NBA Draft: 8 days & counting . . .

The NBA Draft approaches next Thursday, June 26th. Players have pulled out of the draft and the field is now set. What will the Grizz do with the 5th and 28th picks? Here is a plan and simple layout of what to look for.

In a previous post, I discussed how a trade to Miami for Beasley is a possibility, but seemingly only if we can draft OJ Mayo at #5. Word out of Miami is that OJ Mayo is who they really want, and they would be interested in trading with whomever drafts him. Miami knows Beasley is the 2nd most coveted player in the draft, and thus not drafting him at their #2 spot would be leaving value on the table. The ideal scenario for the Grizz is to have OJ Mayo available at #5.

It looks more and more like Minnesota, who picks at #3, will take Mayo, at least according to Chad Ford's new mock draft 5.0. Yes, there has been chatter about Minnesota GM Kevin McHale loving his tall white brethren Kevin Love. I think the Love to Minnesota talk is a smokescreen, and Minnesota will take Mayo. Most of the opinions coming out at this point are intentional leaks intended to manipulate trades in some form or fashion. Additionally I think its clear that Mayo is the #3 player in the draft, and that Minnesota will take the best player available rather than filling a more pressing need.

So lets simplify the draft - we assume Rose and Beasley are going #1 and #2. Then we are assuming, although hoping not, that OJ Mayo is selected at #3 by the Timberwolves. Seattle at #4 has been eying Bayless as they need a PG desperately, so there really hasn't been much talk about whom they will pick. That leaves the Grizz at #5. Here are really the only logical options:

• Kevin Love (UCLA)


• Eric Gordon (Indiana)


• Danilo Gallinari (Italy) - pictured
  
• Anthony Randolph (LSU)
  
• Brook Lopez (Stanford)

You can read profiles on these players in Ford's mock draft, and I'm certainly no scout. Ive also linked all the players above and below to their draft profile on NBA Draft net.

At the Grizzlies second 1st round pick (at #28), here are some players that have been mentioned. I'm sure there are plenty of other names out there, as its hard to predict who will be on the board at #28, unlike #5:

• Courtney Lee (Western Kentucky)


• Bill Walker (Kansas State) (note - coming off knee injury)


• Chris Douglas Roberts (Memphis)
  
• Joey Dorsey (Memphis)
  
• DJ White (Indiana)
  
• JJ Hickson (NC State) (pictured)
  

The Grizzlies have two major needs in my opinion, and they are both equally important:

1. Perimeter guard/small forward player that can defend, and be an offensive threat to take some pressure off Rudy Gay.


2. Interior toughness, aka rebounding and defense. Any offense down low is a bonus.

Now lets play GM. One key ingredient to picking at #5 is knowing what you can get with your later picks. Why pick a PF if there are many that will be available later, with minimal dropoff? Simple supply and demand. Rating all the players in the draft, to assess all of your picks from one vantage point, is the key to a balanced draft. So we've seen the available players and the team needs. Now lets try to envision draft scenarios for the Grizz, while trying to assess the dropoff from whats available at #5 to #28 (again, assuming Mayo is gone):

Scenario 1 - Draft Kevin Love at #5, then get a perimeter guy at #28, either Courtney Lee or CDR.

Scenario 2 - Draft Eric Gordon at #5, then DJ White, Hickson, or Dorsey at #28.

Scenario 3 - Draft Brook Lopez at #5, then the best of the PFs in scenario #2 available at #28

Which scenario is more likely? Hard to say. I think Kevin Love is the likely pick for the Grizz at #5, based on the early and continued buzz. However, I don't think perimeter players Lee or CDR will be available for the Grizz at #28, really forcing the Grizz to draft another power forward. Given that wing and perimeter impact players are not going to be available come the 2nd pick, I think we must address the perimeter need at #5 then get one of many decent power forwards that will be available at #28.

To me, its simple - the value of perimeter help is higher in this year's draft, due to the scarcity of perimeter impact players and the abundance of power forward and center help.

Given the cards the Grizz have, with Mayo gone at #3 and perimeter help being scarce late in the 1st round, I would draft Eric Gordon at #5, and DJ White at #28. Gordon is a great athlete that can drive and shoot, while DJ White epitomizes toughness in the middle. Both have much to prove, but I think they would be hungry to work hard in Memphis. There are plenty of Hoosier fans that would enjoy that as well.

Chris Wallace is a smart guy, and he has done this many times before. Certainly things are not as simple as I propose. In the NFL, where every team has multiple picks, finding value in each round is the name of the game. Hopefully the Grizz will do the same, really figuring out what they can pick at #28 before they decide on whom to pick at #5.

