with games like this one, should the servant rise up and beat the master. 

Ending the USC winning streak would be huge for not only Weis and QB Jimmy Clausen - but the residual effect of a win may be even bigger on future recruiting. Much like in 2005, the Irish have a recruiting visitor list for tomorrow that is "sickening". Many of these top recruits need to see more job stability for Weis before they commit. A win would stabilize the program and Weis's reign atop it. A loss - particularly a bad one - will crack the foundation. Might as well call Saturday "Judgement Day" for Weis and the program. 

Now, on to the game preview. When USC has the ball . . .

• USC's Offensive Line will impose their will  -  Man on man, the Irish defensive line cannot beat the Trojans star studded offensive line. That means the Irish are going to have to outscheme the Trojans, which is difficult but not impossible. USC is 17th in the country in rushing the ball, averaging 208 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. If the Irish surrender 200 yards rushing, its going to be difficult to win the game. 
• Will the Irish defense blitz?  Tenuta always tries to confuse the offensive line with blitzes and fake blitzes, in an effort to throw a wrench in the run game. This season, he has seemed to blitz too often, and has been too predictable. Tenuta is known for his play calling though, and he is flat out due for a brilliantly called defensive game. Blitzing in the right gap, on the right play, will be the way the Irish stop the USC rushing attack. Of course, the downside of blitzing is the vulnerability to the passing attack. USC has some very solid receivers in Damien Williams and Ronald Johnson, as well as solid receiving options at TE and FB. That's why blitzing at the right time is key. 
• The Irish must get the Trojans in tough 3rd downs  - Running the ball won't be the huge weapon it is for the Trojans if the Irish can get them in some 3rd and medium or longs. The Trojans are 113th in the country in 3rd down conversions, converting an abysmal 29% of them thru 5 games. Getting the Trojans in 3rd and 5 and longer will maximize the Irish defense's chance against the Men of Troy. 

When Notre Dame has the ball . . .

• Run the football . . . after we establish the pass  -  If the Irish gain 50 yards rushing or less, no chance of winning; 100 yards on the ground, and we'll have a shot at winning. If the Irish are able to gain 150 yards, look out. Unfortunately the Trojans are giving up only 65 yards per game on the ground, ranking 5th in the country. Unless some extraordinary things happen (turnovers, big plays, weird time of possession), the Irish are going to have to get more rushing yards than the USC defense is giving upon average. Remember, when Weis outrushes an opponent while coaching at Notre Dame, he is undefeated, 18-0. Likely the only way we run the ball over 100 yards is after we spread USC out and have some passing success. Expect some draws and misdirection, moreso than straight pound it at 'em. Hughes and Allen will have to break some tackles as well. 
• Spread it around in the passing game  -  Golden Tate is going to be more covered this game than ever before. Kyle Rudolph might be matched up with Taylor Mays, the 6'3" 230 pound beast safety that will be drafted in the top 10 in April. That means Shaq Evans, Robby Parris, and Duval Kamara - each taking reps as the WR opposite of Tate or in the slot - are going to have to step up. If those 3 guys don't combine for at least 7 catches, I don't see the Irish winning this game. Golden and Kyle will get their chances as well - and we must capitalize on them. Man to man coverage on either won't come on every play. 
• Patience  -  Jimmy has played almost perfectly this season, as every defense has been unable to keep up with Clausen. USC is going to bring athletes and coverages that will test Jimmy's patience a bit. Being patient and taking what the defense gives him will be critical - particularly since the Trojan offense is not a quick strike offense like in past years. The Irish will have to score plenty to win, no doubt, but I don't believe the Irish have to score a touchdown on every possession. Some of the best plays made in this game are going to be the plays where Jimmy hits the check down option, or throws the ball away. 

 

There are a lot of good stats out there, especially ones that start with "USC has outscored the Irish . . ." or "Notre Dame has failed to score (against USC) . . ."  No need to rehash all these stats that say the Irish can't beat the Trojans. Doubt certainly lives in the hearts and minds of many Irish fans. The close wins in games that shouldn't have been close were certainly thrilling, but also somewhat disheartening. Many will point towards the close wins over Michigan St, Purdue, and Washington as evidence that the Irish will fail against the Trojans; I say that hidden within the 3 victories lie our greatest strengths  -  experience winning close games, a quarterback who has led come from behind 4th quarter drives in each of the last 4 games, and timely defensive stops.   

