Star Power

Busy day today at Vatican Smoke with not one but two posts in one day. Recruiting rankings are a tenuous topic among many old school and new school college fans. This article in the Wall Street Journal was not surprising to me, although it might be to some.

I have always contended that recruiting rankings on a micro level - for one player - are certainly not perfect projections of that player's potential. However, Rivals and other sites have shown that the chances of making the NFL are higher for 5 stars than 3 stars - significantly in fact. From the 2010 NFL draft's first round, only 1 player was not a 3 star or higher coming out of high school; and since there are only 20 to 25 5 stars nationally per year, the 5 star still had the highest % chance of being drafted in the 1st round.

While there are numerous 5 star busts and 3 star players that make the NFL, the recruiting ranking that really matters is the class ranking for a program - over time. In the Wall Street Journal article from the top, the average star rating for starters is compared for the top schools. Not surprisingly, USC and Florida top the list, followed by Texas, Alabama, LSU, and the rest of the SEC. Yet interestingly enough, the Irish are 3rd. The anti-recruiting ranking folks will point to a potential Irish bias in recruiting rankings - getting higher marks than they deserve. The pro-recruiting folks - myself included - point to the lack of development and good enough coaching. Brian Kelly has developed talent everywhere he has coached, which means the pro-recruiting contingent now has a chance to see whether the Irish recruiting rankings were accurate and Weis did not develop them, or that Irish players get too generous a bump when they commit (which I contend is the opposite of what happens). I hope we see the former validated.

Looking Back - Seniors

With the last home game of the 2008 season being this weekend against Syracuse, we can look back on the senior class and see how they did. On the official roster at UND.com, there are 23 "seniors". Since Notre Dame lists 4th and 5th year players both the same as "seniors", there are players who arrived at Notre Dame in the '04 class, and some that arrived with the '05 class.

Of the 23 seniors, you can break it down like this:

• 9 players have played significant time during their career, and have completed their eligibility
  


• 6 players have played significant time during their career, but have 1 year of eligibility remaining
  


• 8 players are walk ons or did not see much field action during their career; none is likely to be asked to return for a 5th year
  

See the spreadsheet snippet below that details the names in the first two categories of seniors. If you cannot view the spreadsheet via email or RSS reader, click here.

And to put these 2004 and 2005 classes in perspective from an overall talent standpoint, here are the recruiting rankings by the two major services from 2004 through the current class being assembled for 2009. Weis was hired in December 2004 and did partial work on the 2005 class, the full work on the 2006 - forward classes (click here if you cannot view):

As you can see, the talent level in 2004 and 2005 was rated very poorly. In many's opinion, the very bad national ranking for these two classes is what pulled the rug out on Ty Willingham. Losing is bad, but with good recruiting in the pipeline (like Charlie), a coach can get a little bit more slack.

Digging into the 2004 and 2005 classes actually shows them to be significantly worse than the ranking would entail. In 2004, the Irish signed 16 players, which is a small class (20 is about average). Of those 16 players, an amazing 10 players transferred or left school. The top two players in this class were both 3 star rated, being Darius Walker (pictured) and Maurice Crum. The 2005 class was not much better, as only 15 players were signed. Only 3 of these players transferred/left, however. But the only 2 four star players signed in the 2005 class (Joey Hiben and DJ Ford [pictured]) left the team and transferred, respectively.

The point of this post is twofold - first, to congratulate and recognize the seniors who will walk through the tunnel for the last time on Saturday. Terrail Lambert, Maurice Crum, David Bruton, and Pat Kuntz will be sorely missed by the defense, as each is a multi-year starter. Maurice Crum has now started for 4 straight seasons, while David Bruton has been a significant contributor for 4 seasons as well. Bruton will be a first day pick in the NFL, with his rangy speed at free safety. Turkovich, Lambert, and Crum may have a chance to make an NFL team, but at this point the future is uncertain. These guys have fought hard through the firing of Willingham (the '04 class) and the transition to the Weis era. Bruton and Crum have been big time leaders for our defense, and have stayed completely out of trouble. Kudos to all of these guys as they move forward with their young lives.

The second point of the post is the obvious one. The lack of talent in the 2004 and 2005 classes explains a lot of the problems of the 2007 and 2008 seasons. I don't care how much talent is in the freshman and sophomore classes, rarely are there good teams that do not have strong junior and senior classes. Sprinkling a few Freshman and Sophomores with some experienced guys can work, but making the freshman and sophomore classes the foundation of your team will not. 2005 and 2006 football seasons had strong upper classes, and you saw the results. 2007 and 2008 do not. 2009 will.

