'Stache Invasion

Coming off a dominating victory against Boston College that the Irish had to have, Pitt awaits Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday at 330pmET. The Irish should have some confidence after handily beating an opponent- albeit a team without a passing game that the Irish rightly were expected to drill.


The key question in my mind is - Can the Irish dominate a solid opponent in Notre Dame Stadium? Night games on the road seem to bring out the best in the Irish - maybe not always wins, but at least solid efforts and close losses. Notre Dame stadium is where the Irish have struggled against both superior and inferior opponents - never able to beat anyone handily. The missing ingredient seems to be emotion - which is easy to muster up when you are on the road and at night than it has been for the Irish at home. While certainly Notre Dame Stadium is a very tame environment to play in, its up to the coaches and players to find that emotion, that intensity from somewhere. Otherwise playing afternoon games in Notre Dame Stadium will continue to be a drag. 


Pitt at home will be a great test for the Irish - who will have to play solid football to win this game. If the Irish play inconsistent or average football, they will lose another close one against a Pitt team that has some talent. But if the Irish can get fired up and amp up the level of intensity & emotion - like Brian Kelly was seen displaying on the sidelines during the Boston College game - Notre Dame should win this game by 10 points. Funny how Brian Kelly's most animated game all season was probably our best as a team. Expect a fired up coach that hopefully will be an example for the rest of the team come Saturday. 


Pitt is a similar but better team than Boston College - with two proven running backs and some defensive talent all over. Pitt has trouble on both lines, as well as at QB. Expect the Irish to guard against the Pitt rushing attack, while playing soft coverage on their top WR Jonathan Baldwin. Whether Pitt can muster a passing attack will be the key to the game for both teams. If the Irish can keep Pitt under 20 points, the Irish should win; otherwise, all bets are off, and the game will likely go down to the wire. 


I predict an average offensive day from the Irish - but a scoreboard that looks better because of some big defensive and special teams play. A comfortable win, but not terribly impressive given how poorly Pitt has played this season. Like my dress shirt size, I expect a score of . . . 


IRISH   33      PITT  17


(straight up pick, 3-2 for the year, ATS 2-2-1)

Life or Death

This week, safety Harrison Smith described the upcoming game this weekend against Boston College on Saturday night as "Life or Death". Much has been made, both positively and negatively, about this quote. Is this a new attitude, or is it just a platitude? After getting soundly beaten by Stanford last weekend, I hope its the former. All I will say about the Stanford game is that Stanford's physicality will help them go a long way - and that Notre Dame's lack of fire and ability to adjust to a drop 8 defense was upsetting. More on the drop 8 defense later. 


Whether this game is life or death, the BC game is certainly the beginning of a winnable streak of games. At BC, then Pitt at home, followed by Western Michigan, Navy, and Tulsa. Would last year's Irish team win 4 or 5 of these games, despite better talent and speed than each of those 5? No. Will this year's team? The answer to that question, in my mind, will give Brian Kelly his first "grade" from Notre Dame fans. 


One concerning trend out of the Stanford game was our reaction to Stanford's defensive adjustment to a drop 8 coverage. Stanford played a man to man cover 1 defense early, and Notre Dame marched right down the field. Stanford responded with a defense that they hadn't played in 2 years - a drop 8 zone coverage, where 3 defensive lineman rush, while all 8 other players spread out in a zone, facing the QB. The obvious strength of that defense is defending the long and intermediate passes with max coverage - while the weakness of the defense is against the run. Unfortunately, the Irish were unable to exploit this coverage - looking unprepared and lost offensively for much of the game. Until the Irish can move the ball on this type of defense, expect it more and more. Funny, its very similar to the cover 2 defense that Boston College employs and has employed for many years. Whether the Irish can adjust to this defense - as Brian Kelly has alluded to - will be a major quiz along the path towards Kelly's grade. 


The saving grace in this game for the Irish is that Boston College is likely starting a true freshman QB in his first career start Saturday night. After 0 points last week, Boston College's offense is clearly stuck in neutral. When the immobile offense goes up against the charitable defense, who knows what will happen. The Irish have an opportunity to score 24 points and have that potentially be enough - which recently is a rare situation.
Amazingly, the Irish have played quite well on the road the past two seasons - losing but playing arguably better than at home. Given the Boston College offense's troubles, and the Irish hopefully desperate enough for a win, there is no reason the Irish shouldn't win this football game. 


Look for Manti Te'o (21 tackles last week) - to have another MONSTER day for the second week in a row against the BC offense, likely with multiple sacks and at least one fumble caused. Expect ugly offense, with the Irish winning this game on defense and special teams - not needing much offense. 


IRISH  24     BOSTON COLLEGE  10


(Straight up 2-2, ATS 1-2-1)

The Cardinal: A Vatican Subordinate

Saturday the Irish play the team that I believe is the best team on their 12 game schedule - the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal is #18 in the country, and has killed mediocre competition in 3 games thus far. 35-0 against UCLA, 68-24 over Wake Forest, and a thumping of Sacramento State. At the helm of the Stanford Cardinal is the player Mel Kiper Jr ranks as the #2 ranked player for the NFL Draft (as a sophomore), quarterback Andrew Luck. Understandably the Irish are 6pt underdogs at home. 


Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority,  with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs).  But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played. 


So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average.  Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense.  I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course. 


With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.


Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford. 


Vatican Smoke Prediction:


IRISH    38     STANFORD   35


(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)

Michigan St Preview

A late game preview from the Vatican for tonights game pitting the Irish against the Spartans up in East Lansing (many of you might get this via email on Sunday, but note that it was submitted at 640pm ET). Here's to my prediction not being accurate.

This series has been crazy, with 8 of the last 12 being decided by 7 points or less. I do not expect this game to be a blowout either way - perhaps another classic in the series. The Spartans have experience at all offensive positions, and a fantastic run game - while the Irish have plenty of offense themselves. On defense, the Spartans have some vulnerability to the pass, but overall have an edge on the Irish defense. Combine that with a rowdy night crowd up in East Lansing, and you have a Spartans team poised to beat up on the Irish on national television.

