What Went Wrong

Brian Kelly is off to a great public relations start to his coaching tenure at Notre Dame - already a local celebrity of sorts. Notre Dame fans are more tempered this time around, after getting overly excited at the start of the Charlie Weis and Ty Willingham eras. Coach Weis's opening press conference was exactly what the tired Notre Dame fanbase needed - energy through a display of bravado and arrogance. The Irish fans ate up that Charlie Weis opening monologue, spawning the typical "Return to Glory" and "Wake up the echoes" catch phrases. Brian Kelly's opening press conference was more like a politician's first words as an elected representative - grateful, careful, and inspiring. No matter how smooth or energetic Kelly looks, ND fans know better than to get overly excited before the first games are played. And even then, given that Weis and Willingham had arguably their best seasons in year 1, Irish fans should really wait until season 2 and 3. 


Plenty of offseason remains to talk about Kelly and changes in the Irish football program - new coaches, recruiting, etc. In this post, I am closing the book on the Charlie Weis era - a final lookback that, at least from Vatican Smoke's perspective, will serve as an obituary for one of my favorite Notre Dame figures ever. After this post, the blog will focus on the Brian Kelly era, without looking back much to the past. 


What went wrong? Two straight BCS bowls, elite recruiting, explosive offense, and optimism were the prevailing headlines of the first two years of the Charlie Weis era. How could such a talented offensive mind not win at Notre Dame - his alma matre? Here are some reasons why Charlie failed - as well as a few qualities of Charlie Weis that most Notre Dame fans should remember. 

• Charlie Weis never got a defense - neither thru recruiting or a defensive coordinator. When the Irish hired Jon Tenuta before the 2008 season, I was ecstatic. A hyper aggressive, plenty experienced DC that had manhandled the Irish in two games in 2006-07 - Tenuta appeared to bring an edge the Irish defense needed. Alas, the stubbornness and inability to adapt to the personnel at ND doomed Tenuta. Recruiting never produced consistently solid defensive lineman in enough numbers to disrupt running games or bring pressure on the quarterback.
• Coach Weis's teams never improved as the season went on. Charlie Weis's record from November 1st thru the end of the season during his 5 years was 11-13. In 2007-2009 (the last 3 seasons), his record was just 4-10 from November 1st on. Good teams get better and finish the season strong, peaking when it matters. Outside of the wins against Stanford ('07) and Hawaii ('08), the Irish lost the final game Weis's other 3 seasons. 
• Charlie never beat the elite teams - or many ranked teams for that matter. Notre Dame was just 1-8 versus top 10 ranked teams (ranked at the time of the game - the lone win being Charlie's second career game in 2005 at Michigan, a team finished 7-5); even worse really, the Irish were a terrible 4-12 against ranked teams. Charlie was 0-5 against USC, 2-3 against Michigan, and 1-2 against Boston College. I have nothing to add here. 
• Charlie's initial arrogance created a schism with some alumni that was never repaired.  Charlie's initial arrogance and unwillingness to appear at the traditional alumni events during his first two years came back to haunt him during the the 3-9 campaign of 2007, as his character description changed from "colorful and confident" to "arrogant and a$$hole". Numerous people never forgave Charlie for his early transgressions - too many people that mattered. These people pushed hard during 2007 - 2009 to get Charlie out, and eventually succeeded. 
• Coach Weis's physical limitations eventually were harmful to the program. College football players need inspiration and energy to play one of the more emotional sports around. Weis's appearance quite simply drained energy from the program. Constantly hobbling around, on crutches, or the butt of fat jokes, the program was never able to shake the image that Weis portrayed physically. The Jersey accent and hooded sweatshirts didn't impress anyone either. While not as important as the above reasons, there is no way around it - appearance matters for those who wish to lead. Do presidents and CEOs look sloppy, wearing sweatshirts, with serious weight issues? Do leaders drive around in a golf cart, always in need of physical assistance? There are certainly leaders with physical disabilities. However, a) there aren't that many and b) even fewer of them are great football coaches. 
• Charlie Weis proved that Notre Dame can recruit elite talent once again. Charlie's 5 recruiting classes at Notre Dame finished ranked 30th, 8th, 8th, 2nd, and 21st. The first class was 98% Willingham in 2005, so we will remove that, since Weis was winning a Super Bowl with the Patriots. The current commits for the next year's 2010 class are 98% Weis, so we will add the current ranking of 12th. Weis's average national ranking/finish in his 5 recruiting efforts was 10.2. Not bad. Given all the restrictions at ND, an average class ranked #10 is about as good as we can reasonably ask for. Texas's average class rank during those same 5 years was 9.8, while Florida was 6.2; yet USC was tops over those 5 years with an average class rank of 3.2.  Many thought ND could never recruit elite talent again - whether because of the location, academics, or lack of recent championships. Weis debunked that myth. 
• Charlie Weis ran a clean program - one that we are all proud of off the field. In 2009 Notre Dame football actually shared the top spot in graduation rates for Division 1-A - which is nothing short of amazing. Off the field, the worst things that happened under Weis were a few minor alcohol issues, and some on campus stuff that happens with college kids. All in all, Weis performed as expected in the off the field arena: maintaining the high standards of Notre Dame off the field, while graduating players on time. 
• Charlie Weis is a good person. Many people assume Charlie's confidence/arrogance is an indicator of the type of person he outside of football. In reality, Charlie's Jersey / Bill Parcell's type attitude was just the football Charlie. Outside of work, Charlie gives all his time to his family - quite often to the charity his wife Maura and he founded in honor of his autistic daughter (Hannah & Friends). Go to CharlieWeis.com - and see where you end up. Other coaches sell tshirts and calendars on their website. Not Charlie. 

