Pitted as Mediocre

Before I dive into the Irish loss to Pitt in quadruple overtime, here is how I did on my pregame predictions in the post from Friday: 

• Prediction 1  -  Jimmy Clausen will pass for 300 yards and 3 TDs / 1 int   -  Jimmy threw for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns, no interceptions. Pretty much spot on with what I expected. However, about 35 of those passing yards came in overtime. Still a spot on prediction for the most part.
• Prediction 2  - Pitt ground attack will have a solid day, gaining 175 yards rushing on the Irish. McCoy gets 135 yards and 2 TDs.  The Pitt ground game had a very good day, and my predition was just 3 yards off. Pittsburgh had 178 yards on the ground, but McCoy had 169 of them. He is better than I expected. He only had 1 TD though.
• Prediction 3  -  Irish special teams hits bit with a Golden Tate punt return for a td. Tate's confidence is high, and he is ready to take one to the house.  No dice here. No returns were even close to being returned, a subpar day for the Irish return game.
• Prediction 4 - Irish defense comes up big, forcing 3 turnovers; 2 come from the Pitt QB Bill Stull via INT or fumble. The Irish forced exactly 3 turnovers as I predicted, all 3 coming from the Pittsburgh QB. The Pitt QB was not Bill Stull, but rather was backup Pat Bostick.
• Score Prediction Time!!!   IRISH   42   PITT   20     -  This one hurts. I was spot on with Pitt, which scored 24 points in regulation. But I far overestimated the Irish offense, which came to a screeching halt in the second half.

All in all, my predictions were as good as they have been for any game, all except my prediction of the final score. I vastly overestimated how much the Irish offense could score on the Pitt defense.

 

You can check out the stats for yourself here. Amazing how even the statistics were at the end of the game, but how lopsided they were from half to half. For instance, the total offense for the entire game (including the 4 OTs) favored the Irish by a small margin, 386 to 346 yards. But at the end of the first half, the Irish had outgained the Panthers 228 yards to 63 yards. Up by two touchdowns, the Irish simply needed to score even or slightly behind the Panthers in the 2nd half for an easy victory.

 

The Irish came out of halftime with a chance to throw a knockout punch to Pitt  -  holding them to a 3 and out and then getting the ball and scoring. The Irish stopped Pitt on 3rd and 8 after 3 plays, but a late hit by Harrison Smith ended extended the Pitt drive, which eventually resulted in a TD. At the end of the 3rd quarter, Pitt had outgained the Irish during the quarter 144 yards to 8 yards, and the door for Pitt to win the game slide open a little more.

 

An awful 3rd quarter was result of a few things, but the most telling reason for the third quarter offensive awfulness is the Irish's inability to run the football. The playcalls were heavy with the run, and the Irish simply didn't execute. The coaches wanted to run some clock and control the game on the ground in the 3rd quarter - but it wasn't working. Instead of going back to more passes, the offensive playcalling stayed with the run. Irish went 3 and out 3 times in the 3rd quarter, passing on the 3rd downs but trying to throw right into an 8 man zone by the Pittsburgh defense. Irish even started one drive at the Pitt 37 yard line  -  not scoring with a golden opportunity that would have sealed the game.

 

The biggest thing I take from this game is that the Irish lack the killer instinct to put an opponent away, to slash the throat when they have them down. An awful 3rd quarter offense, an untimely penalty, and the inability to stop Pitt's running game in the 2nd half doomed the Irish. The game did go 4 overtimes, but the Irish should never have allowed this game to even get there. With only 1 scoring drive in the 2nd half, the Irish were just 1 scoring drive short of easily winning the game. And even when overtime began, the Irish had 2 golden chances to win the game  -  getting to the 3 yard line after Pitt had kicked a field goal in the first OT, and Jimmy missing a wide open Michael Floyd on a go route from the slot in the 2nd OT. Nothing went well for the Irish after halftime.

 

Kudos to kicker Brandon Walker for his 4/5 field goal performance. His miss in overtime was tough, but he kicked well all day and this game is not on him.