These strengths propel the Irish to victory over the Trojans, in a great battle in cool weather. The Irish make one more play than the Trojans - as the Notre Dame Stadium fans, Notre Dame mystique, and the experience in close games give the Irish an edge. Not a perfect performance on the field for either team  -  but a perfect day for Notre Dame:

Notre Dame  31     USC  24

(Vatican Smoke's record - 4-1 straight up, 1-4 vs the spread)

If you're a fan of college football, I'd watch this one if I were you.

Mid-Term 2009: Irish Positional Rankings

As described in the previous post, we are re-evaluating the 10 positions that we ranked in the preseason. Each of the 10 positions were previewed in depth - including recruiting stars, depth chart, expectations etc. Check out the positional previews here, to get a quick rundown of the details. The positions were ranked #10 (most worrisome) to #1 (most confident in) - and after 5 games of the 2009 season, we are going to re-rank the positions in the same countdown fashion - based on 5 games (half a season essentially) of actual production. And instead of 10 posts, we're doing it all right here in 1 post.

Lets dive right in, starting at #10 . . .

10. Cornerbacks (Preseason ranking - #2)  -  No position has been more disappointing than cornerback. The defensive line struggles were expected - but not the struggles of the star studded secondary. A preseason strength quickly evaporated into a weakness, as the Irish rank #110 in the country in pass defense, giving up 264 yards a game through the air (and only 2 interceptions by cornerbacks). For those that think recruiting rankings are worthless, here is your position -  all 5 CBs that have played significant time this season for the Irish were ranked 4 star or above by Rivals.com. Most programs don't have 1 CB thats a 4 star, while the Irish boast 5. Whether the lack of pressure, a questionable defensive scheme, or just the lack of talent is the issue most hurting the secondary, things must change.

9.  Defensive Line (Preseason ranking #8)  -  These guys have performed in line with expectations, fulfilling their promise as a team weakness. The lines' troubles were easily predicted by the recruiting misses between 2005 and 2007 - a prediction that highlights the importance of recruiting every position every year. The bright side is that the DLinemen have played better in each game this season, largely due a heavy rotation of fresh bodies. Unfortunately, we didn't start this substituting until some damage had been done in the Michigan game - easily the worst game for the defensive lineman. The move of Kapron Lewis Moore from End to Tackle on certain downs has helped free up some room for the premier defensive line talent - Ethan Johnson. The sophomore has been the lone bright spot, decently productive with 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, and 3 tackles for a loss despite the complete attention of opposing offensive lines. This unit's continued improvement is key for the Irish BCS hopes. Can fresh bodies and energy make up for the lack of depth and talent?

8.  Linebacker (Preseason ranking #4)  -  Another disappointment, yet with a potential bright spot emerging. Good linebackers can compensate for poor DLine play. Unfortunately our linebackers havent been much better than the DLine. Brian Smith has led the LBs in tackles with 26 thru 5 games, but he has also failed to get off blocks consistently and missed far too many tackles for being the team's leader on defense. Toryan Smith started initially at MLB, before being replaced by uber-talented freshman Manti Te'o (Te'o is now the starting WLB, while Brian Smith moves from WLB to MLB). Telling stat - Te'o has 16 tackles with 1 start and limited action in the other 4 games. Toryan Smith has 14 tackles - with 4 starts. Te'o has officially been turned loose - and hopefully he can give the defense a spark.

7. Safety (Preseason ranking #6)  -  Harrison Smith and Kyle McCarthy have been about as expected. Steady, not spectacular, but solid. Each are the top tacklers on the team, with Harrison at 32 tackles to McCarthy's 49. Unfortunately, our safeties leading the team in tackles means the front 7 are missing tackles. While McCarthy has 3 big interceptions, Smith has none; in addition, both have missed some key tackles, particularly in the Washington game. While the front 7 asks a lot of these safeties tackling wise, McCarthy and Smith can do better. Expect both to make a few more big plays - Smith in particular.