The last 3 night games in East Lansing have all ended the same way - with an Irish victory. When faced with very difficult circumstances the past few years, the Irish have responded - certainly making most every game close, but not being able to convert the majority of these games into victories. I expect the Irish to make this game close, and whether or not the Irish can get a stop or score late in the game will be the difference or lack of difference in the game. Irish fans long for the day when the Irish close in the 4th quarter - making that big stop or getting that big score that finishes off the opposition.

I am not sure tonight is that night. While I think the game will be close, and I would not be surprised by a sound Irish victory, I think Michigan St's experience will be the difference tonight. Lets hope Im wrong:

Michigan St  31    Notre Dame  27

(record 1-1 straight up, 0-1-1 ATS)

Bend, not Break

For some time, its been said that Notre Dame's defense was a bend but not break unit. I think that term applies to every bad defense - but should it? Last two year's have seen Notre Dame defenses ranked in the bottom third of division 1-A - which to me, is a broken, bent over defense. While the personnel on defense has dictated a possible bend not break strategy as a solution, Jon Tenuta (ex Irish DC) did not take that approach with his planning - preferring aggression and blitzing on all downs. The past two years felt like Jon Tenuta was trying to beat someone up with a pillow - swinging hard and often, but forgetting that he didn't have the tools to execute.

After one game, and through the many preseason and midweek interviews of Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco, the Irish truly appear to be a defense looking to mitigate its weaknesses, and reacting to the offense - rather than ignoring them and trying to dictate to the difficult to stop spread offenses in college football. Against Purdue, the Irish avoided giving up the big play or giving up much against the run - essentially shifting their weakness towards the short pass.

How will the Irish adapt their defensive approach to the Wolverines on Saturday at 330pm ET? I expect a similar approach - preventing the deep pass or long run, while giving up short passes - which in Michigan's case, are often short QB runs. Look for Michigan to get their yards and their points, but for the Irish defensive approach in the red zone to be the difference in the game. Giving Denard Robinson a huge spread out zone inside the red zone - forcing him to make a difficult pass, while also watching his every move - should give the Irish a good chance for an interception or holding Michigan to a few field goals.

On offense, I don't see how Michigan can cover ND's WRs. They couldn't last year, having one of the worst pass defenses the Irish faced all season (Navy was light years better against the pass). This year, Michigan has only 2 scholarship CBs. The question is not if Irish WRs will be open, but whether we can protect Crist and whether he'll hit them. I think a very good, not great day from Crist, combined with another balanced, workman like day from the running game, will give the Irish all the points they need.

With the weather potentially wet - look for the passing games to become easier, while the running games become more difficult. Advantage Irish. Its also nice to know that the Irish special teams are likely going to be prepared and able to execute - whereas the 2009 team gave up critical field position and a TD return to Michigan. The underdog performs well in this series, so nothing should be taken for granted; but on paper and based on what we know about Brian Kelly and his staff, I see a great opportunity for the Irish.

Prediction:


IRISH   31    MICHIGAN  20

(For the season, 1-0 in predictions straight up, 0-0-1 against the spread)

Purdue Game Preview

The Brian Kelly era begins Saturday at 330pm ET on NBC against the Boilermakers of Purdue. Typically a new coach is always given some time to get his system in order before the expectations rise; however, many Irish fans see a manageable schedule and a fairly talented roster at BK's disposal, changing things a bit for a hyped up fan base.

No matter which way you slice it, Notre Dame is a more talented team than Pittsburgh. Just ask Scouts, Inc. & ESPN, here. The Irish have the "edge" in 7 of 9 possible categories, and is favored by 11 points. While certainly this game is clearly winnable for Notre Dame, Purdue is still a Big 10 program that was within a field goal and a minute of beating Oregon last year - and actually beat Ohio State by 12. Brian Kelly should win his opener, but he better hope the troops are ready.

The history of this matchup points towards the Irish. The team favored has won by more than 13 points in 6 of the last 7 years - with last years last minute TD by the Irish being the exception. Purdue traditionally has done very poorly in Notre Dame Stadium - winning just twice since 1974. Purdue also has to deal with a new QB making his first road start, as well coach Danny Hope visiting Notre Dame Stadium for the first time.

For Purdue to win . . . turnovers & Marve. Marve will have to play up to his recruiting billing, making plays with his feet and getting the ball to Purdue's strong WR corp. The Boilers will have to win the turnover battle to have a chance in this game - with Marve leading the way.

For Notre Dame to win . . . contain Marve and run the ball. With Purdue losing its top back from last year, as well as its #2 in an offseason injury, the running game likely will not be overpowering. A weakness last year for the Irish was defending the running QB - so lets hope the Irish have fixed the issue with a running QB. Making Marve sit in the pocket and pass should give the Irish some chances to make a big play. Running the ball against Purdue last year was not an issue - so I expect the Irish to have success again on the ground and opening up Brian Kelly's passing game even more.

Brian Kelly teams are not shy or timid - and the offenses go full speed trying to score as quickly as possible. Look for Notre Dame to have control with an early lead - coasting the rest of the game. Winning the turnover battle and special teams game, along with a few big plays from Michael Floyd and the shift slot WR Theo Riddick, will give BK the dominating opening win that he wants. Look for Purdue to have serious issues defending anything Notre Dame does - as well as Notre Dame #2s to get some action.

Original Prediction:   ND 34  Purdue 24

Gameweek Prediction:   Irish  38  Purdue 20

Waiting

Many people have asked me this week what I thought about the UConn loss. Others have made statements around me like "Man, that UConn loss has got to be the worst loss in ND history". Nearly all of the people that make these comments or ask questions about the loss, quite frankly, just don't "get it". 


Notre Dame is waiting for a new football coach. One game here, another there, they don't matter as much as who will be heading the program in the next week. Watching the UConn game was the least frustrating and most peaceful viewing of a Notre Dame game that I have ever had. Rooting for the Irish to win is a given - but losing to UConn would only make the coaching change more inevitable. Moving on with a new coach is what we need - and beating UConn & Stanford would have been some momentum in the opposite direction. That's why the UConn game was so stress free for me - there was benefit no matter what the outcome. And don't downplay UConn  -  these guys have a solid football team that have lost 3 games in the final 30 seconds to good teams. 

