Draft Day

"And now, with the 5th pick in the NBA Draft . . . there has been a trade. The Memphis Grizzlies have traded the 5th pick, along with Mike Miller and Kyle Lowery, to the Miami Heat for the rights to Michael Beasley"

How awesome would that be? More tomorrow once we process what actually went down.

Grizz Draft Update

There has been a lot of talk and rumors surrounding the top few draft picks in the NBA draft in about two weeks. Players are starting to work out individually with teams, so there are more people watching these guys and then speculating. Here is what has been going on regarding the Grizzlies pick at #5:

• Trade talk to move up to #2 with Miami for Michael Beasley. This has been rumored in numerous reports, such as here and here. All of the rumors and reports are based on the following expectations: a) The Heat don't really love Beasley and b) The Heat like OJ Mayo. They recognize Beasley is the value pick at #2, since they will likely miss out on their prize talent, Derrick Rose. They could look to draft Beasley and trade down, likely only if they can get OJ Mayo, whom many think would fit nicely with Dwayne Wade as a combo guard. The teams picking at #3 and #4 (Minnesota & Seattle) don't really have pieces to trade, however. The team at #5 does have some tradeable pieces, as well as a desperate need for a power forward like Beasley - the Grizzlies. Mike Miller and Javaris Crittenton or Kyle Lowery, along with swapping picks, has been one trade scenario. Genius Geoff Calkins even wrote about this scenario as if he thought it up. There is also talk from Iavaroni and Wallace that seems to indicate Mike Miller is not tradeable. My take is where there's smoke, there's fire. If there is a trade, we won't know until during the draft, once the Grizzlies pick comes available. The Heat don't do this deal unless they know OJ Mayo is available at #5. So for our best interest (whether we want him or not), the Grizz should root for the Timberwolves to draft Brook Lopez, and Seattle to draft Jerryed Bayless ahead of the Grizz, leaving OJ Mayo available at #5. A trade with Miami would be awesome for the Grizz, even if we lost Mike Miller and Lowry/Crittenton, because it would give us a young power forward that I think is special, in Michael Beasley.


• Kevin Love speculation. Kevin Love worked out for the Grizz on Monday of this week, and reportedly performed well. In the most recent mock draft on ESPN, our dream trade with Miami is foiled as OJ Mayo is selected to be drafted by Minnesota at #3, leaving the Grizz to draft Kevin Love at #5. Its very in vogue to hate on Kevin Love, because he is an undersized power forward that is not very athletic, and because Memphis beat him up pretty good in the final four. However, Love can shoot better than any big man in the draft in probably 4 or 5 years. He is young, apparently with a high basketball IQ that allows him to pass exceptionally well, and even play solid defense. That being said, I don't think it would excite too many Grizz fans to draft Love. Here is my revised order of who I would like to draft at #5, assuming that we are not going to trade the pick, and that Rose & Beasley are off the board:
  
  
  
  
  
  Obviously, the Grizz need a force at power forward that won't be there with Beasley gone. Next need for me is a dynamic scorer that can shoot and play opposite Rudy Gay. With Beasley gone, I think Mayo or Gordon could fulfill that role. Gordon tested out fantastically in Orlando at the Draft Camp on the physical skills/measurements [check out this link - its a sortable stat list based on all the measurements of draftees - height, weight, wingspan, 3/4 court sprint, vertical, etc - really interesting] , and lets not forget before his injury late in the season, he was considered a top 3 pick at worst. Gordon slid late in the year as things slid at Indiana, so I'm betting on him performing like he did early in the year and in high school. After those two, I think Kevin Love is the safest option. Why? He can shoot the 3, as well as the mid range jumper, which combined with his size, passing ability, and basketball IQ, could make him a very (very) poor man's Dirk Nowitzki. Not just because he is big and white, but I think he can create offense just by stretching the big men on defense, and then making well timed passes or shots. If we don't get Mayo, Gordon, Love, or (hopefully) Beasley in a trade, then I will be officially disappointed. This wish list has changed a bit since my first one, but that's because there is more information available to non-front office folk like myself.


• Heisley expressing doubt about the Pau trade. Many referenced this article in which Mike Heisley, team owner, expresses some doubt about whether the Gasol trade was the right move. Much has been written about his comments, and his later clarification. Wallace also defended the trade in the Boston Newspaper. The only thing you need to read is my previous post, detailing the trade, and calling for judgement on the merits of the trade at a later date. We'll see in a few years.


• Dorsey also looked good in the workout with Kevin Love, as mentioned in the article above(also linked here). Wouldn't that be fun for Memphians to get Joey Dorsey, assuming our draft board worked out to where he was not a reach with our pick at #28? He would give some good minutes in the paint off the bench, and could be a sparkplug-defender specialist (yes I just invented that term).

We'll see how the next week of workouts and speculation goes. Any trades won't occur until during the draft, once picks have been revealed. I think there may be a trade with Miami, but only if OJ Mayo is available for the Grizz to draft at #5. So if you are unsure what to root for in the upcoming draft in 2 weeks, root that OJ Mayo is available for either our team or a trade.

Memphis Grizzlies Post Season Plan

The Memphis Grizzlies finished another year with a record of 22-60, a 1 game decline from the prior year. There are some young pieces in place on offense, but this team needs development, direction, and more talent. With the departure of Pau Gasol, a large amount of cap space to work with, and two first round picks (including a likely top 5 pick), there will be lots to do this offseason for the Grizz. Thats not even mentioning the issues of a potential change in ownership at some point, or the huge decline in attendence.

