Michigan Game Preview

Michigan and Notre Dame square off in South Bend this weekend. This marks the first meeting between coaches Rich Rodriguez and Charlie Weis, while its Weis' 4th time against the Wolverines. Kickoff is at 2:30pm central time - here is a quick rundown of what to watch for on each side of the ball, with some of my predictions mixed in via bullet points below.

• When Michigan has the football . . . the key here for the Irish will be stopping the spread offense running game. Michigan will play both QBs (Threet, Sheridan), as well as 3 or more RBs, Minor and McGuffie being the main guys. Both RBs are improving and are different types of backs, Minor being more power inside, with McGuffie being more speed outside. Michigan's passing game has been abysmal through 2 games, so that should help us allocate defenders to the run. Notre Dame must stop the running game and let our defensive backs matchup with the Michigan WRs man to man. This will give us the best chance to leave more guys to defend the run and pressure the QB.
• Prediction: Michigan will have 150 yard rushing, 75 yards passing
• Prediction: Notre Dame's pressure will cause at least 2 turnovers from Michigan QBs Threet or Sheridan (both will play).
• When Notre Dame has the football . . . its a line battle, plain and simple. If Michigan's very talented defensive line - headlined by all 4 returning starters from last year - can cause even close to the destruction it caused against the ND offensive line last year, then this game will be over before it starts. ND's line will be improved, but getting 100 yards on the ground will be a necessity - Michigan's average yards rushing given up so far this year is 45 yards, through 2 games. At the minimum, the Irish must protect Jimmy Clausen. Anymore than 3 sacks given up will make this game difficult to win.
• Prediction: The Irish rush for 75 yards, while passing for 250
• Prediction: Michigan's defense will have 1 fumble, 1 interception, and 1 sack
• Blitzing Irish Defense >> One thing that people have harped about this week is whether the Irish should keep blitzing last week, since we only got 1 sack and San Diego St. was able to move the ball. I think the blitz caused San Diego St to make shorter passes and allowed fewer big plays than our prior years defenses. The Aztecs passed 60 times, only completing 29, for an average of 4.2 yards. That's not even a great rushing average! I say the defense played fine outside of a few bad third down shovel passes, as well as two third down penalties that continued drives that had ended. Hopefully we saved some of the more exotic blitzes for a very green Michigan Offensive Line this week.
• Screen Passes >> I will know the Charlie Weis offense of 2005-2006 is back when we start executing screen passes to perfection. Last year the screen game was a complete joke, and that took away a huge piece of the Weis offensive arsenal. Screens can be extremely effective against a blitzing defense, or one where the defensive line is running rampant through the Offensive Line. However, its a very difficult play to execute for the offense, down to the timing, tempo, and all the things that have to go right at the same time. But when it does work, man is it pretty. I think we are gonna have to execute the screen play well against Michigan to have a chance.
• Prediction: The Irish will run 4 screen plays for 50 yards, with plays of 3, 5, 30, and 12. 3 passes to Armando Allen, 1 to Robert Hughes.
• Enjoy this screen play from the Pittsburgh game, the first game of 2005 and of Weis' coaching career. This, my friends, is how you run a screen play.

Prediction Time: The Michigan defensive line's dominance over the Irish OLine is the unavoidable roadblock for many trying to pick the Irish to win this one. Even the corners for Michigan are very experienced and are going to cover our young WRs much better than San Diego St. Michigan's offense has looked bad through 2 games - I'm betting they don't look any better on Saturday either.

I am a completely biased homer of a moron. I cannot fully explain why I am predicting this, because logic and matchups discussed above would denote otherwise. I think the Irish are going to come out swinging against a punchless opponent. Electricity and confidence and hope and fire and passion and pure adrenaline will return to Notre Dame stadium for the first time since 2006. The Irish will start fast . . . and end fast. We won't run over Michigan, as they will hand us the game with 3 major turnovers, all 3 of which are converted into touchdowns. The Irish will look much better than reality, which is better than reality slapping us in the face like all last season. Notre Dame is still an average or slightly above average team, at best - but the scoreboard will say otherwise on this day:


Notre Dame 38 Michigan 14

Titans Report

A very weird first week for the Titans that includes a big, dominant win as well as a confused quarterback.