So what's the outlook on new coaches? Hopefully we will know more in a weeks time. I think that other than Jon Gruden, the candidate must have a proven head coaching track record in college. Brian Kelly (pictured), Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Gary Patterson, and Paul Johnson all fit that bill. Make no mistake about it - while the ND job will attract tons of very tough attention and pressure, ND is still a place where you can win - and win next season. Here is a very scientific formula for you:  A new defensive minded coach + returning talent + recruiting (85% of commitments said they will keep their pledges unless a crazy hire is made) + the fact that all 6 losses were close games (4pts, 7pts, 2pts, 5pts, 3pts, whatever to Stanford) + another favorable schedule in 2010  =  a great chance to win 8 games next year. Having an average defense would have won the Irish 9 games, maybe more this season. Just think if Charlie could have ever gotten a defense  -  he'd still be our coach next year. 


For Charlie's sake, I hope the Irish come out to play for him against Stanford. The Cardinal run game is going to be tough to stop, so if I were the Irish, I would come out guns blazing and let Jimmy do what he does - throw it around the yard. Certainly it would make sense for us to establish a rushing attack. We will never be able to truly rush the ball with authority while we have such a good QB and WR core. Lets do what we are good at (passing the rock), which happens to be Stanford's biggest weakness (pass defense). However, I don't expect this game to show us anything new about the Irish or Charlie Weis. Another close game and frustrating loss awaits Irish fans (as I predicted in the preseason, a loss to Stanford):


IRISH     27      STANFORD   34


(Vatican Smoke is 7-4 picking the winners, and 7-4 against the spread as well) 


Remember this  -  things are never as bad or as good as they seem. There are some talented young players on our team waiting for a new coach, and some small improvements could have made a 3 to 4 game difference this season. We arent as far away from respectability as the media will have you believe. Brighter days are ahead. 


Have a great thanksgiving!! There will be tons of good stuff to discuss in the coming two weeks, so stay tuned Irish fans. 

UConn Game Preview

Tomorrow the Irish unfortunately play a game that is quite possibly the least anticipated game in recent memory. The game is nothing more than an afterthought at this point, with the current coaching administration seemingly on its way out. The game versus UConn is supposed to be a solid November matchup that is meaningful for bowl aspirations and for seniors (its senior day). Unfortunately the game has lost all luster because most fans don't see anything new or exciting come from the Weis coaching staff in game 61 as we've come to fear in the first 60 iterations. 


Instead of a game preview, here's a different take on the game tomorrow. Being senior day, there have been some good writeups like this one about the current senior class - Weis's first full recruiting class that he signed in February of 2006. This 28 man class was the class that got the recruiting train rolling for Weis, with the class finishing as the #8 ranked class in the nation. This class marked the beginning of what was going to be the journey towards the return to national top 10. Unfortunately, the class did more for our hopes than it did on the field. The 2006 recruiting class embodies the Weis era in a lot of ways. Each started out with success and was instantly a symbol of the continuous improvement that was surely ahead. Being ranked #8 as a recruiting class, the sentiment was that these guys would lay the foundation for the future, and Weis would recruit even better once he built upon this foundation. Just like for Weis, the promise of this class slowly started to erode. An astounding number of players transfered - 10 - including the loss of 5 four star players (interestingly enough, one 4 star player will be suiting up as the starting QB for Connecticut, Zach Frazier, who lost out to Jimmy Clausen in 2007). Great article covering this class in the Chicago Tribune by Brian Hamilton, here. 


Just like the 2006 recruiting class, can't blame everything on Coach Weis. Ultimately he will take the blame - because he is the coach and the "buck stops there". But certainly Weis was handed a top heavy roster that collapsed in 2007 and 2008, based on the lack of recruiting by his predecessor. The 2006 class was mostly good kids that loved Notre Dame - mostly honest and hard working, - just like Coach Weis. The class and coach that were supposed to be the savior are not terrible failures, but I'd prefer to view each as honest efforts that came up short. Sure, thats going soft on them. But the damage has been done - do we really need to keep pointing the finger, dancing over their grave? On senior day, these 2006 class seniors deserve their senior day; Lord knows they have been through a wild 4 years. Just like Weis, they deserve to leave with dignity, not indignation. 


I hope the Irish kick UConn's ass tomorrow - and play their best game of the season. However, as much as I want to see Weis and these seniors leave on a decent high note, I cannot bring myself to expect a breakthrough performance for Weis in game 60, or these seniors in game 48. Prediction:


Notre Dame    27        UConn    24


(Vatican Smoke record straight up picking the Irish games is 7-3 on the season; 6-4 against the spread)

Pitt Preview

The Irish travel to #8 ranked Pittsburgh Saturday night (7pm, ABC) in what could be the most important game of Charlie Weis's career. The Pitt Panthers are 8-1 and have control of their own destiny in the Big East conference. Pitt is very talented and will be one of the if not the best team the Irish have faced all season. Yours truly will be on hand for the game at Heinz Field, which should be around 40 degrees at gametime.

Due to traveling, not much time available for a preview. During the week reading about Pitt, it sounds like this program is really confident and ready for the Irish. The Irish are either going to be inspired or scared, and I'm not sure which. Jimmy and company should be able to move the ball a bit on the Panthers, who have a great defensive line that is near tops in the country in sacks. Pitt has been efficient offensively, balanced with the pass and the run. This has the feel of a shootout in the 30s, a close game won by the team who gets the ball last. Turnovers will obviously be key - an area the Irish have performed well in every game except last week. I expect the Irish defense and defensive line in particular to thrive upon facing a pro style offensive attack instead of the option attack.

Flat out, this has the makings of being a great football game. I expect the Irish to play one of their better games of the year, but the game to still be close and in doubt. I have to give the edge because their front 4 should be able to rush Clausen  -  allowing more defenders to drop back into coverage. The home crowd and tension building under the Weis coaching situation will also favor the Panthers; a superhuman effort from Jimmy Clausen might not be enough. Prediction:

Pitt    34     Notre Dame  31

(Vatican Smoke is 6-3 picking ND games straight up, and 5-4 against the spread)

Pass the Alka-Selzer

Navy and Notre Dame meet for the 83rd time this Saturday at 1:30pm central time in Notre Dame Stadium. The Irish hold the all time record over the middies at 71-10-1, although the streak of 43 straight wins was snapped in 2007. Navy enters the game off a difficult loss last week to Temple (27-24), but still sports the same record as the Irish (6-2).

