Waiting

Many people have asked me this week what I thought about the UConn loss. Others have made statements around me like "Man, that UConn loss has got to be the worst loss in ND history". Nearly all of the people that make these comments or ask questions about the loss, quite frankly, just don't "get it". 


Notre Dame is waiting for a new football coach. One game here, another there, they don't matter as much as who will be heading the program in the next week. Watching the UConn game was the least frustrating and most peaceful viewing of a Notre Dame game that I have ever had. Rooting for the Irish to win is a given - but losing to UConn would only make the coaching change more inevitable. Moving on with a new coach is what we need - and beating UConn & Stanford would have been some momentum in the opposite direction. That's why the UConn game was so stress free for me - there was benefit no matter what the outcome. And don't downplay UConn  -  these guys have a solid football team that have lost 3 games in the final 30 seconds to good teams. 

So what's the outlook on new coaches? Hopefully we will know more in a weeks time. I think that other than Jon Gruden, the candidate must have a proven head coaching track record in college. Brian Kelly (pictured), Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Gary Patterson, and Paul Johnson all fit that bill. Make no mistake about it - while the ND job will attract tons of very tough attention and pressure, ND is still a place where you can win - and win next season. Here is a very scientific formula for you:  A new defensive minded coach + returning talent + recruiting (85% of commitments said they will keep their pledges unless a crazy hire is made) + the fact that all 6 losses were close games (4pts, 7pts, 2pts, 5pts, 3pts, whatever to Stanford) + another favorable schedule in 2010  =  a great chance to win 8 games next year. Having an average defense would have won the Irish 9 games, maybe more this season. Just think if Charlie could have ever gotten a defense  -  he'd still be our coach next year. 


For Charlie's sake, I hope the Irish come out to play for him against Stanford. The Cardinal run game is going to be tough to stop, so if I were the Irish, I would come out guns blazing and let Jimmy do what he does - throw it around the yard. Certainly it would make sense for us to establish a rushing attack. We will never be able to truly rush the ball with authority while we have such a good QB and WR core. Lets do what we are good at (passing the rock), which happens to be Stanford's biggest weakness (pass defense). However, I don't expect this game to show us anything new about the Irish or Charlie Weis. Another close game and frustrating loss awaits Irish fans (as I predicted in the preseason, a loss to Stanford):


IRISH     27      STANFORD   34


(Vatican Smoke is 7-4 picking the winners, and 7-4 against the spread as well) 


Remember this  -  things are never as bad or as good as they seem. There are some talented young players on our team waiting for a new coach, and some small improvements could have made a 3 to 4 game difference this season. We arent as far away from respectability as the media will have you believe. Brighter days are ahead. 


Have a great thanksgiving!! There will be tons of good stuff to discuss in the coming two weeks, so stay tuned Irish fans. 

UConn Game Preview

Tomorrow the Irish unfortunately play a game that is quite possibly the least anticipated game in recent memory. The game is nothing more than an afterthought at this point, with the current coaching administration seemingly on its way out. The game versus UConn is supposed to be a solid November matchup that is meaningful for bowl aspirations and for seniors (its senior day). Unfortunately the game has lost all luster because most fans don't see anything new or exciting come from the Weis coaching staff in game 61 as we've come to fear in the first 60 iterations. 


Instead of a game preview, here's a different take on the game tomorrow. Being senior day, there have been some good writeups like this one about the current senior class - Weis's first full recruiting class that he signed in February of 2006. This 28 man class was the class that got the recruiting train rolling for Weis, with the class finishing as the #8 ranked class in the nation. This class marked the beginning of what was going to be the journey towards the return to national top 10. Unfortunately, the class did more for our hopes than it did on the field. The 2006 recruiting class embodies the Weis era in a lot of ways. Each started out with success and was instantly a symbol of the continuous improvement that was surely ahead. Being ranked #8 as a recruiting class, the sentiment was that these guys would lay the foundation for the future, and Weis would recruit even better once he built upon this foundation. Just like for Weis, the promise of this class slowly started to erode. An astounding number of players transfered - 10 - including the loss of 5 four star players (interestingly enough, one 4 star player will be suiting up as the starting QB for Connecticut, Zach Frazier, who lost out to Jimmy Clausen in 2007). Great article covering this class in the Chicago Tribune by Brian Hamilton, here. 


