Changing the Culture - 2010 Season Prediction

Before diving into my 2010 season predictions for the Irish, I wanted to share the predictions of long time ND beat writer Al Lesar from the South Bend Tribune - who gives a game by game prediction in this article in the SB Tribune last week. 


Lesar predicts the Irish to go 8-4 - losing to Utah, Stanford, Michigan St, and Boston College, while defeating Michigan, USC, and Pittsburgh. Its hard to agree or disagree with Mr. Lesar's predictions at this point. No one has what we really need to predict the Irish win total - an answer to the question, "Has Brian Kelly changed the culture of this program?" A "No" means that we should expect the same erratic performances as last year - moments of brilliance followed by excruciating ones - creating a close game against Purdue as well as USC. Until the Irish can stop losing, as Brian Kelly has said during the spring and summer, we cant move forward towards winning. 


With that key question in mind, lets begin the season prediction - starting at talent vs our opponents. While its debatable, majority of experts will agree that the Irish are more talented man for man than 5 opponents - Purdue, Western Michigan, Tulsa, Navy, and Army (save the Navy jokes, please) - on par with 6 opponents - Michigan (debatable), Michigan St, Stanford, Boston College, Pitt, Utah - and a bit behind 1 opponent - USC (debatable). The Irish return 8 or more starters on both sides of the ball in 2010 - which could be considered good or bad. The good news is that in 2009, the Irish had the ball in the final moments with a chance to win each of the 6 games they lost (yep, every single one of them); the bad news is that 4 of the Irish wins of 2009 were the opposite - holding on for dear life or scoring in the final minute. While the Irish might not have a talent surplus, in 2009 they certainly did not have a talent deficit.


While many point to a talent as the reason for losing, I point to shortcomings of the emotional, motivational, and mental variety that together comprise the "culture" of the program. So we come back to the key question - has BK been able to change the culture of the Irish program? We won't know for awhile, but chances are high that Brian Kelly knows how. While he hasn't seen the level of scrutiny he will find at ND, he has been a college head coach  - not an assistant, but a head coach - for 19 seasons. Given his level of experience and success, I expect nothing less than for this team to play a higher percentage of games at their maximum potential - as opposed to playing down to the level of the competition like the 2009 team.  Also, I expect losses - yes, I expect these - to be more about the other team's performance, rather than an Irish collapse or self inflicted wounds. The victories will be more emphatic and less hanging on for dear life. As the season progresses, there will be improvement and tangible evidence of learning from earlier mistakes. In short, I expect the Irish program to get back to discussions about our talent, and not our coaching. 


With that in mind, the Vatican Smoke official preseason prediction:

• vs. Purdue  (W  34-24)
• vs. Michigan  (W  38-17)
• at Michigan St  (L  24-21)
• vs Stanford  (W  28-24)
• at Boston College (W  28-20)
• vs. Pittsburgh (L  27-24)
• vs Western Michigan  (W 42-17)
• vs Navy  (W 49-28)
• vs Tulsa  (W 42-24)
• vs Utah  (L 31-28 OT)
• vs Army (W 45-17)
• at USC (W 24-21 OT)
• 9 wins, 3 losses

Color me biased. Lots of high scores eh? The Irish were close to going 9-3 or 10-2 last year - but also very close to going 4-8. I think Brian Kelly closes the gap and takes a comparably to slightly less talented 2009 team, and turns them into the foundation for long term program success. The key pieces of the offense are all back - except the big one. Where the passing game steps back a good bit because of Clausen's departure, the passing scheme of Brian Kelly - combined with the newfound ability to run the football - combine to fill the void. Saturday at 330pm ET, maybe this 9-3 prediction will start to look really good . . . or worse. 

Star Power

Busy day today at Vatican Smoke with not one but two posts in one day. Recruiting rankings are a tenuous topic among many old school and new school college fans. This article in the Wall Street Journal was not surprising to me, although it might be to some.

