Sparty Wins . . . Again

Make it 9 wins in their last 12 meetings with the Irish. To say the Spartans have our number would be pretty spot on. Man I miss Jonelle Smith . . .

 

Michigan St beat the Irish 23-7 on Saturday. My predicted close loss for the Irish was not fully correct, but I did predict a losing effort for the Irish in a winnable game. It was winnable, although the Irish clearly did not deserve to win. Here are a few straight from the hip thoughts about the Irish:

• Rushing Offense  -  Awful by the Irish. How this year's team managed fewer yards rushing against the Spartans than the 2007 team (40 yards vs 150 yards) is baffling. No matter what running back, we could not get any headway. The coaching staff better fix this soon. I hope its fixable  -  because it really looks like our guys are just getting beat.
• Brandon Walker and the Irish Kicking Game get an F-. Absolutely embarrassing and awful. See the rest of my post, and you will hear a tone of not being upset but positive criticism and a belief in what we are doing. I have patience in all aspects of the 2008 Irish, except no longer in the kicking game. The left footed kicker never even gets close to making a field goal, and his ball hooks every single time. If walker makes one or both of the missed field goals on Saturday, more pressure on the Spartans might have benefited the Irish defense and changed the game. Put someone else in, anyone, because this kid has proven over and over again that he CANNOT kick. Period.
• Defense  -  Looked very solid with an A grade to the defensive backs, B grade the linebackers, and a C to the defensive line. Up until the late 70 yard run by Ringer, we had held him to 130 yards on 35 carries, which was acceptable. The defensive backs continue to defend deep balls perfectly (Raeshon McNeil - I'm looking at you  -  nice defense yet again on the deep pass in the end zone) and the safeties are playing lights out. Against the pass, we are as good as we have been in 10 years, easily. Against the run, we lack the big talented bodies on the line right now. But we are much closer to stopping the run and solidifying the defense than we are to effectively running the ball on offense.
• Passing Offense   -  Looked fantastic at times, but inconsistent. We you cant run the ball at all, passing the ball is more difficult. This is what faced Clausen and the Irish and I think we had no trouble moving the ball on the Spartans. Freshman Michael Floyd and Sophomore Golden Tate are already fantastic players and will make the Irish a good passing team this year, and a great team in the years to come. I predict in 2010 (2 years) that the Irish passing attack will be the best in the history of Notre Dame. I think Clausen could be like Brady Quinn, although we don't know yet. The big key is that the WRs will be the best collection of WR talent ND has ever had, period. Samardzija and Stoval were good, but these guys are younger, faster, and will be better.

The Irish are now 2-1. After the Michigan game, the koolaid drinking gained a lot of momentum with Irish fans, who began to raise their expectations quite a bit. I think in the back of some fans' minds, there were images of riding into the Coliseum at Thanksgiving to take on the Trojans, both teams sitting at 11-0. That's ridiculous in two ways. First, 11-0 heading into the last game is crazy. Second, to even think the game with USC will be a close or barely competitive game is absurd. Am I the only sane Irish fan around?

 

Coach Weis said, "You are what you are  -  and right now you're a 6-6 football team", when he was hired. Well, its an objective gut check time for the Irish fan base. WE are what WE are, and I think the following:

• 1 year removed from being a 3-9 team, hapless all over the field
• Very young all over the field; against Michigan, all 5 touchdowns were scored by true sophomores
• 2-1  -  with a chance to win the one game we lost
• Likely favored by Las Vegas in at least 5, maybe 6 of the 9 remaining games (I presume we are favored against Purdue, Stanford, Navy, Syracuse, and @Washington ; not favored @ North Carolina, @ Boston College, or @ USC; tossup being at home against Pitt)
• And most of all  - still on pace for a bowl game, the only logical goal for a team recovering from an awful season

I predicted 7-5 back in my preseason prediction. Yes, I predicted the Irish to be 2-1 at this point also, but with a loss to Michigan and a victory over Michigan St. Nonetheless, we are still on pace for the Meineke Car Care Bowl bid that I predicted. Miami is slightly above pace to meet us in that bowl game, but anything can happen.

