Titans: "Ballin"

6 - 0

Yes, its pretty amazing. The Tennessee Titans continued the old school style dominance of its opponents in 2008, steamrolling the hapless Chiefs 34-10. The scoreboard was much closer than the game was.

Here are some stats of two very good rushing performances from this past weekend. One is in college, one is in the NFL. Which one is the Titans, Team A or Team B?

(Team A had 332 yards rushing, 8.3 ypc. Team B had 327 yards rushing, good for 8.8 ypc)

The point is that these stats are indistinguishable, and you cant tell a difference between the two. Team A is the Titans, while Team B is Utah, who racked up these yards this past weekend against Colorado St. Amazing that the Titans were able to rack up ridiculous NCAA type stats against an NFL team.

Without a doubt, the Titans are a good team with Lendale White at Running Back. But once again, Chris Johnson is the spark, the difference maker, that gives the offense its teeth.

Ask any baseball hitter what pitch he can hit the easiest and he will tell you a fastball. Its straight and the velocity provides you with built in power off your bat. But ask any great hitter what the most effective pitch of most great pitchers is, and they will tell you fastball. How can the same pitch be the most effective and the easiest to hit? Hitting a fastball is about a timing and vision. If you know its coming, its just see and put bat head to the ball - all the power is generated for you. But when you get thrown a few slow pitches, your timing and eye level must change in order to hit. Being thrown a 75mph change up along with a 95 mph fastball is incredibly more difficult to hit than the same 95mph fastball being thrown over an over. Chris Johnson is the fastball, Lendale is the changeup. They compliment each other by forcing a defense to change its timing, vision, and physicality to defend the run.

Kudos to the Titans for drafting Chris Johnson - who many, including myself, did not want to draft. We figured we had a running back already. The Titans got a 2 for 1 in drafting Johnson, because they added a running back AND made our current running back more effective.

The Chiefs failed miserably at defending either White or Johnson, who both eclipsed 150 yards rushing. In fact, each had TD runs of over 60 yards, Lendale with an 80 yard run himself. A solid performance by in a typical Jeff Fisher way - run the ball, defend the run, pressure the QB. Passing yardage is a distant priority.

Next week, Monday night affair in Nashville against the Colts. I think that one could get ugly, but I'll make a prediction next week once I calm down.

Titans Update

Yes, this blog gets very Notre Dame heavy during the fall. Work gets busy, and with the Irish dominating my thoughts, its easy for my 2 posts per week to be on Notre Dame football. Neglected only on my blog (and not by me), the Titans impressive start has not been missed. The Tennessee Titans are 5-0 for the first time in franchise history, dating back to when the team was the Houston Oilers. How has this good team from 2007 become a good to great team in 2008? Simple.

• Even better defense   >>  Is that possible? While the Titans are still in the top 5 in the league in defensive scoring, yards allowed, rushing yards, passing yards, and turnovers (same as last year), this year the Titans are getting even more pressure on the QB while maintaining the other aspects of the defense. The Titans 3 sacks per game average is better than the 2.5 sacks per game from last year, and it has not been at the expense of extra defenders via the blitz. I have not seen an update, but through week 4 the Titans were also the 2nd least blitzing defense in the league. Getting to the opponent's quarterback using only the front 4 gives your defense so many more options in defending the pass. Defensive tackles Albert Haynesworth and Tony Brown (from the University of Memphis!, pictured), have commanded extra attention, as have Kyle Vandenbosch and Jevon Kearse at defensive end. Vandenbosch and Haynesworth certainly steal the headlines, but Brown and Kearse are good enough to make teams pay for leaving them alone.
• Chris Johnson   >>   The Titans finished top 5 in rushing last year, but currently sit just outside the top 10 with 120ypg. Lendale runs between the tackles just as before, but now the Titans have a home run threat that forces the defense to pay attention to, in Chris Johnson. Screen passes, swing passes, outside tosses, misdirection tosses, end arounds  -  these are all now major parts of the Titans offense. These plays have been effective at times, ineffective at others, but one thing is for certain  - Chris Johnson gives the Titans quick strike capability unlike they have had in years, and he forces the defense's hand a bit more to the quarterback. No surprise our QB play has improved this year . . .
• Better QB play  >>  Kerry Collins has provided just good enough QB play to keep defenses honest, pickup timely first downs, and protect the football. While the Titans are ranked 16th in the league in interceptions with 5, 2 of those came from Vince Young in the first game. Collins has played 17 quarters of football on only thrown 3 nterceptions, which is plenty good enough to win. I will comment more about Vince Young (my boy) vs Kerry Collins, the injury, the mental illness, etc, when the time is right. But know this - Vince Young will play meaningful snaps at Quarterback for the Titans this season, and the 25 year old's career is far from over.
• Fantastic Offensive Line  >>  The young, very underrated offensive line has only given up 2 sacks all season, tops in the NFL. And that's all with a statue of a quarterback in Kerry Collins, not known for being mobile. 26 year olds Michael Roos and David Stewart have been awesome Tackle signings, both guys signed this past offseason at the end of their rookie deals, locking up the line for years to come. In addition, the Titans have veteran center Kevin Mawae, as well as guard free agent signing from last year, Jake Scott (formerly of the Colts). These guys are steady, and a top 5 unit in the league.