Just like the 2006 recruiting class, can't blame everything on Coach Weis. Ultimately he will take the blame - because he is the coach and the "buck stops there". But certainly Weis was handed a top heavy roster that collapsed in 2007 and 2008, based on the lack of recruiting by his predecessor. The 2006 class was mostly good kids that loved Notre Dame - mostly honest and hard working, - just like Coach Weis. The class and coach that were supposed to be the savior are not terrible failures, but I'd prefer to view each as honest efforts that came up short. Sure, thats going soft on them. But the damage has been done - do we really need to keep pointing the finger, dancing over their grave? On senior day, these 2006 class seniors deserve their senior day; Lord knows they have been through a wild 4 years. Just like Weis, they deserve to leave with dignity, not indignation. 


I hope the Irish kick UConn's ass tomorrow - and play their best game of the season. However, as much as I want to see Weis and these seniors leave on a decent high note, I cannot bring myself to expect a breakthrough performance for Weis in game 60, or these seniors in game 48. Prediction:


Notre Dame    27        UConn    24


(Vatican Smoke record straight up picking the Irish games is 7-3 on the season; 6-4 against the spread)

The Beginning of the End

With the loss to Pitt last weekend, most believe that the Charlie Weis era will end after the Stanford game next weekend. We are at the beginning of an annoying amount of media speculation, "updates" and other fodder that will be on every tv show, print newspaper, or magazine that covers sports. Personally, I will hate the two weeks because the games seem relatively meaningless until we know the fate of Coach Weis. Football fans are supposed to be excited about watching the games, but likely most ND fans are considerably less excited than normal for the final 2 games against UConn and Stanford. 


Remember over the next few weeks, that daily ESPN "updates" are typically nothing more than regurgitated quotes and speculation - rarely offering any true insight to the situation. If Athletics Director Jack Swarbrick is half the sensible business man he appears to be, his decision and the coaching search (if needed) will be as tight lipped as humanly possible. Information leaks to the media will only fuel the fire, typically resulting in coaches in speculation getting raises or extensions, or releasing statements saying they "aren't interested in Notre Dame". These measures are often incredibly selfish, using the ND coaching search for personal gain, based on pure rumor or hearsay and not actual interest by Notre Dame. My favorite was back 5 years ago when Mark Mangino (Kansas coach), "pulled his name out of the ND coaching search". Thanks Mark, I doubt we were interested. 


We've established that no one - not ESPN, not "IRISHFAN" handle on your favorite message board, nor your cousin that supposedly is friends with Charlie Weis's family  -  no one knows whether Weis will officially be fired, or who his replacement might be. So now, we can move on not to speculation on whats actually going to happen, but opinions of what should happen. 


Charlie Weis should be fired by Notre Dame on Sunday, November 29th, the day after the Stanford game. 


Weis is a good man and a good, hard working coach. He has kept academics at the highest level possible, while recruiting good young men with football skills. His teams have nary had an off the field issue that was not minor in the grand scheme of a program (Tennessee, I'm looking at you!). He is an alum that gives what little time he has left to his family's charity, and he loves the school immensely. This man needs to be treated with respect and class, but alas, shown the door. 


As I've stated before, Weis will be remembered as the person who answered the key question of doubt about Notre Dame football: Can we recruit with the elite programs? The answer is a resounding yes. Notre Dame football can get enough talent to win a National Championship. Maybe not every year, and certainly there are less recruits available to us than Alabama, Florida, USC, etc. But the talent level will be there if you find the right recruiter. 


Moving on towards who the next coach should be is tough, but since this is a blog, we'll do it. Typically when teams or program fire a coach, they hire the opposite: someone with opposite traits to balance out the problems with the previous coach. We'll start with Weis's main problems that have caused him to be a failure as a head coach at Notre Dame, in my opinion:

• Lack of head coaching experience
• Lack of college head or assistant coaching experience
• Defensive coaching

All this means two candidates rise as the top two guys in addition to the another candidate who always can have the job (Urban Meyer). The two coaches that fulfill the 3 deficiencies of the Weis era are Bob Stoops (Oklahoma) and Brian Kelly (Cincinnati). More next week on these 3 candidates and why I think each would be a good head coach at Notre Dame. Pitt game preview tomorrow. 