Michigan St. Spartans Preview

Notre Dame @ Michigan St.   -  Saturday, 2:30pm Central time (9:30pm in Germany, where I currently am)

 

Michigan St. is favored by 9 points for a reason  -  they own the Irish, and matchup very well against the Irish weakness, the defensive line/run defense. Michigan St.'s new coach Mark D'Antonio is old school   -  run the football. Last weekend, All American Running Back Javon Ringer ran 48 times for 270 yards! against Florida Atlantic, albeit in the rain. They don't run a spread, but rather have a 300 point lineman in all 5 spots and line up in traditional fullback sets like the power i. The Irish are going to likely need to keep Ringer under 200 yards to have a chance, barring lots of turnovers or a lack of scoring somehow. Hoyer is a more than adequate passer as well, as Michigan St. typically has underrated but very talented college WRs (Derrick Mason, Plaxico Burress, Charles Rodgers, last year's 1st WR taken Devin Thomas).

 

Prediction #1  -  Javon Ringer will have 155 yards rushing

Prediction #2  -  QB Hoyer will have 150 yards passing

 

Obviously I am predicting a big offensive day for the Spartans, a very balanced attack. DAntonio will go the air more as the Irish load the box to stop the run. The Spartans are easily the best offensive team that we have played, and are far superior on offense to the Wolverines.

 

Michigan St's defense however, has much to be desired. Their run offense does shorten the game and give their defense a good rest. Michigan St's defense is giving up 350 yards total offense per game, compared to the Wolverines 280. In addition, the Spartans are giving up 4.5 yards per rush, compared the Wolverines 1.8. Michigan St lost a close battle to Cal, but has played Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic the past two weeks.

 

The Irish should have a good day on the ground and in the air against the Michigan St defense, assuming Clausen and the offensive line continue improving. The only variable here is how the Irish will respond to their first road test in a hostile environment like East Lansing, where bitterness of being #2 in Michigan and a hatred of the Irish combine with alcohol to form some nasty situations (trust me, the Pope knows).

 

Prediction #3  -  The Irish will have 175 yards team rushing  -  Armando Allen with 75, Hughes with 50, Alridge with 50, a balanced attack.

 

Prediction #4  -  The Irish will have 175 yards passing

 

Prediction #5  -  Clausen will throw two interceptions, one tipped and one bad pass

 

This will be a good football game, perhaps one of the best of the year. Both teams will have a balanced offense, and this game will be high scoring. I would expect this game to be near the 30s for each team. The best player on the field (Ringer) and the home crowd give the Spartans the final score and a close, hard fought victory. Irish cover, but lose:

 

Michigan St. Spartans  -  31     Notre Dame Fightin' Irish   -  28

 

I hope I'm wrong

Apologies from Vatican Smoke

Below, in my post last Thursday, I predicted the Irish would beat the Wolverines by the score of 38 to 14. I was wrong. The Irish only won 35-17, so obviously my credibility is now shot. Read the pregame preview below, pretty interesting to read it after the fact. Here is a recap of my predictions:

Prediction 1  >>  Michigan would have 150 yards rushing, 75 yards passing.  Not bad, Michigan had 159 yards rushing. But, they had 229 yards passing.

 

Prediction 2  >>  Michigan's QBs will have at least 2 turnovers. Try like 4 or 5. Michigan's QB was intercepted 2 times, fumbled a snap once, and was involved in another two fumbles (one on a handoff, one on a backwards pass). The Michigan QB play was a big reason the Irish won.

 

Prediction 3  >>  The Irish will rush for 75 yards and throw for 250. The Irish rushed for 113 yards, and passed for 150. Granted, in the second half, all we did was run the ball to preserve the lead and due to the rain. We could have passed for 200 easily, but didn't need to.

 

Prediction 4  >>  Michigan's defense will recover 1 Irish fumble, have 1 interception, and have 1 sack of Clausen. Pretty good by the Irish considering the rain. ND fumbled 3 times but lost Zero of them, Clausen had 2 interceptions, and for the 2nd straight week, the OLine gave up 0 sacks. Through 2 games, 0 sacks. UNREAL!! Last season's 5 sack average per game is going to be beaten this year.

 

Prediction 5  >>  The Irish will run 4 screen passes for a total of 50 yards. The Irish ran 1, maybe 2, and they were completely blown up and unsuccessful. I still say the offense cannot be complete until we can effectively use the screen pass.