Of course there is the one thing that has been the same with the Tennessee Titans for the past 14 years  -  Jeff Fisher. Coaching has been steady, and the team has been built the way he has wanted - starting from the front back, with top emphasis on the defensive and offensive lines. Defense and running the ball come next, with the passing game and wideouts a lower priority. Fisher believes that if you defend the run, rush the football, and protect the football, passing will come naturally as a by product. He truly is old school, looking to out physical the opponent and will them into doing what he wants  -  trying to pass the ball against us. What a pleasure to have this west coast USC softie turned tough guy as our football coach.

 

With the Chiefs on the road, the Colts at home, and then the Packers at home in the next three weeks, the Titans should certainly win 1 and likely 2 of those 3 games. I don't see any team in the league, in the entire NFL, that I would pick the Titans to lose soundly to. Hopefully they can stay healthy, stay hungry, and stay to the course of Jeff Fisher's gameplan.

Titans Report

A very weird first week for the Titans that includes a big, dominant win as well as a confused quarterback.

• Big Win, Big Defense >> The Tennessee defense was absolutely superb on Sunday. 7 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a forced fumble, all against a good team at avoiding turnovers, the Jaguars. The divisional win, combined with the other two teams in the division (Colts & Texans) both losing, created a near picture perfect first week for the Titans. The defensive line looked unbelievable - as nearly all of that pressure came by the line alone, rarely needing blitzes to get to David Garrard. Another incredible stat from the game was the total rushing yardage - 36 yards - that the Jaguars got on 24 carries. WoW. If healthy, this defense is better than last year's team, which finished ranked #5 in the league. Scary.
• Vince Young's play, not mental state >> Vince Young looked pretty bad against the Jaguars, a very good defensive team that has always given him trouble. The whole issue this week with Vince's leadership and mental health (commented on below) is not a factor in my analysis here - but I think that Vince is never going to be the quarterback that many expect. He will never be a great pocket passer. What he can be is an amazing leader, and someone who's improvisation and speed abilities should be a stable that every defense must prepare for. Vince Young needs more called running plays and rollouts, plays which always seem more natural and easy for him. These plays will establish rhythm, and that's when he will make his big passes, after he has a feel for the game. 5 step drops and standing still will not work for Vince. He is currently injured with a sprained MCL. I say leave him out for as long as he needs to get healthy, then bring him back slowly. Vince is a leader but not someone that the Titans utterly depend on to win (ie, Tom Brady).
• Chris Johnson out of the backfield, WOW >> A fantastic debut for the rookie speedster out of East Carolina. Johnson ran a sub 4.3 40yrd dash and was a surprise 1st round pick of the Titans. Most thought he would be a change of pace back, with the bulk of the carries going to Lendale White. Wrong. Johnson got 19 carries, started the game, and easily was the best thing the Titans had going on offense. The offense really appears to be utilizing and valuing Johnson's potential, and defenses are going to have to adjust. He will either have continued success, or defenses will have to leave something else open for our offense. I expect the Tight Ends to benefit the most by less linebacker attention. And he is on my fantasy team, which rewards heavily for receptions out of the backfield, a CJ specialty. He'll be fun to watch.
• Vince Young Mental Advice >> I love Vince, and think he is a winner. Right now he is just having a hard time not having the immense success he enjoyed at Texas. I fully expect him to come out of his funk, get healthy, and lead this team. I think the Titans have a responsibility to be patient with Vince, as well as give him more chances to make plays. He is not yet and likely will never be a pure pocket passer, so we must get him going early with called run plays and more rollouts. Then Vince's natural instincts will begin flowing, giving him tempo and rhythm to make the passing plays we need. Hang in there Vince, you have a fan here at the Vatican.

Titans at the Bengals this weekend, who played poorly against the Ravens in week 1. Bengals are favored by 1, but we all remember the butt whooping the Bengals put on the Titans last season in Cincinnati in mid season. Certainly it could happen again, but I find it tough to believe the Bengals will score more than the low 20s against our defense. Kerry Collins will have a big day, my prediction:

Titans 31 Bengals 20

Titans Camp

Titans preseason camp begins tomorrow afternoon. Hard to believe football is already here. Hopefully the Titans offense can make strides, with the addition of Mike Heimerdinger (OCoordinator), as well as the improvement of Vince Young.

Many scratched their heads when the Titans drafted Chris Johnson in the first round, the 4.24 speedster out of East Carolina. Came across this video the other on Chris - pretty exciting to see what he can bring to the offense, and especially what he can bring to the return game. Enjoy the video - his highlight clips are pretty amazing.