Bottom line: Charlie is an innovative football mind that was not able to adjust quickly enough to the head coaching of college football. He was excruciatingly close in so many areas (recruiting, offense), but came up short in many others (defense, media relations, close losses). A majority of the issues with Coach Weis boil down to a lack of college football head coaching experience - clearly the #1 criteria in finding our new football coach. What Charlie Weis lacked, Brian Kelly certainly has. Will BK be successful? If the initial excitement and deflation of the Charlie Weis and Ty Willingham eras taught us anything, its that we have to temper expectations and not resort to naming a new coach savior after beating Purdue. 


We'll miss you Charlie - and we'll always remember the great times (Michigan '05, USC '05, Michigan St '06, Michigan '08). And most people, including myself, are sorry it didn't work out. We know that you love Notre Dame with all your heart, and tried your damndest to get the program back on track. You left the Notre Dame football program better off than it was when you arrived, and you'll be a ton better NFL Offensive Coordinator now because of this experience. Best of luck. 




The BK era begins . . . coaching staff should be announced within a week, and recruiting is super busy right now. Sounds like BK should be able to get a top 15 class, very possibly top 10. And a good staff as well. Stay tuned. 

The Final Hours

While nothing is official yet, it appears that Cincinnati Head Football Coach Brian Kelly will officially accept the Notre Dame coaching position this evening. I have no inside info or any sources more than you do, but some of the best in the Notre Dame coverage business (Tim Prister, Mike Frank), think that all things are pointing to Kelly. The crux of the timing is that tonight is Cincinnati's team banquet - where Kelly would almost have to address the Notre Dame job one way or another. He could have his resounding "I'm here at Cincy to stay" moment, but many educated Notre Dame people think he will reveal that he has accepted the Notre Dame job. 

Vatican Smoke has been silent during the coaching search for a few reasons. First, there really was no info that was wholeheartedly reliable. The lack of information created a vacuum for every internet rumor known to man. The guys at Blue Gray Sky even planted a rumor, tracking it from an email and a few tweets all the way to a national news source. Jack Swarbrick has played this very close to the vest - kudos to him for that. Second reason for silence - since the Irish are not going to a bowl game, we have the entire offseason to dissect the hire - as well as dissect what went wrong with the Charlie Weis era. I felt that judgement and predictions would be wasted energy until we actually hire a coach and some time. 

Bottom line here is that Vatican Smoke supports whomever Notre Dame and Jack Swarbrick hires. Swarbrick is a Notre Dame alum that is intelligent, experienced, and not an academic trying to play athletic director (Dr. Kevin White anyone?). The public is not privy to the decision process, and quite simply alums and fans must do something that should be natural to Notre Dame fans: have faith. A coaching search is hardly a matter for the Pope, but rather, I mean that we need to have faith in our Athletics Director, trusting that he will make the right choice. Everyone knows that this is one of the most important decisions Jack Swarbrick or Father Jenkins will ever make in their lives - so don't you think they want to get it right? 

