Cardinal Sin

Cheesy headline? Maybe. Awful final innings the last two nights? Absolutely.

The Cardinals rode high out of the all star breaking, going 4-0 against the Padres, gaining 2 games on the Cubs to sit 2 back in the NL Central. The Brewers came to town on Monday for a 4 game series, starting 3 back of the Cubs (1 behind the Cards).

The past two nights, the Cardinals let a game slip away that falls into the "devastating losses" category, so hard to be applied to regular season baseball games. The Cardinals led 3-1 with 2 outs in the 8th last night, after one of Kyle Lohse's (pictured) most dominating pitching performances of the year. On Monday night, we were tied at the end of 9 innings 3-3, with plenty of chances to win. We lost both games 4-3 on Bill Hall solo home runs in the top of the 10th and 9th innings, respectively.



The Brewers have a lot of momentum, recently acquiring CC Sabathia, while already being one of the hottest teams in baseball. A big series by the Cardinals would have stamped on that flame a bit, putting them in their rightful place. Now, the Brewers look extremely confident, ready to surge past the Cardinals. It must be nice to be 2-0 in the this series against the Cards, with Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia throwing the final two games tonight and Thursday.

Cards need to win both, and absolutely must win 1 of these 2. Luckily the Cubs are sliding as well, losing 5 out of their last 6. The Cubs will definitely have a tougher second half, since they will be on the road more often than the first half, and experiencing some injuries (Kerry Wood). With the dynamics of this division being a 3 team race, you hope that your team wins, while the other 2 teams beat each other evenly. Right now the Brewers are surging at the Cardinals expense, while the Cubs are losing at the same time. Tonight, the Cards need to slow down the Brew Crew, as well as their current radio broadcaster, Harry Doyle . . .errrr, I mean Bob Uecker.

"Ohhhh Shit . . . if that's not Shaquelle O'Neal in left, that baby's outta here."

"Wild Thing, you make my Butt Sting."

"I'm the only winner on the team, the rest of them are losers - either by choice, or by birth."

ND Football '08 Prediction Quiz

This is not my official prediction for the 2008 Fighting Irish. That prediction comes after I drink much more August Kool-Aid, probably in about a month.

The gamblers, prognosticators, sportswriters, and other pundits are beginning to make their predictions for the season though. Here are a few notables:

• Charlie Weis predicts the Irish to win "9 to12 games". Yikes coach, I like the optimism, but lets not get cocky. Interesting article about Weis in the link right above, which talks about his prediction, the state of the program, etc, from a Michigan perspective as the article is from the Detroit Free Press. Coach Weis has made this prediction privately, supposedly.


• Columbia, Missouri Tribune predicts 8-4 season and a top 25 ranking. Not sure that these guys are experts, but their reasoning is incredibly simple and logical - the Irish schedule is 4 games easier than last year, and 17 starters return. Another short, interesting read.


• Point Spreads.com predicts the Irish to go 7-5. I think this is a fair prediction.


• Vegas is pegging the Over/Under on wins for the Irish at 7 wins. For Vegas novices, the over/under is the amount of wins that will ideally get 50% of people betting on the "over" and 50% on the "under". Vegas is somewhat 70% of the time, all of the time.

What to make of all of this garbage? Most people on the internet make predictions about Notre Dame just to get traffic, so you can't trust any of this stuff. Since I'm a logical guy, I am going to break it down for you with a simple quiz that will provide you with you're own prediction on the 2008 Fighting Irish win total.

Each question has answers with numbers in ( ). When you pick answer A that says (-2) for instance, the addition or subtraction will start from the 2007 win total of 3. So if you answer the questions and your final net number value is +4, then you are predicting the Irish will win 7 games. Give it an honest try, and see where you come out.

Question #1

Could this year's Irish team beat Duke, Stanford, and UCLA teams of last year?

A) YES (+0)

B) 2 out of 3 (-1)

C ) 1 out of 3 (-2)

D) 0 out of 3 (-3)

Question #2

The Irish gave up a record 58 sacks in 2008, giving up 56 combined in 2005-06. How much improvement will we see in pass protection, measured in sacks?

A) The same (+0)

B) 10 sacks better (+1)

C) 20 sacks better (+2)

D) 30 sacks better (+3)

E) Worse (-1)

F) Much worse (-3)

Question #3

Jimmy Clausen finished with one of the best freshman QB performances ever, throwing more Touchdowns than Interceptions as an injured 18 year old. How much, if any, will he improve?

