Changing the Culture - 2010 Season Prediction

Before diving into my 2010 season predictions for the Irish, I wanted to share the predictions of long time ND beat writer Al Lesar from the South Bend Tribune - who gives a game by game prediction in this article in the SB Tribune last week. 


Lesar predicts the Irish to go 8-4 - losing to Utah, Stanford, Michigan St, and Boston College, while defeating Michigan, USC, and Pittsburgh. Its hard to agree or disagree with Mr. Lesar's predictions at this point. No one has what we really need to predict the Irish win total - an answer to the question, "Has Brian Kelly changed the culture of this program?" A "No" means that we should expect the same erratic performances as last year - moments of brilliance followed by excruciating ones - creating a close game against Purdue as well as USC. Until the Irish can stop losing, as Brian Kelly has said during the spring and summer, we cant move forward towards winning. 


With that key question in mind, lets begin the season prediction - starting at talent vs our opponents. While its debatable, majority of experts will agree that the Irish are more talented man for man than 5 opponents - Purdue, Western Michigan, Tulsa, Navy, and Army (save the Navy jokes, please) - on par with 6 opponents - Michigan (debatable), Michigan St, Stanford, Boston College, Pitt, Utah - and a bit behind 1 opponent - USC (debatable). The Irish return 8 or more starters on both sides of the ball in 2010 - which could be considered good or bad. The good news is that in 2009, the Irish had the ball in the final moments with a chance to win each of the 6 games they lost (yep, every single one of them); the bad news is that 4 of the Irish wins of 2009 were the opposite - holding on for dear life or scoring in the final minute. While the Irish might not have a talent surplus, in 2009 they certainly did not have a talent deficit.


While many point to a talent as the reason for losing, I point to shortcomings of the emotional, motivational, and mental variety that together comprise the "culture" of the program. So we come back to the key question - has BK been able to change the culture of the Irish program? We won't know for awhile, but chances are high that Brian Kelly knows how. While he hasn't seen the level of scrutiny he will find at ND, he has been a college head coach  - not an assistant, but a head coach - for 19 seasons. Given his level of experience and success, I expect nothing less than for this team to play a higher percentage of games at their maximum potential - as opposed to playing down to the level of the competition like the 2009 team.  Also, I expect losses - yes, I expect these - to be more about the other team's performance, rather than an Irish collapse or self inflicted wounds. The victories will be more emphatic and less hanging on for dear life. As the season progresses, there will be improvement and tangible evidence of learning from earlier mistakes. In short, I expect the Irish program to get back to discussions about our talent, and not our coaching. 


With that in mind, the Vatican Smoke official preseason prediction:

• vs. Purdue  (W  34-24)
• vs. Michigan  (W  38-17)
• at Michigan St  (L  24-21)
• vs Stanford  (W  28-24)
• at Boston College (W  28-20)
• vs. Pittsburgh (L  27-24)
• vs Western Michigan  (W 42-17)
• vs Navy  (W 49-28)
• vs Tulsa  (W 42-24)
• vs Utah  (L 31-28 OT)
• vs Army (W 45-17)
• at USC (W 24-21 OT)
• 9 wins, 3 losses

Color me biased. Lots of high scores eh? The Irish were close to going 9-3 or 10-2 last year - but also very close to going 4-8. I think Brian Kelly closes the gap and takes a comparably to slightly less talented 2009 team, and turns them into the foundation for long term program success. The key pieces of the offense are all back - except the big one. Where the passing game steps back a good bit because of Clausen's departure, the passing scheme of Brian Kelly - combined with the newfound ability to run the football - combine to fill the void. Saturday at 330pm ET, maybe this 9-3 prediction will start to look really good . . . or worse. 

Either Or

Probably not many fans are more happy to have the previous season behind them than Irish fans. The past few weeks, I have probably read as many articles and news stories about Notre Dame football and college football than any other time of the year. Nothing is more speculative than a preseason preview from anyone - especially a beat writer, blogger, or even a coach. 


Brian Kelly addressed the media last Friday before the first day of practice - his press conference detailed in this Chicago Sun Times piece from Rick Morrissey. Pay attention to the "Simply Being Realistic" section. Kelly details what he thinks are some strengths, but also candidly details some vulnerabilities. After the past 3 seasons, everyone knows the Irish have some weak points - but with a new regime and system, not everyone knows what they are (besides overall talent of course). Kelly gave what appears to be an honest assessment of the Irish weaknesses - first being the obvious lack of experience at QB, but also depth along the defensive line, consistency in the secondary, and consistency at kicker. 


The most important of all those vulnerabilities is easily experience at QB. Dayne Crist has played in just 4 games, and only attempted 20 passes. Certainly he will be in a spread offense that is QB friendly, but his play will be critical. Depth on the defensive line, while important, becomes less important as the Irish shift back to the 3-4 defense the majority of the defensive players were recruited for (not to mention there's only 3 spots now). Kicking consistency is also important, but in my opinion such a lesser issue. Kicking is scrutinized more on bad teams - which the Irish have been the past few years. The kicking question is more reflective of all the close games the Irish played in the last two seasons. 


Secondary consistency is the key question for me, beyond QB play. The old defensive adage of stopping the run first is certainly still valid, but to a lesser extent. Teams kill you with the pass now - while the run is merely an accomplice. Bob Diaco (Irish defensive coordinator) hopefully worked his butt off all summer trying to answer the question - how can we get better at defending the pass? I don't have the answer, but I can help him in this regard: the Irish cant get much worse than 76th in FBS at 228 yards per game. Improvement is likely with any new scheme. But don't get too excited - as Cincinnati ranked 78th in the country last year in pass defense. 


Last year's defense had nothing to hang their hat on - as Weis used to say. You cant be bad against the run - 89th in the country - as well as bad against the pass. Hopefully Diaco & co are figuring out a way to at least be solid in one area. If the Irish can defend either or, they should be in good shape to at least have a chance at the Vegas over/under 8 win total. But then again, nothing's more speculative than a blogger in August.