Grizz Summer Improvement

A hot stove" of Grizzlies activity over the past couple of weeks:

• Grizz hire Kevin O'Neil as defensive expert/assistant coach



• Grizz officially sign Marc Gasol from Spain



• Arthur and Mayo make summer league debut

Kevin O'Neil is known as a defensive specialist, and his hiring is a welcome one. Experience on both the college and pro level will give him a better chance than most at fixing the biggest problem the Grizz have - defense. Hard to measure the impact of an assistant coach. Boston hired Tom Thibodeau, a defensive specialist, before this past season, and we all saw what happened there - the best defensive team in the league, and a NBA Championship. Certainly the big acquisitions of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen were the most important ingredient, but defensive coaches can bring an attitude and a commitment to the defensive end that the Grizz sorely lack. Lets hope the former coach that appeared in "Hoop Dreams" can do the same with the Grizz.

Marc Gasol is an exciting signing for the Grizz, but certainly one that most fans will not blink twice at. I've covered Gasol quite a bit, and made no qualms about my thoughts - Gasol will be more liked and better for the Grizz than his brother. That doesn't mean he will be an all star, but he will be a better fit, being younger, tougher, and bigger than his older brother. Gasol is a big center that is a much more natural center than his "softer" brother Pau who is more of a forward without power. Marc can bang, get tougher points and rebounds, and play some defense. He doesn't have the shooting or post skills of Pau, but he will develop and certainly be more palpable to Grizz fans.

At the end of the day, OJ Mayo and Darrell Arthur will need to be the sparkplugs to get this city back to the FedEx Forum. They perform well, the Grizz are in pretty solid shape. They bust, the Grizz are in trouble. Mayo has already brought excitement to the city, as he is having a great summer league week (scored 26 points last night, including a 69 foot buzzer shot!). That said, I think Arthur is the key. Mayo is money in the bank to be a productive NBA player. If Arthur can turn himself into a fundamentally sound starter that can give us rebounding and athleticism at the PF position, then this past draft would be considered an enormous success. There have been numerous comparisons between Arthur and New Orleans' David West - if those hold true, the Grizzlies are going to be darn good in 2 or 3 years.

With the signing of Marc Gasol, plenty of cap space, and rookies Mayo and Arthur, things are looking up for the Grizz. Interesting article here on Sporting News. The writer mostly makes fun of the Grizz, just like all the other national media looking for a story in July, the sahara of the sports writing calendar. But I enjoy how he leaves room at the end of the article for the Grizz to "surprise" him. I really do think a lot of the pundits out there are starting to realize that the Grizz are getting younger, gaining assets, and preparing for a surge in a few years.

Most still laugh at the Pau trade, but lets recap the Pau trade, yet again: The Grizz received cap space, Marc Gasol, Javaris Crittenton, Darrell Arthur, and a 1st Round pick in 2008 for Pau Gasol. As I've said over and over, lets wait for 2-3 more years before judging who got the better of whom in the Pau Gasol trade with LA.

Grizz Taking Form

After the draft, the Grizz now have a bit more clarity as to our starting lineup. Lets dive right in and look at our likely 2 deep lineup, as of now, given a few assumptions. Juan Carlos Navarro is gone, signing with a Spanish team for $20M guaranteed, a huge pay increase from what he could get in the NBA. It also appears that Marc Gasol (pictured)will officially sign a deal. Another assumption is that newly acquired player Antoine Walker will be bought out or traded in the coming weeks.

So given all of that, I believe this is our best starting 5 (backup):

• PG - Mike Conley (Javaris Crittenton/Kyle Lowry)



• SG - OJ Mayo (Marko Jaric)



• SF - Rudy Gay (Greg Buckner)



• PF - Darrell Arthur (Hakim Warrick)



• C - Darko Milicic (Marc Gasol)

Looking at this lineup, you can then see where we have holes (Power Forward) and where we have excess (Point Guard). I will be surprised if Kyle Lowery, Crittenton, and Mike Conley are all still on the opening night roster. I will also be equally surprised if Arthur or Warrick are starting at power forward. Arthur is a rookie, and Warrick is just a backup. Neither is a huge guy that can bang with bigger PFs. Arthur certainly has some promise, but definitely not a lock to be a starter quality guy.