Titans Grab Bag

Some Titans' news to catch up on:

• Both LT Michael Roos and RT David Stewart have been locked up to long term deals. Both starters are 25 years old, and obviously entering their primes. Great move by the Titans, to solidify what should be a solid offensive line for years to come.


• The Titans changed their "home" jersey, now a light blue top with light blue pants (2nd picture). The old navy home uniform is pictured above, although typically with white pants. The light blue formerly was the Titans "alternate" uniform, of which the NFL allows each team to have 1. Now that this light blue is the official home attire, the navy colored jerseys will be the alternate, likely used once or twice per year.


• Jevon Kearse (the Freak) got a DUI near Vanderbilt; WR Brandon Jones got arrested for carrying a hand gun through airport security. If things like this don't occasionally happen to your sports team, then the team is probably not very good. I don't condone the behavior, but I'm just not surprised with this stuff in pro sports anymore. These guys will essentially be on probation, and I don't expect anymore trouble from them .


• Workouts appear to be going well, as the team gears up for training camp. Interesting piece in the Tennessean about "kettlebell" workouts, which look to be a lot of fun and very easy . . . Vandenbosch is ridiculous.


• Titans Wide Receivers are looking to make a big splash this season. As I've blogged about before, Jeff Fisher never signs or drafts high profile WRs. He wants a balanced core of WRs able to do damage, but focuses on defense and running game before wideouts. This is a good ESPN article about the WRs, one that has me pretty optimistic.


• The Titans did not get Albert Haynesworth signed to a long term deal. As a "franchised" player, he will make $7.5M next season, and we won't be able to sign him until after next season.

Obviously the Haynesworth news is huge. Our defense last year was great with him, average in the two games without. Haynesworth is easily one of the top 2 DTs in the league, and wants to get paid for it with a long term deal. It appears that the Titans have some concern about his sustainability, as well as work ethic. We need him, but we don't need a lazy guy that deteriorates after he gets signed to a long term deal. I like the fact that we are buying as much time as we can before we lock up a guy that has a spotty past with a lucrative long term deal. My gut tells me he will be great for 2 more years, max, before injuries and a lack of hard work catch up to him permanently. Given that, I like the move to "franchise tag" Haynesworth and wait.

Training camp starts in about 10 days. Will be interesting to see how the offense develops under Mike Heimerdinger. Vince Young needs to step up and be the quarterback I know he can be.

Passing Optimism

In yesterday's post about Jeff Fisher's offenses during his Titans tenure, I concluded that Jeff Fisher teams do not need to be anything but average in the passing game to succeed. After finishing 27th in the league in passing offense, many expected the Titans to make a big splash and sign a free agent or draft a WR with a high pick in the draft. The Titans did neither, but definitely have made some changes that will affect the passing game.

1. Mike Heimerdinger - new offensive coordinator. After being the offensive coordinator for the Titans from 2000-2004, Mike left to take the same role with the New York Jets in 2005, joining a sinking ship in Herman Edwards last season. For 2006-2007, he was offensive coordinator in Denver with his college roommate Mike Shanahan. When the Titans fired Norm Chow after last season, Heimerdinger was the only candidate they discussed, hiring him within 3 days of Chow's departure. During his first stint as Titans O'Coordinator, the Titans offense never finished below 15th in the league in total points. During this time, Steve McNair went from good to great, eventually claiming MVP of the NFL in 2003. The Titans made the playoffs 3 of the 5 years he was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee. Look for Heimerdinger to use Vince Young's legs more, to use more shotgun sets (all VY did at Texas was shotgun),



2. Wide Receiver personnel moves. Yes, there were a few. The Titans signed former Titan Justin McCareins, who played the last 4 seasons for the New York Jets. His best year with the Titans was 2003, when he snagged 47 receptions for 800 yards and 7 TDs in McNair's MVP year. He had a similar year in 2004 with the Jets, but then diminished each of the next 3 seasons before being cut. The Titans signed him to a 1 year deal, and are hoping his experience, particularly as a slot WR, will help VY and the other WRs improve. Additionally, the Titans re-signed their leading wideout from 2007, Justin Gage (pictured). The 6 foot 4 Gage had a big year with 55 catches in 2007, very impressive considering the Titans passing offense was 27th in the league. Gage is a tall guy with very good hands and route running skills, certainly entering his prime. If McCareins can be a steadying go to guy in the slot, allowing Gage to go deep a bit more, the Titans will definitely be tougher to contend with from the WR spot. Here is how the WR depth chart looks right now, best guess:
   












Definitely some optimism right now in Titans mini-camps, as well as on former top 10 pick Mike Williams from USC. Mike Williams has been criticized for a lack of work ethic, as well as being overweight. Supposedly he is "recommitted" and has lost weight - we'll see (he went to USC). If Williams can contribute while the other young WRs keep maturing, we could definitely see a big jump in production even though our WR core is unchanged. Granted, some websites only think the Titans have 1 WR in the top 50 in the NFL (Roydell Williams at #47).