Game preview this week will be a little bit different than the "what to watch for". Navy and Notre Dame know each other very well, and typically don't surprise each other. Each year, many Irish fans have a little bit of anxiety about this game (at least I do). There are plenty of reasons Navy will be competitive and could beat us, while there are also plenty of reasons this game shouldn't be close. Both sides are compelling. Lets take a look at each:

Reasons Navy could win . . . 

• 2007 & 2008  -  The Middies beat the Irish in 2007, 46-44 (OT), the last time they played in Notre Dame Stadium. While the Irish were favored to win that game, Navy featured one of its best offenses ever that season, while the 2007 Irish were possibly the worst Irish team in 50 years. Navy knows they can beat Notre Dame . . . which they almost did last year, having the ball in the final minute in Irish territory down by 6.
• Defense  -  The 2009 Navy Defense is the best defense the Middies have had in years. Currently ranked #27 in the country in defensive yards allowed (ahead of Boston College, USC, and Virginia Tech), allowing only 316 yards per game. Navy is balanced but better against the pass, ranking 23rd in the country by air, 59th in defending by ground. Last year the Irish pounded the Middies, who will undoubtedly employ a bend but not break approach against the Irish passing attack. Problem is that with both teams running the ball, the game shortens, and mistakes are amplified . . . 
• Time of Possession  -  Navy is 2nd in the country in time of possession, while the Irish are a very close 5th in the country in TOP. This will be an interesting battle for the clock. If the Middies can win the time of possession, look for this game to be close. Win the TOP, throw in a fumble and some onside kicks . . . and its 2008 all over again. Navy will be more disciplined than you at all times, and will be ready for your mistake. 

Reasons Notre Dame cruises to victory . . . 

• 2007 & 2008  -  Same reason helping both teams? In 2007, Navy's offense was prolific, averaging 350 yards a game rushing; yet Navy needed two point conversions, overtime, and some crazy Irish turnovers to win the game against THE worst Notre Dame team in decades. Navy's offense is not as good this year; and the Irish, well, we've improved a bit since then. In 2008, Notre Dame dominated the football game. Leading 27-7 with 3 minutes to go, on the 5 yard line heading in, the Irish looked to be finishing off the most dominating win over Navy in a number of years. A fumble, a few crazy plays, and then two consecutive onsides kick recoveries in the final 2:30 made the game closer than it was. The Irish only gave up 11 first downs last year, completely dominating the middies until the panic struck in the final 3 minutes. How much has changed?
• Rushing Attack  -  The Irish finally have a respectable rushing offense, ranked #59 in the country this season. Last year, the Irish racked up 230 yards rushing with last year's below average attack. While the Middies have improved greatly on defense, the Irish should be able to get to 200 yards rushing without breaking a sweat. Remember, Charlie Weis is 20-0 when he outrushes his opponent. If the Irish outrush the middies, which is very possible, it will take some crazy plays, turnovers, and onsides kicks for the Middies to win. 
• Onsides Kicks  -  While the Middies may have some other tricks up their sleeves, the Irish are not going to be caught off guard and give up 2 straight on sides kicks to Navy. Weis has put his hands teams through all types of on sides kicks in practice this week, which should give the Irish more confidence if the game goes that way. Remember, if the Irish get the first onsides kick last year, the game ends 27-14. The kicks were the key to the Middies fighting back and scaring the sh*t out of Irish fans. 

Last year, Weis called 19 passes and 51 rushes. Tomorrow, expect more of the same, as the Irish try to pound it down Navy's throat on the ground, turning the tables on the Middies. Shorten the game for the Middies, giving them a taste of their own medicine. But this year, the Irish will finish the job, not turning the ball over and missing onsides kicks like crazy. Weis will pass if Navy allows, but he will gladly beat the Middies to a pulp on the ground if Navy wants to drop 8 guys into coverage against Clausen, Floyd, Tate, and Rudolph. Look for the Irish defense to have another solid effort against Navy, but give up a few longer passes early before adjusting and locking down. 

Official Prediction:  Don't bet on this game. The Middies have covered the spread an amazing 9 times in a row within Notre Dame stadium. The Irish are better than the Middies by two TDs, and that's what I am predicting. I wouldn't bet on this game if I were you.

Irish  31   Navy  17

(Vatican Smoke's season record picking the winner straight up, 6-2; against the spread, 4-4)

Defend the Irish Alamo!

In a kinda weird event, the Irish will face off against Washington State on Saturday evening in San Antonio, TX at the Alama Dome (6:30pm central, NBC). The Irish are favored by 28 points over the Cougars, who are ranked in the "1 hundred and teens" in every major defensive category. While the game lacks much appeal from a matchup standpoint, the appeal and success/failure of the neutral site home game will be interesting to evaluate. Unfortunately the opponent is not either a) local or b) attractive, so I imagine the results of "success" of this game will be a mixed bag.

This game is the first of the former AD Kevin White-inspired "7-4-1" schedule - with the 1 being a neutral, off site "home" game. Under the 7-4-1 scheduling technique, the Irish intend to schedule 1 game per year in a major media market - ideally one with a pro football team (facility) and no college teams (opportunity). Additionally, the Irish would definitely prefer to schedule these games in areas that would aid in recruiting.

San Antonio is a perfect site for recruiting, being located near the major markets of Houston and Dallas in Texas - the state that produced the most division 1-A football players last year. Amazingly, Texas is home to only 3 players currently on scholarship for the Irish. There are more players from Tennessee and North Carolina individually than from Texas. The reason? Mack Brown and the Texas Longhorns, who typically offer top juniors in February each year, demanding their verbal by threatening to revoke the offer if not immediately accepted. In addition to the strong Irish recruiting pipelines to talent rich California and Florida, the Irish must establish some recruiting presence in Texas. Three or four prospects a year would be respectable and expected given the talent level and volume of players in the state. This game is a great way to get some exposure in the Longhorn state, as Notre Dame is allowed to invite as many high school players as possible to the game; a good number of talented juniors (class of 2011) will be on hand Saturday night.

