3-1

The Irish passed a road test this past weekend at Purdue, winning on a very late TD toss by Clausen to sophomore tight end Kyle Rudolph with 24 seconds remaining. On a 4th and goal play nonetheless. The TD sealed the victory at 24-21, in a game that previous Irish teams likely would have lost.

While many are discouraged that the Irish needed a late score to put away Purdue, there are lots of positive trends and successes that came out of this game. Personally, I feel better after this game than after the Michigan State game. It feels like we won the game - not relying on the opponent to lose it.

The positives:

Run Defense - Irish limited the Boilers and the #2 overall rusher in the country (Bolden) to 74 yards rushing. Interestingly enough, the Boilers rushed for 170 yards vs Oregon at Autzen Stadium. Success.

Less Blitzing & More Cover 2 - It has been estimated that the Irish blitzed 80% of passing situations in the first 3 games. The Irish blitzed about 55% vs Purdue (per Tim Prister - Irish Illustrated), employing much more cover 2 zone. The zone coverage and blitz anticipation preceding no blitz clearly helped the Irish defense. Purdue finished with 289 yards passing (same amount as vs Oregon), which is not great at all - but clearly better than Michigan State.

Rushing Offense - The Irish rushed for 167 yards, winning the rushing battle, and putting Charlie Weis at 18-0 when he wins the rushing battle (If that's not a telling stat, I don't know what is). Unfortunately the 2nd half run game slowed down a bit, or rather failed to result in 2nd half points. The Irish finished at 3.9 ypc for the game, a tick below ideal of about 4.5 ypc or more.

Offensive Wrinkles - Missing 3 of their best offensive players in Armando Allen, Michael Floyd, and Clausen (1/2 the game), many knew this game would be difficult for the Irish offense. The 2nd and 3rd quarters (until the 4th and 10 call) were easily the most brilliant stretch of offensive playcalling I have ever seen from Weis. Employing a genius dose of the Wildcat, 4 running backs (Gray, Hughes, Riddick, & even WR Golden Tate), and numerous new running plays from varying formations, the Irish were able to control the 2nd and 3rd quarters with minimal pass attempts by rookie QB Dayne Crist. The strategy looked to be the perfect way to grind out a win on the road with injured stars. Unfortunately the momentum changed and the Irish were not able to continue this approach - but for awhile, the Irish rushing attack was unstoppable. Don't think Weis will not build off these successes and look to include more of this in his gameplans going forward.

Less Penalties - The Irish were penalized less than their opponent for the first time in 3 weeks, earning 6 penalties costing 43 yards (Purdue had 13 for 103 yards). A few procedural illegal formation penalties negated big plays, and one TD to Golden Tate in particular was called back because Duval Kamara (WR) was not on the line of scrimmage. Amazingly - a Big East officiating crew handled the game, not a Big 10 crew. SURPRISE SURPRISE.

Field Goals - Freshman Nick Tausch continues his solid placekicking, nailing a 42 yarder in the 1st quarter. He is now 5/6 on the season including 3/4 on the road.

Clutch Finish on Offense - 3 minutes to go, down by 4. Clausen made numerous big time throws. Best throw of the game was a perfectly thrown pass to Robby Parris on 3rd and 14 from about midfield. The rifle (and I mean rifle) pass to win the game to Rudolph on 4th and goal was an NFL caliber throw - both via the accuracy and power. Clausen and the offense expected to score on that final drive - and it showed.

Certainly there were negatives:

Blown Coverage on Purdue's 4th quarter TD to take the lead
Poor punting most of the game
Still too many offensive line/procedural penalties

Poor Coaching Decision by Weis - Going for a 4th and 10 late in the 3rd quarter on the Purdue 34 yard line. After the ensuing timeout preceding the play, the Irish stuck with the pass play for the 10 yards. Dayne Crist was sacked for a 7 yard loss, as Ross-Ade Stadium erupted, clearing giving Purdue momentum they didn't have. Purdue followed on the first play on offense with a game changing 28 yard gain. If Weis punts the ball, less momentum if any is transferred, and the Boilers are forced to go an additional 20 to 40 yards. 4th and 5 or 6 - maybe - but not 4th and 10 when your defense was clearly winning the battles and you have a limited offense with a rookie QB.

Despite the past 3 games being closer than they should have been, you can't deny the following: the Irish are on pace to meet the Trojans with a 4-1 record in what will be THE defining game of the Weis era. Also, the Irish have found a way to win 2 games the past 2 weeks that they wouldn't have won in previous years. This Irish team has now overcome three 4th quarter deficits in each of the last 3 weeks, going 2-1 in those games. Clausen and the offense clearly have shown they can score when the game is on the line - which will certainly come in handy later in the year. Later in the season, the Irish are going to greatly benefit from these close victories and late offensive successes. You watch.

This week - Irish vs Washington. Irish are 13 point favorites over the improving Huskies. Jimmy Clausen and Armando Allen will play and practice today, and should be at or very near 100%. I expect a high scoring game that the Irish better show up for. The Huskies will be a tough opponent, coming off a loss. Based on how the season has gone thus far, a close down to the wire finish would not be surprising - in fact that seems more likely than a blowout.

Purdue Game Preview: "It's Purdue Football!!"

The Irish head down to West Lafayette, IN on Saturday to play Purdue in a nationally televised game on ESPN (7pm central). Purdue can score, but certainly will defer to the Irish in team talent. Apparently the full fledged a$$holes think they have an equalizer - the dreaded crowd "black out" and "glow in the dark" t-shirts made especially for this game. Purdue has also released pictures of the special game ball to be used - quite simply, amazing! Clearly Purdue fans have responded, with as nearly 8000 tickets remain available. And remember - its Purdue football!! 

All joking aside, the first road night game on national television of the season will be a test for the Irish. Purdue is still an offense-first program as it was under Joe Tiller, who was replaced by 1st year coach Danny Hope this season. The offense is a bit more focused on the run than Tiller's "basketball on grass", which could give the Boilers a decent shot. Some key questions:

When Purdue has the ball . . . 