3. Expanded backfield - The Titans now have a stable of Running Backs, each with different skill sets. On first glance, we have the "track stars", rookie Chris Johnson (in 2008 combine ran a 4.24 40 yard dash) and 2nd year player Chris Henry (ran a 4.33 40 yard dash at 2007 combine). Then there's the proverbial "thunder" of Titans leading rusher Lendale White. As a rookie, Chris Henry only played in 7 games, due in part to a 4 game drug suspension for marijuana use. Hopefully reefer boy sees the competition around him and will respond. He has size (6 foot 2, 230 pounds) and speed, and has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield (6 catches in minimal action last year). Expect improvement for the 2nd year player out of Arizona. As for Chris Johnson, first thing you see is speed. Undersized at 5 foot 11, 200 pounds, this cat had quite the productive career at East Carolina. He averaged 37 receptions a year in college, as well as a stout 4.5 yards per carry. He was great in the return game also, versatility that will make him immediately helpful to the Titans. Lendale White had a solid year in 2007, leading the team in carries (304) and yards (1110). ESPN did a top 20 RB ranking for the NFL, and the 23 year old Lendale didn't crack it, despite finishing 12th in the league in rushing in 2007. An improving running game should open up the passing game for Vince and the Titans. Look for Heimerdinger to use more dual back sets, more shotgun looks for Vince, and more short passing plays specifically for running backs.

Of course, the single biggest factor to offensive improvement is Vince Young. Production fell way off for Vince in '07, after a Pro Bowl (alternate) year and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2006. Many say this decline was simply defenses catching up to Vince's game. Certainly that had a part to do with it. Norm Chow, the former offensive coordinator, is known for running his west coast offense without regard to a skilled, mobile QB like Vince. Word is their relationship was not the best, as it was well known that Chow wanted the Titans to draft Matt Leinart instead of Vince Young at #3 in the 2006 NFL draft.

Hopefully the guidance of the experienced and fresh offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, as well as general maturation of Vince Young and the Titans WR/RB core, will all combine to improve the Titans offense. Look for a very solid season by Vince Young and the Titans, particulary in the passing game.

Fisher-Ball

(spreadsheets mentioned in post may not be viewable in email or RSS versions of this post - click the link in those spots, or view the blog site by clicking on the header picture in the email / RSS feed)

Sounds like Vegas money is against the Titans making another playoff appearance in 2008, with odds as the #19 team most likely to win the Super Bowl. Coming off a 10-6 season in 2007, earning a spot as a wild card in the playoffs, many think the young core of the Titans will only improve. Obviously not Vegas.

Most that doubt the Titans point to most glaring weakness on the team - passing offense. Vince Young had a subpar year certainly in 2007. The most surprising thing to many is that the Titans haven't seemed to try and upgrade their passing offense, particularly wide receivers. Despite having a passing offense that finished 27th overall in the league in 2007, the Titans signed no big names at wide out, and did not draft any WRs in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft. Why? Jeff Fisher has shown throughout his career that he doesn't need a top flight passing game or elite WRs to win in the NFL.

Some quick Jeff Fisher facts:

• Born in LA; played college ball for USC (not everyone is perfect)


• Played as a Defensive Back in the NFL, mostly a special teamer


• Background is defense, most of which was learned under Buddy Ryan, whom he played for and coached under


• Named to first head coaching job during the 1994 season, as coach of the Houston Oilers


• Still coach of the same franchise, entering his 14th season (longest tenured coach in NFL, 2nd longest in American pro sports, I believe to only Jerry Sloan of the Utah Jazz [1988])

Jeff Fisher's best teams were defensively strong teams. He's also had some good offensive teams, particularly with Steve McNair at the helm. Here are the seasons that Jeff Fisher's Titans made the playoffs, along with some defensive and passing stats (league ranks based on yards):

The 1999 team went to the Super Bowl, the famous "Music City Miracle" year. The 2000 team was easily the best team Fisher had, tops in the league in defense. Unfortunately that team lost to the Ravens in an ugly playoff game, despite being arguably the league's top team that year. 2002 ended with a lopsided loss in the AFC Championship to the Raiders, and 2003 was a close loss in the divisional round to the Patriots. In 2007, the Chargers sent us packing quickly. So in ranking these teams, I would put them in order of best to worst like this: 2000, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2007.

The common trait on good Jeff Fisher teams is easy to point out - they play defense, and have balance on offense. The passing game doesn't need to be great for Jeff Fisher to have a playoff team. Fisher teams have finished in the top 10 in the league in passing only 3 times (2001, 2003, and 2005). Only 1 of those teams - the 2003 team - went to the playoffs. That year Steve McNair won the MVP of the League, and you can tell that the running game was secondary.

