Commanding Respect

Monday night, the Titans unseated the Colts as the class of the AFC South division, winning 31-21 on Monday Night Football in Nashville. The win moves the Titans to 7-0, now with a 4 game lead on every divisional opponent with only 9 games left. Likely the Titans are good for a minimum of 11 wins at this point, so it would be difficult to lose the division to anyone who doesn't win out from this point on.

 

This was a big win for the Titans, but the media and MNF crew really blew everything out of proportion. Some points about the importance of this win, the media coverage, and the rest of year, in the very trusted and Vatican Smoke preferred communication method of bullets:

• Media coverage suggested that "the Titans must win this game to prove that they belong in the upper echelon of the NFL"  -  That's garbage. Win or lose this game, the Titans are at worst tied for the best record in football, and are an elite team no matter what. NFL teams lose games  -  its not college football, where good teams must go undefeated. The Titans are going to lose a game or two or three this year, and they are still going to finish the top seed in the AFC very likely.
• The MNF crew was throwing around Hyperbole after Hyperbole to describe the Tennessee Titans. Here are a few examples, not full quotes but near exactly what they (usually Tony Kornheiser) said:

"Nashville is a small town, so its nice to see that Nashville can support an NFL team."

 

Are you kidding me? Nashville is ranked anywhere from 28 to 38 depending on whether you measure the population as being the "Metropolitan area" or the actual city limits. Check it out here and here. Nashville is actually bigger than Atlanta if you just measure the actual city limits population, not the metropolitan area. Nashville is as big or a bigger market than Indianapolis. If the Titans had Peyton Manning on their team, the Colts would be the small market and the Titans the big market team in Tony's eyes.

 

"The Titans must have this win to have credibility in this league. They are going to be looked at as a fraud if they cannot win this game."

 

Seriously? A fraud for being 6-1 in the NFL. Yes, our schedule has been weak. But who else is better? The Giants at 6-1 got pummeled by the Browns, and the Bills/Patriots lost to Miami. The Cowboys are well profiled with their recent losses, and the Eagles are 4-3. Who is better than a 6-1 Titans team? Stupid analysis, creating drama out of nothing.

 

"The Titans winning this game is David finally slaying Goliath, after so many failed attempts".

 

Geeeeez. Are you serious Tony? I understand that the Colts have a record against the Titans of 8-5 since the Colts and the Titans were paired into the same division (AFC South) in 2002, but come on. Including Monday night, the Titans have won 2 in a row over the Colts, and have a 3-2 record since 2006. Yes, the Colts dominated the Titans in 2003-2005, but this is 2008 Tony.

 

As you can tell, I was a bit fired up about the portrayal the MNF crew was making. I realize they were trying to sell the game, to create drama out of a franchise that is fairly star-less and somewhat bland. The fact that we win as a team shouldn't be bland, but it is to ESPN I guess.

• The Titans should get the AFC's top seed  -  The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers are the next two best records in the AFC, sitting at 5-2. Each of them have tough divisional foes (New England and Baltimore) and will likely lose at least 1 or 2 more. If the Titans can win 13 games  -  meaning they win 6 of their last 9, I think its going to be difficult for us not to have the #1 seed. That #1 seed is huge  -  as it means a bye in the playoffs, and homefield advantage for both potential playoffs games.
• The Looming issue over the Titans, as continually alluded to by ESPN throughout the entire day, is the future of Vince Young  -  VY has barely played this season, but somehow he was the focus of every ESPN report on Monday. Everyone has an opinion of whether he will play again, what happened to him during the week 1 game, and how is college background affected everything. I am not sure what happened, and I am not a psychologist, so I am not going to try to explain what we cannot fully know. I will offer up this, and you can take it to the bank  -  Vince Young will play meaningful snaps for the Titans this season. I am not sure when, but he is going to be called upon, I promise. I want to guarantee his success, largely because he will use this experience on the sideline to learn a lot that 25 year olds don't know. I cannot do that, but this kid is a winner and I'm sticking with him.