 

The game this week against the Boston College Eagles from Boston is critical if the Irish want to have a "good" season instead of an "ok" one. Winning this game puts the Irish back on track for a New Years Day bowl game and an 8-4 record. Losing this game means the Sun Bowl and 7-5 are more likely. If the Irish plan on returning to college football's elite, they need to start with beating the second tier teams like Pitt and Boston College. I am not talking about tier 1 SEC or Big 12 teams, I am talking about top 40 contenders in weak BCS conferences. I sure hope things change this week.

Tough Loss

Irish lost 36-33 to Pitt in quadruple OT. On my way home from the game now - a tough loss for the Irish in a separation game.

The Irish had numerous chances to win the game in regulation and each OT - and had control of the game for nearly 55 minutes. Missing those chances to close the book on the Panthers means that the Irish deserved to lose.

This loss was tougher to swallow than the UNC loss, because the Irish had complete control of the game for so long. The Irish never trailed until overtime, unlike the Tar Heel loss. The Irish never turned the ball over, compared to three turnovers by Pitt.

More stats and posting tomorrow on the loss. My initial reaction is that the Irish coaching staff called many questionable plays on offense, which helped the Panthers gain confidence slowly throughout the game. The game was lost not by the Irish defense or the 4/5 field goal performance by Brandon Walker - this game was lost by the Irish offense, who's lack of killer instinct to put Pitt away early, left the door open for a Pitt comeback and victory.

Next week's game at Boston College is a must win.

Pitt Game preview

Big game for two 5-2 football teams, as the Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Fighting Irish on Saturday at 1:30pm CENTRAL time on NBC. The winner will be 6-2 and looking good for a New Years Day bowl game.
 
What to watch for  -  my keys of the game:

* Pitt running game  -  LeSean McCoy is a great RB, and has run for 140 yards in 5 straight games. The Irish must either slow him down, or get a lead early, forcing Pitt to pass. Stopping the run game of Pitt  -  one way or the other  -  will be the key to getting the Pitt passing offense on the field, allowing the Irish the chance at some big pressure plays on an injured QB for Pitt (Bill Stull). Pitt's run/pass balance is opposite of Notre Dame's pass heavy attack, so both teams know what to defend.

* Irish passing game  -  The top 20 ranked Irish passing offense has been improving all year. With Pitt's struggles against the pass last week versus Rutgers (5 pass TDs in the first half, after Rutgers only had 3 pass TDs in their first 6 games), Jimmy, Floyd, and co must be excited about the opportunity to pass on Pitt. If I were coaching Pitt (I'm not the Wannstache), I would zone defense the heck out of the Irish, leaving 5 at most in the box to cover the run. Getting an early lead using the deep passing game would let the Irish defense tee off on a Pitt offense that would be forced to pass the ball. Passing the ball effectively and early will be a major key for an Irish victory.

* Kicking game  -  The Irish kicking game is going to be put in some critical positions in these last 5 games. So far the 4 for 10 kicking record by Brandon Walker hasn't really cost the Irish - yet. 2 misses made the Michigan St game more comfortable for our opponents, which we cannot afford to give our next few opponents. I'm rooting for Brandon Walker, who has made all his extra points this season, in addition to making his last 3 field goal attempts.

Prediction time!

* Prediction 1  -  Jimmy Clausen will pass for 300 yards and 3 TDs / 1 int

* Prediction 2  - Pitt ground attack will have a solid day, gaining 175 yards rushing on the Irish. McCoy gets 135 yards and 2 TDs

* Prediction 3  -  Irish special teams hits bit with a Golden Tate punt return for a td. Tate's confidence is high, and he is ready to take one to the house.

* Prediction 4 - Irish defense comes up big, forcing 3 turnovers; 2 come from the Pitt QB Bill Stull via INT or fumble.

Score Prediction Time!!!
 
IRISH   42         PITT   20

Have a great weekend, and GO IRISH!!!