6. Offensive Line (Preseason ranking #10)  -  The surprise of the season thus far, at least based on preseason expectations. The unit has paved the way for a 4.11 yards per carry rushing attack, averaging 148 yards per game. In addition, pass protection for Clausen has been great - only 9 sacks thru 5 games (including a few runs/slips in the rain, related to Clausen's foot injury). The Irish performance in particular on 3rd and short has been a major upgrade over past seasons. Finally we are an "average" rushing team (after being dreadful for 3 years) - and we need to stay there, at the minimum. While this unit has performed well in numerous spurts this season, especially against Michigan and Purdue - the key question is can they dominate an entire game , paving the way for the Irish ground attack? Another key question will be answered this weekend, as the Irish OLine face their toughest test yet.

5. Wide Receivers (Preseason ranking #3)  -  Tough call here. While Golden Tate and Michael Floyd have been fantastic thru the first 4 games, Floyd's injury exposed the issue highlighted in the preseason: who will step up as the 3rd WR? Passing teams need multiple options, particularly when injuries occur. Duval Kamara has disappointed, Robby Parris has been ok, and Shaq Evans is on the cusp but not quite there yet. I predicted Shaq would have emerged by now as the gamebreaker many expect the freshman to be. Shaq is going to be a major part of the offense in the 2nd half of the season, you can count on it. Why? Defenses cannot afford to give anything less than their full attention to Golden Tate, meaning Shaq, along with TE Kyle Rudolph, must make them pay. Luckily for us, Michael Floyd could be back as soon as the Pittsburgh game on November 14th.

4. Special Teams  (Preseason ranking #5)  -  This unit has done a tad better than I expected, particularly in the FG unit. The coverage and return units have been very very average, while freshman Theo Riddick has shown potential on a few kickoff returns. Yes, the long TD kickoff return for a touchdown by Michigan was a backbreaker, and unacceptable for a coverage unit in a big game; but the field goal accuracy of freshman Nick Tausch likely won the Washington game, as he connected on 5/5 field goals. Tausch has been a fantastic 10 of 11 this season, missing just one 28 yarder at Michigan. What a great feeling it is to know that we have a kicker that is going to consistently do his job. If Tausch can keep his accuracy, and the return guys Theo Riddick and Golden Tate can break a couple, this unit could be further up this ranking.

3.  Running Back  (Preseason ranking #7)  -  Another surprise. The book on our running backs in the preseason was that each was solid, capable of grinding out yards when blocking was above average. Yet each of our backs was seen as someone who struggled to gain yards without proper blocking, and struggled to break long runs or numerous tackles. While neither has been spectacular, Armando Allen and Robert Hughes have both had moments of brilliance. Armando's game vs Michigan (141 yards rushing, 6.6 per carry) was the best RB game for the Irish in a few seasons. Hughes had his moments against Washington (6.2 ypc) and Purdue (4.5 ypc), while Jonas Gray has done solidly in a few carries. Freshman Theo Riddick appears to be the next Irish back to emerge, averaging 6.1 ypc on his handful of carries thus far. Depth and production have been very solid - but not perfect. The running game - the running backs in particular - is going to be critical in 2nd half games against solid defenses like Connecticut, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Stanford. Maintaining will not be good enough for this unit. 

2. Tight End  (Preseason ranking #9)  -  I was a bit off here. My initial low ranking of #9 for this group was based on two factors: the Irish lacked proven depth at TE behind stud Kyle Rudolph; and also, that lack of depth would significantly hinder the playcalling and formations at Weis's disposal. Historically Weis loves multiple TE sets; but this year, he's spread things out much more often going 4 and 5 wide. When we have used multiple tight ends - Mike Ragone and Bobby Burger have stepped up as very capable blocking TEs in the formations. Most importantly at this position, Kyle Rudolph has been absolutely spectacular. Weis deserves a ton credit for using Rudolph in numerous ways - in the slot, split wide, and on the line of scrimmage - essentially as another receiver. Moving Rudolph around has kept defenses on their heels, making it tougher to key on him and Golden Tate only. The result? Rudolph has acheived WR like numbers (21 receptions in 5 games, 2nd on the team to Golden Tate). Other than Jimmy Clausen, is there a more a player the Irish could ill afford to lose more than Rudolph?

