TROY

The Irish host the University of Southern California Trojans tomorrow at 2:30pm central time, nationally televised on NBC. Some great game preview and history information on UND.com, definitely worth the read. Interesting facts about the series and this season's game:

• ND leads the all time series over the Trojans, 42-33-5. Its been a streaky series - with USC winning the past 7 years
• Pete Carroll is 7-1 against Notre Dame, losing in 2001 to Bob Davie by a score of 27-16
• USC's loss in 2001 at Notre Dame Stadium, 27-16, is still the worst loss of the Pete Carroll era (!)
• USC has beaten the last 9 AP top 25 ranked teams they have played. ND is ranked #25 this week in the AP poll. 

Not too much needs to be said about the magnitude of this game - and no one person needs this win more than Coach Charlie Weis. If he can't beat the Trojans this year, with a high powered offense at home, in his 5th season, then when? USC may be a little bit down, but they are still a top 10 team that has owned our program for nearly the past decade. Programs that win games like this one often reap the benefits for years, via a renewed confidence. The tide turns with games like this one, should the servant rise up and beat the master. 

Ending the USC winning streak would be huge for not only Weis and QB Jimmy Clausen - but the residual effect of a win may be even bigger on future recruiting. Much like in 2005, the Irish have a recruiting visitor list for tomorrow that is "sickening". Many of these top recruits need to see more job stability for Weis before they commit. A win would stabilize the program and Weis's reign atop it. A loss - particularly a bad one - will crack the foundation. Might as well call Saturday "Judgement Day" for Weis and the program. 

Now, on to the game preview. When USC has the ball . . .

• USC's Offensive Line will impose their will  -  Man on man, the Irish defensive line cannot beat the Trojans star studded offensive line. That means the Irish are going to have to outscheme the Trojans, which is difficult but not impossible. USC is 17th in the country in rushing the ball, averaging 208 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. If the Irish surrender 200 yards rushing, its going to be difficult to win the game. 
• Will the Irish defense blitz?  Tenuta always tries to confuse the offensive line with blitzes and fake blitzes, in an effort to throw a wrench in the run game. This season, he has seemed to blitz too often, and has been too predictable. Tenuta is known for his play calling though, and he is flat out due for a brilliantly called defensive game. Blitzing in the right gap, on the right play, will be the way the Irish stop the USC rushing attack. Of course, the downside of blitzing is the vulnerability to the passing attack. USC has some very solid receivers in Damien Williams and Ronald Johnson, as well as solid receiving options at TE and FB. That's why blitzing at the right time is key. 
• The Irish must get the Trojans in tough 3rd downs  - Running the ball won't be the huge weapon it is for the Trojans if the Irish can get them in some 3rd and medium or longs. The Trojans are 113th in the country in 3rd down conversions, converting an abysmal 29% of them thru 5 games. Getting the Trojans in 3rd and 5 and longer will maximize the Irish defense's chance against the Men of Troy. 

When Notre Dame has the ball . . .

• Run the football . . . after we establish the pass  -  If the Irish gain 50 yards rushing or less, no chance of winning; 100 yards on the ground, and we'll have a shot at winning. If the Irish are able to gain 150 yards, look out. Unfortunately the Trojans are giving up only 65 yards per game on the ground, ranking 5th in the country. Unless some extraordinary things happen (turnovers, big plays, weird time of possession), the Irish are going to have to get more rushing yards than the USC defense is giving upon average. Remember, when Weis outrushes an opponent while coaching at Notre Dame, he is undefeated, 18-0. Likely the only way we run the ball over 100 yards is after we spread USC out and have some passing success. Expect some draws and misdirection, moreso than straight pound it at 'em. Hughes and Allen will have to break some tackles as well. 
• Spread it around in the passing game  -  Golden Tate is going to be more covered this game than ever before. Kyle Rudolph might be matched up with Taylor Mays, the 6'3" 230 pound beast safety that will be drafted in the top 10 in April. That means Shaq Evans, Robby Parris, and Duval Kamara - each taking reps as the WR opposite of Tate or in the slot - are going to have to step up. If those 3 guys don't combine for at least 7 catches, I don't see the Irish winning this game. Golden and Kyle will get their chances as well - and we must capitalize on them. Man to man coverage on either won't come on every play. 
• Patience  -  Jimmy has played almost perfectly this season, as every defense has been unable to keep up with Clausen. USC is going to bring athletes and coverages that will test Jimmy's patience a bit. Being patient and taking what the defense gives him will be critical - particularly since the Trojan offense is not a quick strike offense like in past years. The Irish will have to score plenty to win, no doubt, but I don't believe the Irish have to score a touchdown on every possession. Some of the best plays made in this game are going to be the plays where Jimmy hits the check down option, or throws the ball away. 

 

There are a lot of good stats out there, especially ones that start with "USC has outscored the Irish . . ." or "Notre Dame has failed to score (against USC) . . ."  No need to rehash all these stats that say the Irish can't beat the Trojans. Doubt certainly lives in the hearts and minds of many Irish fans. The close wins in games that shouldn't have been close were certainly thrilling, but also somewhat disheartening. Many will point towards the close wins over Michigan St, Purdue, and Washington as evidence that the Irish will fail against the Trojans; I say that hidden within the 3 victories lie our greatest strengths  -  experience winning close games, a quarterback who has led come from behind 4th quarter drives in each of the last 4 games, and timely defensive stops.   

These strengths propel the Irish to victory over the Trojans, in a great battle in cool weather. The Irish make one more play than the Trojans - as the Notre Dame Stadium fans, Notre Dame mystique, and the experience in close games give the Irish an edge. Not a perfect performance on the field for either team  -  but a perfect day for Notre Dame:

Notre Dame  31     USC  24

(Vatican Smoke's record - 4-1 straight up, 1-4 vs the spread)

If you're a fan of college football, I'd watch this one if I were you.