Pitt Preview

The Irish travel to #8 ranked Pittsburgh Saturday night (7pm, ABC) in what could be the most important game of Charlie Weis's career. The Pitt Panthers are 8-1 and have control of their own destiny in the Big East conference. Pitt is very talented and will be one of the if not the best team the Irish have faced all season. Yours truly will be on hand for the game at Heinz Field, which should be around 40 degrees at gametime.

Due to traveling, not much time available for a preview. During the week reading about Pitt, it sounds like this program is really confident and ready for the Irish. The Irish are either going to be inspired or scared, and I'm not sure which. Jimmy and company should be able to move the ball a bit on the Panthers, who have a great defensive line that is near tops in the country in sacks. Pitt has been efficient offensively, balanced with the pass and the run. This has the feel of a shootout in the 30s, a close game won by the team who gets the ball last. Turnovers will obviously be key - an area the Irish have performed well in every game except last week. I expect the Irish defense and defensive line in particular to thrive upon facing a pro style offensive attack instead of the option attack.

Flat out, this has the makings of being a great football game. I expect the Irish to play one of their better games of the year, but the game to still be close and in doubt. I have to give the edge because their front 4 should be able to rush Clausen  -  allowing more defenders to drop back into coverage. The home crowd and tension building under the Weis coaching situation will also favor the Panthers; a superhuman effort from Jimmy Clausen might not be enough. Prediction:

Pitt    34     Notre Dame  31

(Vatican Smoke is 6-3 picking ND games straight up, and 5-4 against the spread)

Much Maligned

Charlie Weis has been under fire the past three years as coach of the Irish. But after last week's loss to Navy, most people feel that his fate is clearly in his hands. There was doubt and wild amounts of speculation and uncertainty toward the end of each season, with the prevailing logic that Notre Dame would retain Weis. Now, the prevailing logic is that Weis will be fired. More than ever before, Weis's job security lies in wins and losses in the coming weeks. Here is how I think it will play out with 3 games remaining (@Pitt, vs UConn, @Stanford).

If Weis wins all 3 remaining games . . . He stays. 9-3 record with a Gator or Cotton Bowl bid, as well as 3 losses by a combined 12 points, please - this is a solid season and the 2nd straight year of a 3 game improvement in the win column. Recruiting stays strong, and next year the Irish should be a solid bet to win 9 or likely more games and get to the BCS.

If Weis wins just 1 game, or loses all 3 . . . He's gone. 7-5 or 6-6 is just not going to survive. My argument below about how to handle an 8-4 Weis could be applied here, but very likely he has to go with a record of 7-5 or worse. Unless his buyout is much worse than we expect, and no one worth a damn will coach the Irish, he's gone.

If Weis wins 2 of 3 . . . Tough decision. If the one loss was another close loss to a good team like Pitt or Stanford, that would give Weis an 8-4 record with 4 losses by 20 points (or so) total, which isn't terrible (Gator Bowl bid likely). Given the buyout of 5 remaining years on Weis's contract, this could be a very tough decision to make. How do we make it? Fire Weis only if we are sure that we have a top line coach ready to accept the job. If one of the following coaches is not available or none of them are remotely interested in the ND job, keep Weis; if one of the below is available and interested, fire him:

Brian Kelly (Head Coach of Cincinnati)

Jon Gruden (Former Tampa Bay Bucs head coach)

Urban Meyer (Florida Coach)

Bob Stoops (Oklahoma  Coach)

At 8-4, without one of those guys, I say keep Weis, giving the recruiting another year to grow. Why take a chance on a lesser candidate, when Weis is clearly recruiting well enough to be competitive, and just might turn the corner with time? ND doesnt have tons of time to give to Weis to develop as a coach, but given his buyout and the lack of certainty with other coaching alternatives, I think keeping/firing Weis based on the above is a smart move.

If another coach comes in and wins, Charlie will be remembered as a coach who loved his alma matre, and worked his but off to recruit and coach as best he could. He will be the guy who got us 75% of the way there, but couldn't finish the job. 75% of college football is recruiting, and Coach Weis proved that Notre Dame can recruit elite athletes and get #1 recruiting classes yet again. The next coach will have a better program than the one Charlie inherited - a program that can attain talent but needs the final ingredient to make talent better than the sum of the parts. I am rooting for Charlie Weis, but if he has to go, he has to go. Tomorrow is a big step.