Not all coaching hires are definite successes or failures. Remember, when Lou Holtz was hired, it was a very ho-hum hire, bringing in a coach who got ran out of the NFL and had been a head coach at 4 colleges. What about how we felt when Charlie was hired? Not many Irish fans thought he would fail - but rather the question was how many championships he would win, and how fast. If Charlie Weis taught us anything as ND fans, its that we'd rather be happy in 3 years than at the press conference to announce our new coach. 

Lets be patient, have faith, and reserve judgement until the proper time. 

Waiting

Many people have asked me this week what I thought about the UConn loss. Others have made statements around me like "Man, that UConn loss has got to be the worst loss in ND history". Nearly all of the people that make these comments or ask questions about the loss, quite frankly, just don't "get it". 


Notre Dame is waiting for a new football coach. One game here, another there, they don't matter as much as who will be heading the program in the next week. Watching the UConn game was the least frustrating and most peaceful viewing of a Notre Dame game that I have ever had. Rooting for the Irish to win is a given - but losing to UConn would only make the coaching change more inevitable. Moving on with a new coach is what we need - and beating UConn & Stanford would have been some momentum in the opposite direction. That's why the UConn game was so stress free for me - there was benefit no matter what the outcome. And don't downplay UConn  -  these guys have a solid football team that have lost 3 games in the final 30 seconds to good teams. 

So what's the outlook on new coaches? Hopefully we will know more in a weeks time. I think that other than Jon Gruden, the candidate must have a proven head coaching track record in college. Brian Kelly (pictured), Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Gary Patterson, and Paul Johnson all fit that bill. Make no mistake about it - while the ND job will attract tons of very tough attention and pressure, ND is still a place where you can win - and win next season. Here is a very scientific formula for you:  A new defensive minded coach + returning talent + recruiting (85% of commitments said they will keep their pledges unless a crazy hire is made) + the fact that all 6 losses were close games (4pts, 7pts, 2pts, 5pts, 3pts, whatever to Stanford) + another favorable schedule in 2010  =  a great chance to win 8 games next year. Having an average defense would have won the Irish 9 games, maybe more this season. Just think if Charlie could have ever gotten a defense  -  he'd still be our coach next year. 


For Charlie's sake, I hope the Irish come out to play for him against Stanford. The Cardinal run game is going to be tough to stop, so if I were the Irish, I would come out guns blazing and let Jimmy do what he does - throw it around the yard. Certainly it would make sense for us to establish a rushing attack. We will never be able to truly rush the ball with authority while we have such a good QB and WR core. Lets do what we are good at (passing the rock), which happens to be Stanford's biggest weakness (pass defense). However, I don't expect this game to show us anything new about the Irish or Charlie Weis. Another close game and frustrating loss awaits Irish fans (as I predicted in the preseason, a loss to Stanford):


IRISH     27      STANFORD   34


(Vatican Smoke is 7-4 picking the winners, and 7-4 against the spread as well) 


Remember this  -  things are never as bad or as good as they seem. There are some talented young players on our team waiting for a new coach, and some small improvements could have made a 3 to 4 game difference this season. We arent as far away from respectability as the media will have you believe. Brighter days are ahead. 


Have a great thanksgiving!! There will be tons of good stuff to discuss in the coming two weeks, so stay tuned Irish fans. 

UConn Game Preview

Tomorrow the Irish unfortunately play a game that is quite possibly the least anticipated game in recent memory. The game is nothing more than an afterthought at this point, with the current coaching administration seemingly on its way out. The game versus UConn is supposed to be a solid November matchup that is meaningful for bowl aspirations and for seniors (its senior day). Unfortunately the game has lost all luster because most fans don't see anything new or exciting come from the Weis coaching staff in game 61 as we've come to fear in the first 60 iterations. 


Instead of a game preview, here's a different take on the game tomorrow. Being senior day, there have been some good writeups like this one about the current senior class - Weis's first full recruiting class that he signed in February of 2006. This 28 man class was the class that got the recruiting train rolling for Weis, with the class finishing as the #8 ranked class in the nation. This class marked the beginning of what was going to be the journey towards the return to national top 10. Unfortunately, the class did more for our hopes than it did on the field. The 2006 recruiting class embodies the Weis era in a lot of ways. Each started out with success and was instantly a symbol of the continuous improvement that was surely ahead. Being ranked #8 as a recruiting class, the sentiment was that these guys would lay the foundation for the future, and Weis would recruit even better once he built upon this foundation. Just like for Weis, the promise of this class slowly started to erode. An astounding number of players transfered - 10 - including the loss of 5 four star players (interestingly enough, one 4 star player will be suiting up as the starting QB for Connecticut, Zach Frazier, who lost out to Jimmy Clausen in 2007). Great article covering this class in the Chicago Tribune by Brian Hamilton, here. 


