Party Cloudy

Although we won't know anything official until Monday, Notre Dame's bowl picture cleared up slightly based on the result of the Rutgers vs Louisville game last night.

With the Rutgers win, the Big East now has enough 7-5 teams to prevent the Sun Bowl from selecting Notre Dame. Notre Dame is considered as a member of the Big East pool for 2 bowl games - the Sun and Gator. Notre Dame can be selected by either bowl over any other Big East team UNLESS the Irish are 6-6 and a 7-5 Big East team is still available for a bowl. With Rutgers hitting 7-5 last night, Notre Dame now has no bowl tie-ins. The Irish can only go to a bowl game as an "at large" selection for a bowl game that cannot utilize their conference tie-ins.

Here are the bowls that will be unable to select teams based on their tie ins, each having at least one spot available "at large":

Hawaii Bowl (Dec 24th, Honolulu)

Poinsettia Bowl (Dec 23rd, San Francisco)

Motor City Bowl (Dec 26th, Detroit)

Independence Bowl (Dec 28th, Shreveport)

Texas Bowl (Dec 30th, Houston)

Should any or all of these bowls want Notre Dame, it will be totally up to Notre Dame to decide which offer to accept. From what I am hearing though, Notre Dame wants to avoid any bowl games that would affect exams or occur right around Christmas. [Remember, Notre Dame did not go to any bowl games from 1924 (Rose Bowl) until 1969 (Cotton Bowl), choosing to forgo bowl games and instead have students focus on their exams and the Christmas holidays.] That really only leaves two bowl options - the Independence and the Texas Bowl.

The Texas Bowl has already selected one team - the Rice Owls from Conference USA. As the Big 12 will not have enough eligible teams to fill the other side of the bowl slot (due to 2 teams being in the BCS), the Texas bowl has an at large spot and has been "actively recruiting" Notre Dame, according to the president of the Texas Bowl. Negatives: Playing Rice in Houston, playing a solid offense like Rice. Major downside is that this game will be shown on TV on NFL Network, which is not available to everyone. It will be Tuesday evening game as well, albeit the only college bowl game on at that time. Positives: Playing in an NFL Stadium (Reliant Stadium, home of the Houston Texans). Rice does not have a particularly strong defense.

The Independence Bowl is much more wide open. Since both the Big 12 and SEC will fail to provide a team through their tie ins (largely due to both conferences sending 2 teams to BCS bowls), the Independence Bowl has two spots available. One interesting note - last year the game featured Alabama versus Colorado. As to who the two teams will be, its anyone's guess. La Tech, Memphis, Notre Dame, Arkansas St., Western Michigan, and a few others. Negatives: Not a marquee opponent, Shreveport is pretty boring. Positives: A Sunday night ESPN game national spot, a winnable game, and its a relatively close drive for yours truly.

One major positive from either of these bowls is the opportunity to break the bowl game winning streak. But with an easier opponent than traditional Irish bowl matchup, the potential embarrassment factor also is in play.

If I had to predict the bowl destination, I would say 70% chance of the Texas Bowl against Rice, 30% chance of the Independence Bowl against La-Tech. I personally am rooting for the Independence Bowl due to location, but the Texas Bowl probably sounds like a better fit. Houston is a big Texas city that Notre Dame would like to recruit more in. The stadium is Super Bowl caliber NFL stadium. Rice is a solid and beatable team. Official destination will be known on Sunday at 4pm. More to come then . . .

To the Edge and Back Again

Sorry for not posting the past few days. I have been watching the whole media feeding frenzy after the USC loss, and really just waiting for something to write about. Certainly I could have posted about a number of things. Focusing on new coaching candidates could have been a post or two, but I wasn't sure Weis would be fired and I did not want to waste the energy. I could have done a post game wrap up after the USC game, but who wants to break down a 38-3 drubbing? And I doubt you'd care to read it.


Now that Notre Dame has officially come out and backed Charlie Weis publicly, we can end the confusion and actually put things into perspective.