All in all, it was a big win and a big night for the Titans. Hopefully we will get some more media coverage and respect, and keep playing for National TV audiences this year and the next. Great job so far by Coach Fisher, kudos.

Put to Sleep

Nothing can better describe the 33-7 trouncing of the Washington Huskies by the Irish on Saturday, than "put to sleep". Here is a list of everything that was "put to sleep" last Saturday night in Seattle:

• Willingham's tenure at Washington  -  a good man, but a poor football coach. I have always respected him, but have also felt ND made the right move in firing him. Washington held onto him into his 4th year, and I'm afraid that will cost them a lot in the future.
• Willingham's firing by Notre Dame  -  anyone watching the game saw the two programs and the directions each coach had led his team. Weis has ND on the rise, while Washington may be the worst team in the country. I don't enjoy the misery of Willingham, but I am glad that people who hold the "ND is racist" thoughts about our firing Willingham, no longer have anything left to say. The man was not a good football coach, he deserved to be fired, and he is still owed $5M by Notre Dame and a few more $$M by Washington. I feel sorry for him not, best of luck to Ty in his future.
• ND's road game troubles  -  the Irish first road win this season was against an awful opponent, but it was still a dominating win 3000 miles away from home.
• Me, on the couch  -  for having to watch the 2nd half. ND was killing Washington, and being his style, Weis never runs it up on other coaches, particularly with the potential sensitivity of the ND / Willingham connection. The Irish could have scored 60 points, easily, but decided to pull back the reins, run the ball, and put all 2nd stringers in for nearly the entire 4th quarter (and some in the 3rd).
• The Embarrassment of missing a bowl game in 2007  -  with a record of 5-2 and 4 winnable but difficult games left, the Irish are almost assured of a bowl birth for the 2008 season. Early reports have the Cotton Bowl as an option if the Irish can get to 8 wins, which would be in good shape if the Irish can beat either Boston College or Pittsburgh (this weekend).

Here is how the Vatican's predictions went for the Washington game (see Friday post below):

Prediction 1  >>  Jimmy will throw for 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and the biggie - ZERO interceptions.   Jimmy threw for a little over 200 yards and 1 TD, but did have 1 interception that was a tipped pass (not his fault). One of his worse games actually, but Washington was so poor defensively, that nothing more was needed.

Prediction 2  >>  The Irish will finish with 500 yards total offense, 310 in the air and 190 on the ground.  Irish finished with 459 yards of total offense, so not a bad call. We beat the ground prediction with 252 yards on the ground, easily the best Weis ground game of his tenure. The passing total was 207 yards.

Prediction 3  >>  Armando Allen hits the 100 yard rushing mark and scores 2 TDs  -  one on the ground, one in the air. Armando was held without a touchdown, as James Aldridge had both running back touchdowns. Aldridge had 84 yards, leading the way for the Irish with his best game of his career. Allen played well also, notching 62 yards. True Freshman Jonas Grey even chipped in 61 yards.

Prediction 4  >>  Irish field goal kicker Brandon Walker misses a short field goal early; his replacement David Ruffer comes in and makes a kick.  Good for Brandon Walker proving me wrong. He nails both field goals he attempts, and Ruffer misses an extra point late in the game. Walker still has the job, but the walk-on David Ruffer is still intriguing if he can get past the goose bumps.

Score prediction  >>  I predicted Irish 38, Washington 17. Not too far off, as the Irish scored 33 points and Washington scored 7. I under estimated how easily we could score on Washington, as we could have hung 50 pts easily. I also underestimated how bad Washington's defense is. They are awful. My record picking the winner in ND games is 6-1, while my record against the spread is 5-2. (I predicted every game's winner correctly, save for the North Carolina game. I also predicted a cover in the Michigan St game, but was wrong. I predicted winning but not covering against Purdue, and was wrong there as well).

