All Hands on Deck

It has taken 48 hours for my heart to return to a normal rhythm after the near disaster Saturday in Baltimore. After controlling the game and dominating for 55 minutes, the Irish - including many walk ons and second teamers who played most of the last 5 minutes - had a sloppy finish that almost cost them the game. Most of you watched the ending, so I will not recount what happened. In short - the Irish 2nd team offense fumbled on the goal line, which then prompted a long Navy touchdown, followed by 2 on side kick recoveries and a touchdown sandwiched in between. Navy had the ball with a minute to go and a chance to score a game winning touchdown, but thankfully failed.

This game is your perfect "glass half full or half empty" or "Jekyl and Hyde" or whatever other cliche you wish to describe contrasting good and bad performance by the Irish. Here is your bullet style attack from the Vatican:

Good Irish . . .

• Irish rushing attack racked up 230 yards against a solid Navy rush defense (previously 30th nationally, giving up an average of 116 yards per game). I realize this was Navy and this should happen, but it was nice to see the Irish pound Navy with success throughout the game (and outrush the #2 rushing attack in the country). All 4 Irish backs had their moments, as James Aldridge, Robert Hughes, Armando Allen, and even freshman Jonas Gray all got in the action. A solid effort by the backs and especially the offensive line. Hopefully this will build confidence in the rushing game.



• 2nd Half Offensive Adjustments - A credit to Weis and his playcalling for simplifying the 2nd half gameplan, using only swing passes, screen passes, and the running game. Why throw forward passes when Navy's defensive backs were giving a 10 yard cushion, their safeties playing deep zone coverage, and the linebackers played the short zone? Navy was doing what most teams have done against the Irish in the 2nd half of the season - make them win via the short stuff, not the quick strike deep passes that the Irish feasted on against early opponents. Take what they give you, and don't try to force passes into triple zone coverage (Ahem, Jimmy).



• Irish defense held Navy to 120 yards less than their rushing average. Other than the 2nd teamers in the last few minutes, the Irish defense once again had a fantastic effort, forcing Navy to punt 8 times. Navy's option attack never got going in the game, despite what the score may indicate. The Irish held Navy to 7 points through 58 minutes, and even some late fluke touchdowns cannot erase the efforts of the Irish defense. Kudos.



• Irish Punt teams - The Irish blocked a punt early and scored a touchdown when Mike Anello broke through the line and made the block. This was clearly the play of the 1st half, and a play that let ND take a sigh of relief while the offense wasn't yet clicking. On the 3 punts that the Irish made to the Middies, Navy only was able to return 1 of them for a loss of 1 yard. A solid day's work on both sides of the punt coverage.

Bad Irish . . .

• 5 Turnovers - Nothing more needs to be said. 2 interceptions, 3 fumbles, versus only 1 Navy turnover. For the season on the road, the Irish turnover margin is something like 20 to 1. I am pretty sure the road game turnover margin was 15-0 against the Irish when the game began, but no matter what the specifics, its a sad picture. You simply cannot turn the ball over that many times on the road and win football games. The Irish better get this part together, otherwise USC will beat us by 50.



• Clausen's passing performance - awful. He continues to throw passes into the zone coverage most teams are playing against the Irish. Defenses know that ND's best attack has been the deep pass, and so defending this pass has been priority #1 the past few weeks as Pitt, BC, and Navy have all displayed a similar strategy. When there are 7 men in zone pass coverage, there are only going to be so many holes. Clausen must take what the defense gives him - even if he is throwing the short swing passes to Armando on every play. The only way to get the defense out of those coverages is to beat them to death on the short passes and the running game. Take the 5 yards per pass and move on, and stop forcing passes into triple coverage.



• Brian Smith and Michael Floyd injuries - Unfortunately, two of our brightest young stars will be out up to 4 weeks, missing the Syracuse and USC games. Both were taken out early in the Navy game, both with knee strains. Navy likes to chop block and they did this on Smith, while Floyd was the victim of someone falling on his knee. Its going to be that much more difficult to have a respectable showing at USC with these guys out.



• Hands team is fired. The two onside kicks that Navy recovered were awful displays of how to attempt to receive an onsides kick. The unit looked tenative, scared, and worst of all, very poorly coached. The front line of a hands team always blocks the oncoming kicking team, while the 2nd line gets the ball. ND's front line stood there, not blocking or grabbing the ball, and the result was a Naval assault that Douglas MacArthur would have been proud of. On the very first Navy onside kick, Irish hands teamer Robby Parrish batted the ball out of bounds. He smiled and was excited - clearly not knowing he had committed a penalty of "batting". The fact that the hands team did not know about this rule was evidence to poor coaching for this extremely important play. This may be the only time this season where the Irish need to use their hands team, and it was almost a fatal performance.