Notre Dame football this season has put me through the gamut of emotions - first I was disappointed by the losses to Michigan St. and North Carolina, then outraged by the losses to Pitt and BC. Finally came apathy after the loss to Syracuse, and embarrassment after the drubbing by USC this past weekend. Somewhere in between was awe as to how we almost lost to Navy on 2 straight onsides kicks. The past few days have brought numerous feelings about Charlie Weis. It feels as if we fired him Saturday night or Sunday - and then rehired him on Tuesday night. Weird.


No matter what we have all felt the past few weeks and months, we are now left with a mediocre football team and a beleaguered coach that is likely on a very short leash. I will not waste any time outside of this post speculating as to whether keeping Charlie or firing Charlie was the right move. I honestly don't know the answer, as you can give compelling reasons for both. Since I am positive and looking forward, here are a few reasons why we should be glad the school kept Charlie:


Charlie is a great recruiter that has refueled the talent pipeline in South Bend. Davie and Willingham did not recruit nearly at the top 10 level Weis has, although on the field the results have not yet been different. His Super Bowl rings are still shiny to recruits and should be to us fans also.


Charlie desperately cares for this program, and is an Alumnus of ND. I realize that my devotion to ND football does not qualify me to be coach, but this characteristic cannot be overlooked.


Charlie has been humbled and walked to the edge of his career ledge - yet he's still around. Men have a strange way of sometimes taking these experiences and improving.


Charlie's presence will create some continuity for the Irish. 5 years for a head coach is really the best way to measure him, although 5 years is too long for most fans today. Charlie now has had time to develop all of his recruiting classes and allow guys to have lots of experience in his system.


Charlie is willing to change. He certainly is going to have to change a lot, especially on his coaching staff. Look for at least 3 coaches to be gone, likely the Offensive Coordinator Mike Haywood, Offensive Line coach John Latina, and Defensive Line coach Jappy Oliver. The most important position that has been underdeveloped has been offensive line, so we must get an offensive line coaching guru to ND at all costs.


Next year Charlie will have his full lineup of experienced Weis recruits. Lets give him the one and final shot to prove his worth.


No more Charlie job talk. In the coming posts we will focus on the bowl game, recruiting, grades for every position, and any other topic that presents itself on the road to improvement. We are not looking back with regret or emotion, but with a critical approach to get better. Negativity about the program or Weis will not live here.

I want a divorce

Irish get rolled 38-3. Once again, I picked half of the score correct, as I predicted USC to score 38 points. I would be surprised if I blog on another subject besides the firing of Charlie Weis for the coming weeks.

Tonight

Sorry for the lack of posts. Been a good Thanksgiving holiday with the family. 

A few notes before a very defining game for Charlie Weis and the current state of Notre Dame football:

-  Notre Dame has not beaten USC since 2001; USC's average margin of victory is nearly 24 points in those wins.

- USC's defense is averaging only 8.7pts given up per game. That's tops in the country. 

- The point spread is up to 32 points (USC favored of course) in some spots

- The Irish defense hasn't given up more than 24 points all season against an opposing offense. 

-  In the 5 Irish road games this season, the Irish have turned the ball over 19 times versus only 3 takeaways.

We all want the Irish to win this game, but it just doesn't seem possible. Funny things happen when programs and coaches and players are "near the edge", but there have been no indications on the field at any point in the last 2 seasons to indicate the Irish have a chance to even stay in this game. 

Prediction time

Prediction 1  -  The Irish get a few lucky bounces tonight. Likely early, a turnover or two. How the Irish handle these gift wrapped chances will determine if we stay in the game past the first half. 

Prediction 2  -   The Irish have some success on the ground. Not much. Maybe 100 yards rushing total, which is good for the Irish against USC, but not good enough to win the game without major help elsewhere. 

Prediction 3  -  If USC covers the spread (which is likely), Charlie Weis will be fired on Monday evening. 

