Bend, not Break

For some time, its been said that Notre Dame's defense was a bend but not break unit. I think that term applies to every bad defense - but should it? Last two year's have seen Notre Dame defenses ranked in the bottom third of division 1-A - which to me, is a broken, bent over defense. While the personnel on defense has dictated a possible bend not break strategy as a solution, Jon Tenuta (ex Irish DC) did not take that approach with his planning - preferring aggression and blitzing on all downs. The past two years felt like Jon Tenuta was trying to beat someone up with a pillow - swinging hard and often, but forgetting that he didn't have the tools to execute.

After one game, and through the many preseason and midweek interviews of Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco, the Irish truly appear to be a defense looking to mitigate its weaknesses, and reacting to the offense - rather than ignoring them and trying to dictate to the difficult to stop spread offenses in college football. Against Purdue, the Irish avoided giving up the big play or giving up much against the run - essentially shifting their weakness towards the short pass.

How will the Irish adapt their defensive approach to the Wolverines on Saturday at 330pm ET? I expect a similar approach - preventing the deep pass or long run, while giving up short passes - which in Michigan's case, are often short QB runs. Look for Michigan to get their yards and their points, but for the Irish defensive approach in the red zone to be the difference in the game. Giving Denard Robinson a huge spread out zone inside the red zone - forcing him to make a difficult pass, while also watching his every move - should give the Irish a good chance for an interception or holding Michigan to a few field goals.

On offense, I don't see how Michigan can cover ND's WRs. They couldn't last year, having one of the worst pass defenses the Irish faced all season (Navy was light years better against the pass). This year, Michigan has only 2 scholarship CBs. The question is not if Irish WRs will be open, but whether we can protect Crist and whether he'll hit them. I think a very good, not great day from Crist, combined with another balanced, workman like day from the running game, will give the Irish all the points they need.

With the weather potentially wet - look for the passing games to become easier, while the running games become more difficult. Advantage Irish. Its also nice to know that the Irish special teams are likely going to be prepared and able to execute - whereas the 2009 team gave up critical field position and a TD return to Michigan. The underdog performs well in this series, so nothing should be taken for granted; but on paper and based on what we know about Brian Kelly and his staff, I see a great opportunity for the Irish.

Prediction:


IRISH   31    MICHIGAN  20

(For the season, 1-0 in predictions straight up, 0-0-1 against the spread)