 

Prediction 6  >>  Predicted score, Irish 38 Michigan 14. Not bad, 35-17 was your final.

 

Hard to measure all these predictions, but I would say I did a pretty good job considering the score. The Irish offense was better on passing that I thought they would be, even though passing yards were explainably low (weather and 2nd half lead). The new found ability for the Irish to have a quick strike to Golden Tate or Michael Floyd is the single biggest surprise and success of this new season. Defenses will have to worry about the deep ball, which always opens more options across the middle, short, and in the running game.

 

What a fantastic gameplan by Weis!! The defensive front 7 of Michigan were stout, as I and everyone else knew. Weis didn't try to run the ball into that  -  but instead planned to take a lot of play action deep pass chances early in the game, in hopes of getting a lead and creating pressure for a young Michigan team. It worked, with deep balls galore to Golden Tate and true freshman Michael Floyd.

 

Tough game this week   -  and don't think I'm done posting about this win. I will definitely have some upcoming thoughts for all of you out there that think the Irish were "given" the game. We were served the game, but the Irish still had to finish the Wolverines, which we did. More on that later.

Michigan Game Preview

Michigan and Notre Dame square off in South Bend this weekend. This marks the first meeting between coaches Rich Rodriguez and Charlie Weis, while its Weis' 4th time against the Wolverines. Kickoff is at 2:30pm central time - here is a quick rundown of what to watch for on each side of the ball, with some of my predictions mixed in via bullet points below.

• When Michigan has the football . . . the key here for the Irish will be stopping the spread offense running game. Michigan will play both QBs (Threet, Sheridan), as well as 3 or more RBs, Minor and McGuffie being the main guys. Both RBs are improving and are different types of backs, Minor being more power inside, with McGuffie being more speed outside. Michigan's passing game has been abysmal through 2 games, so that should help us allocate defenders to the run. Notre Dame must stop the running game and let our defensive backs matchup with the Michigan WRs man to man. This will give us the best chance to leave more guys to defend the run and pressure the QB.
• Prediction: Michigan will have 150 yard rushing, 75 yards passing
• Prediction: Notre Dame's pressure will cause at least 2 turnovers from Michigan QBs Threet or Sheridan (both will play).
• When Notre Dame has the football . . . its a line battle, plain and simple. If Michigan's very talented defensive line - headlined by all 4 returning starters from last year - can cause even close to the destruction it caused against the ND offensive line last year, then this game will be over before it starts. ND's line will be improved, but getting 100 yards on the ground will be a necessity - Michigan's average yards rushing given up so far this year is 45 yards, through 2 games. At the minimum, the Irish must protect Jimmy Clausen. Anymore than 3 sacks given up will make this game difficult to win.
• Prediction: The Irish rush for 75 yards, while passing for 250
• Prediction: Michigan's defense will have 1 fumble, 1 interception, and 1 sack
• Blitzing Irish Defense >> One thing that people have harped about this week is whether the Irish should keep blitzing last week, since we only got 1 sack and San Diego St. was able to move the ball. I think the blitz caused San Diego St to make shorter passes and allowed fewer big plays than our prior years defenses. The Aztecs passed 60 times, only completing 29, for an average of 4.2 yards. That's not even a great rushing average! I say the defense played fine outside of a few bad third down shovel passes, as well as two third down penalties that continued drives that had ended. Hopefully we saved some of the more exotic blitzes for a very green Michigan Offensive Line this week.
• Screen Passes >> I will know the Charlie Weis offense of 2005-2006 is back when we start executing screen passes to perfection. Last year the screen game was a complete joke, and that took away a huge piece of the Weis offensive arsenal. Screens can be extremely effective against a blitzing defense, or one where the defensive line is running rampant through the Offensive Line. However, its a very difficult play to execute for the offense, down to the timing, tempo, and all the things that have to go right at the same time. But when it does work, man is it pretty. I think we are gonna have to execute the screen play well against Michigan to have a chance.
• Prediction: The Irish will run 4 screen plays for 50 yards, with plays of 3, 5, 30, and 12. 3 passes to Armando Allen, 1 to Robert Hughes.
• Enjoy this screen play from the Pittsburgh game, the first game of 2005 and of Weis' coaching career. This, my friends, is how you run a screen play.