I am not blaming the recent struggles of Notre Dame football fully on Ty Wilingham. Weis has made a huge number of coaching mistakes, equally as devastating as Willingham's lack of 2004-2005 recruiting. Willingham is gone forever and he is not the point.

My point is that come next season, the 2009 season, the excuses are over. All 4 classes of players will have been solidly ranked classes with depth and a minimal amount of attrition. This will be the year that Weis can best be judged by, more than any of his previous 4 years.

Shaq Fu

This morning Notre Dame received another committ for its 2010 class in Shaquelle Evans, WR from Inglewood, California. The 6 ' 1" 203 pound wideout is a huge get for the Irish, especially since it marks another California recruiting victory head to head over USC. Evans was a former "soft verbal" of USC, until he took his official visit to Notre Dame and was blown away.

Here are the recruiting rankings and profile links on Evans - Scout.com ranks him a 4 star, and the #8 WR in the nation. Rivals.com ranks Evans as the #7 WR in the country, also a 4 star (rated #51 prospect overall). ESPN Recruiting ranks Evans as the #3 WR in the country, #21 prospect overall (note that the ESPN Recruiting link includes free video highlights - pretty cool). And for those of you that don't believe in recruiting rankings, the kid had offers from Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, Michigan, UNLV, Cal, Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon, Colorado, and Notre Dame. So obviously, there peoples that think this kid can play.

The more elite WR talent Charlie can collect, the more problems defenses will have against the Irish. Matchup up "Shaq's" talents with Michael Floyd and Golden Tate will cause stopping the Notre Dame offense to be as difficult as solving the Pythagorean theorem. Now for some Shaq quotes:

Lets hope Shaq can be half as good as the real Shaq. I am going to have a lot of fun with the name "Shaq" over the next four years.

ND Tidbits

A few interesting items in the news regarding Notre Dame football over the past few weeks.

• Chris Zorich returns to ND in an Athletic Department role. He was a poster child of the Lou Holtz era, and is very popular around the Chicago area. Always good news.


• Not only is yours truly drinking the Kool-aid, thinking the Irish will have a good 2008 - so is one Irish assistant coach (Bernie Parmalee, pictured). His comments are vague, but entertaining for me to hear. Look for the Irish record to improve slightly, while their competitiveness and intensity improve dramatically.


• Notre Dame football team's cumulative GPA was once again over 3.0, for an unprecedented 6th straight semester. I've been an athlete at Notre Dame, and I know: there are no joke majors. There is tons of support and study sessions that athletes are required to attend, however. Even though I was a 4.0 high school student, I had to attend counseling sessions, study halls, and all other sorts of meetings to make sure that I was in fact succeeding academically. Kudos to Weis and the Athletic Academic staff and support team for doing it the right way.


• Very very quiet on the search for an Athletic Director. Impressively quiet. There have been some names floating around, in particular Steve Orsini (pictured) of SMU, who is reportedly a qualified and interested candidate. In addition, Bubba Cunningham and Joe Castiglione, AD's currently at Tulsa and Oklahoma, have been mentioned as possible candidates. We really don't know who, if anyone, has officially been contacted. And we don't have a timetable for a decision. I would assume in the next month, but who knows.


• Freshman arrived on campus this past Monday for summer school and essentially the beginning of their tenure as Irish freshman. The #2 ranked recruiting class in the country will be very important to the next few seasons, so hopefully they get started on the right foot. They have all been assigned numbers, covered in this article where the history of every number is mentioned. Pretty cool stuff. My favorite is that there will be 2 freshman wearing the #9, Tommy Zbikowski's old number. Both Kyle Rudolph (Freshman, speedy tight end from Cinncinnati) as well as Ethan Johnson (pictured, Freshman, absolute stud defensive end from Oregon) will be donning the great #9. Those 2 are easily 2 of our top 5 recruits signed last year, if not our top 2. Also interestingly, is that California QB Dayne Crist will be wearing good ole #10, last worn by this guy . . .
  
  


• Interesting take on Notre Dame and the BCS, conference situation in the Orlando newspaper. I agree, ND needs to win to maintain the power that it has at the table. More importantly, we need an Athletic Director that will continue to lead in a way that is best for ND and our independence, as well as meshing with current college football conferences.