 

Big week for the Irish, hosting Pitt this weekend in South Bend. I will be there, ready to cheer the Irish on to a for sure New Years Day bowl with a victory. We are going to pass the ball on their defense, and they are going to run the ball. Both gameplans will be obvious - will be interesting to see what gives. Prediction later this week, for all you gamblers out there.

Ty Bowl 2 - Preview

ND @ Washington

 

Saturday, 7pm Central time, ESPN 2 National Coverage

 

I hate to call this game the Ty Bowl. In all honesty, I harbor no resentment for Willingham, like many message board warriors out there. He was not the right fit for ND, and in all actuality is not a good football coach. Luckily we saw that and cut the cord early, because I cannot imagine where our program would be if Ty had been allowed to stay another year or two. The recruiting he didn't do is not the only reason, but was a significant factor in the 2007 season. But I digress . . .

 

Willingham is on his way out, and a knockout blow could be delivered by the Irish on Saturday. However, this game is not about Willingham or Weis and the jobs they have done. Willingham has clearly failed, and the jury is still out on Weis but signs are point up. This game is about a young ND team trying to win on the road for the first time this season. Both road games thus far have been at ranked opponents. While competitive in both games, the Irish came up short, largely on youth and immaturity instead of talent in the eyes of many. Can the Irish close out a game on the road? Can the Irish avoid road turnovers (8 in 2 road games this year)?

 

On top of the whether a young ND team can win on the road, the fact is that this Washington team is awful. Likely the worst team the Irish will play this season, except for possibly Syracuse. Here is a quick summary of Washington's rankings in NCAA Div 1-A statistics (out of 119 teams)  -  I got all these from a cool NCAA stats website, very easy to use:

• Passing offense  -  Washington is 57th at 217 yards per game; Irish are 17th nationally at 272 yards per game
• Rushing offense  -  Washington is 106th with 103 ypg; Irish are 108th with 101 ypg
• Pass defense  -  Washington is 98th with 250 ypg given up; Irish are 87th with 231 ypg
• Rush defense  -  Washington is 115th at 233 ypg; Irish are 60th at 136 ypg
• Points scored  -  Washington is 108th at 17.7 ppg; Irish are 62nd at 25.5 ppg
• Points given up  -  Washington is 115th at 40.7ppg; Irish are 41st with 20.7ppg

Wow. Washington is an awful football team. Their rushing offense is 106th, and their rushing defense is awful at 115th. Pass defense is 98th for Washington, going against the 17th best passing offense in the country in the Irish. Washing is giving up 40.7 points per game . . . and only scoring 17.7pts per game. They are 0 and 6, so I guess I should not be surprised.

 

I look for the Irish offense to have a field day against Washington, assuming they can take care of the ball. I hope that we start the game passing, and then once they step back to defend the pass, then we run the ball. Similar to the North Carolina game, which was a fantastic offensive display except for turnovers. Here are a few predictions for you:

• Prediction 1  >>  Jimmy will throw for 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and the biggie - ZERO interceptions.
• Prediction 2  >>  The Irish will finish with 500 yards total offense, 310 in the air and 190 on the ground.
• Prediction 3  >>  Armando Allen hits the 100 yard rushing mark and scores 2 TDs  -  one on the ground, one in the air.
• Prediction 4  >>  Irish field goal kicker Brandon Walker misses a short field goal early; his replacement  -  walk on David Ruffer, (who just joined the team during the bye week, after the coaches spotted him at a dorm football game. came into practice and nailed all of his kicks, in full speed with pads, and a defense) will attempt his first field gaol in the 2nd half, nailing the 40 yarder, instantly becoming ND's starting kicker and a cult hero of sorts.