I have always contended that recruiting rankings on a micro level - for one player - are certainly not perfect projections of that player's potential. However, Rivals and other sites have shown that the chances of making the NFL are higher for 5 stars than 3 stars - significantly in fact. From the 2010 NFL draft's first round, only 1 player was not a 3 star or higher coming out of high school; and since there are only 20 to 25 5 stars nationally per year, the 5 star still had the highest % chance of being drafted in the 1st round.

While there are numerous 5 star busts and 3 star players that make the NFL, the recruiting ranking that really matters is the class ranking for a program - over time. In the Wall Street Journal article from the top, the average star rating for starters is compared for the top schools. Not surprisingly, USC and Florida top the list, followed by Texas, Alabama, LSU, and the rest of the SEC. Yet interestingly enough, the Irish are 3rd. The anti-recruiting ranking folks will point to a potential Irish bias in recruiting rankings - getting higher marks than they deserve. The pro-recruiting folks - myself included - point to the lack of development and good enough coaching. Brian Kelly has developed talent everywhere he has coached, which means the pro-recruiting contingent now has a chance to see whether the Irish recruiting rankings were accurate and Weis did not develop them, or that Irish players get too generous a bump when they commit (which I contend is the opposite of what happens). I hope we see the former validated.

What Went Wrong

Brian Kelly is off to a great public relations start to his coaching tenure at Notre Dame - already a local celebrity of sorts. Notre Dame fans are more tempered this time around, after getting overly excited at the start of the Charlie Weis and Ty Willingham eras. Coach Weis's opening press conference was exactly what the tired Notre Dame fanbase needed - energy through a display of bravado and arrogance. The Irish fans ate up that Charlie Weis opening monologue, spawning the typical "Return to Glory" and "Wake up the echoes" catch phrases. Brian Kelly's opening press conference was more like a politician's first words as an elected representative - grateful, careful, and inspiring. No matter how smooth or energetic Kelly looks, ND fans know better than to get overly excited before the first games are played. And even then, given that Weis and Willingham had arguably their best seasons in year 1, Irish fans should really wait until season 2 and 3. 


Plenty of offseason remains to talk about Kelly and changes in the Irish football program - new coaches, recruiting, etc. In this post, I am closing the book on the Charlie Weis era - a final lookback that, at least from Vatican Smoke's perspective, will serve as an obituary for one of my favorite Notre Dame figures ever. After this post, the blog will focus on the Brian Kelly era, without looking back much to the past. 


What went wrong? Two straight BCS bowls, elite recruiting, explosive offense, and optimism were the prevailing headlines of the first two years of the Charlie Weis era. How could such a talented offensive mind not win at Notre Dame - his alma matre? Here are some reasons why Charlie failed - as well as a few qualities of Charlie Weis that most Notre Dame fans should remember. 

