Grizz Draft Update

There has been a lot of talk and rumors surrounding the top few draft picks in the NBA draft in about two weeks. Players are starting to work out individually with teams, so there are more people watching these guys and then speculating. Here is what has been going on regarding the Grizzlies pick at #5:

• Trade talk to move up to #2 with Miami for Michael Beasley. This has been rumored in numerous reports, such as here and here. All of the rumors and reports are based on the following expectations: a) The Heat don't really love Beasley and b) The Heat like OJ Mayo. They recognize Beasley is the value pick at #2, since they will likely miss out on their prize talent, Derrick Rose. They could look to draft Beasley and trade down, likely only if they can get OJ Mayo, whom many think would fit nicely with Dwayne Wade as a combo guard. The teams picking at #3 and #4 (Minnesota & Seattle) don't really have pieces to trade, however. The team at #5 does have some tradeable pieces, as well as a desperate need for a power forward like Beasley - the Grizzlies. Mike Miller and Javaris Crittenton or Kyle Lowery, along with swapping picks, has been one trade scenario. Genius Geoff Calkins even wrote about this scenario as if he thought it up. There is also talk from Iavaroni and Wallace that seems to indicate Mike Miller is not tradeable. My take is where there's smoke, there's fire. If there is a trade, we won't know until during the draft, once the Grizzlies pick comes available. The Heat don't do this deal unless they know OJ Mayo is available at #5. So for our best interest (whether we want him or not), the Grizz should root for the Timberwolves to draft Brook Lopez, and Seattle to draft Jerryed Bayless ahead of the Grizz, leaving OJ Mayo available at #5. A trade with Miami would be awesome for the Grizz, even if we lost Mike Miller and Lowry/Crittenton, because it would give us a young power forward that I think is special, in Michael Beasley.


• Kevin Love speculation. Kevin Love worked out for the Grizz on Monday of this week, and reportedly performed well. In the most recent mock draft on ESPN, our dream trade with Miami is foiled as OJ Mayo is selected to be drafted by Minnesota at #3, leaving the Grizz to draft Kevin Love at #5. Its very in vogue to hate on Kevin Love, because he is an undersized power forward that is not very athletic, and because Memphis beat him up pretty good in the final four. However, Love can shoot better than any big man in the draft in probably 4 or 5 years. He is young, apparently with a high basketball IQ that allows him to pass exceptionally well, and even play solid defense. That being said, I don't think it would excite too many Grizz fans to draft Love. Here is my revised order of who I would like to draft at #5, assuming that we are not going to trade the pick, and that Rose & Beasley are off the board:
  
  
  
  
  
  Obviously, the Grizz need a force at power forward that won't be there with Beasley gone. Next need for me is a dynamic scorer that can shoot and play opposite Rudy Gay. With Beasley gone, I think Mayo or Gordon could fulfill that role. Gordon tested out fantastically in Orlando at the Draft Camp on the physical skills/measurements [check out this link - its a sortable stat list based on all the measurements of draftees - height, weight, wingspan, 3/4 court sprint, vertical, etc - really interesting] , and lets not forget before his injury late in the season, he was considered a top 3 pick at worst. Gordon slid late in the year as things slid at Indiana, so I'm betting on him performing like he did early in the year and in high school. After those two, I think Kevin Love is the safest option. Why? He can shoot the 3, as well as the mid range jumper, which combined with his size, passing ability, and basketball IQ, could make him a very (very) poor man's Dirk Nowitzki. Not just because he is big and white, but I think he can create offense just by stretching the big men on defense, and then making well timed passes or shots. If we don't get Mayo, Gordon, Love, or (hopefully) Beasley in a trade, then I will be officially disappointed. This wish list has changed a bit since my first one, but that's because there is more information available to non-front office folk like myself.


• Heisley expressing doubt about the Pau trade. Many referenced this article in which Mike Heisley, team owner, expresses some doubt about whether the Gasol trade was the right move. Much has been written about his comments, and his later clarification. Wallace also defended the trade in the Boston Newspaper. The only thing you need to read is my previous post, detailing the trade, and calling for judgement on the merits of the trade at a later date. We'll see in a few years.


• Dorsey also looked good in the workout with Kevin Love, as mentioned in the article above(also linked here). Wouldn't that be fun for Memphians to get Joey Dorsey, assuming our draft board worked out to where he was not a reach with our pick at #28? He would give some good minutes in the paint off the bench, and could be a sparkplug-defender specialist (yes I just invented that term).

We'll see how the next week of workouts and speculation goes. Any trades won't occur until during the draft, once picks have been revealed. I think there may be a trade with Miami, but only if OJ Mayo is available for the Grizz to draft at #5. So if you are unsure what to root for in the upcoming draft in 2 weeks, root that OJ Mayo is available for either our team or a trade.