1. Quarterback  (Preseason ranking #1)  -  Got one right, finally. Clausen has been lights out, easily better than any Irish QB has been in recent memory. Clausen is #1 in the country in passing efficiency - which is essentially the QB Rating of college football. He is averaging 309 passing yards per game, and currently has 12 TDs, despite playing sparingly in 1 game (Purdue) due to a foot injury. Backup Dayne Crist has performed well when called upon, creating a backup QB situation that is not the dropoff it typically has been during the Weis era. The question that remains for Jimmy Clausen's career - can he pass and lead the Irish against an elite defense like USC? We can't wait to see what he can do on Saturday.


While offensively the Irish are very confident and ready for the 2nd half of the season - they must continue to improve on the offensive side of the ball. Fewer penalties or better play calling down the stretch would have won the Michigan game. Converting in the red zone would have won the Washington game going away. And with 2nd half of the season games against the aforementioned tough defenses of UConn, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Stanford, the Irish are going to have to run the ball even better than the improved performance thus far. As for the defense . . . the Irish need a spark. Confidence appears to be the major issue, particularly in the secondary. While he may not be a cornerback or safety, Manti Te'o could be the spark the Irish need. The Hawaiian's calm demeanor could rub off on the Irish - allowing them to focus consistently, not jumping from emotional highs to lows.

Through all the rankings, two questions for the 2nd half of the season have emerged:

1. Can the defense improve to an average level?
2. Can the Irish offense maintain an above 4 yards per carry on the ground?

Barring injuries or unforeseen difficulties, the keys to a BCS bowl lie within these questions. Hopefully the Irish used the bye week to rest, rejuvenate, and refocus on the fundamentals. The Trojans will be ready on Saturday, and hopefully so will the Irish. Check back for game previews later this week.

Mid-term - Re-Ranking the Positions

While the Irish are only 5 games into the season, we felt the bye week headed up to the game of the year next weekend would be a great time to give out mid season grades. The grades will be structured around a re-ranking of the 10 positional groupings that were ranked in the preseason. Check out the preseason positional previews using this link, where we ranked each of the 10 positional groupings from most reliable to most worrisome for the upcoming season - detailing the depth chart, strengths, weaknesses, etc. Here is the final preseason ranking (#10 is least reliable/most worrisome, while #1 is most reliable/least worrisome):

Preseason Positional Ranking

10. Offensive Line

9. Tight End

8. Defensive Line

7. Running Back

6. Safety

5. Special Teams

4. Linebackers

3. Wide Receivers

2. Cornerbacks

1. Quarterbacks

Already I see a few glaring problems with our preseason predictions, although #1 looks safe. Over the next 3 posts, we are going to have the 10 positions broken into the Good, the Average, and the Worrisome. We'll start with the Worrisome positions and work our way towards the good ones.

Check back on Monday for the first post on the "Worrisomes". Have a great bye week - and just in case you are wondering about who the Irish play next week, here is a video to get your blood flowing:

Huskies Post Game: Message to Coach Weis

The Irish beat the Huskies on Saturday in blood pressure raising fashion, 37-30 in overtime. Lead changes, goal line stands, poor tackling, highlight catches, untimely penalties, superb quarterbacking - there are as many positives as negatives in this game, a list so long its going to be a few days before I can compile one. 

Losing often leaves players more receptive to coaching, as well as more able to learn from mistakes. Scary thing for the Irish is that winning often delays that perspective - unless leaders instill humility throughout. While winning is the only thing that really matters, the Irish must address the glaring issues of the first 4 games. Not only address these issues - but truly, and humbly, every coach and player must look in the mirror and figure out how to correct the flaws that will prevent us from being elite. Fundamental flaws like tackling, offensive line penalties, and getting off blocks. Every area on this team must improve significantly to have a chance at a BCS bowl, let alone even playing close with USC. 

Yes, even Jimmy Clausen must improve. While his 422 yard performance against the Huskies dazzled, there were 11 points that Jimmy gave the Huskies on a net basis. Jimmy's backward swing pass in the 2nd qtr gave the Huskies 7 points - easy. Jimmy missed a wide open Golden Tate for an easy first down inside the 10 yard line in the 2nd qtr - instead nearly getting intercepted in the end zone on a triple coverage pass to Rudolph. The Irish settled for a field goal instead of a touchdown, or at least a first and goal. Call it harsh, but I say 11 points right there can be attributed to the top rated QB in the country via passer efficiency (and a serious Heisman contender). In short, everyone needs to look in the mirror and get it together - even Jimmy. While Jimmy has been nothing short of breathtaking this season, a true leader steps up and tells the team that 11 points were his fault. Even if he played spectacularly otherwise. Jimmy is a captain and by all accounts has been a great leader this year. Lets hope he steps up and seizes this opportunity to establish a precedent of accepting nothing short of perfection. 