Prediction 4  -  If Notre Dame wins this game (impossible . . . nearly), Charlie Weis will enjoy success in the next few years and fully coach out his 10 year contract through the 2015 season. 

Prediction 5  -  Brian Kelly (head coach of Cincinnati) will be hired as the new Notre Dame coach as soon as next weekend if Prediction 3 comes true.

Some meaty predictions there. I have been thinking about the Weis situation all week, and I just think if the Irish get blown out, Weis is gone. His recruiting has been good, but losing winnable games and getting blown out by a rival just dont fly in South Bend. Our schedule was weak this season, and 7 wins was really the basement for this team. 6-6 would have been 5-7 or 4-8 with a more difficult schedule. 

Score prediction  . . . 

IRISH   13     USC  38

USC does not cover the spread, but soundly beat the Irish. Weis's fate is completely up in the air with this score, maybe with odds of fire/stay being 60/40%. Firing Weis after a blowout is completely fair, but definitely will hurt our recruiting and be a painful divorce from our program. But the firing would be justified and the right move. 

Go Irish, beat Trojans. 

3 Plays

Poor coaching of the fundamentals rarely changes "next year" when players have more experience, or more big time recruits fill the roster. These 3 plays from the Syracuse game in particular convict Weis and his staff of something I am not sure he can repair or change - the inability to teach fundamental football skills to young players.


Play 1 - 1st quarter, 3rd down and 4, third play of the game. Irish try to convert a third and medium with a pass from the shotgun.





The middle linebacker blitzes and hits Clausen completely untouched. Actually, there was not even an attempt to touch him. Inexplicably, left guard Eric Olsen does not even look the potential blitzer, instead helping out Turkovich, the left tackle. Errors like this typically occur when an offensive lineman has to choose between two blitzers to block, not whether to block anyone at all. This mental error for a junior this late in the year falls on the coaching staff, period. I hold Olsen accountable, but ultimately the teacher should be good enough to guide a pupil away from such simple yet potentially disasterous mistakes like this one. Weis is GUILTY AS CHARGED.


Play 2 - 1st Quarter, 4th and 2, in Syracuse territory. The Irish go for it with a goalline formation running play.





Its not a bad move to go for it, considering how long the field goal try may have been. But when the offensive line misses assignments (who is #67 attempting to block?) or just getting blown up (can I help you up off the ground former 5 star recruit #74 Sam Young?), there is just FAIL written all over the offensive line play and the playcall. Even if the aforementioned players make their blocks, the safeties would have likely snuffed the play out for a 1 yard gain, at best. Either the players are poorly coached and do not have the mental and physical tools to execute the play, or Weis should have known better and passed the ball. Either way, Weis is GUILTY AS CHARGED.


Play 3 - The first defensive play after play #2 above. Syracuse goes for the jugular after their big defensive stop.





Syracuse uses the running back in the shotgun, fakes a handoff, and then throws a pass downfield. I realize these plays can be difficult to defend. A good coaching staff realizes that a "nothing to lose" Syracuse will try to improve its longshot status of winning this game via trick plays or big shots down the field. What better time to try a big play than after your defense just made a momentum grabbing stop? Football people know that gaining a large chunk of yards or scoring a touchdown right after your defense gets a turnover can multiply the momentum just gained tenfold. No one knows this as well as Charlie, who routinely calls a play action downfield pass on the first play after a big interception by the Irish. If a coach had simply mentioned, "Watch the big trick play or deep pass", I would imagine the defense would have been defended this play. The Irisih defense was completely unprepared and this play should have been an easy touchdown for Syracuse. Weis is GUITLY AS CHARGED.


I realize that there are numerous other good examples of plays from the game that I likely missed. I also realize that players don't always play like they are coached. But at some point, we have to realize that good teams like Florida, Oklahoma, and Alabama don't have many plays like this. Bad teams do. And when Notre Dame is considered "bad", someone has to be held accountable.