Prediction Time: The Michigan defensive line's dominance over the Irish OLine is the unavoidable roadblock for many trying to pick the Irish to win this one. Even the corners for Michigan are very experienced and are going to cover our young WRs much better than San Diego St. Michigan's offense has looked bad through 2 games - I'm betting they don't look any better on Saturday either.

I am a completely biased homer of a moron. I cannot fully explain why I am predicting this, because logic and matchups discussed above would denote otherwise. I think the Irish are going to come out swinging against a punchless opponent. Electricity and confidence and hope and fire and passion and pure adrenaline will return to Notre Dame stadium for the first time since 2006. The Irish will start fast . . . and end fast. We won't run over Michigan, as they will hand us the game with 3 major turnovers, all 3 of which are converted into touchdowns. The Irish will look much better than reality, which is better than reality slapping us in the face like all last season. Notre Dame is still an average or slightly above average team, at best - but the scoreboard will say otherwise on this day:


Notre Dame 38 Michigan 14

Titans Report

A very weird first week for the Titans that includes a big, dominant win as well as a confused quarterback.

• Big Win, Big Defense >> The Tennessee defense was absolutely superb on Sunday. 7 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a forced fumble, all against a good team at avoiding turnovers, the Jaguars. The divisional win, combined with the other two teams in the division (Colts & Texans) both losing, created a near picture perfect first week for the Titans. The defensive line looked unbelievable - as nearly all of that pressure came by the line alone, rarely needing blitzes to get to David Garrard. Another incredible stat from the game was the total rushing yardage - 36 yards - that the Jaguars got on 24 carries. WoW. If healthy, this defense is better than last year's team, which finished ranked #5 in the league. Scary.
• Vince Young's play, not mental state >> Vince Young looked pretty bad against the Jaguars, a very good defensive team that has always given him trouble. The whole issue this week with Vince's leadership and mental health (commented on below) is not a factor in my analysis here - but I think that Vince is never going to be the quarterback that many expect. He will never be a great pocket passer. What he can be is an amazing leader, and someone who's improvisation and speed abilities should be a stable that every defense must prepare for. Vince Young needs more called running plays and rollouts, plays which always seem more natural and easy for him. These plays will establish rhythm, and that's when he will make his big passes, after he has a feel for the game. 5 step drops and standing still will not work for Vince. He is currently injured with a sprained MCL. I say leave him out for as long as he needs to get healthy, then bring him back slowly. Vince is a leader but not someone that the Titans utterly depend on to win (ie, Tom Brady).
• Chris Johnson out of the backfield, WOW >> A fantastic debut for the rookie speedster out of East Carolina. Johnson ran a sub 4.3 40yrd dash and was a surprise 1st round pick of the Titans. Most thought he would be a change of pace back, with the bulk of the carries going to Lendale White. Wrong. Johnson got 19 carries, started the game, and easily was the best thing the Titans had going on offense. The offense really appears to be utilizing and valuing Johnson's potential, and defenses are going to have to adjust. He will either have continued success, or defenses will have to leave something else open for our offense. I expect the Tight Ends to benefit the most by less linebacker attention. And he is on my fantasy team, which rewards heavily for receptions out of the backfield, a CJ specialty. He'll be fun to watch.
• Vince Young Mental Advice >> I love Vince, and think he is a winner. Right now he is just having a hard time not having the immense success he enjoyed at Texas. I fully expect him to come out of his funk, get healthy, and lead this team. I think the Titans have a responsibility to be patient with Vince, as well as give him more chances to make plays. He is not yet and likely will never be a pure pocket passer, so we must get him going early with called run plays and more rollouts. Then Vince's natural instincts will begin flowing, giving him tempo and rhythm to make the passing plays we need. Hang in there Vince, you have a fan here at the Vatican.

Titans at the Bengals this weekend, who played poorly against the Ravens in week 1. Bengals are favored by 1, but we all remember the butt whooping the Bengals put on the Titans last season in Cincinnati in mid season. Certainly it could happen again, but I find it tough to believe the Bengals will score more than the low 20s against our defense. Kerry Collins will have a big day, my prediction:

Titans 31 Bengals 20