• Can the Irish stop Ralph Bolden at running back? The sophomore running back is the #2 RB in the country in yardage, rushing for an a very strong 6.8 ypc and 140 ypg. The 5' 9" stack is very quick and his stature seems to be an advantage in getting through the gaps unnoticed. Bolden has achieved these numbers against Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Oregon - 3 decent teams. Expect the Irish to perform well against the run - continuing the trend that started in the 2nd half of the Michigan St game. The Irish limited Michigan St to 105 yards rushing on 25 carries in the game, but only 26 yards in the 2nd half on the ground.  
• Can the Irish defense pressure and cover? Expect the Irish to put a focus on stopping the ground game and Bolden, forcing first year QB Joey Elliot and the average Purdue passing attack to beat the Irish thru the air. Can we bring pressure, yet still cover on the plays when Elliot is ready for our Tenuta-blitz? As I mentioned in my previous post, the Irish pressure and coverage schemes thru 3 games seem a bit "out of sync". Teams are countering the Irish blitz with quick passing using slants and middle of the field short routes. We must put our corners and linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage and the receivers. This makes us more susceptible to the deep pass  -  but I say let our talented corners cover. Lots more difficult to cover short slants than deep go routes. 
• Will there be any defensive lineup changes?  Clearly the Irish defense is struggling, but the company line this week has been "it's not the scheme - it's just players missing a few plays". Continued rotation of players on the defensive line is expected (9 lineman played against MSU last week). If any lineup changes are made, expect Manti Te'o to get more snaps in place of Toryan Smith, with Te'o lining up at weak side backer while Brian Smith moves from weak to middle. With Purdue's rushing attack, I think Te'o won't get significantly more snaps than previous weeks. 

When Notre Dame has the ball . . .

• Will injuries be a factor? Jimmy Clausen and Armando Allen have been very limited in practice this week. Yet it appears Clausen will play for sure, and Allen will be a game time decision. Michael Floyd's effect will be felt (he's out for the year), but I think a full speed Clausen, Allen, Rudolph, and Tate can compensate and keep the ball moving. Good news is that Clausen played the entire second half last week w/o Floyd and with the turf toe injury, and the offense didn't miss a beat. If Clausen doesn't play, I am intrigued at what Dayne Crist can do. Weis has been itching to play the 6'4" true Sophomore, obviously for a reason. Allen will almost certainly have less carries even if he plays, so look for running backs Jonas Gray and Freshman Theo Riddick to step up.
• Run or pass?  The Irish have looked their best in 5 WR formations this year - thru 3 games, they have basically been unstoppable in the formation. Do the Irish continue this, or try to pound it out against Purdue on the ground? As good as our passing game is, expect the Irish to try to run it first. Last year, the mediocre Irish rushing attack amassed 200 yards on the ground against Purdue, winning 38-21. Would love to see 4 RBs play, and something like 250 yards team rushing. Would be boring, but that's how good teams win when they are on the road or hampered by injury. 
• Who will win the "replace Michael Floyd" competition at WR? Michael Floyd is irreplaceable. Yet someone is going to have to produce in his spot. This game looks to be an open competition between Duval Kamara, Robby Parris, and Shaq Evans. Duval Kamara is the experienced Junior that is big and has shown spurts of being a very good WR. He is easily the best blocking WR the Irish have, which cannot be underestimated in screen and swing pass heavy Weis offense. Expect runs, swing passes, and screen passes to Kamara's side of the formation. Would love to see the explosive freshman Shaq Evans step up - something many Notre Dame fans have been very anxious to see all year. If Evans doesn't step up soon, I fear he will be unable to secure the confidence of the coaching staff until next season. 

If Notre Dame brings their A game, this is a 20 point easy victory - bring your B game, and this one is winnable but could get interesting. The Irish will likely have a gameplan centered upon running the ball, which is quickly becoming a strength. Clausen will protected and ready to play  -  expect lots of screen, swing, and then a few deep passes whenever Golden Tate is left in 1 on 1 coverage.  

Bottom line: Purdue's defense quite simply will not stop the Irish unless the Irish stop themselves. The Irish defense finally scores a touchdown on a long interception return by Safety (and Tennessean) Harrison Smith. The Irish offense cruises with an impressive, balanced attack. 

Prediction:

IRISH   40     PURDUE    23

(for the season, VS is 2-1 on predictions, 0-3 against the spread)

Defense thats just offensive

Clearly the Irish defense is struggling. The Irish defense ranks 94th overall in the country - 91st against the pass, and 74th against the run. Turrrrable, turrrrable, turrrrable. But why? Many point to scheme, the defensive line, coaching, or just lack of talent as the causes of the performance. Likely its a combination of issues. Here are a few to ponder:

Scheme  -  Many people think the Irish are blitzing ourselves out of plays. That's partially true. The talent of the blitzers is one thing - but one issue is the lack of surprise with the blitzing. The opposition knows the Irish will blitz roughly 75% of the time, and their passing offenses thus far have been perfectly designed around 3 step drops by the QB, using slants, drags, and short hitch routes. These short routes are very difficult for cornerbacks to defend - particularly with as much cushion (sometimes 10 yards) as Irish CBs are giving to opposing WRs. The blitz and cornerback cushion limit big plays at the cost of the shorter routes. The coverage just doesn't match the short routes teams are using to counter the expected Irish blitz. Hopefully the coaches will get the coverage and blitzing more "in sync". Just once I would love to see all our linebackers on the line of scrimmage - clearly blitzing - only to drop back into zone coverage looking for a slant route. Young QBs are so worried about getting rid of the ball against the Irish, maybe we pick one off.  

Tackling  -  Great post here by the guys at Blue Gray Sky. Defensive Tackle Ian Williams, and Middle linebacker Toryan Smith have typically been on the ground or just out of position on most plays. Gaping holes in the middle = easy rushing yards. You can scheme and coach all you want, but when players over pursue (Toryan) or lose their balance (Ian), they must be held accountable. Maybe the players should be more well coached - but there comes a point where players must execute by winning the 1 on 1 battles. 