Talk about a telling stat here in the spreadsheet below. Yes, you can argue against the use of attempts as a justifying stat, especially given the late game offense of winning teams being to run the ball. But this is interesting (league ranks):

Maybe this is why the Titans used their first round draft pick to take a RB in 2008 (Chris Johnson), after taking a running back in the 2nd round in both 2006 (Lendale White) and 2007 (Chris Henry). Jeff Fisher knows that running the ball and defense are more important factors to the Titans' winning than passing offense is.

The passing game issues need to be addressed, as 27th in the league just won't cut it. But improving from 27th to 15th (where I think the Titans can really do some damage if the running game and defense remain steady) is not such a leap as many pundits think it is. The next post tomorrow will have a profile of the Titans WR core, which I think will be much improved. I think you'll be surprised this next season at how much production the Titans get from the 11 WRs currently on the roster.

Vince Young's AARP Membership

. . . is not valid quite yet. This story blew up over the last few days, as Vince Young was quoted as saying that he had "thought about retiring" after his 2006 season (his rookie year). Those quotes combined with this picture of Vince Young surfacing a few weeks back, and he's had a little bit more attention than he'd like for an offseason.

The Pope hesitates to post on topics that don't need commenting, as wasting readers time is not the Pope's favorite thing to do. To keep it short and sweet, here are the Pope's thoughts:

• Vince Young is 25 years old. In that party picture linked to above, he was drinking out of a bottle with his shirt off. Luckily the Pope is not running for reelection anytime soon, because my shirtless/bottle toting pictures are about a dime a dozen. Media and bloggers are happy to show the picture, but not to mention that the picture was taken in Austin, TX, as Vince Young is back at school this offseason finishing his degree. Signed to a deal worth around $55 Mill ($26M guaranteed), obviously he needs his degree right?


• Vince Young, just like any other kid that leaves the perfect world of college, was a bit shocked as he entered the real world in 2006. Being an NFL quarterback is much more mentally, physically, and emotionally difficult than most every job (and they are paid for it). I'm sure he was a little depressed when he had "thoughts of retiring", but I don't believe him. His doubt was unlike anyone else who is adjusting to the real world out of college.


• Vince Young still is and will be a good NFL quarterback. I think he can be great, but he definitely needs to improve. New offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger is ready to bring Vince back to his 2006 Pro Bowl form.
  

One interesting thing that Vince said recently was that he wanted to be a "Hall of Fame Quarterback", not a "Pocket Quarterback" or a "Pro Style Quarterback". Vince didn't run the ball much last year, and many pointed to NFL defenses adjusting to his style of play as the reason for 2007 not being as successful as 2006 was for Vince. In reality Norm Chow had Vince running his offense, without enough regard to Vince's unique talents. Great article here at the Sporting News about how Vince Young and the Titans could be much improved on offense even without having added a top WR.

In addition to Heimerdinger at the helm of the offense, the Titans have added veteran tight end Alge Crumpler, resigned former Titans WRs Justin Gage and Justin McCareins, and drafted a "speed back" in East Carolina's Chris Johnson, who by early indications is working out well. The plan is that Heimerdinger will be molding the offense around Vince, so hopefully we'll see some more of the Rose Bowl Vince in 2008. Heimerdinger was the O-coordinator for Steve McNair during his prime, and seems to have a good feel for mobile QBs.

Vince's performance in the 2006 Rose Bowl, shown here, is still one of the most impressive individual sporting performances I have ever seen in my life, always worth revisiting:

Vegas Baby, Vegas

The Pope was in the US, so he couldn't not go to Vegas right? During my visit, I roamed the sports books of Caesar's, Mirage, Paris, and MGM, looking for futures. Here are some interesting bets/odds that I found:

Tennessee Titans to win Super Bowl = 25 to 1
Memphis Tigers to win 2009 National Basketball Title = 25 to 1
Notre Dame to win 2009 National Basketball Title = 20 to 1
Indiana to win 2009 BCS National Championship (Football) = 125 to 1
Notre Dame to win 2009 BCS National Championship (Football) = 75 to 1
USC to win 2009 BCS National Championship (Football) = 7 to 2 (3.5 to 1)

A few thoughts:

- When was the last time Notre Dame had a greater chance to win the basketball national championship, than the football one? Not only a greater chance, but three times greater chance.

- Certainly we must take into account the Notre Dame bias. Due to the widespread and large number of Notre Dame fans, oftentimes the lines on Notre Dame bets, especially football, are slanted a bit more against Notre Dame (paying less) due to the large number of bettors. If Notre Dame is favored by 7 points in reality, the number of bettors on ND might move the line to 8 or 9 so that the casino can even out the betting. Case in point: the 75 to 1 odds on the National Football Championship have moved down to there from 100 to 1 at the start of betting.

- The Memphis Tigers basketball odds just bring up more pain and coulda/woulda/shoulda from this past season. The Tigers will remain in the picture, although never guaranteed to have a shot at the title like they did in 2008. Tough to read those odds, especially given that they were behind Notre Dame and other teams that clearly they can be better than.