My message to Coach Weis: Don't let the winning be an aspirin for a migraine. Treat the injury and don't manage the symptoms. Since everyone thinks they can coach from the couch, here is my speech for Charlie - all ready for him to give to the team tomorrow:

"Don't let the ESPN highlights fool you - you guys have barely won three weeks in a row now. Congratulations, you just beat Purdue and Washington. Lets do f%cking cart wheels. You keep playing like this, and you'll get embarrassed by USC. Then the talking heads are going to have a field day. Then after the USC game, if yall still dont get it together, you will lose at least 2 or 3 more games late in the year. You are what you are - a wildly talented yet inconsistent team grasping victory from the jaws of defeat over and over - against teams with far less talent. If you dont get your sh*t together, the highlight of your season will be beating Purdue on the road. What can you do better? Everything. Nothing short of everything. Every block, every pass, every tackle, every decision - better. Be better. The rest of the season starts now."

These two weeks are the biggest two weeks of Charlie Weis's coaching career at Notre Dame. If he can't lead the Irish over the Trojans - or at least share the field with them - this season, at home, with the best Irish QB ever, then Charlie Weis never will. 

Washington Huskies Preview

Notre Dame (3-1) tees it off at 2:30pm central time on Saturday vs. the Washington Huskies (2-2). The Irish are a 13 point favorite over the vastly improved Huskies, who are 0-7 all time versus Notre Dame. Weather in South Bend looks to be cool at about 50 degrees, with the chance of rain at 60%. The Irish have a bye next week before playing the USC Trojans on October 17th. With the bye week, hopefully the Irish are fully focused on the Huskies and entering the SC game at 4-1. 

What to expect . . . when Washington has the ball:

Jake Locker is good  -  Scouts are starting to notice, and some, like Wes Bunting, have proclaimed Locker to be the #1 overall NFL prospect for THIS YEAR. Wow. On the same board, Clausen is #14. And I'm not talking quarterbacks, I am talking overall. Locker has a lot of the qualities you can't teach - size (6'3", 230 pounds), speed (4.5 40 yrd dash - maybe faster), and arm strength. His accuracy has improved as he finally has been asked to be a pocket passer by new coach Steve Sarkisian - unlike the patchwork of an offense run by his former coach, Ty Willingham. The main thing Locker lacks is experience in a pro style offense, since he has only been a pocket passer for 4 games this season. The Irish are going to have to force Locker into some mistakes and keep him at or below his current 59% completion rate. 

By air or by ground?  -  Washington certainly will look for offensive balance, a staple of any pro style offense. The Huskies use similar schemes as USC, with the head coach (Steve Sarkisian) and defensive coordinator (Nick Holt) both hailing from the 2008 USC staff. However, the Huskies are ranked #94 in the country in rushing yards, yet #38 in passing. Certainly having played USC and LSU, those rushing stats are likely skewed and should improve. Expect Washington to attack the Irish on the ground and in the short passing game. While the Irish performed admirably against the run last week, the short passing game on our blitzes is still the way to nail the Irish. I expect the Irish to do another solid job in the area of run defense, but hopefully not at the expense of the short passing game. 

Te'o?   Word has it that the Irish are veeeerry close to unleashing the ubertalented Hawaiian linebacker Manti Te'o. Clearly the Irish defense is doing below expectations, and clearly Te'o has the speed, size, and instincts that no one on the defense has. Need a good zone / QB spy for Locker, that occasionally blitzes? Here is your guy. Look for a few flashes of brilliance from Te'o. 

Be careful when blitzing  -  In the first 3 games, the Irish blitzed an estimated 75% of plays - vs Purdue, an estimated 55%. Clearly the lowered blitz % helped at least keep the opposition guessing. The real problem with blitzing against Locker is containment. If Locker gets out of the pocket on a blitz, there is a decent chance he will have green pastures and could run for some major yards. Locker's scrambling will be the best offensive weapon Washington will have on Saturday - mark it down. Look for some type of safety or linebacker "spy" coverage - where one defender has eyes on Locker at all times from the middle of the field. This defender will be able to support the run, play some zone defense against the pass, and (attempt) to keep Locker contained. Let's make Locker pass the ball to the average wideouts or hand the ball off to the mediocre running backs - or at the minimum, have to make at least one tackler miss when he runs. Hopefully Tenuta-blitz has a good plan up his sleeves. 