Talent  -  We will give out midseason grades to compare with the preseason positional previews here at Vatican Smoke. So far, the defensive line has majorly disappointed, the linebackers have slightly disappointed, and the cornerbacks have been disappointing. I have a feeling talent is not the issue in the secondary - but rather the lack of pressure combined with our soft coverage not quite ready for the shorter routes teams are using. But clearly we are undermanned on the defensive line. The linebackers are young and talented enough to play much better. The recruiting misses of 2005 thru 2007 on the defensive line are coming home to roost just like the offensive line misses in 2003-2005 came to fruition in 2007. 

1st Down  -  Tenuta emphasizes "winning on 1st down" as much as all defensive coaches do. I'd say that first down is even more important in Tenuta's scheme, because blitzing works much more effectively in 2nd and 3rd and long than shorts. The Irish are a putrid 95th in the country in first down defense. The Irish defensive improvement, if its happens, will highly correlate with 1st down performance. Fixing those gaping holes in the middle will go a long way in this department. 

Red Zone  -  Amazingly, the Irish defense ranks 5th in the country in red zone defense. A fumble by Nevada, an interception by MSU last weekend, and a missed FG by Michigan all have aided this stat. I have a feeling that this statistic is an anomaly - but maybe not. Red Zone Defense is critical, clearly, and the Irish have performed darn well so far. Lets see if this ranking holds up after a few more games. 

A great play call that should have ended the MSU game 2 plays earlier  -  You can read my post on Irish message board ND nation by clicking here - including video and more detail. I describe a play that could have won the game, and was clearly a solid playcall by the defensive coaches. The play I am describing is a 3rd down and 6 on Michigan St's final drive, at the Irish 26 yard line. Ray Herring, playing nickelback (cornerback on the slot receiver, essentially), defends/tips pass up in the air, only to be caught anyway by the Michigan St WR near the ND sideline, falling out of bounds, for the first down. Herring faked the blitz, then dropped back into apparent man to man coverage on the slot receiver. In fact he was in zone coverage at the first down marker/flat area - and he broke at the perfect time on the outside 10 yard hitch route route run by the WR, who appeared to be wide open.  Bottom line - Herring did not execute via an easy pass deflection out of bounds or interception. The tip out of bounds forces a game tying 42 yard field goal, giving the Irish the ball back with 1:10 in a tie game, at worst. An interception ends the game. Two plays later the Spartans miss a wide open receiver in the end zone that would never have happened. Blame some playcalls by the defensive staff, but players must make plays. 

The Purdue game preview should be up on Friday. Purdue should be excited and ready to play  -  its a home night game, nationally televised on ESPN, and they have planned a "black out" with glow in the dark Purdue tshirts. What a bunch of full fledged a$$holes. The Irish offense should have little problem moving the ball and scoring. However, the offensive is banged up with Armando Allen and Jimmy Clausen nursing some injuries this week - and it would certainly be nice if the defense made some plays, avoiding another shootout. Winning on the road in a hostile environment is never easy - and this will be a decent test for the Irish before tougher road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford later in the season. Again, I am anxious to see how the Irish respond. 

2-1

The Irish finally defeated Sparty on Saturday, winning 33-30 in a down to the wire finish. Charlie Weis has now broken two streaks that the previous two ND coaches Davie & Willingham could not - beating Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium, and winning a bowl game.

Saturday was at the same time a huge relief and a huge concern. The defense clearly is struggling to stop the pass and the run, giving up 459 yards of total offense and 30 points to an average offensive team in Michigan State. And certainly the Spartans failed to capitalize on some defensive miscues (one at the end of the game in particular). That said, the Irish deserve to be 2-1 and are still technically in play for a solid season. Certainly it's a positive to see the Irish take advantage of the late Spartan miscue, which incidentally came on the first real QB pressure of the day.

Lots of things have to happen for the Irish to finish with that 10-2 record and a BCS berth. Two key questions that must be answered in order to reach that goal, at this stage of the season:

• Without Floyd, can the offense keep scoring 34 points per game? With Floyd out, defenses are going to double team Golden Tate. Kyle Rudolph and the other wide receivers - time to step up. Expect Weis to counter with a very heavy dose of Rudolph, who's size and hands create a mismatch with nearly every linebacker and safety in the country. Whether its Rudolph or Shaq Evans or other wideouts - Charlie is going to have to change the playbook and replace Floyd's production.
• Can the Irish win on the road? During 2007 and 2008, the Irish have gone 4-7 on the road, with 2 road wins in each season. 2007 featured road wins against UCLA and Stanford, while 2008 road wins were Navy (in Baltimore) and Washington. A pattern has developed of playing poorly on the road against decent teams. A convincing road victory in front of a national primetime audience this Saturday night would be good preparation for the more difficult road games coming up in November against Pittsburgh and Stanford.

I know what you're thinking: why no key question about our defense? The Irish defense has been terrible, no doubt. But the unit should improve after getting exposed early in the season. Expect a bend but not break defense than will start to limit most opponents to scores in the 20s while the offense keeps scoring near the 30s.

We'll learn a little bit about the Irish on Saturday night when we face an overmatched Purdue team on the road. Winning a night game on the road in the first game without our best WR won't be easy (that's why Vegas has the line currently as Irish favored by only 8.5 points). Purdue's not to be mistaken for a good team, however - but a decisive victory with a solid offensive performance would be a great start to answering both of these questions.

Michigan St. Preview: Flags of our Rivals

The Irish attempt to pull themselves off the mat this Saturday at 230pm central time against Michigan St. in Notre Dame Stadium (NBC). Michigan St has won 6 straight in Notre Dame Stadium, dating back to the Clinton administration (1993). Michigan St planted their flag on Notre Dame's turf back in 2005, Charlie's first season, after a 44-41 OT victory (shown above).

The Irish are 10.5 pt favorites, but both 1-1 squads are in dire need of a win to get back on track. That said, the Irish have way more to lose this game than the Spartans. Here are some things to watch for:

When Michigan St has the ball . . . 