Laugh now . . .

When Pau Gasol left the Grizzlies this past February, many fans were excited beyond belief. While Pau was the team's best player, his European style of play and lack of a connection with the fans, caused him to receive the brunt of frustration by Memphis fans. The Grizzlies got seemingly little in return - and many think the deal was "highway robbery by the Lakers", and that Memphis is the "laughingstock of the league." But was the deal really that bad? Lets recap the deal: (note: if viewing this post via email or RSS feed, spreadsheet tables may not be viewable; click on blog link to view)

Kwame Brown really was just a warm body to complete the trade, as his $9M salary for 2008 was the last season on his contract, and he won't be re-signed. Aaron McKie was another expiring contract situation. All of this balancing has to occur as apart of NBA trade rules, relegating that trades must be near equal value. So the real trade was Pau for Crittenton, the two 1st round picks, the ability to use cap space, and none other than Pau's brother, Marc Gasol. Lets break down each piece:

• Javaris Crittenton was the #19 pick of the 2007 NBA Draft. During his one and only season at Georgia Tech as a freshman, he scored 15 points a game and had a solid season. Javaris is only 20 years old currently, and being a 6 foot 5 point guard, he definitely has some solid upside. He hit 20 points in a game twice for the Grizzlies, who played him quite a bit in March and especially April. The Grizzlies are still figuring out if Crittenton has the passing and defensive skills to be a solid NBA player, but the offense is definitely there. How he develops will be a big part of judging the deal.
  



• The 2 first round picks in 2008 and 2010 - The pick in 2008 is at #28 due to the Lakers having a top record in the league. That pick could net someone like Chris Douglas-Roberts, or possibly Joey Dorsey, both former Tigers that could be available at that spot, among others. If this pick nets someone who is on the team for 3 or more years, then the pick was a success. In 2010, we dont know where the pick will fall. If the Lakers are no good (unlikely), this could be a fantastic value if it were to fall within the top 10. What value we obtain from these picks must also be used to judge the balance of the trade.
  



• Cap Space - Many people were upset that Pau was traded for "nothing". Ideally we would have gotten an actual player that would help the team for a few years; however, people dont realize how tough it is to get rid of a deal the size of Pau's in the NBA given the salary structure. Unlike the NFL, you can't simply cut a player and not pay him in the NBA. Interesting column here from Memphis favorite Geoff Calkins, poking fun at the Cap space idea. But in reality, the trade of Pau Gasol cannot be judged until we sign a player with the vacated space. As I've posted about previously, there are a few free agents in 2008, but more in 2009. Luring a player to Memphis will take top dollar, however, as players won't to play for winners. Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, Elton Brand, and Shawn Marion are a few names over the next two summers that might spark interest. Whomever we sign with max $$ will be the most important decision the Grizzlies have ever made.



• Marc Gasol - What, another Gasol?!? Different Gasol though. This version is 7 Foot 1 inch, weighing in at 260 pounds - a much more physical and beefy version of his brother. The Grizzlies acquired his "draft rights", which the Lakers selected in the 2nd round of the 2007 NBA Draft. That means the Grizzlies have the right to negotiate and sign him, but at a cost. As Marc Gasol won the Spanish league MVP this past year, he has risen to be a candidate for the top overall player in Europe. Interesting article here about him, as well as another good one at Sporting News here, both very interesting. The skinny is that most think he is NBA ready right now, and that he would be a top 15 pick in this year's NBA draft if he hadn't already been drafted. He is known for having "very good upper body strength", yet "touch" on his shot and good post moves. Sounds appealing. If Marc comes over to the Grizz for the '08-'09 season, as many expect, and he performs as well as of the last few Spanish league MVPs to jump to the NBA (Luis Sciola, Juan Carlos Navarro, Andres Nocioni), the Grizz would be ecstatic. He would be a solid tandem with Darko at center. We still have a gaping hole at power forward, but you can never have too many centers that are at least decent.
  
  

The Grizzlies will net 4 players (Crittenton, 2 draft picks, Marc Gasol) plus whomever they sign with the cap space (1 or 2 people). So before everyone gets too excited about this deal being "the most lop sided in history", lets judge the deal based upon the 5 or 6 players that end up suiting up for the Grizz over the next few years because of the deal.

The Pope's prediction - Marc Gasol will be as good as his brother, but tougher and more likeable. The Lakers 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010 become solid performers for the Grizz. Javaris Crittenton is either cut or traded at some point in the next year. As for whom we might sign, my best guess would be Shawn Marion or Elton Brand, but thats really tough to predict. If we sign either of those, and my predictions hold true, how about a starting lineup/backup depth chart like this?