Game prediction time:

 

Irish   38     Washington  17

 

(the Vatican's record is 5-1 straight up, 4-2 vs the points)

Titans: "Ballin"

6 - 0

Yes, its pretty amazing. The Tennessee Titans continued the old school style dominance of its opponents in 2008, steamrolling the hapless Chiefs 34-10. The scoreboard was much closer than the game was.

Here are some stats of two very good rushing performances from this past weekend. One is in college, one is in the NFL. Which one is the Titans, Team A or Team B?

(Team A had 332 yards rushing, 8.3 ypc. Team B had 327 yards rushing, good for 8.8 ypc)

The point is that these stats are indistinguishable, and you cant tell a difference between the two. Team A is the Titans, while Team B is Utah, who racked up these yards this past weekend against Colorado St. Amazing that the Titans were able to rack up ridiculous NCAA type stats against an NFL team.

Without a doubt, the Titans are a good team with Lendale White at Running Back. But once again, Chris Johnson is the spark, the difference maker, that gives the offense its teeth.

Ask any baseball hitter what pitch he can hit the easiest and he will tell you a fastball. Its straight and the velocity provides you with built in power off your bat. But ask any great hitter what the most effective pitch of most great pitchers is, and they will tell you fastball. How can the same pitch be the most effective and the easiest to hit? Hitting a fastball is about a timing and vision. If you know its coming, its just see and put bat head to the ball - all the power is generated for you. But when you get thrown a few slow pitches, your timing and eye level must change in order to hit. Being thrown a 75mph change up along with a 95 mph fastball is incredibly more difficult to hit than the same 95mph fastball being thrown over an over. Chris Johnson is the fastball, Lendale is the changeup. They compliment each other by forcing a defense to change its timing, vision, and physicality to defend the run.

Kudos to the Titans for drafting Chris Johnson - who many, including myself, did not want to draft. We figured we had a running back already. The Titans got a 2 for 1 in drafting Johnson, because they added a running back AND made our current running back more effective.

The Chiefs failed miserably at defending either White or Johnson, who both eclipsed 150 yards rushing. In fact, each had TD runs of over 60 yards, Lendale with an 80 yard run himself. A solid performance by in a typical Jeff Fisher way - run the ball, defend the run, pressure the QB. Passing yardage is a distant priority.

Next week, Monday night affair in Nashville against the Colts. I think that one could get ugly, but I'll make a prediction next week once I calm down.

MLB - Wha Happnd?

October is the best month on the sports calendar. College and Pro football machines are going with important games occurring every weekend of the month. The NBA is right around the corner, with exhibition games going on. College Basketball March Madness is getting ready to begin. The NHL has already started (yes, it still exists). But the key to October's sports magic for me and many Americans, is October playoff baseball.

Unfortunately, playoff baseball TV ratings have dropped through the years, as seen in the chart in this internet link with article here. The playoffs ratings drop obviously reflects a decline in the popularity of baseball. Most agree that the youth of America - specifically those under the age of 40 - are much less interested in baseball than earlier generations were. This trend does not bode well for the future, as Generation Y and X continue to grow as a % of the American population. How has baseball lost a lot of its fans, the "youth" of America?