A) He will play exactly the same (+0)

B) He will get hurt and miss at least 5 games (-1)

C) He will make improvements in learning to throw the ball away (6 sacks by running out of bounds in 2007), as well as getting rid of the ball when the pocket is collapsing, but his completion %s and TD to INT ratio (7/6) will remain the same (+1)

D) Jimmy will make huge strides, not unlike Matthew Stafford during his sophomore year last season. He will become an above average, solid QB that is not in the top 5 but is good enough to have a bright future and make defenses plan for him. (+2)

E) Jimmy will be an All-America team contender, pushing the envelope with a sophomore season akin to Brady Quinn's legendary Junior season in 2005 (+3)

Question #4

The Irish defense finished in the top 40 in the nation in total yards, finishing especially strong against the pass and a bit worse against the rush. Will the defense improve?

A) Yes, the defense will improve, finishing near the top 25 in total defense (+1)

B) Yes, the defense will vastly improve, setting Notre Dame records for sacks and QB pressures (+3)

C) Slightly. The defense will be slightly better than last year, finishing about the same in the rankings (+0)

D) Worse. The defense will be substantially worse, not able to stop the run at all due to a thin defensive line (-2)

Last question, Question #5

The Irish special teams challenged the offense for worst unit on the team (we didn't try a 41 yard field goal to beat Navy as time expired!!). Charlie Weis will now be directly overseeing special teams. How much will the Irish improve?

A) About the same, ranked in the bottom quarter of the NCAA (-1)

B) Worse, not able to do anything functional special teams wise (-2)

C) Slightly better; attempt and make a few late game field goals, but still not yet average (+0)

D) An average all across the board special teams performance. Make average amounts of touch backs, field goals, and good punts (+1).

E) Substantially improved; zero touchbacks in 2007 needs improving, and the Irish respond with a good % of those and even make a few 50 yard field goals, block a punt, etc, producing a top 30 in the nation special teams finish (+2)

So after giving the quiz an honest try, without preconceptions, tally up those scores, and add or subtract the number to the win total from 2007, 3.

What did you have? Obviously this poll is accurate, as I have the Irish winning 14 games next season.

Titans Grab Bag

Some Titans' news to catch up on:

• Both LT Michael Roos and RT David Stewart have been locked up to long term deals. Both starters are 25 years old, and obviously entering their primes. Great move by the Titans, to solidify what should be a solid offensive line for years to come.


• The Titans changed their "home" jersey, now a light blue top with light blue pants (2nd picture). The old navy home uniform is pictured above, although typically with white pants. The light blue formerly was the Titans "alternate" uniform, of which the NFL allows each team to have 1. Now that this light blue is the official home attire, the navy colored jerseys will be the alternate, likely used once or twice per year.


• Jevon Kearse (the Freak) got a DUI near Vanderbilt; WR Brandon Jones got arrested for carrying a hand gun through airport security. If things like this don't occasionally happen to your sports team, then the team is probably not very good. I don't condone the behavior, but I'm just not surprised with this stuff in pro sports anymore. These guys will essentially be on probation, and I don't expect anymore trouble from them .


• Workouts appear to be going well, as the team gears up for training camp. Interesting piece in the Tennessean about "kettlebell" workouts, which look to be a lot of fun and very easy . . . Vandenbosch is ridiculous.


• Titans Wide Receivers are looking to make a big splash this season. As I've blogged about before, Jeff Fisher never signs or drafts high profile WRs. He wants a balanced core of WRs able to do damage, but focuses on defense and running game before wideouts. This is a good ESPN article about the WRs, one that has me pretty optimistic.


• The Titans did not get Albert Haynesworth signed to a long term deal. As a "franchised" player, he will make $7.5M next season, and we won't be able to sign him until after next season.

Obviously the Haynesworth news is huge. Our defense last year was great with him, average in the two games without. Haynesworth is easily one of the top 2 DTs in the league, and wants to get paid for it with a long term deal. It appears that the Titans have some concern about his sustainability, as well as work ethic. We need him, but we don't need a lazy guy that deteriorates after he gets signed to a long term deal. I like the fact that we are buying as much time as we can before we lock up a guy that has a spotty past with a lucrative long term deal. My gut tells me he will be great for 2 more years, max, before injuries and a lack of hard work catch up to him permanently. Given that, I like the move to "franchise tag" Haynesworth and wait.

Training camp starts in about 10 days. Will be interesting to see how the offense develops under Mike Heimerdinger. Vince Young needs to step up and be the quarterback I know he can be.

Tenutacious D

The 2007 Irish defense finished 39th in the country in total defense, about 28th against the pass in the nation, and about 55th against the run. This was the best Irish defensive performance since 2003, sadly. The defense gave up fewer big plays that past years, and was generally better than 2006 team, which gave up 40 points 3 times, including a 38 point performance by North Carolina (pre-Butch Davis). Only two teams scored 40 points against the 2007 Irish, ironically both being service academies (Navy & Air Force - both with top 5 running games in the country last season).

