Faked Out

Another game, another heartbreak. The Irish loss in overtime and in a new fashion to Michigan St on Saturday night, falling 34-31 on a 29 yard fake field goal touchdown in overtime. Even though the playclock read zero as the final play began, no penalty was called - which apparently is the correct call, according to the Big East. I could make endless jokes about the "lag" concept, but am going to leave the whole playclock issue alone. The Irish could have done just 1 thing to have avoided that situation - scored a TD in overtime, defended the fake field goal, or won the game in regulation, so the playclock passing doesn't really bother me. As always, there were mixed emotions following this one.

Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life  -  we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll  -  all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.

The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.

The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.

This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.

Moving Forward

Another tough loss for the Irish against the Wolverines this past weekend, 28-24. Too many tough losses in the past few years unfortunately make this loss blend in with many others. I do think the loss was different, and there are some positives to take away from the game. Whether the Irish can right the ship in the next 4 critical games -  night game at Michigan St, vs Stanford, at Boston College, and vs Pitt - all losable - will determine whether these positive signs were in fact reality.

Dayne Crist provides us with a few positives and one major negative. The bad news was that Dayne did not play on 8 of ND 's 15 possessions, as he had "blurred vision and swelling of the face". I want to say he needs to be tougher than that, but no one knows the details of his injury. One major piece of good news was that the Irish were 1 stop, 1 play, or 1 coaching decision away from having a great shot at winning the game - despite only having Crist for 7/15 drives. The Irish only scored with Dayne in the game, as he directed the Irish to scores on 4 of his 7 drives.  Certainly with Crist in the game a few more drives, the Irish likely beat Michigan - especially considering 14 of Michigan's points came after turnovers by ND's backup QBs. Dayne's play was not perfect by any stretch, but the Irish look to have an eventual 5 star caliber QB on their hands the next 3 seasons.

Another very refreshing aspect of the game was the 2nd half adjustments and overall defensive play. The Irish did not make the key stop in the 4th quarter that they needed - a common trend with prior years unfortunately. But in limiting the Wolverines to only 7 2nd half points (the final touchdown), the Irish defense gave the offense a chance to take the lead and win the game. One major adjustment I saw while at the game was on the defensive line - as the Irish shifted all 3-4 down lineman towards the strong side of the field just before the snap. The shift gave the offensive line for Michigan some trouble, and it particularly helped the additional blitzing Bob Diaco brought in the 2nd half. Even though Michigan missed a few field goals, the Irish stopped the Wolverines on some big 3rd downs in the 2nd half.

Besides the inability to stop the Wolverines at the end of the game, some of the execution and coaching concerned me a bit. Brian Kelly revealed this week that the defensive backs were lined up to the outside, not the inside as called, on the key 3rd down conversion by Michigan in the 4th. In addition, BK mentioned a few other coverages that were perfectly called but just not executed on that final drive. Maybe the defense was tired, but executing a good play call with the game on the line needs to be an area where we dont make mistakes. The coaching decision I had issue with was not kicking the field goal before halftime, with the Irish on the Wolverine 3 yard line with 3 seconds left. Brian Kelly said he "never considered the field goal" - largely due to his not knowing whether Crist could return to the game. I said it before the play and after, that was a huge mistake - mostly for the fact that Nate Montana, the Irish 3rd string QB, had been erratic at best thus far. Reward your team and take the 3 points there. Those 3 points could have given the Irish a 37 yarder at the end of the game to WIN - had the game proceeded the same way. Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 19 years, so I trust his decisions and realize he makes them with more information and experience than I will ever have. This is just my view from the back row of the stadium.

A good comeback spoiled is all too common - but I think there are some good things brewing. Weis rarely corrected issues that surfaced, or made adjustments during the game or season. The next 4 games will provide us a glimpse as to whether Brian Kelly can reverse this trend.

Substance, not Style

The Irish beat the Purdue Boilermakers 23-12 on Saturday to start the Brian Kelly era off 1-0. The offense was balanced (160 yards rushing, 200 passing), and the defense only allowed 10 points to the Purdue offense. For once, the Irish won the special teams battle - returning 2 kickoffs for 50 yards, and 1 punt for 38 yards. Overall the performance was solid in all three phases - but spectacular in none. In fact, the spectacular was that the Irish was not the schizophrenic team we saw under Charlie Weis. Kelly's team closed the game out in the 4th quarter - when previous Irish teams may have lost it. Where style points were lacking, substance prevailed.


