The 5 Most Important Plays of the Pitt Game

I hate rehashing losses, especially ones that were easily preventable. These 5 plays are, in my mind, the 5 chances the Irish had to win the game. There was some football to be played after most of these plays, but the chances of an Irish victory would have drastically changed at a minimum, with Pittsburgh likely having no chance or too little time to recover.

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The 5 plays that would have won the game for the Irish if any had gone differently - with #1 being the 1 play I would change if I could:

Play 5 - The Irish have the ball on our own 45, with 50 seconds and three timeouts remaining. Its 4th and 1, and the Irish use their first timeout to stop the clock. The Irish come set after the timeout, and then have to call another timeout. Credit to Clausen for calling the 2nd timeout, as he obviously saw something that was going to bust the first play up. But the two timeouts in a row were embarassing. So then the Irish go for broke in a typical Weis move, attempting a play action pass to win the game. But after the two timeouts, Pitt was ready and almost no linebackers bit on the play action. If the Irish convert, we still had 1 timeout, and likely could have advanced the ball within range of a Brandon Walker field goal attempt. Who knows if he would have made it, but the chance would have been nice.


Play 4 - 2nd & Goal from the 3 yardline in 1st OT. Quite simply, the Irish have two chances from the 3 yardline to score and win the game. Pitt has already had the ball and kicked a field goal. Two chances, no score. On the 2nd play, notice how the Tight End on the bottom of the screen - #9 Kyle Rudolph, true freshman - gets abused by the defensive end, busting up the play. I bet Jimmy finds #18 Duval Kamara on the top slot position for a TD if Rudolph makes any type of block.


Play 3 - Jimmy's overthrow to Michael Floyd in the 2nd OT. Nothing much to be said - Jimmy overthrew a wide open WR for a sure TD. Score a TD here, and the Irish have a great chance to stop Pitt. Who knows what would have happened, but it would have been nice to see if Pitt could have scored a defense that knew it already had scored a TD.


Play 2 - David Bruton almost intercepted an errant Pitt pass in the 3rd OT. This one might be a stretch, but I thought Bruton had a chance to intercept this pass. It would have been a fantastic play, and likely the Irish would have had a good chance for a game winning field goal.


Play 1 - Pittsburgh has the ball, 4th and 5, on the Irish 10 yard line, with 2:25 to go in the game. The Irish stop this pass, then Pitt only has 1 timeout, and the Irish would be able to run nearly all the time off the clock. Game is over if this pass is better defended, and the game never goes to OT. The coverage wasn't bad, but it wasn't good enough by Rashon McNeil.


Coulda, woulda, shoulda. The only value in watching these 5 plays is that we see how close the Irish were to winning this football game. Maybe you can do this with any loss, and a few plays is all that separates the winner from loser in most games.

Losing is never acceptable. In the context of last season, there is some value in that we are competing. I expect the Irish to break through and win one of these close ones this season. Experiencing success in a close game is the next step for this team. Learning from missed chances is one way to be ready for the next opportunity to take the step.

Change in Vatican Smoke Format

Here at Vatican Smoke, we have decided to change the format of the blog - specifically the focus. While the Vatican has many teams and opinions, we think that the blog being more focused on our core competancy - Notre Dame football - will allow for more in depth and meaningful discussion and analysis. The majority of the posts are already related most always to Notre Dame football, but now its official - Vatican Smoke is a Notre Dame football blog, first and foremost.



Your thoughts and comments are always appreciated.

Pitted as Mediocre

Before I dive into the Irish loss to Pitt in quadruple overtime, here is how I did on my pregame predictions in the post from Friday: 

• Prediction 1  -  Jimmy Clausen will pass for 300 yards and 3 TDs / 1 int   -  Jimmy threw for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns, no interceptions. Pretty much spot on with what I expected. However, about 35 of those passing yards came in overtime. Still a spot on prediction for the most part.
• Prediction 2  - Pitt ground attack will have a solid day, gaining 175 yards rushing on the Irish. McCoy gets 135 yards and 2 TDs.  The Pitt ground game had a very good day, and my predition was just 3 yards off. Pittsburgh had 178 yards on the ground, but McCoy had 169 of them. He is better than I expected. He only had 1 TD though.
• Prediction 3  -  Irish special teams hits bit with a Golden Tate punt return for a td. Tate's confidence is high, and he is ready to take one to the house.  No dice here. No returns were even close to being returned, a subpar day for the Irish return game.
• Prediction 4 - Irish defense comes up big, forcing 3 turnovers; 2 come from the Pitt QB Bill Stull via INT or fumble. The Irish forced exactly 3 turnovers as I predicted, all 3 coming from the Pittsburgh QB. The Pitt QB was not Bill Stull, but rather was backup Pat Bostick.
• Score Prediction Time!!!   IRISH   42   PITT   20     -  This one hurts. I was spot on with Pitt, which scored 24 points in regulation. But I far overestimated the Irish offense, which came to a screeching halt in the second half.

All in all, my predictions were as good as they have been for any game, all except my prediction of the final score. I vastly overestimated how much the Irish offense could score on the Pitt defense.

 

You can check out the stats for yourself here. Amazing how even the statistics were at the end of the game, but how lopsided they were from half to half. For instance, the total offense for the entire game (including the 4 OTs) favored the Irish by a small margin, 386 to 346 yards. But at the end of the first half, the Irish had outgained the Panthers 228 yards to 63 yards. Up by two touchdowns, the Irish simply needed to score even or slightly behind the Panthers in the 2nd half for an easy victory.

