Pitted as Mediocre

Before I dive into the Irish loss to Pitt in quadruple overtime, here is how I did on my pregame predictions in the post from Friday: 

• Prediction 1  -  Jimmy Clausen will pass for 300 yards and 3 TDs / 1 int   -  Jimmy threw for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns, no interceptions. Pretty much spot on with what I expected. However, about 35 of those passing yards came in overtime. Still a spot on prediction for the most part.
• Prediction 2  - Pitt ground attack will have a solid day, gaining 175 yards rushing on the Irish. McCoy gets 135 yards and 2 TDs.  The Pitt ground game had a very good day, and my predition was just 3 yards off. Pittsburgh had 178 yards on the ground, but McCoy had 169 of them. He is better than I expected. He only had 1 TD though.
• Prediction 3  -  Irish special teams hits bit with a Golden Tate punt return for a td. Tate's confidence is high, and he is ready to take one to the house.  No dice here. No returns were even close to being returned, a subpar day for the Irish return game.
• Prediction 4 - Irish defense comes up big, forcing 3 turnovers; 2 come from the Pitt QB Bill Stull via INT or fumble. The Irish forced exactly 3 turnovers as I predicted, all 3 coming from the Pittsburgh QB. The Pitt QB was not Bill Stull, but rather was backup Pat Bostick.
• Score Prediction Time!!!   IRISH   42   PITT   20     -  This one hurts. I was spot on with Pitt, which scored 24 points in regulation. But I far overestimated the Irish offense, which came to a screeching halt in the second half.

All in all, my predictions were as good as they have been for any game, all except my prediction of the final score. I vastly overestimated how much the Irish offense could score on the Pitt defense.

 

You can check out the stats for yourself here. Amazing how even the statistics were at the end of the game, but how lopsided they were from half to half. For instance, the total offense for the entire game (including the 4 OTs) favored the Irish by a small margin, 386 to 346 yards. But at the end of the first half, the Irish had outgained the Panthers 228 yards to 63 yards. Up by two touchdowns, the Irish simply needed to score even or slightly behind the Panthers in the 2nd half for an easy victory.

 

The Irish came out of halftime with a chance to throw a knockout punch to Pitt  -  holding them to a 3 and out and then getting the ball and scoring. The Irish stopped Pitt on 3rd and 8 after 3 plays, but a late hit by Harrison Smith ended extended the Pitt drive, which eventually resulted in a TD. At the end of the 3rd quarter, Pitt had outgained the Irish during the quarter 144 yards to 8 yards, and the door for Pitt to win the game slide open a little more.

 

An awful 3rd quarter was result of a few things, but the most telling reason for the third quarter offensive awfulness is the Irish's inability to run the football. The playcalls were heavy with the run, and the Irish simply didn't execute. The coaches wanted to run some clock and control the game on the ground in the 3rd quarter - but it wasn't working. Instead of going back to more passes, the offensive playcalling stayed with the run. Irish went 3 and out 3 times in the 3rd quarter, passing on the 3rd downs but trying to throw right into an 8 man zone by the Pittsburgh defense. Irish even started one drive at the Pitt 37 yard line  -  not scoring with a golden opportunity that would have sealed the game.

 

The biggest thing I take from this game is that the Irish lack the killer instinct to put an opponent away, to slash the throat when they have them down. An awful 3rd quarter offense, an untimely penalty, and the inability to stop Pitt's running game in the 2nd half doomed the Irish. The game did go 4 overtimes, but the Irish should never have allowed this game to even get there. With only 1 scoring drive in the 2nd half, the Irish were just 1 scoring drive short of easily winning the game. And even when overtime began, the Irish had 2 golden chances to win the game  -  getting to the 3 yard line after Pitt had kicked a field goal in the first OT, and Jimmy missing a wide open Michael Floyd on a go route from the slot in the 2nd OT. Nothing went well for the Irish after halftime.

 

Kudos to kicker Brandon Walker for his 4/5 field goal performance. His miss in overtime was tough, but he kicked well all day and this game is not on him.

 

The game this week against the Boston College Eagles from Boston is critical if the Irish want to have a "good" season instead of an "ok" one. Winning this game puts the Irish back on track for a New Years Day bowl game and an 8-4 record. Losing this game means the Sun Bowl and 7-5 are more likely. If the Irish plan on returning to college football's elite, they need to start with beating the second tier teams like Pitt and Boston College. I am not talking about tier 1 SEC or Big 12 teams, I am talking about top 40 contenders in weak BCS conferences. I sure hope things change this week.