The all around solid play is a reflection of coaching more than anything else. Coaches must have the football knowledge to deploy, but they also must have intimate knowledge of both their own troops and the opposition. Weis and Kelly both know football - but it feels as though Kelly is better able to manage his teams weaknesses, as opposed to the Weis approach of that more ingenuity cures all ills. The Irish defense struggled with big plays and stopping the run last year. Kelly knows this, but also knows you cannot stop everything an offense throws at you without giving up something. The Irish defense focused on the run, while employing a cushioned zone with safeties deep much of the game - preventing many of the big plays and consistent running for Purdue. Purdue took the short passes - with Marve completing 31 of 42 pass attempts, but for only 220 yards. Make them complete 10 short passes instead of 1 or 2 - in the hopes that you can get pressure on a play here or there and stop the drive. The long 3rd quarter drive by Purdue that eventually ended in an interception after 15 plays was a perfect example of a defensive gameplan working.


Substance - not style - is what we saw from the Irish. Michigan - this week's opponent if you need reminding - looked spectacular in their besting of UConn this past weekend 30-10. Style yes - but substance? That remains to be seen. Even Michigan fans know that running their QB 29 times is not likely to end well over the course of a Big 10 season. While Denard Robinson passed amazingly well also (19 for 22), no other Michigan RB got more than 3.5yards a carry. Meanwhile, UConn was gaining 5 yards per carry yet fumbling inside the 10 and being unable to convert or defend 3rd downs. Giving up critical 3rd and 15s on broken running plays to Robinson revealed an unprepared UConn defense. Expect Brian Kelly to focus heavily on containing Denard Robinson - and not being stupid enough to think we can stop him. Giving up short precision throws while keeping him in front of our linebackers as much as possible, is likely the approach the Irish use. Expect some long Michigan drives that eventually stall in the red zone - where the Irish have less field to cover and Robinson has to be more accurate with his passes. How Notre Dame on offense converts in the red zone will be the key to what I expect to be a close game. More to come in the game preview later this week.

Living on the Edge

The Irish have been living on the edge all season, and they fell yet again towards mediocrity against a very capable Navy Midshipmen team, 23-21. While Jimmy Clausen (72% completion, 454 yards passing), Golden Tate (9 catches, 132 yards), and Michael Floyd (10 catches, 141 yards) all had great days, two turnovers inside the 3 yard line and 2 missed field goals doomed the Irish. A few other key stats:

• Navy had 402 yards total offense . . . including 350 of those on the ground. 
• Navy's fullback position had 200 yards (!) of the total 350 yard rushing day for the Middies
• Navy's passing game was used 3 times for 2 completions totalling 50 yards and 1 touchdown
• Notre Dame had 512 yards total offense
• Notre Dame was 2/6 scoring in the red zone, with 2 turnovers and 2 missed field goals. Score on one of those and the game is ours

That last bullet point really says it all  -  the Irish left 12 points on the field, at a minimum. And 12 points is assuming just 4 field goals, even though likely we'd have scored a TD or two in those 4 missed red zone chances. 

After the game, I was a part of a painful yet interesting debate between myself and my future father/brother in law, trying to determine who was at fault more, the Irish offense or the Irish defense. Of course the correct answer is both. Early in the season, the Irish defense was more at fault, giving the Irish offense zero margin for error. More recently, the Irish offense has sputtered in the red zone, using up even more of the razor thin margin for error delivered by a still inconsistent defense. Saturday, the sum of the two units' performances just wasn't enough. Each side has major issues (Offense - red zone offense, turnovers; Defense - fullbacks running wild for 200 yards (!!) ) - and it's pointless to debate which is the worst. No Notre Dame team can survive a full season with even 1 of these issues lingering, and quite frankly, we are lucky to be 6-3 right now. Saturday we just came up a play short - just like Washington and Boston College did against the Irish. 