- The "Field" bet for the National Football championship was 18 to 1. Thats a dumb bet though, because every decent BCS team is not considered to be "in the field". A team like Vanderbilt or Ole Miss were examples of teams that would be in the field, and I dont think those odds pay enough despite the 50 or so teams that you would have included.

- I think the Titans winning the Super Bowl is more doable than 25 to 1 personally. Certainly they are not a top 3 team in their conference, but I think that a playoff team with that good of a defense definitely has a reasonable shot at improving for a title shot. I would be more shocked if Notre Dame won the Basketball championship honestly. The defense could be improved through the draft, as well as some potential development in the offense with the new and returned Mike Heimerdinger returning as Offensive Coordinator, he of Steve McNair's MVP season offensive coordinating fame.

- USC, I think, has the best shot to win next year. Vegas agrees, with the lowest odds by far being the 7/2 bet on the Trojans to win the title. The SEC is too tough to consider Georgia, Florida, or a rebuilding LSU, and the Trojans have proved to be the best team outside of the SEC in many's mind each year. USC last year, possibly could have beaten LSU at season's end, and they would have been in the title game if not for 5 major injuries in the middle of the season that cost them 2 close losses (Stanford & @ Oregon). 7/2 odds is not worth the bet though, as Vegas knows better than anyone who the best chance is.

Odds of the Pope returning to Vegas = 1/1 Zillion

Back From Europe - Grab Bag

My apologies for not having posted since mid December. I have been busy with work, then out of the country the past few weeks. A lot as happened as we have started 2008. Here are a few observations:

The Titans made the playoffs but didnt make any "noise" like I predicted below. Despite holding LT and the Chargers to 40 yards rushing, the Titans were defeated 17-6. Two big factors helped us out in getting to the playoffs, the Browns losing to the Bengals in week 16, and the Colts laying down for us in week 17. We held the third tiebreaker over the Browns (record against common opponents - see my post below about help wanted Titans playoffs). The Browns had a much better offense than the Titans, but the bread and butter of this years team was a very physical brand of defense that nobody ran on. Our pass defense was strong as well, including our ability to pressure the quarterback. San Diego eliminated us from the playoffs with 17 points, obviously a victory for the Titans defense. Big offseason to dos: The defense must maintain by signing Haynesworth, Vince Young must continue to develop, and we must get some playmakers at WR.

Notre Dame football recruiting continues to shine, ranking the top class in college football on both rivals and scout.com. At the US Army All American game, which displays most of the top high school football talent in the US each year, Notre Dame had an astounding 14 committments in the game, a record. Highlighted on offense by Dayne Crist, top 5 QB, who connected with two Irish WR committs for 3 touchdowns in the game (Michael Floyd and John Goodman). On defense Darius Fleming (ILB) impressed, as well as less heralded defensive tackle Brandon Newman. We had a major decommittment, however, in Omar Hunter, who will likely sign with Florida, making two committments pulled from ND by Florida in 2 years. Omar is a stud DT, and is a major blow. However, overall talent on the Dline we are getting this year will be huge for our teams future depth. At this point, we need to maintain our current 22 committments, and hopefully add one or two more towards the finish (February 6th, signing day).

The NFL Playoffs are here. Look for my playoff edition of Holy Wagers from the Vatican in a post later today.

Help Wanted: Titans Playoffs

The Titans beat the Chiefs yesterday to get to 8-6, matching last season's win total. 9 wins and some luck made the playoffs in the AFC last season. This year, its going to take 10 wins and some luck, by my estimation. Here is the simple breakdown:

• There are 3 teams in the hunt for 2 playoff spots. The Jaguars (10-4), the Browns (9-5), and the Titans (8-6). The Jaguars are in with one more win or a loss by either of the other teams. The Browns win their final two and they are in.


• The Titans must have the Browns lose to the Bengals this weekend, or 2 losses by the Jaguars, combined with winning the final two games against the Jets and Colts.


• Most likely playoff scenario is the Browns losing to the Bengals and beating the 49ers in their final game, while the Titans win the final two games. Jaguars finish 1-1 or 2-0, and are in the playoffs most likely. The Browns and Titans would be in a tiebreaker situation, as there would be no head to head matchup to use.


• As posted below, the tiebreaker between the Browns and Titans would be AFC Conference record. The Titans are at 5-5 with 2 AFC games remaining, while the Browns are at 7-5 with 1 AFC game remaining (the other being the 49ers)


• If the Browns beat the Bengals, they would be finished with their AFC slate at 8-4. They would clinch a tiebreaker over the Titans if both finished with a 10-6 record, since that would mean the Titans went 7-7 in AFC play.


• Plain and simple, if the Browns beat the Bengals this weekend and the Jaguars win 1 of their final 2 games, the Titans are out of the playoffs. Both are likely to happen.