• Can they run the ball like the Michigan St teams of old? Since the Irish are giving up 5.0YPC this season, its assumed that Michigan St will have some success on the ground. Caulton Ray and Larry Caper are inexperienced Spartan RBs, but still averaging 4YPC together thru 2 games. Despite the decent YPC, MSU is only gaining 138 yards per game - much lower than prior years. And those stats were against Montana St. and Central Michigan. The MSU running game is a very physical and straight ahead brand - unlike the spread and misdirection the Irish faced in the first two weeks. Despite their slow start running the ball, I expect MSU to have some success running against the Irish. 
• Will Michigan St have continued success passing the ball? Averaging 267 passing yards per game is very high for an MSU squad. Using two very inexperienced QBs (Nichol and Cousins), the Spartans have had a much more aerial attack than in years past. The Irish strength on defense is the pass defense, which prompts the question - will the Spartans attack through the air - their strength thus far - or attack the Irish weakness of run defense? I expect Michigan St to try to win the game thru the air, in a little bit of game theory - the Spartans will expect the Irish to over focus on run defense, while underestimating the Spartan passing attack. Forcing some turnovers from these inexperienced QBs (Cousins will be making his first ever road start) will be a key to the game for the Irish.
• Can the Irish rush the passer?  The Michigan St pass protection has been stellar (not perfect like the Irish protection has been, however), allowing only a half a sack thru 2 games. If Michigan St is going to pass the ball against a Jon Tenuta defense, pressure will have to be handled by the Spartan offensive line. Any QB with time can make passes, while any QB on his back can't. Pressure will be a major factor in this game for both defenses. Expect even more pressure by Tenuta if the Irish are having success against the run - and especially since Cousins is not fleet of foot like Forcier or Kaepernick. 

When the Irish have the ball . . .

• Can the Irish run the ball enough to balance the Spartan defense?  Notre Dame is running the ball better than at any point of the Charlie Weis era. But Michigan State's front 7 defenders are better than Michigan and Nevada's - significantly so in my opinion. Michigan State's super middle linebacker Greg Jones is a mean mo-fo, average 14(!) tackles per game. He will be involved in the tackle somehow on every single running play, you can count on it. Likely those yards after contact that Armando Allen has been getting are going to be limited against the Spartans. A 150 yard rushing game for the Irish would be a fantastic accomplishment, especially considering the rush game stat line from the game against the Spartans last year: 16 yards rushing, on 22 attempts. YIKES
• Can the Irish exploit the Spartan secondary?  Central Michigan passed with success on the Spartans, hurting the confidence of the MSU defensive backs according to their very own defensive backs coach. As seen the first two games, defending the Irish passing attack is not for the meek. Man on man without deep zone coverage or pressure, the Irish passing attack will succeed. D'Antonio knows this, and will counter appropriately with a package of selective and conservative blitzes, as well as plenty of 2 deep safety coverage.  I get a feeling D'Antonio is expecting Clausen to feel the weight of the world and get impatient, forcing a few deep throws into coverage. Whether Jimmy will be able to take the short check downs given to him will be a major factor in the game. 
• Will Spartan defenders be able to pressure Clausen? D'Antonio knows that Clausen and our wideouts will pick his secondary apart if given time, especially against straight up man for man coverage. As stated above, I think we will see a lot of conservative and deep pass coverage, to avoid the big play by the Irish. While this is a decent idea, there is just no way the Spartans can do that all day without Clausen adjusting. Expect a good number of 3rd down and otherwise very conservative blitzes enough to keep the Irish offensive line on its toes. Michigan State's defensive line will be a handful, so I expect a tired offensive line missing a linebacker or two and allowing a sack for the first time all season. What will the Irish counter this pressure with? The Charlie Weis special, screen passes. Lets just hope Charlie makes good guesses as to when to throw the screen and run max protect plays. Vatican Smoke recommends a slightly different approach - 5 wide, no huddle. Hit TE Rudolph all day. If you're reading this Charlie, you're welcome for the free advice. 

Since Lou Holtz has left, Michigan State has had our number. No matter how easy it was supposed to be against the Spartans, Michigan State always bring tough offensive and defensive lines that bust their a$$ and make the Irish work for every single yard. This game will not be for the timid, undisciplined, or immature. Where last year's team may have wilted, I expect the more experienced Irish squad to grind early, but win convincingly, largely due to a lack of offense and some turnovers on the Spartans. If the Irish give up a sack or two, and only rush for 100 yards, do not consider this a step back - but rather a step forward. Michigan State is a quality team that will be in the conversation for the Big 10 elite, despite last week's setback (first upset of the D'Antonio era). 

Game Prediction:

Notre Dame  31   Michigan St  17

(season record straight up 1-1, against the spread, 0-2)

Have a great weekend Irish fans  -  GO IRISH!!

Moving Forward

Before we completely move on from the Michigan loss, here are a few stat nuggets and notes related to both the game and the season thus far:

• Michael Floyd will play this weekend after receiving 15 stitches due to a cut on his knee suffered with 5 minutes to go in the game.
• Weis is sending in a good number of plays to the Big 10 officials for review. Numerous bad calls happen in a normal game, but this game had more than usual. Referees are not perfect, but 2 or 3 of the calls would have been enough of an edge to win the game. For instance, the lack of a pass interference on the "pre-catch wrestling" with Golden Tate at 2 minutes to go (shown above) is one that certainly would have closed the game out.
• While Michigan out rushed the Irish 190 yards to 154, both teams averaged similar YPC - ND 5.1, Mich 5.0. Don't let the loss blur our fantastic success running the ball. The Irish rushed for just 3.3YPC in 2008, and much less in the 2007 beatdown.
• The Irish passed for 336 yards vs Michigan's 240. Total offensive yards favored the Irish, 490-430.
• Time of possession, turnovers, missed field goals, 3rd down conversion, and even 4th down conversion were all pretty much the same for both teams. What gives? Two things:
• A 94 yard kickoff return for a TD by Michigan's Darryl Stonum, against the 2008 #1 KO coverage unit in the country. The breakdown not only cost the Irish possibly the game, but also a chance to finish in the top 10 in KO coverage yet again.
• Having the ball last - If the Irish get the ball back with 1 minute and a timeout or two, or simply catch the wideopen and poorly run hitch route on 3rd down with 2 minutes to go, the game could have been ended differently.
• Notre Dame is one of only 7 teams in the country that have 0 sacks thru 2 games. Great offensive line protection has been a huge factor in Jimmy's amazing start
• ND is average 500 yards of total offense per game - putting them at #17 in the country. And certainly the teams ahead of us have played schools not quite as solid as Nevada and Michigan.
• The scariest stat so far season to date . . . rushing yards given up. Notre Dame is 88th in the country in rush defense, giving up 5.1ypc thru 2 games.
• Did Michigan get a little rough after plays were over? Watch the bottom of the screen in this clip, and judge for yourself.