Moving on - to use a page out of Lou Holtz's book  -  W.I.N. - "whats important now". For the Irish, W.I.N. is winning at least 2 of the final 3 games, heading to a New Years Day bowl (likely Gator - check my bowl game scenarios post from last week) and trying to keep the Charlie Weis era going. Win 0 or just 1 game of the final 3, and the Irish are looking for a new coach, seeing a slew of transfers, and losing a slew more of recruits. Also, Golden Tate and Jimmy Clausen would most certainly be gone to the NFL early, doubly feeling the loss of Coach Weis. Win all 3 games, and Weis is back on the "warm to lukewarm" coaching seat, just off the current "hot" seat. Simple directions, hard road, with @Pittsburgh (#8 in the country), vs UConn at home, and @Stanford (thrashed Oregon 51-42) remaining. 

Check back for more VaticanSmoke during the middle of the week - I'll explain why I think an 8-4 or 9-3 season, even now, is very possibly not enough to justify the firing of Charlie Weis. 

Streak Ended; Questions Remain

The Irish stopped the 6 game losing streak to the Boston College Eagles on Saturday, winning 20-16 in a game that once again went down to the wire. A Brian Smith interception in the final minute sealed the game for the Irish  in what was their 5th straight game decided in the final minute. You can find the full game stats here - and of course there were a few interesting items:

• Rushing Defense  -  The Irish outrushed BC 106 to 70 yards. The Irish held Montel Harris to 1.7 yds per carry, which was a very solid effort by the Irish front 7. The Irish improvement against the run could be construed as having been the result of more passing - which isn't entirely true. BC had 29 carries, which is near the season average # of rushing attempts by Irish opponents this season (35). Likely #5 has something to do with the improvement against the run. 
• Rushing Offense  -  Armando Allen had another solid game, with 98 yards and 4.7 ypc. With BC employing a prevent style defense, the Irish are going to have to make teams pay for this approach by pounding them on the ground for more than just 100 yards. Weis remains undefeated when he wins the rushing yards battle. 
• Passing Offense -  Clausen had an efficient day for 246 yards and no interceptions; the only 2 TDs scored by the Irish were connections between Clausen and Tate. BC played a near prevent defense, forcing the Irish to use short outside routes repeatedly. Credit to Clausen for remaining patient and taking what BC was giving him. A few more short passes to Armando or Rudolph in the middle would have been nice. The only strike against he passing offense, besides the 1st qtr safety, is the inability to score in the Red Zone. More on that later . . .
• Passing Defense - BC's quarterback Dave Shinskie had a career day, passing for 280 yards and a touchdown. His 3 interceptions were the difference in the game - but unfortunately not as much of a difference as the Irish should have reaped from the mistakes. The Irish were opportunistic but still gave up too many plays of 20+ yards (10 plays total). Personnel moves hopefully will help slowdown the opposing pass offenses.
• Special Teams  -   The Eagles won the special teams battle, particularly in the punting department. BC punted 5 times at an average of 42 yards per; the Irish punted 6 times for only 32 yards per punt. BC pinned the Irish back inside the 20 numerous times, while the Irish were unable to return the favor to BC but one time. ND's Nick Tausch made both field goals attempted, continuing his streak to 12 straight field goals made - just 1 short of the Notre Dame record of 13. BC did not attempt any field goals, and kickoff coverage was comparable for both teams. 

A few positive observations and opinions after re-watching the game and looking at the stat sheet:

• Weakside linebacker Manti Te'o led the Irish yet again in tackles with 9 on the game. Both Te'o and Brian Smith are improving - and their play has been one of the major factors stabilizing the Irish run defense. Now about that Irish secondary . . .
• Lineup changes in the secondary were the first major changes in the back 4 all season - and should have come sooner. Former free safety Harrison Smith appears to be moving back to linebacker/safety hybrid, while former Nickelback Sergio Brown will have a go at manning the Free Safety spot. Jamoris Slaughter also got a few reps at free safety, a likely candidate to start next season at FS. Harrison Smith is not a dynamic playmaker in space at Safety - he struggles in coverage and just needs to be in less space near the line of scrimmage. Jamoris Slaughter is a true sophomore that is more athletic and much better in coverage (plays cornerback as well). If he can learn the position fast enough, likely he makes more sense at free safety.
• Yes, the turnover battle was won by the Irish 5-0 - but when your margin of victory (4 pts) is less than a significant turnover advantage, clearly we weren't cashing in on these opportunities. If you were to tell me that the Irish would win the turnover battle by 5 and limit BC's ground attack, I would have bet my life savings on the Irish to win big. Amazingly they did not. I suspect the reason is Red Zone offense, discussed below. 