 

The Irish came out of halftime with a chance to throw a knockout punch to Pitt  -  holding them to a 3 and out and then getting the ball and scoring. The Irish stopped Pitt on 3rd and 8 after 3 plays, but a late hit by Harrison Smith ended extended the Pitt drive, which eventually resulted in a TD. At the end of the 3rd quarter, Pitt had outgained the Irish during the quarter 144 yards to 8 yards, and the door for Pitt to win the game slide open a little more.

 

An awful 3rd quarter was result of a few things, but the most telling reason for the third quarter offensive awfulness is the Irish's inability to run the football. The playcalls were heavy with the run, and the Irish simply didn't execute. The coaches wanted to run some clock and control the game on the ground in the 3rd quarter - but it wasn't working. Instead of going back to more passes, the offensive playcalling stayed with the run. Irish went 3 and out 3 times in the 3rd quarter, passing on the 3rd downs but trying to throw right into an 8 man zone by the Pittsburgh defense. Irish even started one drive at the Pitt 37 yard line  -  not scoring with a golden opportunity that would have sealed the game.

 

The biggest thing I take from this game is that the Irish lack the killer instinct to put an opponent away, to slash the throat when they have them down. An awful 3rd quarter offense, an untimely penalty, and the inability to stop Pitt's running game in the 2nd half doomed the Irish. The game did go 4 overtimes, but the Irish should never have allowed this game to even get there. With only 1 scoring drive in the 2nd half, the Irish were just 1 scoring drive short of easily winning the game. And even when overtime began, the Irish had 2 golden chances to win the game  -  getting to the 3 yard line after Pitt had kicked a field goal in the first OT, and Jimmy missing a wide open Michael Floyd on a go route from the slot in the 2nd OT. Nothing went well for the Irish after halftime.

 

Kudos to kicker Brandon Walker for his 4/5 field goal performance. His miss in overtime was tough, but he kicked well all day and this game is not on him.

 

The game this week against the Boston College Eagles from Boston is critical if the Irish want to have a "good" season instead of an "ok" one. Winning this game puts the Irish back on track for a New Years Day bowl game and an 8-4 record. Losing this game means the Sun Bowl and 7-5 are more likely. If the Irish plan on returning to college football's elite, they need to start with beating the second tier teams like Pitt and Boston College. I am not talking about tier 1 SEC or Big 12 teams, I am talking about top 40 contenders in weak BCS conferences. I sure hope things change this week.

Tough Loss

Irish lost 36-33 to Pitt in quadruple OT. On my way home from the game now - a tough loss for the Irish in a separation game.

The Irish had numerous chances to win the game in regulation and each OT - and had control of the game for nearly 55 minutes. Missing those chances to close the book on the Panthers means that the Irish deserved to lose.

This loss was tougher to swallow than the UNC loss, because the Irish had complete control of the game for so long. The Irish never trailed until overtime, unlike the Tar Heel loss. The Irish never turned the ball over, compared to three turnovers by Pitt.

More stats and posting tomorrow on the loss. My initial reaction is that the Irish coaching staff called many questionable plays on offense, which helped the Panthers gain confidence slowly throughout the game. The game was lost not by the Irish defense or the 4/5 field goal performance by Brandon Walker - this game was lost by the Irish offense, who's lack of killer instinct to put Pitt away early, left the door open for a Pitt comeback and victory.

Next week's game at Boston College is a must win.

Pitt Game preview

Big game for two 5-2 football teams, as the Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Fighting Irish on Saturday at 1:30pm CENTRAL time on NBC. The winner will be 6-2 and looking good for a New Years Day bowl game.
 
What to watch for  -  my keys of the game:

* Pitt running game  -  LeSean McCoy is a great RB, and has run for 140 yards in 5 straight games. The Irish must either slow him down, or get a lead early, forcing Pitt to pass. Stopping the run game of Pitt  -  one way or the other  -  will be the key to getting the Pitt passing offense on the field, allowing the Irish the chance at some big pressure plays on an injured QB for Pitt (Bill Stull). Pitt's run/pass balance is opposite of Notre Dame's pass heavy attack, so both teams know what to defend.

* Irish passing game  -  The top 20 ranked Irish passing offense has been improving all year. With Pitt's struggles against the pass last week versus Rutgers (5 pass TDs in the first half, after Rutgers only had 3 pass TDs in their first 6 games), Jimmy, Floyd, and co must be excited about the opportunity to pass on Pitt. If I were coaching Pitt (I'm not the Wannstache), I would zone defense the heck out of the Irish, leaving 5 at most in the box to cover the run. Getting an early lead using the deep passing game would let the Irish defense tee off on a Pitt offense that would be forced to pass the ball. Passing the ball effectively and early will be a major key for an Irish victory.

* Kicking game  -  The Irish kicking game is going to be put in some critical positions in these last 5 games. So far the 4 for 10 kicking record by Brandon Walker hasn't really cost the Irish - yet. 2 misses made the Michigan St game more comfortable for our opponents, which we cannot afford to give our next few opponents. I'm rooting for Brandon Walker, who has made all his extra points this season, in addition to making his last 3 field goal attempts.

Prediction time!

* Prediction 1  -  Jimmy Clausen will pass for 300 yards and 3 TDs / 1 int

* Prediction 2  - Pitt ground attack will have a solid day, gaining 175 yards rushing on the Irish. McCoy gets 135 yards and 2 TDs

* Prediction 3  -  Irish special teams hits bit with a Golden Tate punt return for a td. Tate's confidence is high, and he is ready to take one to the house.

* Prediction 4 - Irish defense comes up big, forcing 3 turnovers; 2 come from the Pitt QB Bill Stull via INT or fumble.

Score Prediction Time!!!
 
IRISH   42         PITT   20

Have a great weekend, and GO IRISH!!!