Grizz Draft Update

There has been a lot of talk and rumors surrounding the top few draft picks in the NBA draft in about two weeks. Players are starting to work out individually with teams, so there are more people watching these guys and then speculating. Here is what has been going on regarding the Grizzlies pick at #5:

• Trade talk to move up to #2 with Miami for Michael Beasley. This has been rumored in numerous reports, such as here and here. All of the rumors and reports are based on the following expectations: a) The Heat don't really love Beasley and b) The Heat like OJ Mayo. They recognize Beasley is the value pick at #2, since they will likely miss out on their prize talent, Derrick Rose. They could look to draft Beasley and trade down, likely only if they can get OJ Mayo, whom many think would fit nicely with Dwayne Wade as a combo guard. The teams picking at #3 and #4 (Minnesota & Seattle) don't really have pieces to trade, however. The team at #5 does have some tradeable pieces, as well as a desperate need for a power forward like Beasley - the Grizzlies. Mike Miller and Javaris Crittenton or Kyle Lowery, along with swapping picks, has been one trade scenario. Genius Geoff Calkins even wrote about this scenario as if he thought it up. There is also talk from Iavaroni and Wallace that seems to indicate Mike Miller is not tradeable. My take is where there's smoke, there's fire. If there is a trade, we won't know until during the draft, once the Grizzlies pick comes available. The Heat don't do this deal unless they know OJ Mayo is available at #5. So for our best interest (whether we want him or not), the Grizz should root for the Timberwolves to draft Brook Lopez, and Seattle to draft Jerryed Bayless ahead of the Grizz, leaving OJ Mayo available at #5. A trade with Miami would be awesome for the Grizz, even if we lost Mike Miller and Lowry/Crittenton, because it would give us a young power forward that I think is special, in Michael Beasley.


• Kevin Love speculation. Kevin Love worked out for the Grizz on Monday of this week, and reportedly performed well. In the most recent mock draft on ESPN, our dream trade with Miami is foiled as OJ Mayo is selected to be drafted by Minnesota at #3, leaving the Grizz to draft Kevin Love at #5. Its very in vogue to hate on Kevin Love, because he is an undersized power forward that is not very athletic, and because Memphis beat him up pretty good in the final four. However, Love can shoot better than any big man in the draft in probably 4 or 5 years. He is young, apparently with a high basketball IQ that allows him to pass exceptionally well, and even play solid defense. That being said, I don't think it would excite too many Grizz fans to draft Love. Here is my revised order of who I would like to draft at #5, assuming that we are not going to trade the pick, and that Rose & Beasley are off the board:
  
  
  
  
  
  Obviously, the Grizz need a force at power forward that won't be there with Beasley gone. Next need for me is a dynamic scorer that can shoot and play opposite Rudy Gay. With Beasley gone, I think Mayo or Gordon could fulfill that role. Gordon tested out fantastically in Orlando at the Draft Camp on the physical skills/measurements [check out this link - its a sortable stat list based on all the measurements of draftees - height, weight, wingspan, 3/4 court sprint, vertical, etc - really interesting] , and lets not forget before his injury late in the season, he was considered a top 3 pick at worst. Gordon slid late in the year as things slid at Indiana, so I'm betting on him performing like he did early in the year and in high school. After those two, I think Kevin Love is the safest option. Why? He can shoot the 3, as well as the mid range jumper, which combined with his size, passing ability, and basketball IQ, could make him a very (very) poor man's Dirk Nowitzki. Not just because he is big and white, but I think he can create offense just by stretching the big men on defense, and then making well timed passes or shots. If we don't get Mayo, Gordon, Love, or (hopefully) Beasley in a trade, then I will be officially disappointed. This wish list has changed a bit since my first one, but that's because there is more information available to non-front office folk like myself.


• Heisley expressing doubt about the Pau trade. Many referenced this article in which Mike Heisley, team owner, expresses some doubt about whether the Gasol trade was the right move. Much has been written about his comments, and his later clarification. Wallace also defended the trade in the Boston Newspaper. The only thing you need to read is my previous post, detailing the trade, and calling for judgement on the merits of the trade at a later date. We'll see in a few years.


• Dorsey also looked good in the workout with Kevin Love, as mentioned in the article above(also linked here). Wouldn't that be fun for Memphians to get Joey Dorsey, assuming our draft board worked out to where he was not a reach with our pick at #28? He would give some good minutes in the paint off the bench, and could be a sparkplug-defender specialist (yes I just invented that term).

We'll see how the next week of workouts and speculation goes. Any trades won't occur until during the draft, once picks have been revealed. I think there may be a trade with Miami, but only if OJ Mayo is available for the Grizz to draft at #5. So if you are unsure what to root for in the upcoming draft in 2 weeks, root that OJ Mayo is available for either our team or a trade.