Yet significant questions remain for the Irish. In particular, there are two issues that appear to be the most glaring roadblocks to a 9 or 10 win season: pass defense and red zone offense.

Pass Defense  -  Clearly the pass defense remains the obvious, major issue for the Irish defense. Its never good when the Irish defense continue to be a launching pad for National QB of the Week mentions for our opponents. I do think the run defense will help the pass defense - ideally putting teams in more clear passing situations, helping prepare our secondary for the pass a bit more. Then again  -  we aren't stopping teams on 3rd and long anyway. The personnel on the field in pass coverage are inconsistent, typically making mental coverage errors more often than physical errors (just getting beat).

What's the answer? Maybe I am in denial, but I still refuse to believe we don't have solid talent in the secondary. The general common factor during the pass coverage breakdowns - in general, not every play - appears to be too much cushion. Whereas many might assume the opposition is hitting deep passes over the top of the secondary (like the days of Clifford Jefferson), most plays have been in front of the safeties. Lets try moving our DBs closer to the receivers and let them cover. Bring the safeties down a little bit more, particularly in the middle of the field.

Red Zone Offense  -  The Irish are letting inferior opponents stay in the game longer when the Irish settle for field goals. Washington and BC are prime examples - games where the Irish racked up meaningless yardage on offense - only to get a field goal or a late penalty to thwart the drive. The Irish have scored 25 of their 29 trips to the Red Zone this season - but only 16 TDs in those 29 entries. Against BC, the Irish scored just 1 TD in their 4 red zone appearances, settling for 2 field goals and a turnover at the goal line; against Washington, the Irish had 2 TDs in 6 entries to the RZ, with 4 FGs. Getting TD's on 50% of the red zone chances - which is what the Irish have for the season - needs to be the goal each week. That goal being achieved against Washington and BC would have made the wins much less difficult.

What's the answer? Run the football. Teams around College and the NFL are employing a "Cover 4" scheme where they essentially drop 6 or 7 guys into a zone coverage. Since the space is less, there are fewer holes in the zone. This defense is tough to pass against - so we must strike at the weakness of this scheme: runs up the middle. Anytime linebackers and safeties are on their heels a bit, expecting the pass, the Irish offensive line needs to dominate and Charlie needs to trust them. Teams are not going to give up easy chances for TDs to Jimmy - so we must make them pay on the ground. Armando is running at 4.9ypc, so lets let him do his thing.

Bottom line: The Irish are on pace for a 9 or 10 win season, but have at least 3 more games they can lose easily (@Pittsburgh, vs UConn, @Stanford) if they dont correct their pass defense and red zone offensive issues. The emphasis on the red zone is so important with a pass defense like we have. Certainly the Irish should handily win the next two games against Washington State (in San Antonio) and Navy - which could put the Irish at 7-2 facing a likely 8-1 Pittsburgh team on the road in a few weeks. Hopefully the Irish can use these two weeks to get some comfortable wins and work on fixing these issues.

The Aftermath

For a program that traditionally does not settle for moral victories, Saturday's end result was another almost win for the trophy case. The Irish fell to the Trojans for the 8th time in a row, losing 34-27, despite having 3 chances from the 4 yard line as time expired. Close but no cigar - the story of ND football, post Lou Holtz. 


Before one can sort through the positives and negatives of the game, know this: Saturday was a major setback for Notre Dame. There are no moral victories or "we're improving" comments that should make any Irish fan feel better. Losing a winnable game against a top ranked arch rival - albeit a game that the Irish did not deserve to win - is never acceptable and is major strike against Charlie Weis. After Saturday, I believe its going to be very difficult for Charlie to ever get us where we need to be. There is a chance he could - with more time than likely the Dome will offer. I hope Charlie succeeds - but I fear his chances of creating a consistent top 10 program are slim considering the hot seat that is coaching at Notre Dame. 