There is hope for Titans fans, as the Bengals host the Browns in Cleveland this weekend. Also, this is Cleveland, a town that has a history of big time choke jobs and losses. Tennessee has had a lot of good things happening the past two seasons, but making the playoffs would top that list.

The Titans should have no trouble with the Jets this weekend, setting up a New Years Eve must win with the Colts. Sounds tough right? But here is the good part. Indianapolis with a win this weekend against the Texans, will have nothing to play for against the Titans. They will have a first round bye with either a win or a Jacksonville loss. And the Patriots have already sealed up home field advantage and the #1 seed. The Colts will be etched with the #2 seed and will have no need to win, which possibly will give the Titans the edge they need to get into the playoffs.

I have a feeling that we won't be in the playoffs. But if we do make it, we will make some noise, I can guarantee that. By "noise" I mean a win, an upset. Something like going into Pittsburgh or San Diego and winning, then giving the Patriots the game of their lives. Might be wishful thinking. But, its good to know that our QB is a big game player and has been there before in big games.

Titans - Playoff Push

The Tennessee Titans ended a 3 game skid on Sunday beating the divisional opponent Houston Texans 28-20. The Titans got some big plays, and the offense finally put a running and passing effort together. Haynesworth needs to get and stay healthy on defense, which would really allow us to be a top 5 type defense in this league.

Where does this put us with the Playoffs?

The win keeps the Titans in the playoff hunt at 7-5. Its likely going to take 10 wins, maybe even 11, to win the wildcard. With 4 games remaining (Chargers, Chiefs, Jets, @ Colts), the Titans are going to have to win 3 of these 4 games to have a chance realistically, and here's why:

• There are 3 teams right now in the hunt for the 2 wildcards - the Browns, Jaguars, and Titans.


• Check out the tiebreaker procedures for NFL teams in the playoffs here. The Titans likely will not hold the tiebreaker over either, as the Jags will likely have a better divisional record, assuming the Jags beat Houston and the Titans lose to the Colts. If the Jags lose to the Steelers and the Titans go 4-0 then the Titans would have the tiebreaker with a 4-2 divisional record. Titans beating the Colts would give the Titans that tiebreaker over the same record Jaguars. If the Titans go 3-1, losing to the Colts, and the Jags go 2-2, then one of those losses would have to be to Houston for the tiebreaker to go to the Titans. If the Jags beat Houston but lose to Carolina and Pittsburgh, then I believe they would have to go to strength of schedule in a tie with the Titans for a tiebreaker at 10-6. Crazy.


• The Browns have an easy finishing slate, with Jets, Bills, Bengals, and 49ers. If they win out, they would have the tiebreaker over the Titans with a better conference record at 8-4. The Titans would finish 8-4 in conference if they win out, but they would have to defeat the Colts to do so. Lucky here, though, this tiebreaker of 11-5 would also go to strength of schedule. Likely the Jags would be here in a huge 3-way tie. Messy.

Plainly said, the Titans are going to have to win 3 of their final 4 games to have a chance. If they go 3-1, they are also going to need some timely losses from the Browns and Jaguars, so much so that even 4-0 for the Titans could have us on the outside of the playoffs.

Winning against the Chargers this weekend is a must, as the Chiefs and Jets the following two weeks are hopefully winnable games at home. We dont want to go into the final game of the season having to beat the Colts. I will be at the game cheering them on . . .

Throwback Football

The Titans are 6-2 and off to a great start for the season. So far this season my boy at ESPN, Merrill Hodge, who is known as a Vince Young hater, has been in some ways correct in his assessment of the Titans QB. He predicted that Vince Young would continue to have passing trouble that would stall the Titans offense. Vince Young has had a few good games, but overall, his passing stats are not great, with a passer rating of 61.5. While he has run for a few TDs and has completed 62% of his passes, he hasn't been consistent. Merrill said that Vince Young would have a bad year, and that the Titans would be lucky to win 5 or 6 games. This is entertaining:



While Vince Young has had trouble passing as Merrill predicted, the Titans overall offense and team play have not. Merrill looks a bit dumb right now, as there have been a few surprises for the Titans at the season's midway point. Tennessee's ranks in team for the entire NFL (AFC)categories are as follows:

Rushing Yards (Offense) - 3rd (2nd)
Rushing Yards (Defense) - 1st (1st)
Defensive Yards Total - 2nd (2nd)
Defensive Points Allowed - 2nd (2nd)

You can see the updated rankings through this week by clicking here. Quite simply, the Titans are running the ball and stopping the run, which is the definition of throwback football.

Today's game is very different in that you typically must have a passing attack to go along with this formula to consistently win. Many would argue that our weakness in the passing game will be this team's fatal flaw. While we do rank last in the AFC and second to last in the NFL in passing yards (to the 49ers), I think that our playcalling and gameplanning has really taken the pass out of the arsenal in favor of running the ball with a few short, safe passes for VY.