Now, on to the game. I'm not going to spend a lot of time previewing the particulars of the game. Here are a few stats for you about the Cougars:

• Defense rankings (out of 120 Div 1-A nationally) - Rush defense (114th), Pass defense (118th), Total Defense (118th). 
• Offense rankings  -  Rushing offense (116th), Passing Offense (55th), Total Offense (111th)
• Passing offense looks decent right? But when its paired with the worst (120th) pass protection in the nation (5 sacks per game), that means two things: a) the freshman QB Lobberstael can pass a little bit, especially considering his numbers with that offensive line; and b) the Irish blitzing front is going to have some big time opportunities for a few big plays. 
• Washington St's only win this season (1-6) was against SMU at home - which they won 30-27 in OT.
• The Cougars scored 20 or more only twice, with the 30 against SMU and 20 against Hawaii. 

Washington State probably thinks they can beat Notre Dame, and I don't blame anyone for thinking they can win. Bottom line is that they can't. The Irish are far too talented not to score 30 points against Wazzu, while the Cougs will be lucky to get 20 points.  Look for the Irish to use this game to work on and improve the running game that will be key down the stretch. Charlie mentioned he is taking twice the number of offensive lineman on the trip, and I expect him to use them all. The game is never in doubt - for once - but the Cougars add a late score against the 2nd team defense to cover the spread.

Prediction:

Notre Dame  38    Washington St  17

(Vatican Smoke is 5-2 picking winners straight up, but 3-4 against the spread)


Prediction #2  -  See you on the Riverwalk!!

Breaking the Other Streak . . .

While the Trojans win streak over the Irish (currently at 8 games) is more publicized, the Boston College streak is more painful; the Eagles have beaten the Irish an astounding and embarrassing 6 times in a row. Long considered the inferior Catholic school in all ways, Boston College has consistently played extremely well against the Irish, while the Irish arrive flat and uninspired. This matchup could be the perfect case of "a big game for them but not as much us"; nonetheless, the Irish have a Michigan St like streak that needs to be ended tomorrow at 2:30pm central time in Notre Dame Stadium (weather is highs in the mid 40s, very cloud, 40% chance of rain).

Boston College is a weird team this year. Well played games at home (28-21 over Florida St, 53-20 over NC State, 27-24 over Wake Forrest) with some terrible results on the road (loss 14-48 @ VTech and loss 7-25 @ Clemson) make the picture a bit murky. Certainly expect the Eagles to play well in Notre Dame Stadium, as they are quite comfortable there, winning 4 of their last 5 games in South Bend. Clearly the Boston College players and media treat this game almost like a bowl game - putting the Irish in a tough game every year.

BC is a strong rushing team, with a streaky QB. Last week, the Eagles rushed for 260 yards - 150 of which were via the "Wildcat" formation. The Irish are much improved against the run, holding the vaunted Trojans rushing offense to just 120 yards. Lots of that ground improvement has been at the expense of the passing defense. The Irish have demoted Free Safety Harrison Smith (#22 - Knoxville, TN) and have shaken things  up in the secondary. The unit is talented, and eventually just has to play better. Things in the back 4 can't get much worse, and I don't expect this BC passing attack to expedite that.

This game feels like another trap game for the Irish. Notre Dame consistently plays down to BC and Michigan St, largely because they are not one of the 2 or 3 marquee opponents on the schedule. The week after USC will certainly be a less intense and hyped atmosphere - a situation that will reveal the true character of this team.

To me, the true "character" of this team is fighting to the end - for which no lead is safe, and no deficit is either; unfortunately for my heart rate, I see another thriller coming - game decided late in the 4th quarter:

Notre Dame    42     Boston College  35

(Vatican Smoke is 4-2 predicting winners, 2-4 against the spread)

TROY

The Irish host the University of Southern California Trojans tomorrow at 2:30pm central time, nationally televised on NBC. Some great game preview and history information on UND.com, definitely worth the read. Interesting facts about the series and this season's game:

• ND leads the all time series over the Trojans, 42-33-5. Its been a streaky series - with USC winning the past 7 years
• Pete Carroll is 7-1 against Notre Dame, losing in 2001 to Bob Davie by a score of 27-16
• USC's loss in 2001 at Notre Dame Stadium, 27-16, is still the worst loss of the Pete Carroll era (!)
• USC has beaten the last 9 AP top 25 ranked teams they have played. ND is ranked #25 this week in the AP poll. 

Not too much needs to be said about the magnitude of this game - and no one person needs this win more than Coach Charlie Weis. If he can't beat the Trojans this year, with a high powered offense at home, in his 5th season, then when? USC may be a little bit down, but they are still a top 10 team that has owned our program for nearly the past decade. Programs that win games like this one often reap the benefits for years, via a renewed confidence. The tide turns with games like this one, should the servant rise up and beat the master. 

Ending the USC winning streak would be huge for not only Weis and QB Jimmy Clausen - but the residual effect of a win may be even bigger on future recruiting. Much like in 2005, the Irish have a recruiting visitor list for tomorrow that is "sickening". Many of these top recruits need to see more job stability for Weis before they commit. A win would stabilize the program and Weis's reign atop it. A loss - particularly a bad one - will crack the foundation. Might as well call Saturday "Judgement Day" for Weis and the program. 

Now, on to the game preview. When USC has the ball . . .

• USC's Offensive Line will impose their will  -  Man on man, the Irish defensive line cannot beat the Trojans star studded offensive line. That means the Irish are going to have to outscheme the Trojans, which is difficult but not impossible. USC is 17th in the country in rushing the ball, averaging 208 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. If the Irish surrender 200 yards rushing, its going to be difficult to win the game. 
• Will the Irish defense blitz?  Tenuta always tries to confuse the offensive line with blitzes and fake blitzes, in an effort to throw a wrench in the run game. This season, he has seemed to blitz too often, and has been too predictable. Tenuta is known for his play calling though, and he is flat out due for a brilliantly called defensive game. Blitzing in the right gap, on the right play, will be the way the Irish stop the USC rushing attack. Of course, the downside of blitzing is the vulnerability to the passing attack. USC has some very solid receivers in Damien Williams and Ronald Johnson, as well as solid receiving options at TE and FB. That's why blitzing at the right time is key. 
• The Irish must get the Trojans in tough 3rd downs  - Running the ball won't be the huge weapon it is for the Trojans if the Irish can get them in some 3rd and medium or longs. The Trojans are 113th in the country in 3rd down conversions, converting an abysmal 29% of them thru 5 games. Getting the Trojans in 3rd and 5 and longer will maximize the Irish defense's chance against the Men of Troy. 

