I want a divorce

Irish get rolled 38-3. Once again, I picked half of the score correct, as I predicted USC to score 38 points. I would be surprised if I blog on another subject besides the firing of Charlie Weis for the coming weeks.

Tonight

Sorry for the lack of posts. Been a good Thanksgiving holiday with the family. 

A few notes before a very defining game for Charlie Weis and the current state of Notre Dame football:

-  Notre Dame has not beaten USC since 2001; USC's average margin of victory is nearly 24 points in those wins.

- USC's defense is averaging only 8.7pts given up per game. That's tops in the country. 

- The point spread is up to 32 points (USC favored of course) in some spots

- The Irish defense hasn't given up more than 24 points all season against an opposing offense. 

-  In the 5 Irish road games this season, the Irish have turned the ball over 19 times versus only 3 takeaways.

We all want the Irish to win this game, but it just doesn't seem possible. Funny things happen when programs and coaches and players are "near the edge", but there have been no indications on the field at any point in the last 2 seasons to indicate the Irish have a chance to even stay in this game. 

Prediction time

Prediction 1  -  The Irish get a few lucky bounces tonight. Likely early, a turnover or two. How the Irish handle these gift wrapped chances will determine if we stay in the game past the first half. 

Prediction 2  -   The Irish have some success on the ground. Not much. Maybe 100 yards rushing total, which is good for the Irish against USC, but not good enough to win the game without major help elsewhere. 

Prediction 3  -  If USC covers the spread (which is likely), Charlie Weis will be fired on Monday evening. 

Prediction 4  -  If Notre Dame wins this game (impossible . . . nearly), Charlie Weis will enjoy success in the next few years and fully coach out his 10 year contract through the 2015 season. 

Prediction 5  -  Brian Kelly (head coach of Cincinnati) will be hired as the new Notre Dame coach as soon as next weekend if Prediction 3 comes true.

Some meaty predictions there. I have been thinking about the Weis situation all week, and I just think if the Irish get blown out, Weis is gone. His recruiting has been good, but losing winnable games and getting blown out by a rival just dont fly in South Bend. Our schedule was weak this season, and 7 wins was really the basement for this team. 6-6 would have been 5-7 or 4-8 with a more difficult schedule. 

Score prediction  . . . 

IRISH   13     USC  38

USC does not cover the spread, but soundly beat the Irish. Weis's fate is completely up in the air with this score, maybe with odds of fire/stay being 60/40%. Firing Weis after a blowout is completely fair, but definitely will hurt our recruiting and be a painful divorce from our program. But the firing would be justified and the right move. 

Go Irish, beat Trojans. 

3 Plays

Poor coaching of the fundamentals rarely changes "next year" when players have more experience, or more big time recruits fill the roster. These 3 plays from the Syracuse game in particular convict Weis and his staff of something I am not sure he can repair or change - the inability to teach fundamental football skills to young players.


Play 1 - 1st quarter, 3rd down and 4, third play of the game. Irish try to convert a third and medium with a pass from the shotgun.





The middle linebacker blitzes and hits Clausen completely untouched. Actually, there was not even an attempt to touch him. Inexplicably, left guard Eric Olsen does not even look the potential blitzer, instead helping out Turkovich, the left tackle. Errors like this typically occur when an offensive lineman has to choose between two blitzers to block, not whether to block anyone at all. This mental error for a junior this late in the year falls on the coaching staff, period. I hold Olsen accountable, but ultimately the teacher should be good enough to guide a pupil away from such simple yet potentially disasterous mistakes like this one. Weis is GUILTY AS CHARGED.


Play 2 - 1st Quarter, 4th and 2, in Syracuse territory. The Irish go for it with a goalline formation running play.





Its not a bad move to go for it, considering how long the field goal try may have been. But when the offensive line misses assignments (who is #67 attempting to block?) or just getting blown up (can I help you up off the ground former 5 star recruit #74 Sam Young?), there is just FAIL written all over the offensive line play and the playcall. Even if the aforementioned players make their blocks, the safeties would have likely snuffed the play out for a 1 yard gain, at best. Either the players are poorly coached and do not have the mental and physical tools to execute the play, or Weis should have known better and passed the ball. Either way, Weis is GUILTY AS CHARGED.


Play 3 - The first defensive play after play #2 above. Syracuse goes for the jugular after their big defensive stop.





