Grizz Taking Form

After the draft, the Grizz now have a bit more clarity as to our starting lineup. Lets dive right in and look at our likely 2 deep lineup, as of now, given a few assumptions. Juan Carlos Navarro is gone, signing with a Spanish team for $20M guaranteed, a huge pay increase from what he could get in the NBA. It also appears that Marc Gasol (pictured)will officially sign a deal. Another assumption is that newly acquired player Antoine Walker will be bought out or traded in the coming weeks.

So given all of that, I believe this is our best starting 5 (backup):

• PG - Mike Conley (Javaris Crittenton/Kyle Lowry)



• SG - OJ Mayo (Marko Jaric)



• SF - Rudy Gay (Greg Buckner)



• PF - Darrell Arthur (Hakim Warrick)



• C - Darko Milicic (Marc Gasol)

Looking at this lineup, you can then see where we have holes (Power Forward) and where we have excess (Point Guard). I will be surprised if Kyle Lowery, Crittenton, and Mike Conley are all still on the opening night roster. I will also be equally surprised if Arthur or Warrick are starting at power forward. Arthur is a rookie, and Warrick is just a backup. Neither is a huge guy that can bang with bigger PFs. Arthur certainly has some promise, but definitely not a lock to be a starter quality guy.

How can we address the two issues - excess at PG, lack of true PF? There are really 3 choices:

1. Trade Lowry/Crittenton for another "asset" - The Boston Celtics went from last to NBA Champions, because they gathered enough young assets to make a few trades. Giving up 4 young players with promise, and a few draft picks, netted them Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Lowry, Crittenton, and Warrick are players with a few years experience that are young and can be very capable backups for a lot of teams. Trading a combination of these guys for a veteran power forward that can defend would be a fantastic get.



2. Sign some free agents - Signing free agents doesn't necessarily mean signing a top guy. We could sign one big name, or 2 to 3 smaller names for the same $$. I think its going to be costly and expensive to get any free agent to Memphis, so how much value we get by trying to sign a big time guy is questionable. Here are a few big time guys that I would love us to go after, but certainly are not likely: Elton Brand, Emeka Okafor, Josh Smith. Of all of those, I think Okafur would be my dream sign. He scores a bit (17ppg) rebounds a lot (11.8 boards) and plays awesome defense (2 blocks per game). He is a restricted free agent with Charlotte, meaning that they can (and likely will) match whatever offer he gets from another team. This would instantly give us a top 5 front court with Gasol, Darko, Okafor, Arthur, and Warrick.



3. Do nothing but let the youth play - Letting Lowry, Crittenton, and Warrick play will help them approve, or "appreciate" as assets. We likely won't be a playoff team next year, so this would just improve their values and make them possibly more attractive and able to fetch more on the trade market. However, getting Conley, Arthur, and Mayo playing time will be much more important, so I really think we need to do a combination of #1 and #2, at least with regard to one of the point guards.

I wish I could suggest some lesser priced veteran Power Forwards that we could sign. This is where the research of Chris Wallace and team comes in. Someone that is a tad bit younger but like a Kurt Thomas or PJ Brown, both power forwards known for defense, would be a fantastic get for the Grizzlies. If Arthur pans out, that would be the most ideal and cheap way to address our PF issues.

There is definitely excitement in Memphis for the first time in a long time. Ticket sales are doing well, even though most of them appear to be season ticket renewals. The fact that most of the ticket holders are renewing their season tickets is huge, because the Grizzlies were expecting a significant drop off after the Draft lottery put the Grizz picking at #5.

This excitement is somewhat artificial - it must be validated on the court this fall. If people see a young team that is exciting and improving, they will come win or lose. Winning must happen at some point for the fans to stay. But an exciting and competitive brand of basketball would be a huge step forward. Fans aren't stupid, as they know we need to take small steps before the giant leap of making the playoffs. I think the fans will respond positively if this team shows progress and promise, even if they still lose a lot. This fall, I guess we'll find out.