99 Days . . .

. . . until the Irish take the field against San Diego St. Not too much happening in college football until camps open in August, so don't expect much from this blog. A few tidbits of note over the past few weeks:

• Coach Weis visited soldiers in Iraq, touring with other college football coaches. By all accounts it was a great experience for Weis and the military alike. The coaches coached and refereed a flag football game on Memorial Day, staying afterwards to sign autographs for hours. Interestingly enough, the coaches were asked to write messages on some bombs to be dropped in Afghanistan. Weis wrote, "You will lose. Go Irish!" on his bomb, sparking the creation of t-shirts everywhere. I still say 2008's "The Shirt" for Notre Dame football should say: "Notre Dame Football 2008 - No more F_cking Around"




• Notre Dame appeared at #19 in Phil Steele's preseason poll, being released over this past week and next week. No that's not a typo, and no this is not for basketball. Phil Steele is known for his analytic approach and is incredibly well respected in the college football community. No doubt he sees the Irish much weakened schedule as a big harbinger of the Irish return to relevancy. Personally I think he is a bit optimistic, but its nice to see an objective analyst make a call instead of me/message board dude/Lou Holtz making the claim. Also nice to see BYU at #17 in his pole. Not sure why I mentioned that . . .
  
  
• Army and Notre Dame will likely begin playing again in 2010 or later. Great news for traditionalists, although many younger Irish fans are tired of playing service academies. The games will be at Notre Dame Stadium for Irish home years, and in neutral sites like Philadelphia, Orlando, Chicago, etc. for Army host years (similar to the Navy series). Every schedule has to have some "softer" teams, so ours might as well be service academies, which I have enormous respect for (insert Navy joke here). As long as we keep the Michigan and USCs, as well as some new fresh rivalries on the schedule (i.e. Oklahoma home and away in 2012 and 2013), I will be fine. Would be great to add more SEC teams like Georgia or Alabama onto the schedule, but that looks doubtful as the push is fore more neutral site games that essentially are under Irish control. Big, "premier" programs would only play home and home most likely.
  
• One transfer out, two players return. Freshman linebacker Aaron Nagel will seek a transfer after being buried on the depth chart and potentially behind incoming freshman this fall. Wish him well, and thank him for opening a schollie for someone else. In great news, last year starting defensive tackle Pat Kuntz will be returning to campus, after leaving due to academic reasons in the spring. Sophomore Tight End Will Yeatman has also returned, after being suspending for a drinking incident on campus. Yeatman missed the spring, which included his participation on the Irish lacrosse team, on which he earned National Lacrosse Rookie of the Year in 2007. At 6 foot 6, 260 pounds, Yeatman is the perfect size for a tight end, and also can lay hat on the lacrosse field. Both will start or at the minimum play significant minutes for the Irish.
  
• Talent levels in 2008 are arguably back to a competitive level, although not in the senior or 5th year senior classes. The "star" system for high school recruits has been pretty steady since about 2001, and many are starting to see a direct correlation between NFL draft picks and successful college football programs and the star rankings out of high school. In short, 5 star players have statistically shown to have a much higher chance of being a top 2 round NFL draft pick than 3 star players, as these high school talent evaluators are getting pretty good at what they do. The hard issue is how do you compare a senior in college that was a former 5 star signee, with a true freshman 5 star? Obviously the former is more valuable, and that's what the Irish lack. The Irish 1st - 3rd year players represent 3 straight top 8 ranked classes in 2006 - 2008 (and the top RB in the nation Cierre Wood (pictured) on the way for 2009); however, the lack of talent in the 4th and 5th year classes will continue to hurt the Irish in 2008. Come 2009 though, the Irish will have no excuses for not winning 9 games a year.

Hopefully the team is getting into shape and the incoming freshman will work hard to be ready to contribute come September. Probably won't be too much blogging on the Irish until a few pre-season posts come August. Talk is cheap, and all the Irish can do to gain respect back is to show up in September. My official prediction for the season will be decided later, but I look for the Irish to be much more competitive and enjoyable to watch this year.

Notre Dame Spring Football 2008

Spring brings new beginnings, both to the flowers and trees, but also to the mosquitoes and other annoying insects. Which will be a more appropriate analogy for Notre Dame Football this spring?

So far, here's the run down on the major occurences since the end of last season (which ended on a two game winning streak):

- Bill Lewis retires as Secondary coach, making way for famed Defensive Coordinator Jon Tenuta to join the staff as Defensive LB Coach and essentially co-Defensive Coordinator with Corwin Brown (although not officially).