When Notre Dame has the ball . . .

• Run the football . . . after we establish the pass  -  If the Irish gain 50 yards rushing or less, no chance of winning; 100 yards on the ground, and we'll have a shot at winning. If the Irish are able to gain 150 yards, look out. Unfortunately the Trojans are giving up only 65 yards per game on the ground, ranking 5th in the country. Unless some extraordinary things happen (turnovers, big plays, weird time of possession), the Irish are going to have to get more rushing yards than the USC defense is giving upon average. Remember, when Weis outrushes an opponent while coaching at Notre Dame, he is undefeated, 18-0. Likely the only way we run the ball over 100 yards is after we spread USC out and have some passing success. Expect some draws and misdirection, moreso than straight pound it at 'em. Hughes and Allen will have to break some tackles as well. 
• Spread it around in the passing game  -  Golden Tate is going to be more covered this game than ever before. Kyle Rudolph might be matched up with Taylor Mays, the 6'3" 230 pound beast safety that will be drafted in the top 10 in April. That means Shaq Evans, Robby Parris, and Duval Kamara - each taking reps as the WR opposite of Tate or in the slot - are going to have to step up. If those 3 guys don't combine for at least 7 catches, I don't see the Irish winning this game. Golden and Kyle will get their chances as well - and we must capitalize on them. Man to man coverage on either won't come on every play. 
• Patience  -  Jimmy has played almost perfectly this season, as every defense has been unable to keep up with Clausen. USC is going to bring athletes and coverages that will test Jimmy's patience a bit. Being patient and taking what the defense gives him will be critical - particularly since the Trojan offense is not a quick strike offense like in past years. The Irish will have to score plenty to win, no doubt, but I don't believe the Irish have to score a touchdown on every possession. Some of the best plays made in this game are going to be the plays where Jimmy hits the check down option, or throws the ball away. 

 

There are a lot of good stats out there, especially ones that start with "USC has outscored the Irish . . ." or "Notre Dame has failed to score (against USC) . . ."  No need to rehash all these stats that say the Irish can't beat the Trojans. Doubt certainly lives in the hearts and minds of many Irish fans. The close wins in games that shouldn't have been close were certainly thrilling, but also somewhat disheartening. Many will point towards the close wins over Michigan St, Purdue, and Washington as evidence that the Irish will fail against the Trojans; I say that hidden within the 3 victories lie our greatest strengths  -  experience winning close games, a quarterback who has led come from behind 4th quarter drives in each of the last 4 games, and timely defensive stops.   

These strengths propel the Irish to victory over the Trojans, in a great battle in cool weather. The Irish make one more play than the Trojans - as the Notre Dame Stadium fans, Notre Dame mystique, and the experience in close games give the Irish an edge. Not a perfect performance on the field for either team  -  but a perfect day for Notre Dame:

Notre Dame  31     USC  24

(Vatican Smoke's record - 4-1 straight up, 1-4 vs the spread)

If you're a fan of college football, I'd watch this one if I were you.

Michigan Game Preview

Hail! to the victors valiant

Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes

Hail! Hail! to Michigan

The leaders and best!

Hail! to the victors valiant

Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes

Hail! Hail! to Michigan,

The champions of the West!

As a blogger, I try to be impartial, objective, and to remove bias from my posts. Last week I picked Notre Dame to win but to struggle. Nevada was the perfect school to prepare a well thought out preview for - I had no feeling about the school previously, with minimal prior knowledge to skew my preparation. The same cannot be said for the week 2 opponent of the Irish - the University of Michigan Wolverines.

So lets go ahead and get this out of the way: I hate Michigan. Reading the chorus to their fight song makes me hate them even more. Seriously - has there ever been a more desperate and screaming attempt to say "We are better than you! We are the best! Look at us!"?

Every team has a rival that their fans "hate". In the sports world, "hate" is a much less powerful word than in real life. Of course I respect the University of Michigan (mostly), and definitely their tradition, fan base, stadium, and players. The parallel would not apply if I "hated" another human being. When it comes to "hate" for Notre Dame fans, only two schools really come to mind: Michigan and USC.

While USC has been our rival for a longer period of time, the Michigan rivalry has been more heated. Numerous times during the years, Michigan tried to stop the series of games between the teams, not playing the Irish for 36 years after being beaten by Notre Dame in 1943. "They need us more than we need them", the great Michigan coach Bo Schembechler said. When Knute Rockne and the Irish tried to join the Big 10 conference during the 20s, a blackball effect was orchestrated by Michigan AD Fielding Yost. Known as being anti-immigrant and anti-Catholic - both of which were applicable to Notre Dame - Yost even threatened other Big 10 teams that would play the Irish. Traveling outside the midwest was the answer for Notre Dame - and the end result is a national following, filled with inter-sectional rivalries like USC, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Navy, Army, etc. Please keep this history in mind as you root for the Irish on Saturday.

Now for a little bit of a game preview via keys to the game for the Irish.

When Michigan has the ball . . .

• Confusing the youngsters - Michigan will be starting a true freshman QB (Tate Forcier), and playing another in the speed Denard Robinson. Forcier is a great balance of throw and run for the spread offense, whereas Denard is more of a pure running threat. The Irish will give up some runs, but we must continue to blitz and throw confusing coverages in the hopes of a big play.
• Limit big plays on the ground - I feel confident about our ability to defend the deep pass against a younger QB and with our experienced/capable secondary. Nevada was able to get too many 9 to 10 yard runs, and we must find a way to slow down this attack from Michigan. Will be THE key to the game.

When the Irish have the ball . . .

