Saturday the Irish play the team that I believe is the best team on their 12 game schedule - the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal is #18 in the country, and has killed mediocre competition in 3 games thus far. 35-0 against UCLA, 68-24 over Wake Forest, and a thumping of Sacramento State. At the helm of the Stanford Cardinal is the player Mel Kiper Jr ranks as the #2 ranked player for the NFL Draft (as a sophomore), quarterback Andrew Luck. Understandably the Irish are 6pt underdogs at home.
Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority, with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs). But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played.
So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average. Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense. I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course.
With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.
Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford.
Vatican Smoke Prediction:
IRISH 38 STANFORD 35
(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)
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