Syracuse uses the running back in the shotgun, fakes a handoff, and then throws a pass downfield. I realize these plays can be difficult to defend. A good coaching staff realizes that a "nothing to lose" Syracuse will try to improve its longshot status of winning this game via trick plays or big shots down the field. What better time to try a big play than after your defense just made a momentum grabbing stop? Football people know that gaining a large chunk of yards or scoring a touchdown right after your defense gets a turnover can multiply the momentum just gained tenfold. No one knows this as well as Charlie, who routinely calls a play action downfield pass on the first play after a big interception by the Irish. If a coach had simply mentioned, "Watch the big trick play or deep pass", I would imagine the defense would have been defended this play. The Irisih defense was completely unprepared and this play should have been an easy touchdown for Syracuse. Weis is GUITLY AS CHARGED.


I realize that there are numerous other good examples of plays from the game that I likely missed. I also realize that players don't always play like they are coached. But at some point, we have to realize that good teams like Florida, Oklahoma, and Alabama don't have many plays like this. Bad teams do. And when Notre Dame is considered "bad", someone has to be held accountable.

We are what we are . . .

We are a 6-5 football team that just got beat by 2-8 Syracuse.

We are a mediocre football team.

We are a team that played one of the easier BCS team schedules in the country.

We are a program that can and will be successful again.

We are, possibly, going to be looking for a new coach in 7 days time.

Saturday was a difficult loss, no doubt. But it was the easiest loss for me to swallow this year actually. I became "numb" right before halftime when I realized that we still had not scored a touchdown against the lowly Orange. I told myself that getting upset would do no good, and prepared myself for the worst. Things looked better in the second half, but the moment that the Irish settled for a field goal instead of a touchdown, starting on offense after a fumble on the 4 yard line, I knew that what a 13 point lead could mean - a 1 point loss. Via this whole process, I had shut down my emotions and prepped my psyche for a loss. I recommend this to any of you that have emotional issues when the Irish lose.

I am not going to waste (much) time telling you about how we outgained another opponent on offense, yet did not win the game. I am not going to tell you about the solid game Jimmy Clausen had, throwing for 291 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Nor am I going to mention how we lost the 2nd game this season in which we had zero turnovers. Whoops I just mentioned all of that. And the NCAA really needs to clarify the "toe then heel" catch rule, confusion over which has burned the Irish for the 2nd straight week.

Those of you that read this blog know that we are very pro-Charlie and have defended Coach throughout this entire season. The mainstays of the Charlie-defense have been the promise of incoming and developing talent, as well as how most of the Irish losses this season were games which the Irish should have won. Right now, none of those defenses catch any ears or have any credibility.

Don't waste your time defending Charlie any longer. Instead of defending him and pointing to the future, it is time that Charlie measures up in the only category that matters - Wins. At this point, Charlie is pretty much unable to impress me via the recruiting rankings, stat lines, depth charts, almost wins, moral victories, or quarterback play. We all want Notre Dame back to where she should be - top 10 every year, a team feared far and wide. If Charlie cannot do better than this, its time to move on and find someone else who can.

Many of you like my "predictions" so here is another one for you: If the Irish fail to cover the 29 point spread against USC this Saturday, Charlie Weis will be unemployed 7 days from right now.

Orange Bowl

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orangemen

Saturday November 22nd, 2008, 1:30pm Central

Notre Dame Stadium - Notre Dame, Indiana

The Irish are 20 point favorites over the (2-8) Orangemen on Saturday. Nearly 14 inches of snow has fallen during the week, so this game will be a cold one. And it could be a Green one, as the Irish sometimes wear the Green jersey for Senior Day, the last home game of the season. We shall see.

Despite the point spread and the firing of the Syracuse coach Greg Robinson last weekend, the Irish cannot overlook any opponents. Syracuse has played a solid schedule (losing by only 10 to West Virgina and Pitt) and will not be shocked by the talent level the Irish have. Now the quick stats:

• Syracuse Offense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 112th/65th


• Irish Offense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 28th/84th


• Syracuse Defense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 72nd/107th


• Irish Defense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 22nd/57th

The Orangemen's best weapon is running back Curtis Brinkley, who is actually pretty good. The kid is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has rushed for 1060 yards through 10 games, against solid but not great Big East competition. The Syracuse QB seems efficient, rarely throwing the ball but not throwing many INTs (9 TDs against 4 INTs). And Syracuse on defense is probably the second worst defense the Irish have played this season, close to the level of Washington. This should not be a close game.

Prediction time!

• Prediction 1 - Jimmy Clausen finally gets a good game on the books in the 2nd half of the season, throwing for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, against 1 INT.


• Prediction 2 - The Irish rack up 200 yards rushing, another solid effort on the ground.


• Prediction 3 - Yes, Golden Tate finally makes a "house call" on a punt or kickoff return.

Score prediction time!

IRISH 41 Syracuse 17

(Record picking the Irish straight up is 7-3, while only 6-4 against the spread)