Plenty of fun assumptions made for that depth chart, certainly. But would anyone be able to say that our team isn't better off with this depth chart, than with this?

Grizzlies Update - Roundtable with the Pope

The Pope has been doing more Holy things than blogging about the Memphis Grizzlies.However, the Pope recently had an opportunity to have a roundtable with a few Grizzlies insiders. Check it out:

THE POPE >> Thank you all for coming and being in my prescence to discuss the Memphis Grizzlies.

Jerry West, Chris Wallace, Pau Gasol, and Michael Heisley >> Thank you, your eminence (all together)

THE POPE >> Well, first thing is first. Who can explain the team's 10-27 start, the 4th worst record in the league.

ALL >> (silence)

THE POPE >> Well, since no one will step up, I will ask the owner of the team, Michael Heisley. Why the bad start?

Mike Heisley >> I cant figure it out. We have the premier player in the NBA in Pau Gusole, is that how you say his name? Gausel? Whatever his name is. He's so good in the paint that we aren't trading him unless Kobe or Lebron is involved in the deal.

THE POPE >> I doubt the player's name is Gusole or Gausel, and I also doubt that he is very good if you cannot even properly pronounce his name. Your team has other problems as well obviously.

Mike Heisley >> I'm still not trading him.

THE POPE >> Ok, moving along. Jerry West, do you have any thoughts to add?

Jerry West >> I tried to trade Pau Gasol about 20 times in my last two years in Memphis. There were some deals with Chicago nearly done, as well as some deals with the Clippers. Heck, I even had him traded back to Spain for two gallons of Sangria, but Heisley pulled the plug on every deal . . .

Pau Gasol >> Hayyyyyy, thats not fai . . .

Jerry West >> Pau, shut your mouth and sit down! Your eminence, Pau is a big part of the problem, but he's not the only reason.

THE POPE >> What other reasons are there Jerry?

Jerry West >> Brian Cardinal is a premier player in this league, but he hasnt played like it yet in the last 3 years. I know he is though. And we miss Eddie Jones, another premier player in the league.

THE POPE >> I haven't heard of either of them, so again, I doubt they are that good Mr. West. I assume you didnt sign either of these players to long term deals if they are no good?

Jerry West >> (silence) . . . Dont you think thats a bit like answering the question, "When did you stop beating your wife?" ?

THE POPE >> Perhaps. I think you have answered the question already though. Now, on to the current GM, Chris Wallace. Please shed some light on the subject of the Grizzlies.

Chris Wallace >> Mr. West, is it ok if I speak? (wispered) . . . ok . . . Your eminence, I think the move that Jerr . . .err, I mean I made to sign Darko Milicic is a big reason why this team is headed in the right direction.

THE POPE >> Right Direction? Mr. Wallace, is Hell a destination that you would consider "right"?

Chris Wallace >> HAHAHAHHA, good one your eminence. Uh, em, I think that the Grizzlies are getting better with Rudy Gay leading our team in scoring at 19 points per game.

THE POPE >> Im sure this Gay player is fantastic and happy likely. But is 2-8 in your last 10 games really getting better? Why can't someone simply answer my initial question, Why the bad start? Maybe I should just ask the three random Grizz fans I have waiting outside in the corridor.

Wallace, West, Gasol, Heisley >> NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE POPE >> Send the three fans in.

(3 fans enter the room)

THE POPE >> I have brought you each here to answer the question, why has the Memphis Grizzlies gotten off to such a bad start this season?

Fan #1 >> Pau sucks

Fan #2 >> Pau sucks

Fan #3 >> Pau sucks

Pau Gasol >> HaAYYY!!! I bust by butt for you guys . . .

Jerry West >> Shut up Pau, they're right.


Well, there you have it folks.

There are numerous things wrong with the Grizzlies. I think Pau is a factor certainly. He is fine offensively, but his defense is absolutely killing this team on the interior. He just doesn't work in the Iavaroni (or Calipari) style of basketball. Brian Cardinal may have been the worst signing in the history of the NBA. Milicic is not rebounding like we had hoped, only averaging 6 per game despite his 7 foot frame. Rudy Gay and Mike Miller are this team, but with only one player playing decent defense, averaging 100 per game means nothing, cuz we are averaging giving up 104.

Lets hope in the second half, that we can trade Pau, and Darko can improve, along with all our young guys (Lowry, Conley Jr., Gay, Hakim Warrick). If we can somehow get to 30 wins for the season (essentially going .500 the rest of the way) it would be a miracle. Im predicting 25-57 record, bettering last years by 3 games (>10%).