• Get Michigan to respect the pass - Typically coaches establish the run, then pass. Today's college game requires an opposite approach, in my opinion. Until we pass Michigan out of their aggressive and capable front 7, the Irish will struggle to run the ball. Running the ball for the Irish to the tune of 150 yards will be essential in winning this game, whether is for big short yardage plays or just running some clock.
• Hit the Tight End - Kyle Rudolph is going to have some opportunities to make plays. Last year, the Irish threw up top on Michigan quite a bit with Golden Tate. I expect Michigan to prepare for the deep pass, and stop the run. That leaves Rudolph in 1 on 1 coverage against a linebacker or safety. We MUST exploit this expected tactic.

All hatred for the Wolverines aside, this will be a great football game. The underdog does incredibly well, so I would rather the Wolverines be slight favorites. The Irish must start winning and dominating some games like this - on the road, against a quality opponent - if we are going to be a BCS caliber program. Time to put up, or shut up. And I think they do.

Vatican Smoke prediction:

Notre Dame 31 Michigan 24

Jimmy Clausen throws for 3 TDs, including his first INT of the season. The Irish get an interception returned for a TD on an errant pass from Forcier for the 4 TD, and a late FG to comfort the masses by Freshman Nick Tausch.

Have a great weekend, and GO IRISH!

Nevada Game Preview

The Irish take on Nevada on Saturday to open up the 2009 season. If you haven't been following the blog during August, check out the 10 positional previews here, as well as the season prediction post here. The positional previews are great for an overview of each position, incorporating tidbits from fall camp. Please check them out and let us know whether you enjoyed them.

Nevada is not the pushover that they may sound to the casual college football fan. But make no doubt about it - the Irish are the more talented team and should win this game soundly. Unfortunately, the recent Irish squads lose too many games they shouldn't, and Nevada has many of the components needed to pull off a shocker this weekend. The components that could help them win are . . .

• Experienced Quarterback - Colin Kaepernick is one of only 5 players in college football history to rush for a 1000 yards and throw for 2000 in a single season. He is also one of only a few to throw AND rush for 20TDs in a season. The redshirt junior is 6' 6" and 220 pounds of Quarterbacking efficiency. Many compare him to Vince Young, with a better arm (drafted in the MLB draft this past year as a pitcher, did not sign). The Irish are going to have to respect his rushing ability, while also defending against his improving passing skills. From a preseason perspective, Kaepernick is the most feared QB on the Irish schedule - easily.
• Different yet Disciplined Offense - Nevada runs an offense called the "Pistol". The QB lines up in a shotgun formation - one yard closer to the center than a normal shotgun. The additional space allows a running back to line up behind the QB, not alongside. The ball is snapped to the QB, giving the benefits of a shotgun while also maintaining a downhill rushing approach with the RB in the backfield. The playcalling blends an I-Form straight ahead rushing attack with elements of the spread and the option. A querky offense that can confuse a more talented team and give yourself a chance to win.
• Experienced Coach - Chris Ault has now coached Nevada 23 seasons over 33 years during 3 different stints. Ault was inducted to the college football hall of fame in 2001, and has shown an ability to adapt his approach to give Nevada the best chance to win games against bigger more powerful programs. His teams have finished the last 5 seasons with a winning record and a bowl game appearance. A victory like this would easily be the "biggest victory in Nevada history and of Ault's career", according to a Reno journalist I read earlier this week (sorry no link).
• Pass Rush - From Tim Prister on UND.com: "Nevada boasts the most productive defensive end tandem returning to the college game in '09. Juniors Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch combined for 21.5 sacks and 36 tackles for lost yardage - as sophomores! Basped - 6-foot-6, 240 pounds - has the 'measurables' that NFL scouts crave. Moch - 6-foot-1, 245 pounds - led the Wolf Pack in sacks last year with 11.5 (to Basped's 10)." Yikes.

Notre Dame has some advantages as well:

• Passing Attack - The Irish return their top 3 passing targets from last year, as well as a junior QB looking to finally reach his potential. The offensive line is back en masse and ready to apply new coach Frank Verducci's techniques. There is no reason the Irish should not have passing success against the team with the dead last ranked pass defense in the country in 2008. 300 yards passing should be almost guaranteed. 380 yards for Clausen through the air is the prediction.
• Time to Prepare for "the Pistol" - "The Pistol" is an offense, not a shaggy haired legendary basketball player. Described above, this complicated offense takes time to prepare for. Having 2 weeks of nothing but Nevada game prep is definitely an advantage to our defense. Certainly the Irish were not be able to replicate the efficiency and speed of the Nevada offense in practice, but the more practice reps against a funky formation, the better.
• Talented Special Teams - Notre Dame's special teams had an overall banner year last year, despite an inconsistent field goal kicker. Top ranked kickoff coverage in the country, and top 30 in punt defense. Even more young athletes have been added to the mix, including a talented freshman kicker in Nick Tausch (who beat out senior Brandon Walker). Nevada was terrible in 2008 on kickoffs in particular - both returning (101st in the country) and return defense (113th). Punting wasn't much better, covering 62nd best and returning 99th best. Special Teams should be an area where our depth should be a major advantage. Our return units are in the good hands of freshman Theo Riddick (kickoffs) and the electrifying Golden Tate (punts). Look for the Irish to have early success in the kickoff return game, returning the opening kick to near midfield.
• Experienced Secondary - The Irish have 4 returning starters in the secondary - easily the deepest unit on the team (Free Safety Harrison Smith started at outside linebacker last year, replacing David Bruton who departed to the NFL). Currently the #3 CB on the roster in Darrin Walls was the best cover corner on the team in 2007. Check out the season previews for our safety and cornerback positions. Our defensive plan is likely to let our cornerbacks cover Nevada WRs 1 on 1, allowing the safeties to creep up and help the front slow down Kaepernick. We have the talent to do match up with their wideouts.

In the season prediction post, I predicted Notre Dame would win this game. I think the game is going to be exciting, yet not a blowout. Nevada will remain within striking distance, but the Irish will finish the game winning by a comfortable enough margin. Notre Dame's athleticism limits big plays from Nevada, while the Wolfpack offense does have success moving the ball. Some big red zone stops and a few turnovers limit the Wolfpack points, while the Irish return game sets the Irish offense up with great field position.