As for my 4 game predictions, 3 of them were decently close while 1 was way off. Clausen did not pass for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, but less than half of that plus 2 interceptions. The Irish defense and rushing attack both did significantly better than I expected, a great performance for each. I picked the score to be 31-21 Irish, and I was just 4 points total off the exact score. Certainly I didn't expect Navy to score 14 points in 30 seconds late in the game, but the prediction was close. My season prediction record in Irish games is 7-3 straight up, 6-4 when predicting who covers the point spread.

This week the Irish need to get healthy, and pound hapless Syracuse this weekend. Playing well against USC is priority #1b right now, even with beating Syracuse this week being at the forefront. Hopefully the Irish can start gameplanning now for the USC game, without short changing the Syracuse game preparation.

Sink or Sail

Notre Dame vs Navy

11:00am CST, Saturday, CBS National Coverage

(from Baltimore, MD)

The Irish play the trickiest game on the schedule this Saturday as they take on the Midshipmen of Navy. Last year's loss to Navy was the one that broke the streak of 43 straight wins, a stinging loss that sank the Irish to the lowest of lows.

The story is the same every year Notre Dame plays Navy - the talented, widely recruited bunch plays the little recruited, hard working chain gang. The Navy squad always has a built in way of getting fired up when they play Notre Dame - no one thinks they are as good or talented as the Irish. Typically Navy also plays with an additional chip on their shoulder - revenge. But not this year, as Navy looks to start a 2 game winning streak against the Irish for the first time since the days of Roger Staubach.

Just because Notre Dame has lost two tough games, has a sputtering offense, and lost to Navy last year, does not preclude the Irish from doing what they are expected to do against Navy this year and every year they play until the end of time - win comfortably. Here are the reasons why Notre Dame will win this football game comfortably:

• The Irish defense is up to the task - I will keep saying it as long as someone listens, but this is the best Notre Dame defense in some time. They do not give up the big play, and have no glaring weakness. Run defense is their weakness, but the Irish still are respectable against the run (53rd in the country, 132 yards per game). Jon Tenuta is the X factor for the Irish defense. I would be surprised if his blitzes do not seriously disrupt the Navy rushing attack, possibly causing some bad QB pitches or fumbles.




• It took a game of epic proportions for Navy to beat the worst Irish team in 40 years. Lets not forget that last year's game was a 3 overtime victory for Navy, a game in which the Irish passed on a 41 yard field goal to win the game as time expired. The Irish also gave Navy 7 points late in the second half on a costly Evan Sharpely fumble, and blew some chances in overtime to win the game. The point is that the Irish should have won the game last year, and were likely the better team. Navy is not just going to start winning games regularly in this series - so long as we respect them as an opponent and take care of business.




• The Irish have not punted against Navy in 3 years . . . let that one sink in. The Irish offense has not punted against Navy in 3 years. What makes anyone think the Irish will not have some modicum of success offensively on Saturday? Last year's awful offense scored 44 points in the 3 overtime game. The Irish should move the ball, and hopefully they will gain confidence early and get out of the offensive funk they have been in.

The tone of this post might convey arrogance or denial that Notre Dame could ever lose to Navy again. We certainly can lose to Navy, who is well coached and shortens games with its ball control offense. But the only way Navy beats Notre Dame is if the Irish players and coaches over look the middies - if we take them lightly. If we respect what they do, modify our game plan to counter their distinctive style, and avoid ridiculous mistakes, we win this game 9 times out of 10. Prediction time:

• Prediction 1 - The Irish defense will hold the Navy rushing attack to a 240 yard day - a good day for most teams, but 60 yards below the #2 rushing attack's average. I think ND getting a lead early will force some more passes, but otherwise the Irish defense would hold Navy to their average of 300 yards.



• Prediction 2 - The Irish rushing attack finds some success, rushing for 135 yards. Navy's rush defense is one of the best its had in some time (30th nationally, 116 yards per game), but the Irish find a way to move the ball from some spread formations with Armando Allen.



• Prediction 3 - Jimmy Clausen throws for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has a solid day, not turning the ball over at all. Late in the game the Irish focus on the rush game completely, so after a very fast and furious first half, Jimmy throws much less in the 2nd.

No, I am not predicting a Golden Tate punt or kickoff return this week. Mostly because the return units have played poorly, and Navy does not punt the ball as often as most teams. But I would be surprised if this season finishes without a "house call" on a punt or kickoff by Golden. He is that good.