Lets take a quick look at the preseason prediction of Vatican Smoke thru 6 games (full season prediction here):


Prediction:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - W
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - L
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L

Actual:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - L
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - W
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L

While Weis may not be the guy long term for this program, after 6 games, "We are who [Vatican Smoke] thought [we] were". The Irish are a solid, likely top 20 football team that doesn't have the defense to compete with the elite teams yet. 4-2 is the record many Irish fans expected - and the Irish goal of a BCS game is still in play, with a 6-0 finish and some good luck. The margin for error in reaching the BCS is razor thin now, if even possible. Tough losses to Michigan and USC - the most hated rivals on the schedule - certainly sting. But try to look at the big picture of where you expected us to be in the preseason. The Irish are a team that can lose to just about anyone in the country - but likely would have a chance to win against anyone in the country also, except for Alabama (yes I think we could possibly play with Florida or Texas, particularly after this weekend.) 

While I think Saturday laid a potentially heavy judgement on Charlie Weis, I don't think the story of the USC loss is finished yet. Was Saturday a good team losing a close one? Or will it be remembered as the day Charlie Weis's career at Notre Dame was finished? After the loss, his job security depends even more on the final 6 games. In the final 6 games, starting this Saturday at home against Boston College, the Irish should go 5-1 - and better make a serious run at 6-0. 4-2 or worse likely leaves Weis without a job. How the Irish respond in these final 6 games will determine how this loss to USC was remembered. 

2-1

The Irish finally defeated Sparty on Saturday, winning 33-30 in a down to the wire finish. Charlie Weis has now broken two streaks that the previous two ND coaches Davie & Willingham could not - beating Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium, and winning a bowl game.

Saturday was at the same time a huge relief and a huge concern. The defense clearly is struggling to stop the pass and the run, giving up 459 yards of total offense and 30 points to an average offensive team in Michigan State. And certainly the Spartans failed to capitalize on some defensive miscues (one at the end of the game in particular). That said, the Irish deserve to be 2-1 and are still technically in play for a solid season. Certainly it's a positive to see the Irish take advantage of the late Spartan miscue, which incidentally came on the first real QB pressure of the day.

Lots of things have to happen for the Irish to finish with that 10-2 record and a BCS berth. Two key questions that must be answered in order to reach that goal, at this stage of the season:

• Without Floyd, can the offense keep scoring 34 points per game? With Floyd out, defenses are going to double team Golden Tate. Kyle Rudolph and the other wide receivers - time to step up. Expect Weis to counter with a very heavy dose of Rudolph, who's size and hands create a mismatch with nearly every linebacker and safety in the country. Whether its Rudolph or Shaq Evans or other wideouts - Charlie is going to have to change the playbook and replace Floyd's production.
• Can the Irish win on the road? During 2007 and 2008, the Irish have gone 4-7 on the road, with 2 road wins in each season. 2007 featured road wins against UCLA and Stanford, while 2008 road wins were Navy (in Baltimore) and Washington. A pattern has developed of playing poorly on the road against decent teams. A convincing road victory in front of a national primetime audience this Saturday night would be good preparation for the more difficult road games coming up in November against Pittsburgh and Stanford.

I know what you're thinking: why no key question about our defense? The Irish defense has been terrible, no doubt. But the unit should improve after getting exposed early in the season. Expect a bend but not break defense than will start to limit most opponents to scores in the 20s while the offense keeps scoring near the 30s.

We'll learn a little bit about the Irish on Saturday night when we face an overmatched Purdue team on the road. Winning a night game on the road in the first game without our best WR won't be easy (that's why Vegas has the line currently as Irish favored by only 8.5 points). Purdue's not to be mistaken for a good team, however - but a decisive victory with a solid offensive performance would be a great start to answering both of these questions.

Nevada Post Game

A very good start for the Irish felt more like a relief than anything else. The talent is there but getting off to a good start often releases a lot of built up pressure on the program - letting things flow a bit easier. A few fast facts about the game:

• The Irish dismantled the Nevada Wolfpack 35-0, marking the first shutout of the Charlie Weis era. Last shutout was 7 years ago in 2002 against Rutgers, my last home game as a senior.
• Jimmy Clausen finished 15 for 18 with 2 of the 3 incompletions being "drops". Combined with 4 TDs, Jimmy had a near perfect day.
• The Irish rushed for 178 yards, but more importantly, 4.3 YPC on 41 attempts
• The Irish allowed ZERO sacks in the game (kudos to the offensive line)
• Nevada rushed for 153 yards on 29 carries, good for a not so hot for the Irish 5.3 YPC
• Nevada was 2 for 11 converting 3rd downs. The Irish finished 6 for 12 on 3rd down conversions
• Notre Dame finished with 2 sacks of Nevada and 4 tackles for a loss.
• 20 (!) new Irish players saw gametime for the first time in their freshman or redshirt freshman seasons

As for my predicted score of 38-27, close for the Irish but not for the Wolfpack. Kyle Rudolph's opening TD was correctly predicted, and was in the ballpark predicting Jimmy's day. You can check out my game prediction here if you like.