Commanding Respect

Monday night, the Titans unseated the Colts as the class of the AFC South division, winning 31-21 on Monday Night Football in Nashville. The win moves the Titans to 7-0, now with a 4 game lead on every divisional opponent with only 9 games left. Likely the Titans are good for a minimum of 11 wins at this point, so it would be difficult to lose the division to anyone who doesn't win out from this point on.

 

This was a big win for the Titans, but the media and MNF crew really blew everything out of proportion. Some points about the importance of this win, the media coverage, and the rest of year, in the very trusted and Vatican Smoke preferred communication method of bullets:

• Media coverage suggested that "the Titans must win this game to prove that they belong in the upper echelon of the NFL"  -  That's garbage. Win or lose this game, the Titans are at worst tied for the best record in football, and are an elite team no matter what. NFL teams lose games  -  its not college football, where good teams must go undefeated. The Titans are going to lose a game or two or three this year, and they are still going to finish the top seed in the AFC very likely.
• The MNF crew was throwing around Hyperbole after Hyperbole to describe the Tennessee Titans. Here are a few examples, not full quotes but near exactly what they (usually Tony Kornheiser) said:

"Nashville is a small town, so its nice to see that Nashville can support an NFL team."

 

Are you kidding me? Nashville is ranked anywhere from 28 to 38 depending on whether you measure the population as being the "Metropolitan area" or the actual city limits. Check it out here and here. Nashville is actually bigger than Atlanta if you just measure the actual city limits population, not the metropolitan area. Nashville is as big or a bigger market than Indianapolis. If the Titans had Peyton Manning on their team, the Colts would be the small market and the Titans the big market team in Tony's eyes.

 

"The Titans must have this win to have credibility in this league. They are going to be looked at as a fraud if they cannot win this game."

 

Seriously? A fraud for being 6-1 in the NFL. Yes, our schedule has been weak. But who else is better? The Giants at 6-1 got pummeled by the Browns, and the Bills/Patriots lost to Miami. The Cowboys are well profiled with their recent losses, and the Eagles are 4-3. Who is better than a 6-1 Titans team? Stupid analysis, creating drama out of nothing.

 

"The Titans winning this game is David finally slaying Goliath, after so many failed attempts".

 

Geeeeez. Are you serious Tony? I understand that the Colts have a record against the Titans of 8-5 since the Colts and the Titans were paired into the same division (AFC South) in 2002, but come on. Including Monday night, the Titans have won 2 in a row over the Colts, and have a 3-2 record since 2006. Yes, the Colts dominated the Titans in 2003-2005, but this is 2008 Tony.

 

As you can tell, I was a bit fired up about the portrayal the MNF crew was making. I realize they were trying to sell the game, to create drama out of a franchise that is fairly star-less and somewhat bland. The fact that we win as a team shouldn't be bland, but it is to ESPN I guess.

• The Titans should get the AFC's top seed  -  The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers are the next two best records in the AFC, sitting at 5-2. Each of them have tough divisional foes (New England and Baltimore) and will likely lose at least 1 or 2 more. If the Titans can win 13 games  -  meaning they win 6 of their last 9, I think its going to be difficult for us not to have the #1 seed. That #1 seed is huge  -  as it means a bye in the playoffs, and homefield advantage for both potential playoffs games.
• The Looming issue over the Titans, as continually alluded to by ESPN throughout the entire day, is the future of Vince Young  -  VY has barely played this season, but somehow he was the focus of every ESPN report on Monday. Everyone has an opinion of whether he will play again, what happened to him during the week 1 game, and how is college background affected everything. I am not sure what happened, and I am not a psychologist, so I am not going to try to explain what we cannot fully know. I will offer up this, and you can take it to the bank  -  Vince Young will play meaningful snaps for the Titans this season. I am not sure when, but he is going to be called upon, I promise. I want to guarantee his success, largely because he will use this experience on the sideline to learn a lot that 25 year olds don't know. I cannot do that, but this kid is a winner and I'm sticking with him.

All in all, it was a big win and a big night for the Titans. Hopefully we will get some more media coverage and respect, and keep playing for National TV audiences this year and the next. Great job so far by Coach Fisher, kudos.