• Big Win, Big Defense >> The Tennessee defense was absolutely superb on Sunday. 7 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a forced fumble, all against a good team at avoiding turnovers, the Jaguars. The divisional win, combined with the other two teams in the division (Colts & Texans) both losing, created a near picture perfect first week for the Titans. The defensive line looked unbelievable - as nearly all of that pressure came by the line alone, rarely needing blitzes to get to David Garrard. Another incredible stat from the game was the total rushing yardage - 36 yards - that the Jaguars got on 24 carries. WoW. If healthy, this defense is better than last year's team, which finished ranked #5 in the league. Scary.
• Vince Young's play, not mental state >> Vince Young looked pretty bad against the Jaguars, a very good defensive team that has always given him trouble. The whole issue this week with Vince's leadership and mental health (commented on below) is not a factor in my analysis here - but I think that Vince is never going to be the quarterback that many expect. He will never be a great pocket passer. What he can be is an amazing leader, and someone who's improvisation and speed abilities should be a stable that every defense must prepare for. Vince Young needs more called running plays and rollouts, plays which always seem more natural and easy for him. These plays will establish rhythm, and that's when he will make his big passes, after he has a feel for the game. 5 step drops and standing still will not work for Vince. He is currently injured with a sprained MCL. I say leave him out for as long as he needs to get healthy, then bring him back slowly. Vince is a leader but not someone that the Titans utterly depend on to win (ie, Tom Brady).
• Chris Johnson out of the backfield, WOW >> A fantastic debut for the rookie speedster out of East Carolina. Johnson ran a sub 4.3 40yrd dash and was a surprise 1st round pick of the Titans. Most thought he would be a change of pace back, with the bulk of the carries going to Lendale White. Wrong. Johnson got 19 carries, started the game, and easily was the best thing the Titans had going on offense. The offense really appears to be utilizing and valuing Johnson's potential, and defenses are going to have to adjust. He will either have continued success, or defenses will have to leave something else open for our offense. I expect the Tight Ends to benefit the most by less linebacker attention. And he is on my fantasy team, which rewards heavily for receptions out of the backfield, a CJ specialty. He'll be fun to watch.
• Vince Young Mental Advice >> I love Vince, and think he is a winner. Right now he is just having a hard time not having the immense success he enjoyed at Texas. I fully expect him to come out of his funk, get healthy, and lead this team. I think the Titans have a responsibility to be patient with Vince, as well as give him more chances to make plays. He is not yet and likely will never be a pure pocket passer, so we must get him going early with called run plays and more rollouts. Then Vince's natural instincts will begin flowing, giving him tempo and rhythm to make the passing plays we need. Hang in there Vince, you have a fan here at the Vatican.

Titans at the Bengals this weekend, who played poorly against the Ravens in week 1. Bengals are favored by 1, but we all remember the butt whooping the Bengals put on the Titans last season in Cincinnati in mid season. Certainly it could happen again, but I find it tough to believe the Bengals will score more than the low 20s against our defense. Kerry Collins will have a big day, my prediction:

Titans 31 Bengals 20

ND vs San Diego St. - Recap

ND - 21 San Diego St 13

Game recap here

The initial impression that many have today is one of disgust or "here we go again" after watching the Irish yesterday. As ugly as it was, a win is a win. Last year's team would not have won that football game late like the Irish did yesterday. Much more can be learned after an ugly win than what could have been learned after a loss that likely would have been the beginning of the end of the Weis era. Now to address my specific game predictions from my Friday post, as well as to assess grades for the 4 areas of grading (Passing Offense, Rushing Offense, Defense, Special Teams), here we go:

• Rushing Game I predicted 10 carries at least each for Armando Allen, James Aldridge, and Robert Hughes. In addition, I predicted 300 yards rushing and 4 TDs on the ground. Wow. The rushing total finished at 105 yards, including zero rushing TDs. Allen had 17 carries, Hughes had 16, and Aldridge had none. I love giving all the carries to the more talented sophomores than the older, slower Jr James Aldridge. But where were the big 300 pound uglies that we heard about all off season? The run blocking was just plain bad for 90% of the rushing attempts. This must be fixed, because passing won't come as easy on other teams. Grade: C-
• Passing Game I predicted Jimmy Clausen would finish with 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and pass for 225 yards. Jimmy surpassed all expectations, especially late in the 4th quarter, throwing 3 touchdowns and 237 yards, against 2 interceptions. It should be noted that the two interceptions were likely both Kamara's fault, one hitting him in the face mask and another ball thrown his way that he wasn't even looking for. Jimmy's touchdown passes were beautiful, well thrown passes. He finished the game 10 out of his last 11, allowing the Irish to complete the comback with a victory. Pass blocking, unlike last year, was superb. Zero sacks for Jimmy Clausen, and only 1 hurry. This after giving up 58 sacks in 2007. Grade: A
• Defense Predicted 3 turnovers, 4 sacks, and 2 celebration penalties. The Irish defense got 2 turnovers, 1 INT and 1 Fumble. Overall, I thought the defense played fair. They definitely blitzed a whole helluva lot, which is encouraging to see. It's apparent though that our defensive line will not be able to get pressure by itself, so blitzing and leaving short passing routes open for the opponent - which San Diego St used all day long - will be a common situation our defense creates. The defense only got 1 sack, despite all the blitzes. We must get more pressure on the quarterback, while figuring out a way to better stop the short and intermediary passing routes. Our safeties and deep pass coverage was a plus. And hey, we only gave up 13 points and 345 yards of total offense, so I can't complain too bad. But San Diego State's ball controlling and short passing game was definitely a cause for concern. Grade: B-
• Special Teams A complete abortion on the kicking game. Numerous bad snaps by Freshman Braxton Cave, in addition to a field goal attempt that was not unlike a Chinese fire drill. We did partially block a punt, and had good coverage on our punts and kickoffs. Some decent punt returns by Armando Allen as well. But our inability to lineup and kick a field goal, with even extra points not even close to certain, this was a huge disappointment. Grade: D

A win is a win, but we all know the Irish will have to play better to beat any of our later opponents on the schedule. This win does put us on a 3 game winning streak. We'll see how much longer it can last when the Wolverines come to town next weekend. They have plenty of talent, but luckily haven't totally put it together yet either. More on that game later in the week.

Ian O'Connor: Irish Hater Extraordinaire

Ian O'Connor, former USA Today sportswriter, currently employed by Fox Sports of some type, does not like Charlie Weis. Nor does he like Notre Dame. No big deal, because he is entitled to his opinion. So am I. I figure that its time someone wrote about him, or more directly, about his misconceptions about Weis and the Fighting Irish.

 

Here is his first article, way back in 2004 when Willingham was fired and Weis was hired. The title of this 2004 article is "Sorry Charlie, but Hope Luck of the Irish is All Bad". (Notice the first article is in the pages of USA Today, a major national publication). Read the article here, its very interesting.

 

The basic premise of the article is that he's pissed off that Notre Dame has fired Willingham, being an Irish Catholic former fan of the University. He then follows the age old and extremely tired argument about Notre Dame selling its soul and becoming a football factory, no longer being any different than any other big football school. So cliche, so overdone, not taking into account the big picture of Notre Dame.

 

Here is a quote that sums up what I have a problem with in this first article (discussing Kevin White's words after the firing of Willingham): 

 

White said Willingham had dominated the line of scrimmage from Sunday to Friday, shaping Fighting Irish athletes into responsible and academically oriented young men. But then the AD talked about the one day of the week — Saturday — where none of that mattered, the only day of the week when Notre Dame keeps score.