• Baseball's Overly Capitalistic and "Republican" Structure - While the Pope sympathizes with the Republicans and Free Market-ers in real life, in baseball, these agendas have caused much more havoc then help. Baseball currently sits in a position where the top 20% of teams are as financially strong as any in sport - but the bottom 20% are as weak as just about any team in sports. The Yankees have a payroll of right around $200 million, while the lowly Royals have a payroll near $50 million. The revenue streams are equally dwarfing, with the Yankees grossing near $275 million (per Forbes)per year, while the Royals struggle to get near $100 million. The answer to this obvious problem was "Revenue sharing" for baseball, where the top teams give back some of their revenue to the bottom teams. This uneven landscape has made it difficult to consistently win - note the stress on the word consistently. Oakland, Tampa Bay, the Marlins, the Twins, are all examples of teams with low payrolls that win. But most do not consistently win, and they always lose their superstars to free agency. Without stars for fans to attach to for many years, and without consistent winning, it will continue to be difficult for teams to be financially viable and grow their fanbase.
• Football - More people watching football means less people watching playoff baseball. Pretty simple. Baseball's decline has been as much attributed to football's rapid growth in the past 15 years in particular. Check out this link, which shows the top ranking cable programs from last week (week ending October 5th 2008), you can see that a regular season MNF game on cable ESPN - nothing more than middle of the road NFL fodder - got 11.7 million viewers. The most watched MLB playoff game last week (on cable, not the NLCS on Fox, which incidentally produced near 7.5M viewers) got 6.2M viewers. The reasons more fans are watching the NFL are numerous, but to me the most important is the economic and political landscape of the league, as the NFL developed a model of parity, where any team in any market can be good. With the consistent revenue streams available to each team, as well as the salary cap, the league is one where any team can afford to spend the money and bring in a big free agent. The rising star baseball player that plays for the Royals will never stay there - he will leave when his first contract is up, because the Royals can only offer barely half of what other teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs could offer him. Not so in the NFL, which allows more stars to stay on one team, which exponentially grows and strengthens fan bases.

How does baseball address this problem? First the business side . . .

• Salary Cap >> I don't think a salary cap alone is the answer, but I think its a big start. The ability for the Royals, Twins, and Devil Rays just to resign their young stars will single handedly increase their competitiveness, increase the fan base's attachment to a team via the players, and help players become "stars". League's are built upon star power, which I think is more easily cultivated when a player stays with one team. Moving from team to team takes some of the player's likability away, as he is seen as a MERC; thus his chance of being truly beloved declines. A salary cap would allow the bottom revenue teams a more consistent chance at winning.
  
  Many of you may argue that now is not the best time to make the argument for a salary cap, with the Rays on the cusp of the World Series (last night's comeback by the Red Sox was ridiculous). I could not agree less. The Rays have been in existence for 11 seasons, finishing last in the AL East 9 times, 4th place 1 time, and then winning the division this year. That is not consistently winning. I promise you, that if Tampa Bay would have won their division 4 times in those years, their fan base and revenue streams would be at least 10 to 15% higher.

Next comes the marketing side to my solution to baseball . . .

• More double headers, more daytime games >> Quite simply, Baseball needs the young fans to watch and car. To do that, the most old fashioned game must make some drastic changes. I am not a marketing expert, but I would start with ways to change the fan experience in the stands. Have more double headers, more daytime games, and do everything you can to give free tickets to schools so kids go to games and bring their parents. Obvious promotions need to be ramped up, as baseball must continue the American cliche of the boy skipping school to go to the ballpark with Dad. Double headers could be 2 games for the price of 1, and also could shorten the season. Schedule about 10 of these a year and you have just cut a week and a half off the season, which is already to long.
• Showcase the drama of playoff baseball >> Playoff baseball is very dramatic, but poorly marketed in my opinion. Lengthen the divisional series to 7 games, and get all the broadcasts on the major networks (sorry TBS). Get more games on during primetime hours, and mandate that all games must be sold out or tickets are given away to kids for free.
• Shorten the regular season >> This recommendation could be the result of more double headers, and will contribute to an earlier and longer showcase of the playoffs. Don't even decrease the number of games, but decrease the time from opening day until the playoffs begin. The NBA and the NHL continue to stay relevant simply because of how long and exciting their playoffs are. Baseball needs to take heed, and even consider adding a round to the mix.

No matter what changes are or are not made, the big market teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, and Cardinals will always prop baseball up. My fear is that baseball will look at total revenues and total attendance - generated disproportionately by the aforementioned teams - and feel that baseball as a whole is "healthy". True health will be when the smaller markets (Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Oakland) can financially compete with the big boys, just like the smaller markets in the NFL. Once the financial and economic playing field are leveled, then marketing in these small markets can really take off.