The Irish program moves forward from a difficult loss against Michigan by facing Michigan State this weekend in Notre Dame Stadium - the same Michigan State team that the following can be attributed to:

• Has won 6 straight games in Notre Dame stadium (last win for the Irish vs MSU at home - 1993!)
• Upset by Central Michigan at home last week, 29-27, on a last second field goal
• Predicted by many in the pre-season (including VaticanSmoke) to defeat Notre Dame

The keys to this game are the non-statistical hurdles that both teams must face. Which team can respond coming off a crushing loss? Can Notre Dame win with the added pressure of the Michigan loss? Can the Irish final break the spell of the Spartans in Notre Dame stadium? On the surface it looks as if Michigan State has a strong line on both sides of the ball, and strong linebackers - but that's it. Notre Dame should be able to pass the ball, largely because no one has come close to stopping them yet. The Irish are going to have issues defending against the Michigan State run game, however. A more conventional attack with lack of a proficient passing game should make this task easier for the Irish than the Spartans' attempt to stop the Irish aerial attack.

Needless to say, this is a critical game for the program and especially for Weis. If the Irish are going to have a successful season, it starts with a good ole fashioned beat down on Saturday. Mark D'Antonio is not a coach that gets beat down often, given his conservative run the ball and stop the run approach. Many Irish fans are eager to see how this team responds to the often cliched "adversity". Game preview on Friday.

Tough Times Don't Last . . .

Tough loss for the Irish against the rival Wolverines on Saturday,
falling 38-34 on a td in the final 10 seconds. More details on the
stats will come later. The main question that lingers is "If not on
Saturday, then when?". The Irish continue to make strides on both
sides of the ball and in the talent department. Jimmy Clausen is the
best Irish qb I've ever seen - right now. Our WRs are uncoverable. And
we are finally starting to run the ball.

Many will criticize late game play calling, a missed field goal, very
suspect officiating, or the inability to catch a pass for a game
sealing first down. Those are all valid criticisms. Just remember when
perfection is required from the officials and our offense to win -
something is wrong. That something is our defensive line - a predicted
weakness that is far worse than initially feared.

The Irish were never a great team - just a good one. They still are,
and a BCS bowl is still there for the taking. Will they bounce back?
We'll see this weekend, when the Michigan St Spartans roll into South
Bend to try and erase their upset blues, while attempting to continue
the amazing 6 game winning streak in Notre Dame stadium.

The Irish should win all remaining games, except the USC game, by 14
points at least. And they should be within 7 pts of USC. That gives us
10-2 and a Sugar or Fiesta bowl birth. There - I feel better for
typing out this real and demanding request. Make no mistake though -
its a doable one. This Irish offense is better than any of us imagined
and USC is the only game the Irish won't be favored to win by a
touchdown or more. It starts on Saturday against the Spartans.

Michigan Game Preview

Hail! to the victors valiant

Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes

Hail! Hail! to Michigan

The leaders and best!

Hail! to the victors valiant

Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes

Hail! Hail! to Michigan,

The champions of the West!

As a blogger, I try to be impartial, objective, and to remove bias from my posts. Last week I picked Notre Dame to win but to struggle. Nevada was the perfect school to prepare a well thought out preview for - I had no feeling about the school previously, with minimal prior knowledge to skew my preparation. The same cannot be said for the week 2 opponent of the Irish - the University of Michigan Wolverines.

So lets go ahead and get this out of the way: I hate Michigan. Reading the chorus to their fight song makes me hate them even more. Seriously - has there ever been a more desperate and screaming attempt to say "We are better than you! We are the best! Look at us!"?

Every team has a rival that their fans "hate". In the sports world, "hate" is a much less powerful word than in real life. Of course I respect the University of Michigan (mostly), and definitely their tradition, fan base, stadium, and players. The parallel would not apply if I "hated" another human being. When it comes to "hate" for Notre Dame fans, only two schools really come to mind: Michigan and USC.

While USC has been our rival for a longer period of time, the Michigan rivalry has been more heated. Numerous times during the years, Michigan tried to stop the series of games between the teams, not playing the Irish for 36 years after being beaten by Notre Dame in 1943. "They need us more than we need them", the great Michigan coach Bo Schembechler said. When Knute Rockne and the Irish tried to join the Big 10 conference during the 20s, a blackball effect was orchestrated by Michigan AD Fielding Yost. Known as being anti-immigrant and anti-Catholic - both of which were applicable to Notre Dame - Yost even threatened other Big 10 teams that would play the Irish. Traveling outside the midwest was the answer for Notre Dame - and the end result is a national following, filled with inter-sectional rivalries like USC, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Navy, Army, etc. Please keep this history in mind as you root for the Irish on Saturday.

Now for a little bit of a game preview via keys to the game for the Irish.

When Michigan has the ball . . .

• Confusing the youngsters - Michigan will be starting a true freshman QB (Tate Forcier), and playing another in the speed Denard Robinson. Forcier is a great balance of throw and run for the spread offense, whereas Denard is more of a pure running threat. The Irish will give up some runs, but we must continue to blitz and throw confusing coverages in the hopes of a big play.
• Limit big plays on the ground - I feel confident about our ability to defend the deep pass against a younger QB and with our experienced/capable secondary. Nevada was able to get too many 9 to 10 yard runs, and we must find a way to slow down this attack from Michigan. Will be THE key to the game.

When the Irish have the ball . . .

• Get Michigan to respect the pass - Typically coaches establish the run, then pass. Today's college game requires an opposite approach, in my opinion. Until we pass Michigan out of their aggressive and capable front 7, the Irish will struggle to run the ball. Running the ball for the Irish to the tune of 150 yards will be essential in winning this game, whether is for big short yardage plays or just running some clock.
• Hit the Tight End - Kyle Rudolph is going to have some opportunities to make plays. Last year, the Irish threw up top on Michigan quite a bit with Golden Tate. I expect Michigan to prepare for the deep pass, and stop the run. That leaves Rudolph in 1 on 1 coverage against a linebacker or safety. We MUST exploit this expected tactic.

