Stat Talk

Yesterday I predicted the initial betters line between the Irish and the Hawaii Warriors to be ND favored by 3.5 points. Turns out I was off, as the Warriors are favored by 1.5 pts currently, although the line should be moving a bit in the early betting. I am no longer surprised at this line after I have looked at the season long stats. The stats below are the NCAA Div1A national rankings (out of 119 teams). Here we go . . . (check out the stats via this link if you cannot view the table in your email or reader):

Offenses: The offenses are eerily similar, with Hawaii and the Irish ranking 74th and 75th, respectively. Yes, Hawaii has played 13 games to ND's 12. But remember that these stats are averages, so I don't think that 1 game affects the stats very much. Both teams pass better than they run, and both teams are average in the passing game but decidedly weak in the running game. Scoring wise, Hawaii has been slightly more efficient with their yards gained this season. Turnover margin wise these teams are nearly identical as well. Advantage: PUSH


Defenses: The Irish have the better defense, albeit just by a small margin. Scoring defense and pass defense is where the Irish clearly outpace the Warriors. ND's defense has been efficient this year, a perfect bend but not break and opportunistic squad (at least early in the year). The solid defensive advantage in yards given up becomes a very slim one if you taken into account tackles for a loss. Hawaii is 19th in the country, compared to the woeful Irish ranking of 112th. A slight edge to the Irish. Advantage: IRISH.


The raw offensive and defensive stats may indicate that the Irish should be a slight favorite. But the following factors weigh heavily against the Irish in this matchup:

Hawaii Homefield Advantage - Hawaii was 5-2 at home this season, and the Hawaii bowl is played in their home stadium (Aloha Stadium).

Irish Road Performance - The Irish were 2-4 on the road this season, holding on to beat Navy and handling Washington. Against Michigan St, UNC, BC, and USC, the Irish had major issues all over the field, and typically looked lost (except for the 1st quarter of the UNC game).

Irish 2nd half performance - The Irish finished the 2nd half 2-4, only looking like the first half of the season Irish during portions of the Washington and Navy games. Losing 4 out of the last 5 games was particularly terrible.

Confidence factor - Right now, I cannot imagine that the Irish have any confidence. They ended the season on embarrassing performances, and surely realize that they nearly got their coach fired. How could they be confident right now?

All in all, I am not surprised Hawaii is favored. In fact, if we weren't Notre Dame, we'd be touchdown underdogs. Lucky for us, the Irish will have their best defensive and offensive players back on the field, when Freshmen WR Michael Floyd and Sophomore LB Brian Smith return (they each missed the Syracuse and USC games, and it showed). Personally, I think the warm weather and the almost firing of Charlie Weis will give this team a spark. How much of one is up in the air. But if I were setting a betting line for this game, I think Hawaii favored by 1.5 pts is fair based on what I have discussed here.


Certainly there are other factors weighing against or in favor of the Irish - would love to hear your thoughts via the comments section. And for anyone that doesn't think this game matters, check out my post from yesterday.