Much Maligned

Charlie Weis has been under fire the past three years as coach of the Irish. But after last week's loss to Navy, most people feel that his fate is clearly in his hands. There was doubt and wild amounts of speculation and uncertainty toward the end of each season, with the prevailing logic that Notre Dame would retain Weis. Now, the prevailing logic is that Weis will be fired. More than ever before, Weis's job security lies in wins and losses in the coming weeks. Here is how I think it will play out with 3 games remaining (@Pitt, vs UConn, @Stanford).

If Weis wins all 3 remaining games . . . He stays. 9-3 record with a Gator or Cotton Bowl bid, as well as 3 losses by a combined 12 points, please - this is a solid season and the 2nd straight year of a 3 game improvement in the win column. Recruiting stays strong, and next year the Irish should be a solid bet to win 9 or likely more games and get to the BCS.

If Weis wins just 1 game, or loses all 3 . . . He's gone. 7-5 or 6-6 is just not going to survive. My argument below about how to handle an 8-4 Weis could be applied here, but very likely he has to go with a record of 7-5 or worse. Unless his buyout is much worse than we expect, and no one worth a damn will coach the Irish, he's gone.

If Weis wins 2 of 3 . . . Tough decision. If the one loss was another close loss to a good team like Pitt or Stanford, that would give Weis an 8-4 record with 4 losses by 20 points (or so) total, which isn't terrible (Gator Bowl bid likely). Given the buyout of 5 remaining years on Weis's contract, this could be a very tough decision to make. How do we make it? Fire Weis only if we are sure that we have a top line coach ready to accept the job. If one of the following coaches is not available or none of them are remotely interested in the ND job, keep Weis; if one of the below is available and interested, fire him:

Brian Kelly (Head Coach of Cincinnati)

Jon Gruden (Former Tampa Bay Bucs head coach)

Urban Meyer (Florida Coach)

Bob Stoops (Oklahoma  Coach)

At 8-4, without one of those guys, I say keep Weis, giving the recruiting another year to grow. Why take a chance on a lesser candidate, when Weis is clearly recruiting well enough to be competitive, and just might turn the corner with time? ND doesnt have tons of time to give to Weis to develop as a coach, but given his buyout and the lack of certainty with other coaching alternatives, I think keeping/firing Weis based on the above is a smart move.

If another coach comes in and wins, Charlie will be remembered as a coach who loved his alma matre, and worked his but off to recruit and coach as best he could. He will be the guy who got us 75% of the way there, but couldn't finish the job. 75% of college football is recruiting, and Coach Weis proved that Notre Dame can recruit elite athletes and get #1 recruiting classes yet again. The next coach will have a better program than the one Charlie inherited - a program that can attain talent but needs the final ingredient to make talent better than the sum of the parts. I am rooting for Charlie Weis, but if he has to go, he has to go. Tomorrow is a big step.