Irish 38 Nevada 27

A few more miscellaneous predictions: Jimmy Clausen throws 3 TDs, no interceptions, with 380 yards passing. Armando Allen has 1 TD rushing and 1 receiving, while Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph each contribute with a pass catch for a TD. The opening toss is won by Notre Dame, and we elect to receive. Theo Riddick, true freshman, returns the opening kick to the 50 yard line. 3 plays later, Kyle Rudolph catches a pass down the seam for the first Irish TD of the 2009 season.

Since the spread is -14pts (Irish favored), I am predicting the Irish will not cover. My other college football picks of the week are Tulsa -13.5 tonight vs Tulane, Wake Forest -2 vs Baylor, and Memphis +17 vs Ole Miss. Have a great Labor Day weekend and GO IRISH!

Somewhere Over the Rainbow . . .

For those that read this blog, you are familiar with my game "predictions". I predict the outcome of the game, and a few significant things that happened. Then I check my predictions after the game. More than just specific predictions, I try to really discuss what the story of the game will be. If I pick Jimmy to have a good game passing, or the Irish defense to have a field day. So when reading my specific predictions, enjoy them for what they are, which is mostly a "feel" for how the game will go for the Irish. Now onto my "predictions".

Tomorrow night, at 7pm central time on ESPN, America will be opening presents, at church, or watching the Irish play Hawaii in the Sheraton Hawaii bowl. The Irish have been in Honolulu since Friday, but there hasn't been much "buzz" coming stateside. For one, everyone is in the Christmas mood. Second, the real "bowls" don't start until New Years Eve.

What has been filtering back through the news wires is a sense of how BIG this game is for Hawaii. Numerous papers and persons are saying "this is the biggest game in Hawaii history, including last year's historic BCS Sugar Bowl appearance." Yikes, not good for the Irish. The Warriors are excited by two things about this game; first, the Irish are very beatable. I will not further dissect this. Second, the game is on prime time on ESPN, and more people will be watching this game than the Sugar Bowl last year (ie. Notre Dame is playing).

So when I tell you I am trying to predict how the game will go, the fact that this game has become the Super Bowl for Hawaii football certainly factors in.

• Prediction 1 - The Irish defense will play another solid "bend but not break" game, giving up 250 yards total offense and 24 points. Hawaii is not a great offense like recent years, as stated in my post just below with all of ND and Hawaii's stat rankings for the season (check it out). Hawaii's offensive average this season is 345 yards per game, so holding them to 250 is more than we should need.
  
• Prediction 2 - Maurice Crum goes out in style, with 1 fumble recovery and 1 big interception. Maurice Crum has been a 4 year starter and the heart and soul of this team. A two time captain, he wants to win his last game and end the 15 year bowl win draught.
  
• Prediction 3 - Jimmy Clausen has a solid day, but different than his other solid days. Early this season, Clausen was on fire. People forget how good he was. The problem was that he was reliant upon the deep pass, and had trouble with the intermediate pass. Late in the year, he couldn't hit the deep routes and his performance declined significantly. Look for Clausen to have a good game with checkdown WRs and lots of swing RB passes. A solid 289 yard, 2 TD and 1 INT effort.
  
• Prediction 4 - Special Teams touchdown early calms the Irish. Whether its a punt return or a kickoff return or a block, something will need to happen to settle the Irish down. I predict Golden Tate on a punt return midway through the 1st quarter.
  

Game prediction time -

ND 27 Hawaii 21

The Irish make 3 TDs and 2 field goals, holding off the late charging Warriors barely. Hawaii's kicker has had a worse year than ours, so missed field goals by Hawaii force Hawaii to have to go 80 yards for the game winning touchdown with a minute to go. The Irish hold the Warriors off, but they come very close to scoring. An exciting ending and fun game to watch.

Merry Christmas and GO IRISH!!!

Tonight

Sorry for the lack of posts. Been a good Thanksgiving holiday with the family. 

A few notes before a very defining game for Charlie Weis and the current state of Notre Dame football:

-  Notre Dame has not beaten USC since 2001; USC's average margin of victory is nearly 24 points in those wins.

- USC's defense is averaging only 8.7pts given up per game. That's tops in the country. 

- The point spread is up to 32 points (USC favored of course) in some spots

- The Irish defense hasn't given up more than 24 points all season against an opposing offense. 

-  In the 5 Irish road games this season, the Irish have turned the ball over 19 times versus only 3 takeaways.

We all want the Irish to win this game, but it just doesn't seem possible. Funny things happen when programs and coaches and players are "near the edge", but there have been no indications on the field at any point in the last 2 seasons to indicate the Irish have a chance to even stay in this game. 

Prediction time

Prediction 1  -  The Irish get a few lucky bounces tonight. Likely early, a turnover or two. How the Irish handle these gift wrapped chances will determine if we stay in the game past the first half. 

Prediction 2  -   The Irish have some success on the ground. Not much. Maybe 100 yards rushing total, which is good for the Irish against USC, but not good enough to win the game without major help elsewhere. 

Prediction 3  -  If USC covers the spread (which is likely), Charlie Weis will be fired on Monday evening. 

Prediction 4  -  If Notre Dame wins this game (impossible . . . nearly), Charlie Weis will enjoy success in the next few years and fully coach out his 10 year contract through the 2015 season. 

Prediction 5  -  Brian Kelly (head coach of Cincinnati) will be hired as the new Notre Dame coach as soon as next weekend if Prediction 3 comes true.

Some meaty predictions there. I have been thinking about the Weis situation all week, and I just think if the Irish get blown out, Weis is gone. His recruiting has been good, but losing winnable games and getting blown out by a rival just dont fly in South Bend. Our schedule was weak this season, and 7 wins was really the basement for this team. 6-6 would have been 5-7 or 4-8 with a more difficult schedule. 

Score prediction  . . . 

IRISH   13     USC  38

USC does not cover the spread, but soundly beat the Irish. Weis's fate is completely up in the air with this score, maybe with odds of fire/stay being 60/40%. Firing Weis after a blowout is completely fair, but definitely will hurt our recruiting and be a painful divorce from our program. But the firing would be justified and the right move. 

Go Irish, beat Trojans.