The Titans "passing game" should be measured not by passing TDs and yards in the air, but rather a combination of VY's passing and rushing yards, as well as passing and rushing TDs. This is the most objective and comparable estimate to a traditional QB, as most of VY's rush yardage are on plays where he is not designed to run. Here is a stat line for VY, that I would say would be a fantastic game:

175 yards passing, 75 yards rushing, 1 pass td, 1 rush td

Adding his rushing and passing yards together is a much better measure of his ability as a QB. The above stat line would give him 250 yards and 2 td, although some of them were with his legs and not his arm. While everyone claims that you cannot have a running QB in the NFL, I question what their definition of a running QB is. VY is a dual threat QB that makes plays in the passing game - both with his arm and his legs. Many NFL analysts will cringe at this, but a yard is a yard. Certainly VY's health could be an issue long term, but for the present, he needs to play his way to be most effective.

Vince Young should have very very few plays designed for him to run as the first option - but short passing plays where he checks one read and then either passes or runs for 5 yards are the bread and butter plays for Vince Young. If the defense doesn't leave a spy, then you run. If the defense does leave a spy, find the open WR. An offense designed around simple passing reads will work best for VY, and that appears to be what Norm Chow is doing.

Kudos to the Titans so far this year. The defense has been spectacular, as has been the running game. IF VY joins their level of production, this team can win a few playoff games.

Crazy 8's

The Titans looked great for 3 quarters, and then for 50 seconds.

Somehow the Titans beat the Texans 38-36, after blowing a 25 point 4th quarter lead. The game was won on the foot of journeyman Rob Bironas, who kicked an NFL record 8 field goals from distances of 29, 52, 43, 25, 21, 30, 28, and 29 (for those of you keeping fantasy points scored at home, thats 27.5 for a kicker!).

The Titans looked better than the two previous weeks, which is a good sign. They have not really played well after the bye week 3, but they did on Sunday mostly. The defense continues to pressure the QB and be extremely aggressive, getting turnovers to help our offense sans-Vince Young. Kudos to Kerry Collins, who made some fantastic throws all day, especially in the game-winning drive. Also kudos to the long snapper and field goal place holder, who gave Bironas the 8 opportunities to score.

Beating the Texas and the Jags losing puts us at 4-2, holding the 2nd place spot in the division with tiebreaking wins over the Jags and Texans. We have a few easy games coming up at home that we need to win. I think 10 wins gets us in the playoffs, assuming we are second place in our division of course. That means 6 more wins out of our last 10 games. Definitely doable.

Titans Wrapup

Yes, the Titans lost to the Bucs. I was pretty emotionally spent from the ND game on Saturday to feel too down, but I couldnt help but remember my fear going into the bye week in a post two weeks ago - that we would go flat and lose some of the offensive chemistry we had. It appears that has come to fruition, as our offense performed very inconsistently and is turning the ball over.

The bright spot is the defense, which continues to hold teams in the teens. Certainly we have only played one high power offense (the Colts), but the Titans defense has performed admirably.

Yes, we gave up a 70 yard drive for the game winning field goal on defense. However, two things come to mind there:

• Our defense played great the whole game, so 13 points by the other team should be low enough bar for our offense
  
• Jeff Garcia through a critical pass on the drive when he was arguably across the line of scrimmage

I've searched YouTube and cannot find video footage of the play. It was so close that it at least should have been reviewed, being in the last minute of the game and on a critical third down conversion. No replay occurred, and the Bucs were in position to kick a game winning field goal.

The offense was largely stagnant the entire game, but having Vince Young out with an injury most of the second half didnt help either.

Next week the Titans play at Houston in a huge game for both teams. Winning this game will give the Titans a legup over all division teams except the Colts, as winning the AFC South is likely impossible and a wild-card birth is more likely this teams goal. With the game being in his hometown, I bet Vince Young will play and play very well.

Winning Ugly

Despite the big first win for the Irish, I certainly did not fail to notice another big win by my Tennessee Titans. In years past, the Titans would never have won that football game yesterday against the Atlanta Falcons. Read here for a good summary of the game.

After the way the Titans played in weeks 2 and 3, nearly beating the Colts and thumping the Saints on MNF, I wished out loud that the Titans did not have a bye week in week 4 - we were playing too well to take a week off. I was correct, and we certainly looked rusty out there against the hapless Falcons. Vince Young was not all there, and the offensive line did not have the power they showed in weeks 1-3. The defense picked up the offense though, and made enough big plays and key stops to give us a W in a game that would have been an L to 75% of NFL teams. Very very very rarely can you win any football game in which you turn the ball over 5 times. Just ask UCLA.

We have to be pleased with a 3-1 start at the quarter mark of our season. The only issue with early byes is that there will be a week later in this season where we are tired, and could use a rest. Hopefully we have used our bye week and gotten good rest and can stay focused the next few weeks.