Game preview this week will be a little bit different than the "what to watch for". Navy and Notre Dame know each other very well, and typically don't surprise each other. Each year, many Irish fans have a little bit of anxiety about this game (at least I do). There are plenty of reasons Navy will be competitive and could beat us, while there are also plenty of reasons this game shouldn't be close. Both sides are compelling. Lets take a look at each:
Reasons Navy could win . . .
- 2007 & 2008 - The Middies beat the Irish in 2007, 46-44 (OT), the last time they played in Notre Dame Stadium. While the Irish were favored to win that game, Navy featured one of its best offenses ever that season, while the 2007 Irish were possibly the worst Irish team in 50 years. Navy knows they can beat Notre Dame . . . which they almost did last year, having the ball in the final minute in Irish territory down by 6.
- Defense - The 2009 Navy Defense is the best defense the Middies have had in years. Currently ranked #27 in the country in defensive yards allowed (ahead of Boston College, USC, and Virginia Tech), allowing only 316 yards per game. Navy is balanced but better against the pass, ranking 23rd in the country by air, 59th in defending by ground. Last year the Irish pounded the Middies, who will undoubtedly employ a bend but not break approach against the Irish passing attack. Problem is that with both teams running the ball, the game shortens, and mistakes are amplified . . .
- Time of Possession - Navy is 2nd in the country in time of possession, while the Irish are a very close 5th in the country in TOP. This will be an interesting battle for the clock. If the Middies can win the time of possession, look for this game to be close. Win the TOP, throw in a fumble and some onside kicks . . . and its 2008 all over again. Navy will be more disciplined than you at all times, and will be ready for your mistake.
Reasons Notre Dame cruises to victory . . .
- 2007 & 2008 - Same reason helping both teams? In 2007, Navy's offense was prolific, averaging 350 yards a game rushing; yet Navy needed two point conversions, overtime, and some crazy Irish turnovers to win the game against THE worst Notre Dame team in decades. Navy's offense is not as good this year; and the Irish, well, we've improved a bit since then. In 2008, Notre Dame dominated the football game. Leading 27-7 with 3 minutes to go, on the 5 yard line heading in, the Irish looked to be finishing off the most dominating win over Navy in a number of years. A fumble, a few crazy plays, and then two consecutive onsides kick recoveries in the final 2:30 made the game closer than it was. The Irish only gave up 11 first downs last year, completely dominating the middies until the panic struck in the final 3 minutes. How much has changed?
- Rushing Attack - The Irish finally have a respectable rushing offense, ranked #59 in the country this season. Last year, the Irish racked up 230 yards rushing with last year's below average attack. While the Middies have improved greatly on defense, the Irish should be able to get to 200 yards rushing without breaking a sweat. Remember, Charlie Weis is 20-0 when he outrushes his opponent. If the Irish outrush the middies, which is very possible, it will take some crazy plays, turnovers, and onsides kicks for the Middies to win.
- Onsides Kicks - While the Middies may have some other tricks up their sleeves, the Irish are not going to be caught off guard and give up 2 straight on sides kicks to Navy. Weis has put his hands teams through all types of on sides kicks in practice this week, which should give the Irish more confidence if the game goes that way. Remember, if the Irish get the first onsides kick last year, the game ends 27-14. The kicks were the key to the Middies fighting back and scaring the sh*t out of Irish fans.
Last year, Weis called 19 passes and 51 rushes. Tomorrow, expect more of the same, as the Irish try to pound it down Navy's throat on the ground, turning the tables on the Middies. Shorten the game for the Middies, giving them a taste of their own medicine. But this year, the Irish will finish the job, not turning the ball over and missing onsides kicks like crazy. Weis will pass if Navy allows, but he will gladly beat the Middies to a pulp on the ground if Navy wants to drop 8 guys into coverage against Clausen, Floyd, Tate, and Rudolph. Look for the Irish defense to have another solid effort against Navy, but give up a few longer passes early before adjusting and locking down.
Official Prediction: Don't bet on this game. The Middies have covered the spread an amazing 9 times in a row within Notre Dame stadium. The Irish are better than the Middies by two TDs, and that's what I am predicting. I wouldn't bet on this game if I were you.
Irish 31 Navy 17
(Vatican Smoke's season record picking the winner straight up, 6-2; against the spread, 4-4)
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