Put to Sleep

Nothing can better describe the 33-7 trouncing of the Washington Huskies by the Irish on Saturday, than "put to sleep". Here is a list of everything that was "put to sleep" last Saturday night in Seattle:

• Willingham's tenure at Washington  -  a good man, but a poor football coach. I have always respected him, but have also felt ND made the right move in firing him. Washington held onto him into his 4th year, and I'm afraid that will cost them a lot in the future.
• Willingham's firing by Notre Dame  -  anyone watching the game saw the two programs and the directions each coach had led his team. Weis has ND on the rise, while Washington may be the worst team in the country. I don't enjoy the misery of Willingham, but I am glad that people who hold the "ND is racist" thoughts about our firing Willingham, no longer have anything left to say. The man was not a good football coach, he deserved to be fired, and he is still owed $5M by Notre Dame and a few more $$M by Washington. I feel sorry for him not, best of luck to Ty in his future.
• ND's road game troubles  -  the Irish first road win this season was against an awful opponent, but it was still a dominating win 3000 miles away from home.
• Me, on the couch  -  for having to watch the 2nd half. ND was killing Washington, and being his style, Weis never runs it up on other coaches, particularly with the potential sensitivity of the ND / Willingham connection. The Irish could have scored 60 points, easily, but decided to pull back the reins, run the ball, and put all 2nd stringers in for nearly the entire 4th quarter (and some in the 3rd).
• The Embarrassment of missing a bowl game in 2007  -  with a record of 5-2 and 4 winnable but difficult games left, the Irish are almost assured of a bowl birth for the 2008 season. Early reports have the Cotton Bowl as an option if the Irish can get to 8 wins, which would be in good shape if the Irish can beat either Boston College or Pittsburgh (this weekend).

Here is how the Vatican's predictions went for the Washington game (see Friday post below):

Prediction 1  >>  Jimmy will throw for 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and the biggie - ZERO interceptions.   Jimmy threw for a little over 200 yards and 1 TD, but did have 1 interception that was a tipped pass (not his fault). One of his worse games actually, but Washington was so poor defensively, that nothing more was needed.

Prediction 2  >>  The Irish will finish with 500 yards total offense, 310 in the air and 190 on the ground.  Irish finished with 459 yards of total offense, so not a bad call. We beat the ground prediction with 252 yards on the ground, easily the best Weis ground game of his tenure. The passing total was 207 yards.

Prediction 3  >>  Armando Allen hits the 100 yard rushing mark and scores 2 TDs  -  one on the ground, one in the air. Armando was held without a touchdown, as James Aldridge had both running back touchdowns. Aldridge had 84 yards, leading the way for the Irish with his best game of his career. Allen played well also, notching 62 yards. True Freshman Jonas Grey even chipped in 61 yards.

Prediction 4  >>  Irish field goal kicker Brandon Walker misses a short field goal early; his replacement David Ruffer comes in and makes a kick.  Good for Brandon Walker proving me wrong. He nails both field goals he attempts, and Ruffer misses an extra point late in the game. Walker still has the job, but the walk-on David Ruffer is still intriguing if he can get past the goose bumps.

Score prediction  >>  I predicted Irish 38, Washington 17. Not too far off, as the Irish scored 33 points and Washington scored 7. I under estimated how easily we could score on Washington, as we could have hung 50 pts easily. I also underestimated how bad Washington's defense is. They are awful. My record picking the winner in ND games is 6-1, while my record against the spread is 5-2. (I predicted every game's winner correctly, save for the North Carolina game. I also predicted a cover in the Michigan St game, but was wrong. I predicted winning but not covering against Purdue, and was wrong there as well).

 

Big week for the Irish, hosting Pitt this weekend in South Bend. I will be there, ready to cheer the Irish on to a for sure New Years Day bowl with a victory. We are going to pass the ball on their defense, and they are going to run the ball. Both gameplans will be obvious - will be interesting to see what gives. Prediction later this week, for all you gamblers out there.