Never too early to go bowling . . .

The Irish defeated Washington State in San Antonio this past weekend, 40-14. A game that was never in question was a welcome relief to many Irish fans - especially the 50,000 or so in the Alamo Dome. San Antonio was an awesome trip - very similar to a mid season bowl game, with perfect weather, a great destination, and a neutral site atmosphere. Halloween made things a bit interesting as well (costumes - I was a Big 10 Official). 

After 8 games, the Irish sit at 6-2, in line with preseason predictions by many (including myself). The remaining 4 games are all losable games, certainly. Navy, @Pitt, UConn, @Stanford. The Irish will likely be favored in at least 3 of those games, but only more than slight favorites in the two home games (ND-11pts over Navy is this week's line). Forget whether Notre Dame "should" beat these teams - reality is that the Irish could very easily lose to any of these squads.

What's at stake for the Irish in these final 4 games? Without dismissing any of the final four opponents, lets take a look at what the final 4 games could mean for the bowl picture (based on a record during these final 4 games):. 

0-4     With a record of 6-6, the possibilities are actually the most complex. The Irish could go to any of the unfulfilled bowls (like the Hawaii Bowl last year), which is tough to predict. Likely the Irish would not be selectable under their current bowl game agreements (for 2009, the BCS, Cotton, Gator, and Sun Bowls - with Champs Sports entering the equation in 2010). Lets hope we're not revisiting this topic ever again. 

• Most Likely Bowl at this Record  =  Toilet Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of occurence = 5%

1-3     The Sun Bowl and Gator Bowl would be the possibilities here, with an overall record of 7-5. Each of the bowls can select a non-BCS bound Irish team once during the 4 seasons of 2006 thru 2009 (this is the last year, and the Irish are eligible, not having been to either bowl game). The Gator and Sun Bowl together have one agreement with the Big East, Big 12, and Notre Dame. While the Gator matches one team from the Big 12/Big East/Notre Dame pool against an ACC team, the Sun Bowl does the same against a Pac 10 team. The agreement stipulates that the Sun and Gator alternate between Big 12 and Big East selections, with each having the 1 time option of Notre Dame. Last year, the Gator selected a Big 12 team (Nebraska) while the Sun Bowl selected a Big East team (Pitt), meaning those conferences will be flip-flopped this year. That means the 2010 Gator Bowl must select a Big East team or Notre Dame, while the Sun Bowl must select Big 12 or Notre Dame (Gator Bowl always gets the first pick over the Sun Bowl, when applicable).

If Pittsburgh beats the Irish and does not go to the BCS, it would be hard for the Gator Bowl to turn down Big East #2 Pittsburgh (or 10-2 West Virginia) in favor of 7-5 Notre Dame. Simply put: if the Irish go 1-3 down the stretch, then the Irish likely head to the Sun Bowl, who would choose the Irish over a mid tier Big 12 team. Certainly there is a chance of a 7-5 Irish team getting the Gator Bowl nod over an 11-1 or 10-2 Pitt or West Virginia team; assuming the 7-5 Irish lose @Pitt, a Gator Bowl bid isn't likely.

• Most Likely Bowl at 1-3  =  Sun Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of occurrence of 1-3 down the stretch = 5%

2-2 or 3-1     The situation at 8-4 or better greatly improves the options for the Irish. The same players (Gator and Sun Bowls, described above) are also viable options here; but the major new player would be the Cotton Bowl, which typically matches up SEC vs Big 12. Notre Dame has an agreement for the 2006-2009 seasons (all bowl agreements are 4 years and all expire after this season, with new 4 year agreements taking place starting next season) to select Notre Dame 1 time during that 4 year span (ending this year), in lieu of the SEC team (meaning ND would play a Big 12 team, being selected instead of an 8-4 or 9-3 Auburn, Ole Miss, or South Carolina). 

At 8-4 or 9-3, its really Gator or Cotton, with a very slim chance of a Sun Bowl bid for a badly beaten 8-4 ND squad. I believe Notre Dame would be able to choose between competing offers from the Gator and Cotton (couldn't confirm). The Gator's advantage is that NBC televises the game; while the Cotton has the edge on tradition (Irish have played in the game 7 times since 1970), location (Texas, for recruiting), appeal (first Cotton Bowl or bowl game played in the Cowboys new stadium), and time (January 2nd at 2pm, not New Years Day at 1pm like the Gator). Look for the Irish to choose the Cotton Bowl over the Gator Bowl if given the opportunity. The likely Cotton Bowl opponent would be Oklahoma St/Oklahoma/Nebraska, whereas Gator would feature Virginia Tech or Miami. 

• Most Likely Bowl at 2-2 = Gator Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of Occurrence = 25%
• Most Likely Bowl at 3-1 down the stretch = Cotton Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of Occurrence = 40%   

4-0     BCS appears likely if the Irish win out, although we could fall back into the Gator or Cotton Bowl if a few things happen. After studying the BCS selection process, here are how the 10 spots (4 bowls plus National Championship game = 10 spots) break down:

• 6 spots go to conference champions (ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, Pac 10)
• 4 spots remain for any "automatic qualifiers" (assuming top 2 BCS spots are occupied by the 2 of the conference champions noted above), which include:
1. Non-BCS conference champion ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings**
2. Non-BCS conference champion ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS, yet ahead of a BCS conference champ in the standings**
3. Notre Dame if finishes in the top 8 of the BCS (not likely even if we win out)
4. BCS conference team thats not a conference champ, but #3 or #4 in the final BCS standings
• Any remaining spots are filled by "at large" teams, which must have 9 wins and be in the top 14 of the final BCS standings. No more than 2 teams from any given conference may appear in BCS games.  
• ** = One major caveat to #1 and #2 above - only 1 non-BCS automatic qualifier can occur each year. TCU and Boise St - while both likely to finish in the top 10 - are competing with each other for one automatic spot (likely TCU due to schedule strength). The loser goes into the pool for an "at-large" bid. 

This year, here is how the 10 BCS bids will likely play out if I had to guess:

• 6 Conference Champions  -  Florida (SEC), Texas (Big 12), Georgia Tech (ACC), Cinncinnati (Big East), Oregon (Pac 10), Iowa (Big 10). Florida and Texas are title game
• 2 Automatic Qualifiers  -  TCU & Alabama. A close loss to Florida would likely keep the Tide at #3 or #4 in BCS, meaning they would be automatic. 
• 2 "At Large" Qualifers  -  to be selected from any of the other teams in the top 14 left, with the SEC likely at their max and thus further SEC teams disqualified (LSU). Likely teams in this pool would be Penn. St, Ohio St, USC, West Virginia or Pitt, Virginia Tech, Boise St, Utah, and Notre Dame. The Irish would very likely get selected as 1 of the 2 among those teams, assuming the Irish get into the top 14 in the BCS Standings (likely, considering we sit at #22 now and would move up with a victory over #13 in the BCS standings, Pitt). 

So for 4-0, with a final record of 10-2, it looks like the Irish would be BCS bound. 

• Most Likely Bowl at 4-0 = Fiesta Bowl or Sugar Bowl (two bowls that would have lost conference champs to the BCS Title Game)
• Estimated % Chance of Occurrence = 25%

The bowl picture is much clearer than I expected for the Irish, considering how a third of the season remains. Now, its prediction time:

Preseason Prediction for the Irish:  9-3, Gator Bowl vs North Carlina

Current Prediction for the Irish:  9-3, Cotton Bowl vs Oklahoma

Either of these scenarios would be an acceptable and "solid but not great" season for the Irish. 

Checkback tomorrow for the Navy game preview.