• Charlie Weis never got a defense - neither thru recruiting or a defensive coordinator. When the Irish hired Jon Tenuta before the 2008 season, I was ecstatic. A hyper aggressive, plenty experienced DC that had manhandled the Irish in two games in 2006-07 - Tenuta appeared to bring an edge the Irish defense needed. Alas, the stubbornness and inability to adapt to the personnel at ND doomed Tenuta. Recruiting never produced consistently solid defensive lineman in enough numbers to disrupt running games or bring pressure on the quarterback.
• Coach Weis's teams never improved as the season went on. Charlie Weis's record from November 1st thru the end of the season during his 5 years was 11-13. In 2007-2009 (the last 3 seasons), his record was just 4-10 from November 1st on. Good teams get better and finish the season strong, peaking when it matters. Outside of the wins against Stanford ('07) and Hawaii ('08), the Irish lost the final game Weis's other 3 seasons. 
• Charlie never beat the elite teams - or many ranked teams for that matter. Notre Dame was just 1-8 versus top 10 ranked teams (ranked at the time of the game - the lone win being Charlie's second career game in 2005 at Michigan, a team finished 7-5); even worse really, the Irish were a terrible 4-12 against ranked teams. Charlie was 0-5 against USC, 2-3 against Michigan, and 1-2 against Boston College. I have nothing to add here. 
• Charlie's initial arrogance created a schism with some alumni that was never repaired.  Charlie's initial arrogance and unwillingness to appear at the traditional alumni events during his first two years came back to haunt him during the the 3-9 campaign of 2007, as his character description changed from "colorful and confident" to "arrogant and a$$hole". Numerous people never forgave Charlie for his early transgressions - too many people that mattered. These people pushed hard during 2007 - 2009 to get Charlie out, and eventually succeeded. 
• Coach Weis's physical limitations eventually were harmful to the program. College football players need inspiration and energy to play one of the more emotional sports around. Weis's appearance quite simply drained energy from the program. Constantly hobbling around, on crutches, or the butt of fat jokes, the program was never able to shake the image that Weis portrayed physically. The Jersey accent and hooded sweatshirts didn't impress anyone either. While not as important as the above reasons, there is no way around it - appearance matters for those who wish to lead. Do presidents and CEOs look sloppy, wearing sweatshirts, with serious weight issues? Do leaders drive around in a golf cart, always in need of physical assistance? There are certainly leaders with physical disabilities. However, a) there aren't that many and b) even fewer of them are great football coaches. 
• Charlie Weis proved that Notre Dame can recruit elite talent once again. Charlie's 5 recruiting classes at Notre Dame finished ranked 30th, 8th, 8th, 2nd, and 21st. The first class was 98% Willingham in 2005, so we will remove that, since Weis was winning a Super Bowl with the Patriots. The current commits for the next year's 2010 class are 98% Weis, so we will add the current ranking of 12th. Weis's average national ranking/finish in his 5 recruiting efforts was 10.2. Not bad. Given all the restrictions at ND, an average class ranked #10 is about as good as we can reasonably ask for. Texas's average class rank during those same 5 years was 9.8, while Florida was 6.2; yet USC was tops over those 5 years with an average class rank of 3.2.  Many thought ND could never recruit elite talent again - whether because of the location, academics, or lack of recent championships. Weis debunked that myth. 
• Charlie Weis ran a clean program - one that we are all proud of off the field. In 2009 Notre Dame football actually shared the top spot in graduation rates for Division 1-A - which is nothing short of amazing. Off the field, the worst things that happened under Weis were a few minor alcohol issues, and some on campus stuff that happens with college kids. All in all, Weis performed as expected in the off the field arena: maintaining the high standards of Notre Dame off the field, while graduating players on time. 
• Charlie Weis is a good person. Many people assume Charlie's confidence/arrogance is an indicator of the type of person he outside of football. In reality, Charlie's Jersey / Bill Parcell's type attitude was just the football Charlie. Outside of work, Charlie gives all his time to his family - quite often to the charity his wife Maura and he founded in honor of his autistic daughter (Hannah & Friends). Go to CharlieWeis.com - and see where you end up. Other coaches sell tshirts and calendars on their website. Not Charlie. 

Bottom line: Charlie is an innovative football mind that was not able to adjust quickly enough to the head coaching of college football. He was excruciatingly close in so many areas (recruiting, offense), but came up short in many others (defense, media relations, close losses). A majority of the issues with Coach Weis boil down to a lack of college football head coaching experience - clearly the #1 criteria in finding our new football coach. What Charlie Weis lacked, Brian Kelly certainly has. Will BK be successful? If the initial excitement and deflation of the Charlie Weis and Ty Willingham eras taught us anything, its that we have to temper expectations and not resort to naming a new coach savior after beating Purdue. 


We'll miss you Charlie - and we'll always remember the great times (Michigan '05, USC '05, Michigan St '06, Michigan '08). And most people, including myself, are sorry it didn't work out. We know that you love Notre Dame with all your heart, and tried your damndest to get the program back on track. You left the Notre Dame football program better off than it was when you arrived, and you'll be a ton better NFL Offensive Coordinator now because of this experience. Best of luck. 




The BK era begins . . . coaching staff should be announced within a week, and recruiting is super busy right now. Sounds like BK should be able to get a top 15 class, very possibly top 10. And a good staff as well. Stay tuned.