All hatred for the Wolverines aside, this will be a great football game. The underdog does incredibly well, so I would rather the Wolverines be slight favorites. The Irish must start winning and dominating some games like this - on the road, against a quality opponent - if we are going to be a BCS caliber program. Time to put up, or shut up. And I think they do.

Vatican Smoke prediction:

Notre Dame 31 Michigan 24

Jimmy Clausen throws for 3 TDs, including his first INT of the season. The Irish get an interception returned for a TD on an errant pass from Forcier for the 4 TD, and a late FG to comfort the masses by Freshman Nick Tausch.

Have a great weekend, and GO IRISH!

Nevada Post Game

A very good start for the Irish felt more like a relief than anything else. The talent is there but getting off to a good start often releases a lot of built up pressure on the program - letting things flow a bit easier. A few fast facts about the game:

• The Irish dismantled the Nevada Wolfpack 35-0, marking the first shutout of the Charlie Weis era. Last shutout was 7 years ago in 2002 against Rutgers, my last home game as a senior.
• Jimmy Clausen finished 15 for 18 with 2 of the 3 incompletions being "drops". Combined with 4 TDs, Jimmy had a near perfect day.
• The Irish rushed for 178 yards, but more importantly, 4.3 YPC on 41 attempts
• The Irish allowed ZERO sacks in the game (kudos to the offensive line)
• Nevada rushed for 153 yards on 29 carries, good for a not so hot for the Irish 5.3 YPC
• Nevada was 2 for 11 converting 3rd downs. The Irish finished 6 for 12 on 3rd down conversions
• Notre Dame finished with 2 sacks of Nevada and 4 tackles for a loss.
• 20 (!) new Irish players saw gametime for the first time in their freshman or redshirt freshman seasons

As for my predicted score of 38-27, close for the Irish but not for the Wolfpack. Kyle Rudolph's opening TD was correctly predicted, and was in the ballpark predicting Jimmy's day. You can check out my game prediction here if you like.

A few post game tidbits for you:

• The "Real" Score - The Irish deserved to win by at least 3 to 4 touchdowns, but not 35-0. That said, Nevada could move the ball between the 20s but not inside. There is something about this defense that turns on when a team is closing in on the end zone - even last year it was apparent. Whether is a big 2nd down sack forcing a 3rd and long, or a big tackle on 3rd down, the Irish defense makes the most of every opportunity they achive (or is given to them).
• Depth Building - To play as many youngsters as we did was also a huge plus. Good programs develop depth by playing their backups early and often - which the Irish were able to do on Saturday. Even backup QB Dayne Crist got in the game for a good period of time. After Sam Bradford went down, every team knows that a backup QB is just one play away from being thrust into the spotlight. 3 Offensive lineman on the 2nd team got reps with the first team during the 1st half, another huge bonus.
• Offensive Formations Galore - Charlie's mantra is that he uses multiple formations to run common plays - confusing the defense and gaining synergies on offense. Multiple tight ends is probably Weis's best formation - and one that is seen less in college than in the pros. The Irish were able to run about 40% of the plays with 2 tight ends, as opposed to the prior 2 years where we lacked the depth to run multiple tight end formations. Look for the offense to excel simply because of the formations now available to Weis due to our TE depth.
• Freshman Impact - Manti Te'o (pictured above) is going to be a beast at linebacker. On his first play he blitzed, was out of the play, but then chased the play down from the backside to hit Kaepernick for a huge tackle. He had two other tackles/hits in the second half that were 2 of the more powerful tackles I have seen by an Irish defender in years (see above). His playing time will gradually increase as he gains a better grasp of the defense, in line with our game plan. Backup RB and kick returner Theo Reddick did a nice job last week as well. The scatback has some explosiveness and should be fun to watch.

NBC broadcast is still a bit cheesy, but much less so than year's past. Pat Hayden is fine, and Tom Hammond is pretty bland and painful to listen to. The computer graphics and animations, along with the music, are much better this year.

Below is a good summary of all the key plays in the game - a good, efficient watch. Watch it, then forget about it. One of our most hated rivals awaits us at week's end. Check back later this week for some good Michigan vs Notre Dame info. Early line in Vegas - Irish favored by 3.5.

Nevada Game Preview

The Irish take on Nevada on Saturday to open up the 2009 season. If you haven't been following the blog during August, check out the 10 positional previews here, as well as the season prediction post here. The positional previews are great for an overview of each position, incorporating tidbits from fall camp. Please check them out and let us know whether you enjoyed them.

Nevada is not the pushover that they may sound to the casual college football fan. But make no doubt about it - the Irish are the more talented team and should win this game soundly. Unfortunately, the recent Irish squads lose too many games they shouldn't, and Nevada has many of the components needed to pull off a shocker this weekend. The components that could help them win are . . .

• Experienced Quarterback - Colin Kaepernick is one of only 5 players in college football history to rush for a 1000 yards and throw for 2000 in a single season. He is also one of only a few to throw AND rush for 20TDs in a season. The redshirt junior is 6' 6" and 220 pounds of Quarterbacking efficiency. Many compare him to Vince Young, with a better arm (drafted in the MLB draft this past year as a pitcher, did not sign). The Irish are going to have to respect his rushing ability, while also defending against his improving passing skills. From a preseason perspective, Kaepernick is the most feared QB on the Irish schedule - easily.
• Different yet Disciplined Offense - Nevada runs an offense called the "Pistol". The QB lines up in a shotgun formation - one yard closer to the center than a normal shotgun. The additional space allows a running back to line up behind the QB, not alongside. The ball is snapped to the QB, giving the benefits of a shotgun while also maintaining a downhill rushing approach with the RB in the backfield. The playcalling blends an I-Form straight ahead rushing attack with elements of the spread and the option. A querky offense that can confuse a more talented team and give yourself a chance to win.
• Experienced Coach - Chris Ault has now coached Nevada 23 seasons over 33 years during 3 different stints. Ault was inducted to the college football hall of fame in 2001, and has shown an ability to adapt his approach to give Nevada the best chance to win games against bigger more powerful programs. His teams have finished the last 5 seasons with a winning record and a bowl game appearance. A victory like this would easily be the "biggest victory in Nevada history and of Ault's career", according to a Reno journalist I read earlier this week (sorry no link).
• Pass Rush - From Tim Prister on UND.com: "Nevada boasts the most productive defensive end tandem returning to the college game in '09. Juniors Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch combined for 21.5 sacks and 36 tackles for lost yardage - as sophomores! Basped - 6-foot-6, 240 pounds - has the 'measurables' that NFL scouts crave. Moch - 6-foot-1, 245 pounds - led the Wolf Pack in sacks last year with 11.5 (to Basped's 10)." Yikes.

