Streak Ended; Questions Remain

The Irish stopped the 6 game losing streak to the Boston College Eagles on Saturday, winning 20-16 in a game that once again went down to the wire. A Brian Smith interception in the final minute sealed the game for the Irish  in what was their 5th straight game decided in the final minute. You can find the full game stats here - and of course there were a few interesting items:

• Rushing Defense  -  The Irish outrushed BC 106 to 70 yards. The Irish held Montel Harris to 1.7 yds per carry, which was a very solid effort by the Irish front 7. The Irish improvement against the run could be construed as having been the result of more passing - which isn't entirely true. BC had 29 carries, which is near the season average # of rushing attempts by Irish opponents this season (35). Likely #5 has something to do with the improvement against the run. 
• Rushing Offense  -  Armando Allen had another solid game, with 98 yards and 4.7 ypc. With BC employing a prevent style defense, the Irish are going to have to make teams pay for this approach by pounding them on the ground for more than just 100 yards. Weis remains undefeated when he wins the rushing yards battle. 
• Passing Offense -  Clausen had an efficient day for 246 yards and no interceptions; the only 2 TDs scored by the Irish were connections between Clausen and Tate. BC played a near prevent defense, forcing the Irish to use short outside routes repeatedly. Credit to Clausen for remaining patient and taking what BC was giving him. A few more short passes to Armando or Rudolph in the middle would have been nice. The only strike against he passing offense, besides the 1st qtr safety, is the inability to score in the Red Zone. More on that later . . .
• Passing Defense - BC's quarterback Dave Shinskie had a career day, passing for 280 yards and a touchdown. His 3 interceptions were the difference in the game - but unfortunately not as much of a difference as the Irish should have reaped from the mistakes. The Irish were opportunistic but still gave up too many plays of 20+ yards (10 plays total). Personnel moves hopefully will help slowdown the opposing pass offenses.
• Special Teams  -   The Eagles won the special teams battle, particularly in the punting department. BC punted 5 times at an average of 42 yards per; the Irish punted 6 times for only 32 yards per punt. BC pinned the Irish back inside the 20 numerous times, while the Irish were unable to return the favor to BC but one time. ND's Nick Tausch made both field goals attempted, continuing his streak to 12 straight field goals made - just 1 short of the Notre Dame record of 13. BC did not attempt any field goals, and kickoff coverage was comparable for both teams. 

A few positive observations and opinions after re-watching the game and looking at the stat sheet:

• Weakside linebacker Manti Te'o led the Irish yet again in tackles with 9 on the game. Both Te'o and Brian Smith are improving - and their play has been one of the major factors stabilizing the Irish run defense. Now about that Irish secondary . . .
• Lineup changes in the secondary were the first major changes in the back 4 all season - and should have come sooner. Former free safety Harrison Smith appears to be moving back to linebacker/safety hybrid, while former Nickelback Sergio Brown will have a go at manning the Free Safety spot. Jamoris Slaughter also got a few reps at free safety, a likely candidate to start next season at FS. Harrison Smith is not a dynamic playmaker in space at Safety - he struggles in coverage and just needs to be in less space near the line of scrimmage. Jamoris Slaughter is a true sophomore that is more athletic and much better in coverage (plays cornerback as well). If he can learn the position fast enough, likely he makes more sense at free safety.
• Yes, the turnover battle was won by the Irish 5-0 - but when your margin of victory (4 pts) is less than a significant turnover advantage, clearly we weren't cashing in on these opportunities. If you were to tell me that the Irish would win the turnover battle by 5 and limit BC's ground attack, I would have bet my life savings on the Irish to win big. Amazingly they did not. I suspect the reason is Red Zone offense, discussed below. 

Yet significant questions remain for the Irish. In particular, there are two issues that appear to be the most glaring roadblocks to a 9 or 10 win season: pass defense and red zone offense.

Pass Defense  -  Clearly the pass defense remains the obvious, major issue for the Irish defense. Its never good when the Irish defense continue to be a launching pad for National QB of the Week mentions for our opponents. I do think the run defense will help the pass defense - ideally putting teams in more clear passing situations, helping prepare our secondary for the pass a bit more. Then again  -  we aren't stopping teams on 3rd and long anyway. The personnel on the field in pass coverage are inconsistent, typically making mental coverage errors more often than physical errors (just getting beat).

What's the answer? Maybe I am in denial, but I still refuse to believe we don't have solid talent in the secondary. The general common factor during the pass coverage breakdowns - in general, not every play - appears to be too much cushion. Whereas many might assume the opposition is hitting deep passes over the top of the secondary (like the days of Clifford Jefferson), most plays have been in front of the safeties. Lets try moving our DBs closer to the receivers and let them cover. Bring the safeties down a little bit more, particularly in the middle of the field.

Red Zone Offense  -  The Irish are letting inferior opponents stay in the game longer when the Irish settle for field goals. Washington and BC are prime examples - games where the Irish racked up meaningless yardage on offense - only to get a field goal or a late penalty to thwart the drive. The Irish have scored 25 of their 29 trips to the Red Zone this season - but only 16 TDs in those 29 entries. Against BC, the Irish scored just 1 TD in their 4 red zone appearances, settling for 2 field goals and a turnover at the goal line; against Washington, the Irish had 2 TDs in 6 entries to the RZ, with 4 FGs. Getting TD's on 50% of the red zone chances - which is what the Irish have for the season - needs to be the goal each week. That goal being achieved against Washington and BC would have made the wins much less difficult.

What's the answer? Run the football. Teams around College and the NFL are employing a "Cover 4" scheme where they essentially drop 6 or 7 guys into a zone coverage. Since the space is less, there are fewer holes in the zone. This defense is tough to pass against - so we must strike at the weakness of this scheme: runs up the middle. Anytime linebackers and safeties are on their heels a bit, expecting the pass, the Irish offensive line needs to dominate and Charlie needs to trust them. Teams are not going to give up easy chances for TDs to Jimmy - so we must make them pay on the ground. Armando is running at 4.9ypc, so lets let him do his thing.

Bottom line: The Irish are on pace for a 9 or 10 win season, but have at least 3 more games they can lose easily (@Pittsburgh, vs UConn, @Stanford) if they dont correct their pass defense and red zone offensive issues. The emphasis on the red zone is so important with a pass defense like we have. Certainly the Irish should handily win the next two games against Washington State (in San Antonio) and Navy - which could put the Irish at 7-2 facing a likely 8-1 Pittsburgh team on the road in a few weeks. Hopefully the Irish can use these two weeks to get some comfortable wins and work on fixing these issues.