Here are the Pope's key objectives for the Grizz this offseason, ranked in order of priority:

1. Draft Pick - The Grizz will have the 4th most balls in the lottery, behind Miami (15 wins), Seattle (20 wins), and Minnesota (22 wins). The worst pick the Grizzlies could get would be the #7 pick, based on how the lottery works (click here for those details). Obviously the Grizzlies must hit a home run with this pick. They need impact players everywhere, but particularly on the interior. Here are the top 5 prospects that the Pope would recommend for the Grizzlies, regardless of draft spot obtained:

1. Michael Beasley - Tough, athletic, muscular, productive on both ends of the floor, and left handed. Look for him to improve (he is 19) and become a cross between Carmelo Anthony and Carlos Boozer.

2. Derrick Rose - As a Memphis fan, I love this kid. Strong, tall, athletic, and a potential top 5 point guard in the league. I think we lose considerable value if we take him overall at #1, because we have so many point guards already and would have to make under market value trades to fix our depth chart.
3. Anthony Randolph, LSU - The first surprise of the of the Pope's rankings. This kid plays defense. Athletic, tall, and very young, this guy can block shots and rebound. Close call with OJ Mayo, but more upside and particulary defensive upside.
4. OJ Mayo, USC - Would be a decent wing combination with Rudy Gay. Can slash and shoot a little bit, although college year was just solid not great. More upside though with size and shooting ability than all below him in my rankings.

5. Brook Lopez, Stanford - Dont think this guy can be an All Star, but can be a productive and solid center for 10 years in the league. And no, its not a 2 for 1 deal where you get his twin brother also.

If we could get one of the top 2, I would be extremely excited. If we get Rudolph, I would be happy. If we get Mayo, I would be unsure. If we get Lopez, I would mostly satisfied. No matter who the Grizz draft, they better not miss.

2. Defense - The Grizzlies avereaged 107 points given up per game. On offense, they averaged 101 points. Certainly the offensive numbers are skewed based on how many points we gave up, and the high number of blowout games in which the Grizz played. But in reality the Grizz are much closer on the offensive end to success than they are defensively. Realistically, the Grizz are going to have to hold their opponents to 10 points less per game to make any type of noise in the Western Conference. Doing that will be near impossible, but knocking down that average at least 5 points or more should be the top priority besides the draft pick this offseason. How? We need to stress defense in player development, and obtain a couple of veterans that are defensive specialists. Not easy to find, but some suggestions are below.

3. Salary Cap - Who was that player we traded Pau Gasol for? We dont know yet. Depends on how we spend the cap room we now how due to Pau's departure. Here is a good analysis of the free agents this summer. There are only two teams this summer - the Grizzlies and the 76ers - that could handle a top tier free agent under the cap. Thats good for us. However, to get a top free agent to come to Memphis, we are going to have to pay above market value. Whomever we sign will be one of the defining decisions of this team. I listed it as #3 because supposedly there is a decent 2009 free agent crop, and this priority may not be addressed until next summer. My breakdown of notable 2008 Free Agents:

Would be Awesome, but Very Unlikey (all of these guys have contracts for 1 more year, but have an Early Termination Option for this summer; yet they are likely to remain in their current contract until becoming unrestricted free agents in 2009):
Allen Iverson
Jermaine O'Neal
Ron Artest
Elton Brand
Gilbert Arenas

Instant Offense but no Defense:
Antawn Jamison

Probably Cheap Veterans that Play Interior Defense:
PJ Brown
Dikembe Mutumbo
Eduardo Najera
Kurt Thomas


Pope's Recommendation: Najera & Kurt Thomas, and wait for 2009 for a big name

If the Grizz could persuade Elton Brand out of his contact, I would be in favor of paying him max $$, but its unlikely. Will be interesting to see what the Grizz do.

4. Point Guard Situation - This situation is currently
muddled and in need of repair, as the Grizz have 3 point guards (Mike Conley, Kyle Lowery, and Javaris Crittenton). If the Grizz get the #2 pick and somehow get Derrick Rose, then things turn really muddy. The only downside to taking an amazing talent like Derrick Rose is that we will be forced to trade Mike Conley at likely below market value. That will be a tough decision. But even if the Grizz dont get Derrick Rose, something needs to happen at this position. It sounds like Conley is the man, and Lowry and Crittendon will battle it out this summer for the backup spot. The third guy will be traded, waived, or benched, depending.

5. Mike Miller - He has been a solid SG, leader, and team player for this team for some time. He plays hard and gives 100% all the time, earning him a lot of fans in Memphis. But I think its time we get some value via trade for this aging star. Watching Mike Miller this year, I saw a 28 year old that moved around like he was 35. I love Mike, but think its time to get some value out of him before his slide downward occurs and we get nothing in return but an oft-injured veteran. Mike is not an oft-injured player yet, but Im predicting that he will act like your friends American SUV - its really cool for the first 5 years, but then two transmission overhauls, new tires, and new brakes are going to be your costs in year 6. Sell before that.

The Grizz need a major overhaul to not only compete next year, but also to keep fans remotely interested. Apathy is the worst disease that your fans can have, and that is certainly becoming the case in Memphis.

The Pope's Suggested Dream Answer: Draft Michael Beasley, sign Kurt Thomas and/or Najera, trade Kyle Lowery for a veteran defender, and then wait for a 2009 free agent like Elton Brand (who has an option to terminate in 2008 also) with even more $$ available under the cap room.