Washington Huskies Preview

Notre Dame (3-1) tees it off at 2:30pm central time on Saturday vs. the Washington Huskies (2-2). The Irish are a 13 point favorite over the vastly improved Huskies, who are 0-7 all time versus Notre Dame. Weather in South Bend looks to be cool at about 50 degrees, with the chance of rain at 60%. The Irish have a bye next week before playing the USC Trojans on October 17th. With the bye week, hopefully the Irish are fully focused on the Huskies and entering the SC game at 4-1. 

What to expect . . . when Washington has the ball:

Jake Locker is good  -  Scouts are starting to notice, and some, like Wes Bunting, have proclaimed Locker to be the #1 overall NFL prospect for THIS YEAR. Wow. On the same board, Clausen is #14. And I'm not talking quarterbacks, I am talking overall. Locker has a lot of the qualities you can't teach - size (6'3", 230 pounds), speed (4.5 40 yrd dash - maybe faster), and arm strength. His accuracy has improved as he finally has been asked to be a pocket passer by new coach Steve Sarkisian - unlike the patchwork of an offense run by his former coach, Ty Willingham. The main thing Locker lacks is experience in a pro style offense, since he has only been a pocket passer for 4 games this season. The Irish are going to have to force Locker into some mistakes and keep him at or below his current 59% completion rate. 

By air or by ground?  -  Washington certainly will look for offensive balance, a staple of any pro style offense. The Huskies use similar schemes as USC, with the head coach (Steve Sarkisian) and defensive coordinator (Nick Holt) both hailing from the 2008 USC staff. However, the Huskies are ranked #94 in the country in rushing yards, yet #38 in passing. Certainly having played USC and LSU, those rushing stats are likely skewed and should improve. Expect Washington to attack the Irish on the ground and in the short passing game. While the Irish performed admirably against the run last week, the short passing game on our blitzes is still the way to nail the Irish. I expect the Irish to do another solid job in the area of run defense, but hopefully not at the expense of the short passing game. 

Te'o?   Word has it that the Irish are veeeerry close to unleashing the ubertalented Hawaiian linebacker Manti Te'o. Clearly the Irish defense is doing below expectations, and clearly Te'o has the speed, size, and instincts that no one on the defense has. Need a good zone / QB spy for Locker, that occasionally blitzes? Here is your guy. Look for a few flashes of brilliance from Te'o. 

Be careful when blitzing  -  In the first 3 games, the Irish blitzed an estimated 75% of plays - vs Purdue, an estimated 55%. Clearly the lowered blitz % helped at least keep the opposition guessing. The real problem with blitzing against Locker is containment. If Locker gets out of the pocket on a blitz, there is a decent chance he will have green pastures and could run for some major yards. Locker's scrambling will be the best offensive weapon Washington will have on Saturday - mark it down. Look for some type of safety or linebacker "spy" coverage - where one defender has eyes on Locker at all times from the middle of the field. This defender will be able to support the run, play some zone defense against the pass, and (attempt) to keep Locker contained. Let's make Locker pass the ball to the average wideouts or hand the ball off to the mediocre running backs - or at the minimum, have to make at least one tackler miss when he runs. Hopefully Tenuta-blitz has a good plan up his sleeves. 

What to expect . . . when the Irish have the ball:

Stats and rainy weather say attack the ground first . . . But the Irish won't. The strength of Washington's defense is the linebackers, ranked by some as one of the top linebacker corps in the Pac 10. This group of linebackers is similar to Michigan St - good tacklers, tough against blocks, and very experienced. Weis loves to force teams with good linebackers into putting more defensive backs on the field - thus taking a few of the linebackers off the field. Just like North Carolina last year, and Michigan St this year, Weis does this by spreading the defense out with 4 and 5 wide offensive sets. The weather (rainy) and Washington's weak run defense (94th in the country) seem counter to this strategy, as does Jimmy Clausen's turf toe, which will give him pain in his right plant foot all season. I don't expect the Irish to throw it all day - in fact, I expect the Irish to run from some of these spread sets. Weis should be able to get the defense on their heels defending the pass, then run the ball. As soon as the Huskies adjust, Weis will pass some more. Establishing the pass - not the run - has always been Weis's way of forcing a defense's hand. 

Plenty of Wildcat . . . err, I mean the "Lepre-cat"  -  The Irish have apparently renamed the Wildcat to the "Leprecat", which sounds a bit weird but whatever. Most realize that the Leprecat is a run first formation. Many do not realize the Wildcat is a version of one of the oldest offenses in all of football - the Single Wing. The key to this formation is numbers - since the QB is a running threat, that leaves one extra blocker for run plays. The offense is never outnumbered by blitzers - giving the offense a clear advantage. I expect the Irish to use the Leprecat against Washington not only to help minimize their linebackers, but also because I dont believe Washington has seen any Wildcat this season. I could be wrong, but USC, LSU, and Stanford likely don't feature the formation. 

More 4/5 Wide and Leprecat  -  Both of these offensive extremes will be used brilliantly by Weis on Saturday. Each formation will be used to minimize the biggest strength of the Huskies - Linebackers. Weis undeniably is a fantastic playcaller - and he is finally hitting his stride in the college game. Best example of that? The Leprecat. Weis was not familiar with the formation - but that didn't stop him from studying the scheme and installing it in the offseason. As the Leprecat continues to evolve, look for the formation to gain more and more attention nationally each week. Expect some new wrinkles as the season progresses, but also expect the Irish to improve execution of the basics.  Weis is going to call a brilliant game offensively this Saturday against the Huskies. 

Three things bother me about this game: the rain, Clausen's toe, and Jake Locker. We are a better offensive team than Washington, so the rain could actually favor the Irish. Contrary to popular opinion, rain often helps offenses more than defenses, since the surface is harder for defenders to navigate while reacting to the offense. Clausen's toe is a certainly a concern - but clearly his throws were as good as needed at the end of the Purdue game. Mentally he made one mistake on his only interception of the season - but the mistake was not physical or related to the toe. That leaves Locker  -  how do we contain him? Keeping Locker in the pocket will be important, as will forcing him to pass to beat us. For all the NFL scouting and gushing over Locker's talents, he is still only completing 59% of his passes, with 6 TDs to 3 INTs. If we make Locker pass and don't give the Huskies easy field position or turnovers, I think its going to be very difficult for Locker to outpass Clausen. 

The Irish should win this game by two touchdowns, but I don't think they will. While Weis calls a great game, sometimes he has a tendancy to switch up the offense just for the sake of doing so, leading to stalled drives in key situations. The Irish defense is not quite ready to dominate a game yet, if ever. Expect the Irish to control the game with a balanced offensive performance - with the game never in doubt - but not to cover Vegas' "Notre Dame Adjusted" betting spread. 

Prediction:

Clausen throws for 2 TDs, while Golden Tate runs for 1 in the Leprecat and Robert Hughes adds another. Manti Te'o causes a fumble and finishes with 4 tackles, including 1 sack and 1 tackle for loss. 

IRISH    31       HUSKIES   21

(Vatican Smoke's record is 3-1 straight up picking the winner, 1-3 against the spread)