How can we address the two issues - excess at PG, lack of true PF? There are really 3 choices:

1. Trade Lowry/Crittenton for another "asset" - The Boston Celtics went from last to NBA Champions, because they gathered enough young assets to make a few trades. Giving up 4 young players with promise, and a few draft picks, netted them Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Lowry, Crittenton, and Warrick are players with a few years experience that are young and can be very capable backups for a lot of teams. Trading a combination of these guys for a veteran power forward that can defend would be a fantastic get.



2. Sign some free agents - Signing free agents doesn't necessarily mean signing a top guy. We could sign one big name, or 2 to 3 smaller names for the same $$. I think its going to be costly and expensive to get any free agent to Memphis, so how much value we get by trying to sign a big time guy is questionable. Here are a few big time guys that I would love us to go after, but certainly are not likely: Elton Brand, Emeka Okafor, Josh Smith. Of all of those, I think Okafur would be my dream sign. He scores a bit (17ppg) rebounds a lot (11.8 boards) and plays awesome defense (2 blocks per game). He is a restricted free agent with Charlotte, meaning that they can (and likely will) match whatever offer he gets from another team. This would instantly give us a top 5 front court with Gasol, Darko, Okafor, Arthur, and Warrick.



3. Do nothing but let the youth play - Letting Lowry, Crittenton, and Warrick play will help them approve, or "appreciate" as assets. We likely won't be a playoff team next year, so this would just improve their values and make them possibly more attractive and able to fetch more on the trade market. However, getting Conley, Arthur, and Mayo playing time will be much more important, so I really think we need to do a combination of #1 and #2, at least with regard to one of the point guards.

I wish I could suggest some lesser priced veteran Power Forwards that we could sign. This is where the research of Chris Wallace and team comes in. Someone that is a tad bit younger but like a Kurt Thomas or PJ Brown, both power forwards known for defense, would be a fantastic get for the Grizzlies. If Arthur pans out, that would be the most ideal and cheap way to address our PF issues.

There is definitely excitement in Memphis for the first time in a long time. Ticket sales are doing well, even though most of them appear to be season ticket renewals. The fact that most of the ticket holders are renewing their season tickets is huge, because the Grizzlies were expecting a significant drop off after the Draft lottery put the Grizz picking at #5.

This excitement is somewhat artificial - it must be validated on the court this fall. If people see a young team that is exciting and improving, they will come win or lose. Winning must happen at some point for the fans to stay. But an exciting and competitive brand of basketball would be a huge step forward. Fans aren't stupid, as they know we need to take small steps before the giant leap of making the playoffs. I think the fans will respond positively if this team shows progress and promise, even if they still lose a lot. This fall, I guess we'll find out.

Laugh now . . .

When Pau Gasol left the Grizzlies this past February, many fans were excited beyond belief. While Pau was the team's best player, his European style of play and lack of a connection with the fans, caused him to receive the brunt of frustration by Memphis fans. The Grizzlies got seemingly little in return - and many think the deal was "highway robbery by the Lakers", and that Memphis is the "laughingstock of the league." But was the deal really that bad? Lets recap the deal: (note: if viewing this post via email or RSS feed, spreadsheet tables may not be viewable; click on blog link to view)

Kwame Brown really was just a warm body to complete the trade, as his $9M salary for 2008 was the last season on his contract, and he won't be re-signed. Aaron McKie was another expiring contract situation. All of this balancing has to occur as apart of NBA trade rules, relegating that trades must be near equal value. So the real trade was Pau for Crittenton, the two 1st round picks, the ability to use cap space, and none other than Pau's brother, Marc Gasol. Lets break down each piece:

• Javaris Crittenton was the #19 pick of the 2007 NBA Draft. During his one and only season at Georgia Tech as a freshman, he scored 15 points a game and had a solid season. Javaris is only 20 years old currently, and being a 6 foot 5 point guard, he definitely has some solid upside. He hit 20 points in a game twice for the Grizzlies, who played him quite a bit in March and especially April. The Grizzlies are still figuring out if Crittenton has the passing and defensive skills to be a solid NBA player, but the offense is definitely there. How he develops will be a big part of judging the deal.
  



• The 2 first round picks in 2008 and 2010 - The pick in 2008 is at #28 due to the Lakers having a top record in the league. That pick could net someone like Chris Douglas-Roberts, or possibly Joey Dorsey, both former Tigers that could be available at that spot, among others. If this pick nets someone who is on the team for 3 or more years, then the pick was a success. In 2010, we dont know where the pick will fall. If the Lakers are no good (unlikely), this could be a fantastic value if it were to fall within the top 10. What value we obtain from these picks must also be used to judge the balance of the trade.
  



• Cap Space - Many people were upset that Pau was traded for "nothing". Ideally we would have gotten an actual player that would help the team for a few years; however, people dont realize how tough it is to get rid of a deal the size of Pau's in the NBA given the salary structure. Unlike the NFL, you can't simply cut a player and not pay him in the NBA. Interesting column here from Memphis favorite Geoff Calkins, poking fun at the Cap space idea. But in reality, the trade of Pau Gasol cannot be judged until we sign a player with the vacated space. As I've posted about previously, there are a few free agents in 2008, but more in 2009. Luring a player to Memphis will take top dollar, however, as players won't to play for winners. Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, Elton Brand, and Shawn Marion are a few names over the next two summers that might spark interest. Whomever we sign with max $$ will be the most important decision the Grizzlies have ever made.



• Marc Gasol - What, another Gasol?!? Different Gasol though. This version is 7 Foot 1 inch, weighing in at 260 pounds - a much more physical and beefy version of his brother. The Grizzlies acquired his "draft rights", which the Lakers selected in the 2nd round of the 2007 NBA Draft. That means the Grizzlies have the right to negotiate and sign him, but at a cost. As Marc Gasol won the Spanish league MVP this past year, he has risen to be a candidate for the top overall player in Europe. Interesting article here about him, as well as another good one at Sporting News here, both very interesting. The skinny is that most think he is NBA ready right now, and that he would be a top 15 pick in this year's NBA draft if he hadn't already been drafted. He is known for having "very good upper body strength", yet "touch" on his shot and good post moves. Sounds appealing. If Marc comes over to the Grizz for the '08-'09 season, as many expect, and he performs as well as of the last few Spanish league MVPs to jump to the NBA (Luis Sciola, Juan Carlos Navarro, Andres Nocioni), the Grizz would be ecstatic. He would be a solid tandem with Darko at center. We still have a gaping hole at power forward, but you can never have too many centers that are at least decent.
  
  

The Grizzlies will net 4 players (Crittenton, 2 draft picks, Marc Gasol) plus whomever they sign with the cap space (1 or 2 people). So before everyone gets too excited about this deal being "the most lop sided in history", lets judge the deal based upon the 5 or 6 players that end up suiting up for the Grizz over the next few years because of the deal.

The Pope's prediction - Marc Gasol will be as good as his brother, but tougher and more likeable. The Lakers 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010 become solid performers for the Grizz. Javaris Crittenton is either cut or traded at some point in the next year. As for whom we might sign, my best guess would be Shawn Marion or Elton Brand, but thats really tough to predict. If we sign either of those, and my predictions hold true, how about a starting lineup/backup depth chart like this?

Plenty of fun assumptions made for that depth chart, certainly. But would anyone be able to say that our team isn't better off with this depth chart, than with this?