The Irish head to Chapel Hill, NC to take on the improving North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 2:30pm. The Tar Heels are ranked #23 in one poll, unranked in the other, and both teams are 4-1 and improving quickly from last season's subpar efforts.
When the Irish have the ball . . . watch the North Carolina defensive line. While the UNC secondary leads all of college football with 12 interceptions in 5 games (!), its because they rarely ever blitz, dropping 7 men into coverage on most all pass plays. If UNC can get pressure with their front 4, then the Irish will be in trouble, as Jimmy will be trying to pass into a lot of coverage. Another key is the Irish running game, which is the obvious way to make a pass defense minded team pay. Play action will help, as well Jimmy hitting his check down TE and RB pass routes, which worked well last week. Specifically watch former 5 star DT Marvin Austin, an Irish target nabbed by Butch Davis. He is playing really well, so hopefully our OLine can keep Jimmy standing, which they have done superbly all year.
When North Carolina has the ball . . . watch the Irish run defense. The Irish run defense stiffened up tremendously in the second half against Stanford, and this must continue. I am not a believer in UNC's QB Cam Sexton's ability to consistently throw an accurate ball. With our strength being in our secondary, we need to make them pass and force a few turnovers. Stopping the run, then forcing quick and shorter passes (via the Blitz) has got to be the game plan for the Irish defense. This is not rocket science, but stopping the run can also mean scoring enough points on offense to where UNC has to pass to catch up. That's where we must make them pay. Unlike Michigan St., UNC does not have an overpowering running game, but is actually balanced on offense. Unfortunately, they have 2 major playmakers at WR that burned the Irish in 2006 (Brandon Tate and Hakeem Nicks). Both are fast and average about 20 yards per catch. That's about like Golden Tate's numbers, so defending these guys while keeping the damage minimal will be huge.
Prediction time . . .
Prediction 1 - Jimmy Clausen will pass for a tough 250 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Prediction 2 - Armando Allen burst onto the scene with 5 catches out of the backfield; more importantly, his 125 yards on the ground propel the Irish offense
Prediction 3 - Notre Dame defense forces 3 turnovers, including 2 INTs and 1 fumble, all by QB Cam Sextion.
I hate to bust on Cam Sexton, who is a good QB. Its more about the blitzing Jon Tenuta defense finally figuring out how to get to the Quarterback, which they did for 5 sacks last weekend against Stanford. I think the pressure gets to Sexton, who is geeked up with all the rest of North Carolina for their biggest home game in quite some time.
A close, good football game, which the Irish win largely due to turnovers. The pundits continue to doubt Notre Dame, saying the defense is benefiting from a large amount of turnovers. The Irish don't care, as they celebrate their most respectable win in two years . . .
IRISH 28 UNC 20
(Vatican Smoke's record on picking Notre Dame's games this season = 5-0 vs the point spread 2-3)
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