Notre Dame has some advantages as well:

• Passing Attack - The Irish return their top 3 passing targets from last year, as well as a junior QB looking to finally reach his potential. The offensive line is back en masse and ready to apply new coach Frank Verducci's techniques. There is no reason the Irish should not have passing success against the team with the dead last ranked pass defense in the country in 2008. 300 yards passing should be almost guaranteed. 380 yards for Clausen through the air is the prediction.
• Time to Prepare for "the Pistol" - "The Pistol" is an offense, not a shaggy haired legendary basketball player. Described above, this complicated offense takes time to prepare for. Having 2 weeks of nothing but Nevada game prep is definitely an advantage to our defense. Certainly the Irish were not be able to replicate the efficiency and speed of the Nevada offense in practice, but the more practice reps against a funky formation, the better.
• Talented Special Teams - Notre Dame's special teams had an overall banner year last year, despite an inconsistent field goal kicker. Top ranked kickoff coverage in the country, and top 30 in punt defense. Even more young athletes have been added to the mix, including a talented freshman kicker in Nick Tausch (who beat out senior Brandon Walker). Nevada was terrible in 2008 on kickoffs in particular - both returning (101st in the country) and return defense (113th). Punting wasn't much better, covering 62nd best and returning 99th best. Special Teams should be an area where our depth should be a major advantage. Our return units are in the good hands of freshman Theo Riddick (kickoffs) and the electrifying Golden Tate (punts). Look for the Irish to have early success in the kickoff return game, returning the opening kick to near midfield.
• Experienced Secondary - The Irish have 4 returning starters in the secondary - easily the deepest unit on the team (Free Safety Harrison Smith started at outside linebacker last year, replacing David Bruton who departed to the NFL). Currently the #3 CB on the roster in Darrin Walls was the best cover corner on the team in 2007. Check out the season previews for our safety and cornerback positions. Our defensive plan is likely to let our cornerbacks cover Nevada WRs 1 on 1, allowing the safeties to creep up and help the front slow down Kaepernick. We have the talent to do match up with their wideouts.

In the season prediction post, I predicted Notre Dame would win this game. I think the game is going to be exciting, yet not a blowout. Nevada will remain within striking distance, but the Irish will finish the game winning by a comfortable enough margin. Notre Dame's athleticism limits big plays from Nevada, while the Wolfpack offense does have success moving the ball. Some big red zone stops and a few turnovers limit the Wolfpack points, while the Irish return game sets the Irish offense up with great field position.

Irish 38 Nevada 27

A few more miscellaneous predictions: Jimmy Clausen throws 3 TDs, no interceptions, with 380 yards passing. Armando Allen has 1 TD rushing and 1 receiving, while Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph each contribute with a pass catch for a TD. The opening toss is won by Notre Dame, and we elect to receive. Theo Riddick, true freshman, returns the opening kick to the 50 yard line. 3 plays later, Kyle Rudolph catches a pass down the seam for the first Irish TD of the 2009 season.

Since the spread is -14pts (Irish favored), I am predicting the Irish will not cover. My other college football picks of the week are Tulsa -13.5 tonight vs Tulane, Wake Forest -2 vs Baylor, and Memphis +17 vs Ole Miss. Have a great Labor Day weekend and GO IRISH!

2009 Season Prediction

The season is upon us, and most college football fans can barely contain the excitement. I cannot remember an opening weekend with so many interesting games: Oklahoma St hosts Georgia, Alabama vs Virginia Tech, BYU vs Oklahoma, Oregon vs Boise St (tonight). And then of course Notre Dame opening up with Nevada (2:30pm central, NBC), with the Irish being two touchdown favorites over the #3 ranked rushing team in the country of 2008.

Its prediction time - with this year's theme being the same here at Vatican Smoke as it is for Charlie Weis and the Irish - "Don't Tell Me, Show Me". While Coach Weis won't predict anything, here is our first prediction: 2009 will be an memorable season for the Irish football team and fans. Either we watch our program turn the corner and begin a run of sustained success, or we get saddled with another rebuilding project and a new coach. It feels as though either of these outcomes are more likely than a run of the mill 7-5 season.

Now onto the specifc wins and losses. Each week, we will have an opponent specific preview with more details. Here is a quick rundown of how we here at Vatican Smoke think the season will play out:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - W
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - L
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L
• Oct 26th - Boston College - W
• Oct 31st - Wash St (in San Antonio) - W
• Nov 7th - Navy - W
• Nov 14th - @ Pittsburgh - W
• Nov 21st - UConn - W
• Nov 28th - @ Stanford - L

• Overall Record: 9-3
• Bowl Game: Gator Bowl
• Opponent: North Carolina
• Bowl Game Score: ND 34 UNC 27
• Final Record: 10-3
• Final Ranking: #12 in the AP, #13 in the Coaches Poll

• Offensive MVP: Jimmy Clausen (Jr QB)
• Defensive MVP: Brian Smith (Jr Weakside LB)
• Best Freshman: Theo Reddick (Freshman return man & scatback RB)
• Special Teams MVP: Nick Tausch (Freshman Kicker)
• Most Improved: Armando Allen (Jr RB)

10-3 with a bowl victory in a New Years Day bowl. A solid season, but short of the BCS. Inconsistency will be the reason the Irish fall in very close losses to Michigan St, USC, and Stanford on a last second field goal. However, the Irish will greatly improve in turnovers and rushing offense. And finally the Irish will learn to beat down weaker competition. Only a few costly INTs by Jimmy Clausen, as well as the defense being unable to seal the deal, will hurt the Irish in their 3 close losses. USC loses the total offense battle against the Irish, but Pete Carroll's defense finds a way to make a big play in the 4th quarter. Michigan St beats up on the turnover prone Irish early, withstanding a solid comeback bid that falls short. Stanford outplays the complacent Irish in the 4th quarter, winning by a last second field goal. Sentiment heading into the offseason will be saved by the bowl game performance against a solid North Carolina squad. The "hot seat" talk about Charlie's job slows down to a drip, and recruiting gains even more momentum.