- Jimmy Clausen gains some pounds - now fully able to lift weights due to his elbow healing, Jimmy reportedly weighs in about 15 pounds heavier than the end of last year, at a solid 212 pounds

- The Offensive Line has bulked up, led by RT Sam Young packing on about 20 pounds to weigh in a 330 pounds. These guys are finally maturing physically, and also mentally by all accounts

- The #2 recruiting class in the nation was signed in February. This fall will definitely see the arrival of arguably the best recruiting class in Notre Dame history. Time will tell if they pan out, but I'd rather be #2 in the rankings of high school recruits than #20.

- A new Charlie Weis emerges - the formerly gruff, interview declining and "arrogant" Weis has been replaced by someone who is more open, humble, and grounded. Players over to his house for dinner, more meetings with prominent ND alumni, and even Weis relenquishing play calling duties come this fall, all add up to a man who knows that the 2007 season was his one free pass.

- Secondary and Running Back Depth - With the infusion of talent the past three years, arguably the two positions where Notre Dame is the healthiest in terms of numbers and talent is the secondary and running back. This depth never was achieved under Willingham or Davie at either positions.

What are the most important Papal tidbits stemming from spring practice?

1. Jon Tenuta - His hiring was bigger than any recruit we got in our #2 rated class in February. Known for his relentless blitzing and aggressive defense, his knowledge and fire will greatly help a defense that needs direction. Tenuta shut down the Irish when he coordinated the Georgia Tech defense during 2006 and 2007, and decided to leave when knew Yellow Jackets coach Paul Johnson was introduced. His defenses at Georgia Tech never were outside of the top 30 in total defense or total rushing, and in 2007 his Georgia Tech team led the nation in sacks. Not only will his knowledge help, but also passionate yelling during practice (be wary of F bombs):

2. Jimmy Clausen - Weis says that he is ahead of Brady Quinn at the same age. Hard to argue, especially since Jimmy had a better Freshman season than Brady did, by most accounts. He didnt play as much as Brady, but had better numbers during his minutes, despite playing fresh off an injury. Jimmy has gained weight, is taking the reins of the offense, and is clearly the man. No QB controversy will allow Jimmy to focus on absorbing as much from Coaches Weis, Haywood, and Paulus. Look for him to have a solid year, with flashes of brilliance, but also flashes of youth. 2009, this guy will be ready to go, trust me.

3. Lets Get Physical, Physical - After not practicing "tackling to the ground" (aka, full tackling) last spring or last August in camp, the Irish have taken a new approach to try and address the lack of toughness last season. Now the Irish are hitting and tackling full speed in practice, compared to a half tackle of sorts last year. Basic fundamentals of tackling, blocking, and hitting were awful nearly the entire year. Weis has learned that at the college level, to be a good hitter and tackler, you have to practice doing it, unlike the Pro level. Practices are leaps and bounds more physical this year, as evidenced by a few "scraps" here and there between players, which Weis later called "a positive thing":

4. The Talent is Maturing - The past three recruiting classes have been ranked in the top 7 in the country. The only other programs consistently ranked at the top with us are Florida and USC over the past 3 years. Obviously those programs are well ahead of the Irish. They are ahead of the Irish due to their 4th and 5th year players, not their 1st thru 3rd year players, however. Too many 1st and 2nd year players saw the field last year for the Irish, and it showed. Hopefully that fire of a season, combined with physical and mental maturity that naturally comes between the ages of 18 and 20, will allow these kids to take the quantum leaps in their game. Many players see their biggest improvement between year 1 and 2 of their playing time. Time will tell if this hold true for the Irish in 2008.

Jimmy Clausen is a man, the offensive line is beefed up. The defensive backs are all over the place, 10 deep. The linebackers blitz every play and can get to every quarterback but ours in practice. The WRs look like pro-caliber talents out there, and heck, we have 3 bonafide NFL runningbacks.

Oh wait, its spring ball. Seriously though, yall have to try this Kool-Aid - so good.

Back From Europe - Grab Bag

My apologies for not having posted since mid December. I have been busy with work, then out of the country the past few weeks. A lot as happened as we have started 2008. Here are a few observations:

The Titans made the playoffs but didnt make any "noise" like I predicted below. Despite holding LT and the Chargers to 40 yards rushing, the Titans were defeated 17-6. Two big factors helped us out in getting to the playoffs, the Browns losing to the Bengals in week 16, and the Colts laying down for us in week 17. We held the third tiebreaker over the Browns (record against common opponents - see my post below about help wanted Titans playoffs). The Browns had a much better offense than the Titans, but the bread and butter of this years team was a very physical brand of defense that nobody ran on. Our pass defense was strong as well, including our ability to pressure the quarterback. San Diego eliminated us from the playoffs with 17 points, obviously a victory for the Titans defense. Big offseason to dos: The defense must maintain by signing Haynesworth, Vince Young must continue to develop, and we must get some playmakers at WR.