A few post game tidbits for you:

• The "Real" Score - The Irish deserved to win by at least 3 to 4 touchdowns, but not 35-0. That said, Nevada could move the ball between the 20s but not inside. There is something about this defense that turns on when a team is closing in on the end zone - even last year it was apparent. Whether is a big 2nd down sack forcing a 3rd and long, or a big tackle on 3rd down, the Irish defense makes the most of every opportunity they achive (or is given to them).
• Depth Building - To play as many youngsters as we did was also a huge plus. Good programs develop depth by playing their backups early and often - which the Irish were able to do on Saturday. Even backup QB Dayne Crist got in the game for a good period of time. After Sam Bradford went down, every team knows that a backup QB is just one play away from being thrust into the spotlight. 3 Offensive lineman on the 2nd team got reps with the first team during the 1st half, another huge bonus.
• Offensive Formations Galore - Charlie's mantra is that he uses multiple formations to run common plays - confusing the defense and gaining synergies on offense. Multiple tight ends is probably Weis's best formation - and one that is seen less in college than in the pros. The Irish were able to run about 40% of the plays with 2 tight ends, as opposed to the prior 2 years where we lacked the depth to run multiple tight end formations. Look for the offense to excel simply because of the formations now available to Weis due to our TE depth.
• Freshman Impact - Manti Te'o (pictured above) is going to be a beast at linebacker. On his first play he blitzed, was out of the play, but then chased the play down from the backside to hit Kaepernick for a huge tackle. He had two other tackles/hits in the second half that were 2 of the more powerful tackles I have seen by an Irish defender in years (see above). His playing time will gradually increase as he gains a better grasp of the defense, in line with our game plan. Backup RB and kick returner Theo Reddick did a nice job last week as well. The scatback has some explosiveness and should be fun to watch.

NBC broadcast is still a bit cheesy, but much less so than year's past. Pat Hayden is fine, and Tom Hammond is pretty bland and painful to listen to. The computer graphics and animations, along with the music, are much better this year.

Below is a good summary of all the key plays in the game - a good, efficient watch. Watch it, then forget about it. One of our most hated rivals awaits us at week's end. Check back later this week for some good Michigan vs Notre Dame info. Early line in Vegas - Irish favored by 3.5.

Tough Loss

The Irish lost a tough, close game at #22 North Carolina, falling 28-24 on Saturday afternoon. Despite nearly 500 yards total offense, and out gaining the Tar Heels by nearly 160 yards, the rapidly improving Irish could not outscore 5 turnovers. North Carolina capitalized on 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles to score 14 of their 28 points, enough for the 4 point victory. Before I get to my predictions, here are the Vatican's points from this game:

• The Irish were the more talented team on Saturday  -  I'm not writing out of sour grapes, but out of simple observation. I don't think there was a big talent edge, but just a slight lean to the Irish. North Carolina had relative difficulty with nearly everything the Irish did on offense and defense, except with our turnovers. Talent does not always equal production, and that's where maturity and coaching will have to bridge the gap to winning.
• The Irish lack of muturity was the factor in the game   -  Obviously the turnover ratio  -  5 to 0  -  was the key. The Irish youth contributed heavily if not fully to the turnovers. Miscommunication on a pass, staring down a receiver, not feeling the pocket collapsing, and holding on the ball too long are all mistakes by Jimmy Clausen that reflect his age (20). This team is good enough to win at home, but needs to learn and experience how to win on the road, a very different and more difficult task.
• The Irish defense continues to play surprisingly well  -  Bend but not break. The Irish defense only gave up 21 points, and only 14 on non-turnover drives (7 pts scored by UNC's defense, 7 pts scored on a very short field after a fumble). The pass defense has been superior  -  top 20 in the country is about where I guess they will be once all the stats are tabulated from this weekend. Rush defense is a weakness, but the Irish are still giving the offense and very reasonable chance to win, as they have not given up more than 23 points all season long to an offense.
• Our passing game is darn good  -  really good. Jimmy is a young sophomore, throwing the ball to freshman and sophomores, and throwing it all over the yard. 380yards passing, on the road, is impressive. Yes, the turnovers were a big negative, but don't discount how well Jimmy handled the offense and how well we passed the ball on a solid pass defense. The turnovers will decrease with time, and the offense will only get better. Gonna be a fun few more years watching these guys.
• The 1st Quarter was an offensive passing clinic by the Irish  -  didn't use a running back on any offensive play (I believe). 150 yards passing, Jimmy throwing with precision and accuracy all over the field. 5 WR formations really through the Tar Heels for a loop, and they eventually had to adjust. Then the Irish ran the ball once the extra defensive backs came onto the field. A great first half really, and definitely brought back memories of 2005 and 2006 offenses. The offense of the 1st qtr could compete against any defense, anywhere. A major fault was not scoring more points in the first half than the 17 we did. Lotsa production but only 17 points was not enough.

Now for my predictions grading:

 

Prediction #1  -  Jimmy passes for 250 with 2 tds and 1 int  -  I was way off on the passing yards, as Jimmy threw for 380 yards. I was right on the 2tds, but one short on the interceptions he threw (2). He also had a very critical fumble lost that hurt the Irish. Overall, a solid day for Jimmy save a few plays. You must see the positive in his play, not just the turnovers. He is young and will get better.

 

Prediction #2  -  Armando Allen would rush for 125 yards and catch 5 passes   -  Armando only rushed for 60 yards, although 5yards per carry. He did catch 5 passes, fastly becoming a great outlet for Jimmy. Those outlet passes are an extension of the running game, and working very well.

 

Prediction #3  -  The Irish defense would force 3 turnovers from UNC QB Cam Sexton. I was wrong here. Sexton managed the game very well, as the Irish were not able to capitalize on his few errant passes. He passed for 200 yards, with no TDs, but more importantly no INTs. If Sexton threw an INT or two, the Irish win this football game. Kudos to him for not penalizing his team with his mediocrity.

 

Score Prediction  -  I predicted the Irish would win 28-20, and was obviously wrong. This was the first game all season that I was wrong in picking the winner, finishing the first half 5-1 on my pick the winners and 4-2 against the spread (the Irish covered against the Tar Heels).

 

All in all, we are still progressing as a team. Many will point to the turnovers and other negatives, but I now see a team that is light years better than 2007, and even significantly better than when we played Michigan St. a month ago. Our offense is moving the ball, playmakers are growing, and the defense is holding. Special teams (save the kicking game) has been fantastic all year. The turnovers and "closing ability" of our team in road games will both improve, and we will learn a lot from this close loss. Clearly we had a chance and should have won that game, and for this team and this season (in light of last year), that means something. Now I won't accept this type of loss as easily next year, but we have to keep everything in perspective.

 

There is much to be excited about in the Notre Dame program. I honestly believe, particularly after this game, that this program will win 8 games or more as long as Weis is there. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, mark it down, all that. As for this season, earlier this year I expected us to go 7-5. Now, after Saturday in particular, I think 8-4 is as reasonable as my initial prediction, with 9-3 not out of the realm of possibility. The Irish are 4-2 at the midway point  -  certainly we should win 3 more games (Washington, Syracuse, and Navy - yes Navy beat us last year, but barely and in triple OT). So thats 7 wins. We lose to USC. So that's 7-3, with two swing games left on the board  -  Pittsburgh at home, and @ Boston College. Split those games, you go 8-4. Win both, you finish 9-3. 7 wins puts us in the Brut Sun Bowl or possibly the Meineke Car Care Bowl (my initial preseason prediction). 8 or 9 wins and we are in the Gator or Cotton bowl, both on New Years day. Pretty simple scenarios.

 

Bye week at the midway point is nice. Especially after this tough, emotional loss. Hopefully we can regroup and go out to Washington and beat up on them, although being on the road you never know what can happen.