Grizzlies' Draft History

The 2008 NBA Draft is Thursday, June 26th, roughly 4 weeks from now. Most all Grizzlies fans are disappointed in not getting Rose or Beasley; however, fans are slowly beginning to become more optimistic about our pick at #5.

Why the optimism? The unknown will always spark optimism from many. Other than the natural optimists (like me and Randy Quaid in Major League 2), a reason to be excited about our pick is the deep talent in the 2008 draft pool. Chad Ford of ESPN.com, his most recent Mock Draft, has us taking LSU's Anthony Randolph (whom I posted about before the draft lottery here). There have also been mock drafts projecting the Grizz take OJ Mayo. At the end of the day, the right pick is, at best, unclear. Lucky for us, the Grizzlies have a great history of selecting the right players in the draft . . . (thick sarcasm-filled silence). Lets take a look at recent drafting results of the Grizz: (please note, if you do not see spreadsheet table, go to VaticanSmoke.com. Email and RSS viewers might not get spreadsheet in view)



A few notes about the draft data:

• Of the players the Grizzlies drafted above, only the 3 most recent are still with the team. Even 2 of the 3 traded draft picks still have nothing currently represented on the team (Rudy Gay being the exception).






• The biggest story here are the names that the Grizzlies didn't draft. [Unless otherwise mentioned, I only reviewed the 10 picks after the Grizzlies' spot for draft success. These next 10 players were the only realistic/feasible alternatives for the Grizz. Some years, there were even more players in the later first or second rounds] David West instead of Marcus Banks? Amare Stoudemire instead of Drew Gooden? Tony Parker or Gilbert Arenas instead of Jamaal Tinsley? Shane Battier (yes, the beloved Shane) instead of Richard Jefferson? Tough misses. [Yes, Tinsley & Banks were traded - but look who we could have gotten]




• The most recent 3 picks are not "busts" yet. Hakim has made improvements in shooting and rebounding, while Mike Conley has shown promise in his 1 year. Lowry is the closest to a bust, but he is still quite young and capable of a backup point guard role. The term "bust" in regards to an NBA 1st Rounder, in my opinion, is a sliding scale depending on the draft spot. Top 10 draft pick needs to be a starter, spots 10 - 20 a starter or solid role player, and late 1st round just needs to be a role player and help the team. With only 2 rounds a year, there are not going to be many impact players drafted in a given year.






• 2003 was the year of "Lebron" , where the Grizzlies would lose their lottery pick via a trade agreement unless it was #1 overall. Cleveland won out the right to be in the playoffs the next 15 years by drafting Lebron, and Memphis getting the #2 pick meant nothing. Ironically, the Pistons selected Darko Milicic with that pick, and he is currently the Grizz's center. Now he is a bust, but for the Pistons and not (as much) the Grizz.




• The Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins deal to Boston for Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones was complete garbage. Not only considering the players we could have drafted, but losing a solid big body center like Kendrick Perkins makes it twice as foolish. Perkins is exactly what the Grizz still need - a big, youthful body in the middle to anchor a defense [Ironically enough, Kendrick Perkins committed to John Calipari's Tigers out of high school, before entering the NBA draft. Just like Amare Stoudemire, another Tiger commit that jumped straight to the NBA] . Perkins aside, using those picks to select David West and Josh Howard would have put the Grizz solidly in the playoffs last year, easily.






• The best move the Grizz have ever made was trading Shane Battier for Rudy Gay and Stromile Swift. Kudos for a move that is going to pay great dividends, with Rudy Gay now an emerging star and the face of our franchise.

Yes, I know, everyone can play the "Hindsight is 20/20 vision" game. But there is no doubting continued 1st round drafting success leads to playoff and championship caliber teams (i.e. San Antonio). There is also little doubt that continued 1st round drafting mistakes will keep a team in the lottery (i.e. Knicks, Grizzlies). The Grizz have certainly been in the later.

With a new GM (Chris Wallace, my boy) in charge, lets hope our history of botching draft day is changed.