MLB - Wha Happnd?

October is the best month on the sports calendar. College and Pro football machines are going with important games occurring every weekend of the month. The NBA is right around the corner, with exhibition games going on. College Basketball March Madness is getting ready to begin. The NHL has already started (yes, it still exists). But the key to October's sports magic for me and many Americans, is October playoff baseball.

Unfortunately, playoff baseball TV ratings have dropped through the years, as seen in the chart in this internet link with article here. The playoffs ratings drop obviously reflects a decline in the popularity of baseball. Most agree that the youth of America - specifically those under the age of 40 - are much less interested in baseball than earlier generations were. This trend does not bode well for the future, as Generation Y and X continue to grow as a % of the American population. How has baseball lost a lot of its fans, the "youth" of America?

• Baseball's Overly Capitalistic and "Republican" Structure - While the Pope sympathizes with the Republicans and Free Market-ers in real life, in baseball, these agendas have caused much more havoc then help. Baseball currently sits in a position where the top 20% of teams are as financially strong as any in sport - but the bottom 20% are as weak as just about any team in sports. The Yankees have a payroll of right around $200 million, while the lowly Royals have a payroll near $50 million. The revenue streams are equally dwarfing, with the Yankees grossing near $275 million (per Forbes)per year, while the Royals struggle to get near $100 million. The answer to this obvious problem was "Revenue sharing" for baseball, where the top teams give back some of their revenue to the bottom teams. This uneven landscape has made it difficult to consistently win - note the stress on the word consistently. Oakland, Tampa Bay, the Marlins, the Twins, are all examples of teams with low payrolls that win. But most do not consistently win, and they always lose their superstars to free agency. Without stars for fans to attach to for many years, and without consistent winning, it will continue to be difficult for teams to be financially viable and grow their fanbase.
• Football - More people watching football means less people watching playoff baseball. Pretty simple. Baseball's decline has been as much attributed to football's rapid growth in the past 15 years in particular. Check out this link, which shows the top ranking cable programs from last week (week ending October 5th 2008), you can see that a regular season MNF game on cable ESPN - nothing more than middle of the road NFL fodder - got 11.7 million viewers. The most watched MLB playoff game last week (on cable, not the NLCS on Fox, which incidentally produced near 7.5M viewers) got 6.2M viewers. The reasons more fans are watching the NFL are numerous, but to me the most important is the economic and political landscape of the league, as the NFL developed a model of parity, where any team in any market can be good. With the consistent revenue streams available to each team, as well as the salary cap, the league is one where any team can afford to spend the money and bring in a big free agent. The rising star baseball player that plays for the Royals will never stay there - he will leave when his first contract is up, because the Royals can only offer barely half of what other teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs could offer him. Not so in the NFL, which allows more stars to stay on one team, which exponentially grows and strengthens fan bases.

How does baseball address this problem? First the business side . . .

• Salary Cap >> I don't think a salary cap alone is the answer, but I think its a big start. The ability for the Royals, Twins, and Devil Rays just to resign their young stars will single handedly increase their competitiveness, increase the fan base's attachment to a team via the players, and help players become "stars". League's are built upon star power, which I think is more easily cultivated when a player stays with one team. Moving from team to team takes some of the player's likability away, as he is seen as a MERC; thus his chance of being truly beloved declines. A salary cap would allow the bottom revenue teams a more consistent chance at winning.
  
  Many of you may argue that now is not the best time to make the argument for a salary cap, with the Rays on the cusp of the World Series (last night's comeback by the Red Sox was ridiculous). I could not agree less. The Rays have been in existence for 11 seasons, finishing last in the AL East 9 times, 4th place 1 time, and then winning the division this year. That is not consistently winning. I promise you, that if Tampa Bay would have won their division 4 times in those years, their fan base and revenue streams would be at least 10 to 15% higher.

Next comes the marketing side to my solution to baseball . . .

• More double headers, more daytime games >> Quite simply, Baseball needs the young fans to watch and car. To do that, the most old fashioned game must make some drastic changes. I am not a marketing expert, but I would start with ways to change the fan experience in the stands. Have more double headers, more daytime games, and do everything you can to give free tickets to schools so kids go to games and bring their parents. Obvious promotions need to be ramped up, as baseball must continue the American cliche of the boy skipping school to go to the ballpark with Dad. Double headers could be 2 games for the price of 1, and also could shorten the season. Schedule about 10 of these a year and you have just cut a week and a half off the season, which is already to long.
• Showcase the drama of playoff baseball >> Playoff baseball is very dramatic, but poorly marketed in my opinion. Lengthen the divisional series to 7 games, and get all the broadcasts on the major networks (sorry TBS). Get more games on during primetime hours, and mandate that all games must be sold out or tickets are given away to kids for free.
• Shorten the regular season >> This recommendation could be the result of more double headers, and will contribute to an earlier and longer showcase of the playoffs. Don't even decrease the number of games, but decrease the time from opening day until the playoffs begin. The NBA and the NHL continue to stay relevant simply because of how long and exciting their playoffs are. Baseball needs to take heed, and even consider adding a round to the mix.

No matter what changes are or are not made, the big market teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, and Cardinals will always prop baseball up. My fear is that baseball will look at total revenues and total attendance - generated disproportionately by the aforementioned teams - and feel that baseball as a whole is "healthy". True health will be when the smaller markets (Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Oakland) can financially compete with the big boys, just like the smaller markets in the NFL. Once the financial and economic playing field are leveled, then marketing in these small markets can really take off.