Notre Dame football recruiting continues to shine, ranking the top class in college football on both rivals and scout.com. At the US Army All American game, which displays most of the top high school football talent in the US each year, Notre Dame had an astounding 14 committments in the game, a record. Highlighted on offense by Dayne Crist, top 5 QB, who connected with two Irish WR committs for 3 touchdowns in the game (Michael Floyd and John Goodman). On defense Darius Fleming (ILB) impressed, as well as less heralded defensive tackle Brandon Newman. We had a major decommittment, however, in Omar Hunter, who will likely sign with Florida, making two committments pulled from ND by Florida in 2 years. Omar is a stud DT, and is a major blow. However, overall talent on the Dline we are getting this year will be huge for our teams future depth. At this point, we need to maintain our current 22 committments, and hopefully add one or two more towards the finish (February 6th, signing day).

The NFL Playoffs are here. Look for my playoff edition of Holy Wagers from the Vatican in a post later today.

What now?

Notre Dame football is in a very poor position right now, obviously. A few streaming thoughts about the state of our program following a beat down by the Air Force Academy this past Saturday:

1. "Things are never as good or as bad as they seem." Lou Holtz

We have young talent, and more coming in with this recruiting class. A lot of young players need an offseason or two before things "click". I certainly hope that is the case with our talented freshman and sophomore classes. I expect them to get better this offseason, significantly better.

2. Firing Charlie Weis is not an option. Think about it, then move on. Nothing to see here folks. Firing Weis would set back our program 10 years, and dissolve quite possibly the greatest recruiting class in the history of Notre Dame. We inked him to 10 years, and whether we like it or not, we are tied to him as a football program. As he goes, so will we.

3. Jimmy Clausen is improving. Hard to point that out with the state of our offense. Against a subpar Air Force defense, Clausen completed 55% of his passes, which didnt include 5 drops that were WR miscues. He had 260 yards, 3 TDs, and no interceptions or fumbles. At the end of this year, he is starting to look like what we expected. I think he is more poised and accurate than Brady Quinn was at the same age. Above I said that our program is tied to Weis. We are also tied to Jimmy - if he's not playing or not playing well, so will be the state of our program.

4. Weis has messed this season up considerably, and gets the largest slice of the "blame pie". He has been teaching calculus to kids that need addition and subtraction learning. He did not transition his coaching to a style thats better for younger, more inexperienced players.

5. This is only Weis's 4th year as a head coach at any level, and his first with a "young" team. Weis has been served a boat load of the Patriots famed "Humble Pie" this season; lets hope that he has learned and will adapt with all the lessons he hopefully has learned this season. For example, I hope that he realizes that in college football, its more about talent and execution than it is at the pro level, where talent and experience are relatively even. In the pro game, X's and O's are much more important with the playing field more even. Not so in college.

With an easier schedule in 2008 (remove Georgia Tech, Penn St, UCLA, & Air Force, add San Diego St, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, & Syracuse), and young talent that should improve, there is no way Weis shouldnt win 7 games next year. If he doesn't win 7 next year, fire him. That wont happen though, as I think you can take 8-4 or better to the bank next year. Mark it down.

Recruiting Help

Too bad Notre Dame is struggggglllllling a bit. Instead of blabbering about excuses and discussing how we played, I think stepping back is the only way to digest this season.

So I will start with a question - how does a program recruit new players to come play for a 1-7 team that ranks dead last in nearly every offensive category, and not much better in defensive categories? You sell playing time, and simply ask the recruit, "Well you tell me, do you think you can get out there and make a difference next year?" Recruits are listening.

The Irish picked up our #WR target recruit over the weekend (Michael Floyd), and can likely land 3 more top 100 recruits. This recruiting class, if it keeps going and holds together, will be the greatest recruiting class in the history of Notre Dame. Scout.com and Rivals.com both have the class firmly entrenched at the #1 ranking. Its really amazing considering how the season has gone. The recruits responding the way they have tell me that Charlie does know what he's doing, and these kids and their parents recognize that.

Eventually the tide will turn, and I think that historically this season and maybe a part of next season will be remembered as the fire that forged our program into the future. I really hope that I'm right . . . certainly something good must come out of this season, which has been nothing but a disaster. To take the big picture view is the only hope for this team, and for Irish fans.