What to expect . . . when the Irish have the ball:

Stats and rainy weather say attack the ground first . . . But the Irish won't. The strength of Washington's defense is the linebackers, ranked by some as one of the top linebacker corps in the Pac 10. This group of linebackers is similar to Michigan St - good tacklers, tough against blocks, and very experienced. Weis loves to force teams with good linebackers into putting more defensive backs on the field - thus taking a few of the linebackers off the field. Just like North Carolina last year, and Michigan St this year, Weis does this by spreading the defense out with 4 and 5 wide offensive sets. The weather (rainy) and Washington's weak run defense (94th in the country) seem counter to this strategy, as does Jimmy Clausen's turf toe, which will give him pain in his right plant foot all season. I don't expect the Irish to throw it all day - in fact, I expect the Irish to run from some of these spread sets. Weis should be able to get the defense on their heels defending the pass, then run the ball. As soon as the Huskies adjust, Weis will pass some more. Establishing the pass - not the run - has always been Weis's way of forcing a defense's hand. 

Plenty of Wildcat . . . err, I mean the "Lepre-cat"  -  The Irish have apparently renamed the Wildcat to the "Leprecat", which sounds a bit weird but whatever. Most realize that the Leprecat is a run first formation. Many do not realize the Wildcat is a version of one of the oldest offenses in all of football - the Single Wing. The key to this formation is numbers - since the QB is a running threat, that leaves one extra blocker for run plays. The offense is never outnumbered by blitzers - giving the offense a clear advantage. I expect the Irish to use the Leprecat against Washington not only to help minimize their linebackers, but also because I dont believe Washington has seen any Wildcat this season. I could be wrong, but USC, LSU, and Stanford likely don't feature the formation. 

More 4/5 Wide and Leprecat  -  Both of these offensive extremes will be used brilliantly by Weis on Saturday. Each formation will be used to minimize the biggest strength of the Huskies - Linebackers. Weis undeniably is a fantastic playcaller - and he is finally hitting his stride in the college game. Best example of that? The Leprecat. Weis was not familiar with the formation - but that didn't stop him from studying the scheme and installing it in the offseason. As the Leprecat continues to evolve, look for the formation to gain more and more attention nationally each week. Expect some new wrinkles as the season progresses, but also expect the Irish to improve execution of the basics.  Weis is going to call a brilliant game offensively this Saturday against the Huskies. 

Three things bother me about this game: the rain, Clausen's toe, and Jake Locker. We are a better offensive team than Washington, so the rain could actually favor the Irish. Contrary to popular opinion, rain often helps offenses more than defenses, since the surface is harder for defenders to navigate while reacting to the offense. Clausen's toe is a certainly a concern - but clearly his throws were as good as needed at the end of the Purdue game. Mentally he made one mistake on his only interception of the season - but the mistake was not physical or related to the toe. That leaves Locker  -  how do we contain him? Keeping Locker in the pocket will be important, as will forcing him to pass to beat us. For all the NFL scouting and gushing over Locker's talents, he is still only completing 59% of his passes, with 6 TDs to 3 INTs. If we make Locker pass and don't give the Huskies easy field position or turnovers, I think its going to be very difficult for Locker to outpass Clausen. 

The Irish should win this game by two touchdowns, but I don't think they will. While Weis calls a great game, sometimes he has a tendancy to switch up the offense just for the sake of doing so, leading to stalled drives in key situations. The Irish defense is not quite ready to dominate a game yet, if ever. Expect the Irish to control the game with a balanced offensive performance - with the game never in doubt - but not to cover Vegas' "Notre Dame Adjusted" betting spread. 

Prediction:

Clausen throws for 2 TDs, while Golden Tate runs for 1 in the Leprecat and Robert Hughes adds another. Manti Te'o causes a fumble and finishes with 4 tackles, including 1 sack and 1 tackle for loss. 

IRISH    31       HUSKIES   21

(Vatican Smoke's record is 3-1 straight up picking the winner, 1-3 against the spread)