 

O'Connor references the quote from Kevin White in which he said that Willingham was a great coach and leader of the program from Sunday to Friday, but not Saturday, implying that Willingham did everything right but win. O'Connor claims that Notre Dame now only cares about "Saturday" and winning, making us no different than major college programs.

 

My question to O'Connor is this  -  why can't you believe that Notre Dame strives for excellence Sunday through and including Saturday? Notre Dame is different because both on the field and off the field do matter. The school does not tolerate less than excellence in any arena of measurement. Yes, winning matters at Notre Dame. It matters a lot. But don't suppose that academics, ethics, and grades don't matter either! Yes, this sounds very idealistic, but its true.

 

The element of faith is mixed in with all that we do at Notre Dame. This faith element often creates a misconeption of arrogance to many outsiders, who do not understand that faith gives us the confidence and independence  -  also known as the Grace of God  -  to strive for success in everything from water polo to chemistry to football.

 

O'Connor's most recent article  -  on Fox Sports Network, no longer USA Today  -  again reaks of a dislike of Weis and Notre Dame, a dislike rooted in the Willingham firing. The title is "We're still waiting for Weis to prove himself." This article really says nothing more than he thinks Weis is unproven, overrated, and that he is still rooting against Weis and the Irish. A quote:

 

So far, the coach has done little to add to the mythology of Notre Dame football, and a lot to harden the myth of his own genius.

 

I don't have much problem with this article. Honestly, its pretty fair, unlike his first article. O'Connor says he thinks Weis is arrogant, not a great coach, and goes through the timeline of all the arrogant things Weis has said. All the facts that he presents are fair and truthful.

 

This article adds no new insight or opinion, just some things Weis said combined with a restatement of O'Connor's self proclaimed "rooting against the Irish. His article is akin to an awkward 10 year old boy standing atop the tree trunk on the playground, proclaiming to all the other school children that Johnny, the self described best 4-Square player, is losing his current match to Bobby. Sweet. Nobody cares. In reality, Johnny is otherwise like able and the match that he is losing is still only in the 1st quarter.

 

I'm entertained by writing like O'Connor's, because a lot of people dislike Notre Dame but aren't quite as transparent as Ian is. At least you know which side of the road he stands on. It's sad that there is a decent chance that O'Connor's writing about ND is the only way he can get attention nowadays.

Gametime: Irish vs San Diego St.

The Irish open up tomorrow at home against the San Diego St. Aztecs, with kickoff set for 2:40pm central standard time.

San Diego St. is not a good football team. I'm sure they will play hard and likely have a few athletes, but this is not a team the Irish should even play a close game with. San Diego St. lost to a very good D1-AA team in Cal-Poly last weekend, 24-22. They gave up 270ish yards rushing and only had about 50 themselves on the ground. They pass the ball a lot on offense, and don't play much defense. Their best players are in their WR, RB, and Defensive Back units.

It doesn't take a brainiac to know what the Irish are going to attack the Aztecs: on the ground. The Irish have said they are going to be a running team this season, and this is the perfect team to test run our ground attack on. I fully expect all 3 Irish running backs (#5 Armando Allen, #33 Robert Hughes (sophmores), and #34 James Aldridge (jr) ) will all get at least 10 carries in this game. I predict the Irish will have 300 yards rushing, and about 225 passing. Jimmy will throw 2 TDs, 1 Int, and then we will have 4 rushing TDs from the backs (Armando with 1, Hughes with 2, Aldridge with 1). Jimmy's passing TDs will be to Duval Kamara (soph WR) and Will Yeatman (TE, junior).

Jon Tenuta (pictured) and Corwin Brown's defense will create 3 turnovers (2 ints, 1 fumble), as well as racking up 4 sacks and 2 celebration penalties. The energy on the Irish defense will be crystal clear to all observers.

Final Score - Irish 45 Aztecs 17