One last tidbit about the season that I found interesting - The great Notre Dame blog, Blue Gray Sky, last year compared Weis's 4 year coaching career to the standard 5 act dramatic structure of a play. Acts 1 and 2 were the "exposition" and "rising action of the hero" (2005-2006). Act 3 was the climax or turning point (2007). Act 4 was the "falling action" (2008). What will Act 5 be? Catastrophy (Tragedy) or Resolution (Comedy)? Enjoy Act 5, and check back on Friday for the Nevada game preview.

Positional Previews #1 - Quarterbacks

We are finishing the Notre Dame Football 2009 Positional Previews by counting down to the top ranked of the 10 positions. You can read about the 10 positions and an explanation of the rankings here. In short, #10 is the position that I am least confident/most worried about heading into the season, while #1 is the position I am most confident/least worried about. Ability, depth, and intangibles all factor in.

Today we hit up #1 - Quarterbacks

Depth Chart - The depth chart should remain unchanged for the 2009 and 2010 seasons - barring something extraordinary happening. This is the healthiest depth chart at Quarterback arguably since Ara Parseghian roamed the sidelines in the late 70s.

Talent - Plenty of it. Not many programs can boast two 5 star recruits at QB like the Irish can with Clausen and Crist (Clausen was ranked #1 QB and #1 overall recruit in the country in 2007, while Crist was ranked #2 QB and #25 overall recruit in the country in 2008). Evan Sharpley was a 3 star recruit in 2005 class, the first class after Weis was hired. Evan was a major player as a first basemen on the baseball team at ND, and was drafted in the 50th round by the Seattle Mariners in June. He had a great season this past summer in rookie ball, batting .333 with 7 HR/ 29 RBIs in 37 games (picture in Irish baseball uniform below). This spring Sharpley's baseball career will continue, but for now, he is focused on tutoring ND's backup Dayne Crist and running ND's scout team offense.

Changes - Crist (pictured in the spring game above) moving ahead of Sharpley is the biggest change at the position. Crist red shirted last season, so his 4 year eligibility clock starts this year. Look for Crist to get in some games this year to develop him for the future. Hopefully games like Washington, Washington St, and a few others, Crist can play the 4th quarter and get some live experience. Clausen is going to have to be more consistent this season than last. While he flirted with perfection against Hawaii and a first half against North Carolina, the Boston College and USC games were as bad offensively as any games in the Weis era. Hopefully Clausen's third season will be a huge leap forward in his decision making and consistency.

Depth - The depth chart and the talent section above speak to this issue. No longer is depth or talent an excuse at the quarterback position. Certainly Crist has zero game experience - and thats a huge factor should he be called upon due to injury. That's why having Sharpley is so important, a 5th year senior with 19 games worth of experience (2 starts) under his belt. In college football, QBs are often only as good as the talent around them. Sharpley and Crist should have a good pass blocking offensive line, and 2 major playmakers at WR in Floyd and Tate. Certainly there will be a dropoff if Clausen is hurt - but the Irish should be in much better shape than most teams who would lose their starter. A starting QB injury could mean death for some schools' seasons (Ole Miss comes to mind - what if Jevan Snead gets hurt?) The Irish can still contend with their 2nd or 3rd string QB this season, a major factor in ranking the QB position so high.

Goals - Here is a comparison between Jimmy Clausen and his predecessor, Brady Quinn. Brady was the much more likable quarterback. But don't let affinity for Brady or your scorn for Jimmy form your conclusion on the brash Californian - compare the stats, starting with their sophomore seasons:

• Brady Quinn 2004 (Soph) - 12 starts, 2586 yards, 54.1% completion, 17 TDs / 10 INTs, 125.9 passer rating
• Jimmy Clausen 2008 (Soph) - 13 starts, 3172 yards, 60.9% completion, 25 TDs / 17 INTs, 132.5 passer rating
• Brady Quinn 2005 (JR) - 13 starts, 3919 yards, 64.9% completion, 32 TDs / 7 INTs, 158.4 passer rating

Brady Quinn made a huge leap from his sophomore season to his junior season. Certainly his leap had to do with the coaching of Weis, in his first season in 2005 with the Irish. Experience at the offensive positions coincided with Brady's resurgence, particularly along the offensive line. The 2009 Irish offense is looking very similar to that 2005 offense entering the season - lots of returning starters and plenty of talent. By reading the other position previews, you know this. Can Jimmy make the same leap during his Jr year? Lets cut to the chase and give Jimmy some goals for this season:

• Jimmy Clausen 2009 (JR) - 13 starts, 3800 yards, 62.0% completion, 35 TDs / 10 INTs, 145.8 passer rating

These are reachable goals - make no doubt about it. Yes, Jimmy would have to throw 10 more TDs while throwing 7 less INTs, which is the biggest reach of these stats. However, 3800 yards and 62% completion are very reasonable given the schedule and Clausen's 2008 stats. If Jimmy produces at this clip, New Years Day bowl it is for the Irish.

Final Analysis - "We ready." Our QB is at the turning point of his career, with some talented weapons and experience at his disposal. The schedule is favorable, and the time is now. Unlike the BCS runs of 2001, 2005, and 2006, the Irish look ready to sustain the BCS-level success for a few years - not just a short lived burst. However, the future only happens if things get started on the right foot during the most critical stretch of the Irish schedule - the opening 3 games in September (Nevada, @Michigan, Michigan St). If things start out poorly, the pressure consumes the Irish and Charlie Weis gets fired, further delaying the rebuilding. In the Spring, Jimmy told the Sporting News, "Coach Weis won't get fired because of me." I believe him.