Tough Loss

The Irish lost a tough, close game at #22 North Carolina, falling 28-24 on Saturday afternoon. Despite nearly 500 yards total offense, and out gaining the Tar Heels by nearly 160 yards, the rapidly improving Irish could not outscore 5 turnovers. North Carolina capitalized on 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles to score 14 of their 28 points, enough for the 4 point victory. Before I get to my predictions, here are the Vatican's points from this game:

• The Irish were the more talented team on Saturday  -  I'm not writing out of sour grapes, but out of simple observation. I don't think there was a big talent edge, but just a slight lean to the Irish. North Carolina had relative difficulty with nearly everything the Irish did on offense and defense, except with our turnovers. Talent does not always equal production, and that's where maturity and coaching will have to bridge the gap to winning.
• The Irish lack of muturity was the factor in the game   -  Obviously the turnover ratio  -  5 to 0  -  was the key. The Irish youth contributed heavily if not fully to the turnovers. Miscommunication on a pass, staring down a receiver, not feeling the pocket collapsing, and holding on the ball too long are all mistakes by Jimmy Clausen that reflect his age (20). This team is good enough to win at home, but needs to learn and experience how to win on the road, a very different and more difficult task.
• The Irish defense continues to play surprisingly well  -  Bend but not break. The Irish defense only gave up 21 points, and only 14 on non-turnover drives (7 pts scored by UNC's defense, 7 pts scored on a very short field after a fumble). The pass defense has been superior  -  top 20 in the country is about where I guess they will be once all the stats are tabulated from this weekend. Rush defense is a weakness, but the Irish are still giving the offense and very reasonable chance to win, as they have not given up more than 23 points all season long to an offense.
• Our passing game is darn good  -  really good. Jimmy is a young sophomore, throwing the ball to freshman and sophomores, and throwing it all over the yard. 380yards passing, on the road, is impressive. Yes, the turnovers were a big negative, but don't discount how well Jimmy handled the offense and how well we passed the ball on a solid pass defense. The turnovers will decrease with time, and the offense will only get better. Gonna be a fun few more years watching these guys.
• The 1st Quarter was an offensive passing clinic by the Irish  -  didn't use a running back on any offensive play (I believe). 150 yards passing, Jimmy throwing with precision and accuracy all over the field. 5 WR formations really through the Tar Heels for a loop, and they eventually had to adjust. Then the Irish ran the ball once the extra defensive backs came onto the field. A great first half really, and definitely brought back memories of 2005 and 2006 offenses. The offense of the 1st qtr could compete against any defense, anywhere. A major fault was not scoring more points in the first half than the 17 we did. Lotsa production but only 17 points was not enough.

Now for my predictions grading:

 

Prediction #1  -  Jimmy passes for 250 with 2 tds and 1 int  -  I was way off on the passing yards, as Jimmy threw for 380 yards. I was right on the 2tds, but one short on the interceptions he threw (2). He also had a very critical fumble lost that hurt the Irish. Overall, a solid day for Jimmy save a few plays. You must see the positive in his play, not just the turnovers. He is young and will get better.

 

Prediction #2  -  Armando Allen would rush for 125 yards and catch 5 passes   -  Armando only rushed for 60 yards, although 5yards per carry. He did catch 5 passes, fastly becoming a great outlet for Jimmy. Those outlet passes are an extension of the running game, and working very well.

 

Prediction #3  -  The Irish defense would force 3 turnovers from UNC QB Cam Sexton. I was wrong here. Sexton managed the game very well, as the Irish were not able to capitalize on his few errant passes. He passed for 200 yards, with no TDs, but more importantly no INTs. If Sexton threw an INT or two, the Irish win this football game. Kudos to him for not penalizing his team with his mediocrity.

 

Score Prediction  -  I predicted the Irish would win 28-20, and was obviously wrong. This was the first game all season that I was wrong in picking the winner, finishing the first half 5-1 on my pick the winners and 4-2 against the spread (the Irish covered against the Tar Heels).

 

All in all, we are still progressing as a team. Many will point to the turnovers and other negatives, but I now see a team that is light years better than 2007, and even significantly better than when we played Michigan St. a month ago. Our offense is moving the ball, playmakers are growing, and the defense is holding. Special teams (save the kicking game) has been fantastic all year. The turnovers and "closing ability" of our team in road games will both improve, and we will learn a lot from this close loss. Clearly we had a chance and should have won that game, and for this team and this season (in light of last year), that means something. Now I won't accept this type of loss as easily next year, but we have to keep everything in perspective.

 

There is much to be excited about in the Notre Dame program. I honestly believe, particularly after this game, that this program will win 8 games or more as long as Weis is there. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, mark it down, all that. As for this season, earlier this year I expected us to go 7-5. Now, after Saturday in particular, I think 8-4 is as reasonable as my initial prediction, with 9-3 not out of the realm of possibility. The Irish are 4-2 at the midway point  -  certainly we should win 3 more games (Washington, Syracuse, and Navy - yes Navy beat us last year, but barely and in triple OT). So thats 7 wins. We lose to USC. So that's 7-3, with two swing games left on the board  -  Pittsburgh at home, and @ Boston College. Split those games, you go 8-4. Win both, you finish 9-3. 7 wins puts us in the Brut Sun Bowl or possibly the Meineke Car Care Bowl (my initial preseason prediction). 8 or 9 wins and we are in the Gator or Cotton bowl, both on New Years day. Pretty simple scenarios.

 

Bye week at the midway point is nice. Especially after this tough, emotional loss. Hopefully we can regroup and go out to Washington and beat up on them, although being on the road you never know what can happen.