Just like the 2006 recruiting class, can't blame everything on Coach Weis. Ultimately he will take the blame - because he is the coach and the "buck stops there". But certainly Weis was handed a top heavy roster that collapsed in 2007 and 2008, based on the lack of recruiting by his predecessor. The 2006 class was mostly good kids that loved Notre Dame - mostly honest and hard working, - just like Coach Weis. The class and coach that were supposed to be the savior are not terrible failures, but I'd prefer to view each as honest efforts that came up short. Sure, thats going soft on them. But the damage has been done - do we really need to keep pointing the finger, dancing over their grave? On senior day, these 2006 class seniors deserve their senior day; Lord knows they have been through a wild 4 years. Just like Weis, they deserve to leave with dignity, not indignation. 


I hope the Irish kick UConn's ass tomorrow - and play their best game of the season. However, as much as I want to see Weis and these seniors leave on a decent high note, I cannot bring myself to expect a breakthrough performance for Weis in game 60, or these seniors in game 48. Prediction:


Notre Dame    27        UConn    24


(Vatican Smoke record straight up picking the Irish games is 7-3 on the season; 6-4 against the spread)

The Beginning of the End

With the loss to Pitt last weekend, most believe that the Charlie Weis era will end after the Stanford game next weekend. We are at the beginning of an annoying amount of media speculation, "updates" and other fodder that will be on every tv show, print newspaper, or magazine that covers sports. Personally, I will hate the two weeks because the games seem relatively meaningless until we know the fate of Coach Weis. Football fans are supposed to be excited about watching the games, but likely most ND fans are considerably less excited than normal for the final 2 games against UConn and Stanford. 


Remember over the next few weeks, that daily ESPN "updates" are typically nothing more than regurgitated quotes and speculation - rarely offering any true insight to the situation. If Athletics Director Jack Swarbrick is half the sensible business man he appears to be, his decision and the coaching search (if needed) will be as tight lipped as humanly possible. Information leaks to the media will only fuel the fire, typically resulting in coaches in speculation getting raises or extensions, or releasing statements saying they "aren't interested in Notre Dame". These measures are often incredibly selfish, using the ND coaching search for personal gain, based on pure rumor or hearsay and not actual interest by Notre Dame. My favorite was back 5 years ago when Mark Mangino (Kansas coach), "pulled his name out of the ND coaching search". Thanks Mark, I doubt we were interested. 


We've established that no one - not ESPN, not "IRISHFAN" handle on your favorite message board, nor your cousin that supposedly is friends with Charlie Weis's family  -  no one knows whether Weis will officially be fired, or who his replacement might be. So now, we can move on not to speculation on whats actually going to happen, but opinions of what should happen. 


Charlie Weis should be fired by Notre Dame on Sunday, November 29th, the day after the Stanford game. 


Weis is a good man and a good, hard working coach. He has kept academics at the highest level possible, while recruiting good young men with football skills. His teams have nary had an off the field issue that was not minor in the grand scheme of a program (Tennessee, I'm looking at you!). He is an alum that gives what little time he has left to his family's charity, and he loves the school immensely. This man needs to be treated with respect and class, but alas, shown the door. 


As I've stated before, Weis will be remembered as the person who answered the key question of doubt about Notre Dame football: Can we recruit with the elite programs? The answer is a resounding yes. Notre Dame football can get enough talent to win a National Championship. Maybe not every year, and certainly there are less recruits available to us than Alabama, Florida, USC, etc. But the talent level will be there if you find the right recruiter. 


Moving on towards who the next coach should be is tough, but since this is a blog, we'll do it. Typically when teams or program fire a coach, they hire the opposite: someone with opposite traits to balance out the problems with the previous coach. We'll start with Weis's main problems that have caused him to be a failure as a head coach at Notre Dame, in my opinion:

• Lack of head coaching experience
• Lack of college head or assistant coaching experience
• Defensive coaching

All this means two candidates rise as the top two guys in addition to the another candidate who always can have the job (Urban Meyer). The two coaches that fulfill the 3 deficiencies of the Weis era are Bob Stoops (Oklahoma) and Brian Kelly (Cincinnati). More next week on these 3 candidates and why I think each would be a good head coach at Notre Dame. Pitt game preview tomorrow.