Giving up 40 points is hardly the best measure of a defense. Rankings against the pass and against the run can also be misleading, especially when opposing offense preferred and were successful using one attack instead of the other. However, no matter which way you view the numbers, the 2007 defense was clearly improved under first year Defensive Coordinator, Corwin Brown. The 2007 Irish finished better significantly better against the pass, and about the same against the run, while giving up fewer points and fewer 40+ point games.

Now enter new co-Defensive Coordinator, Jon Tenuta. Tenuta had previously been Defensive Coordinator at Georgia Tech for the past 6 years. Much has been written about Tenuta, including a spring post on this blog. During his time in Atlanta, Tech's defense compiled some DECENT stats:

• Top 30 in the Nation in defense - yards allowed, defense - scoring, and sacks for the 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons.


• 2007 Tech Defense led the nation in sacks, averaging 3.5 per game; in addition, the unit finished 4th in the nation in tackles for loss.

These accomplishments at Georgia Tech are extraordinary, given that theTech program did not have elite athletes like the surround SEC or ACC schools may have had. Certainly there was talent at Tech, but that talent is a rung below what the Irish have in the Sophomore and Freshman classes, as well as what's coming into the program.

As if Irish fans need anything else to fire them up, a few quotes from Tenuta surfaced at a charity golf event recently:

Such was the reaction when new Notre Dame assistant head coach for defense Jon
Tenuta told the crowd of local Irish-backers on Friday that, this fall, the
team will "blitz about 80 percent of the time."

(in reference to the '07 Tech defense's success)

"We did it with an attacking, ball-hawking defense that brings it all the
time," said Tenuta, who will share responsibilities with last year's
defensive coordinator, Corwin Brown, a fragile alliance in which who has the
final word is not clear.

"That's the same way we're going to play up here. It's not three
yards and a cloud of dust any more, it's all this spread stuff. We're going to
try and confuse the front five and never let the quarterback set his feet."

Hard not to get excited about that as the season rapidly approaches (6.5 weeks until first college games on August 30th, 7.5 weeks until Irish open against San Diego St on September 6th).

So remember, when at some point this fall or next fall, you begin to hear about the surge in talent at Notre Dame, don't forget the biggest "signing" we had all off-season - Jon Tenuta.

Jack the AD

Notre Dame is set to announce its new Athletic Director later this week, when its expected that 1976 ND Alum John "Jack" Swarbrick will be the man. You can read a nice piece in the Chicago Tribune about Jack, and another piece here on Irish Eyes, both of which gets into a bit of his background. Essentially Jack is a lawyer with a major law firm in Indianapolis, IN, born in Bloomington, Indiana, who has been working in sports in some capacity for 25 years. He graduated from Stanford Law School in 1980, and he's largely responsible for bringing the Super Bowl and other sport events to Indiana.

The Pope will break it down for you with a quick list of his pro's and con's for this hiring:

Pros

• He graduated from ND - this cannot be understated. Weis was an ND grad, as many of us just feel safer with the program or department in the hands of an alum. Instantly most alumni will have a connection with Jack that we did not have with Kevin White.


• He's a smart guy - Stanford Law, on top of the ND degree. Not bad


• Been around sports - Successfully brought the Super Bowl to Indianapolis, has been chairman of the Indiana Sports Corporation, and also represented various parts of US Olympic teams like Gymnastics and US Rowing.


• He's been a finalist for a few Athletic positions - he was a finalist to be chairman of the NCAA back in 2002, losing to Miles Brand, who sucks. His familiarity with the NCAA will certainly be a huge benefit that most other candidates wouldn't have. He was also runner up to be Commissioner of the Big 12. Obviously this guy wants to get into sports administration/leadership.

Cons

• He has never been an Atheltic director - huge hole on his resume. Most ADs at Notre Dame had been ADs at a few stops before ND, just like Kevin White. No substitute for direct experience.


• No direct football experience - He has advised sports programs legally, and organized Indiana to be the host for Olympic qualifying events, the Super Bowl, etc. But at Notre Dame, managing the Football program is the real job of the AD, and he has little direct football experience dealing with the huge issues facing Notre Dame football: scheduling, BCS/Conference affiliation, and coaching.


• He's been a finalist for a few Athletic positions . . . but has never been hired.

My gut is that this is a good hire. Jack has been successful in the business world, not in the world of college athletic administration. Being an AD is just like promoting a product, protecting a client, or being a CEO. And too often the Academic type don't get the "big picture" when making decisions, which a CEO or a high ranking executive has been trained to do. I think based on the limited amount of information I've read about Jack, that he's our guy.

Will be interesting to see the press conference, likely later this week.