Score prediction - Irish 31 Navy 21

The Irish get up early 14-0 on a turnover and a deep pass play, and cruise from there. The 10 point margin is closer than the game ever really was, as Weis runs the ball almost the entire second half. This team needs a confidence boost, and I think this game provides the springboard to finish the season strong.

[My record picking the Irish this season, straight up, is 6-3, as I predicted the Michigan St loss. My record against the spread is 5-4, as I wrongly predicted a cover in the Michigan St, Pitt, Stanford, and BC games]

More Weis Talk

Great article on Weis and his current status as ND coach over at the Blue Gray Sky. Definitely a good read. Their article hits on a lot of the same points as my post below - I'm not sure Weis is THE coach, but its too early to drop the hammer on him just yet. Positive signs exist, and in the coming weeks we will know more. And how could you not love a coach that can handle an AK when needed?


Check back tomorrow for a Navy game preview. The trickiest game of the year has become more frightening than ever - as its a do or die game for Weis and the Irish.

Gut Instincts

In the last few days, I have been asked a question about Charlie Weis and his future as the Notre Dame football coach no less than 10 times. I'm sure many of you have experienced the same fate. ESPN is circling above the wounded giant of ND football right now, with everyone from Colin Cowherd to Beano Cook all getting their shots in via nonstop coverage.

For those of you who want Charlie fired now, this is probably not your post. We all can love ND football, but have differences of opinion in how to make it great again. I am not certain - as I was a few years ago - that Charlie is the guy. But I am certain that its too soon to give up on Charlie, and the verdict is still out - albeit not by much.

To be fully balanced, I present the top 5 reasons to keep Charlie . . . followed by the top 5 reasons to fire him. You be the judge.

Keep Charlie because . . .

• Recruiting under Weis has been at a Holtz level. I know recruiting rankings are not perfect, but Weis has had 3 straight top 10 classes by nearly every publication. His best class yet - the #1 ranked (after Alabama did not get 6 kids into school, the Irish won the Rivals.com 2008 Recruiting Crown) 2008 class is already doing damage on the field (Kyle Rudolph, TE, Michael Floyd, WR, Ethan Johnson, DE, Robert Blanton, DB, just to name a few). The talent is coming in, but it takes more than a class or three to get a program to the top tier. Top programs recruit every single year, creating extreme competition at every position, which then results in depth and more improvement from hungry players looking to see the field.



• This team is finally playing defense. Pairing this defense with Brady Quinn teams migh have resulted in another win or two, or at least more respectable losses. Easily his best defensive performance since Weis has been head coach. Currently, through 9 games, the Irish defense ranks 39th in the country in yards (324 yard per game), 35th in the country in scoring defense (20.4), and 45th in pass defense (196 yards per game). While its not light years ahead of prior years, its certainly avoiding the big play and giving the Irish offense ample chance to win games. The most points the defense has allowed in regulation this season in 1 game is 24! points, against Pittsburgh (remember, UNC only scored 21 points against our defense). The defense is improving and is now a slightly above average unit capable of holding its own against most teams.



• The offense hasn't been as bad as you think. The Irish have outgained their opponents in 3 of their 4 losses, outgaining everyone but Michigan St. While the offense has stalled a bit lately, it is still moving the chains up the field. The problem has been turnovers!, which have a lot to do with the youth on the field. With 25 of 28 touchdowns this season being scored by freshman or sophomores, youth is bound to make some mistakes. Make no mistake, the Irish have played poorly offensively the past two games. And I will not even attempt to defend our woeful running attack. My point is that the turnovers have doomed the Irish more than anything else - not lack of offensive ability or production. 1 more positive offensive play against UNC or Pitt would likely have you thinking differently about the Irish offense long about now.



• Next year, this team will be good. Weis will have juniors and sophomores all over the depth chart, with a strong number of seniors as well. Throw in a freshman 5 star Running Back in Cierre Wood, as well as more developed Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, and you will see an offense that could challenge all the records Brady set. The schedule is once again favorable with 4 built in wins against (Nevada, Purdue, Washington State, Washington), 4 winnable games (Navy, Pitt, Connecticut, Stanford), and 4 tough games (USC, @ Michigan, Michigan Stl, and Boston College). 2009 is Charlie's Waterloo - 9 wins or he's gone. I think 10 is what most people would expect, but 9 wins in 2009 will be what it takes to keep his job.

Fire Charlie because . . .

• The talent on the defensive and offensive lines has not and is not there. The Irish rushing attack sits at 95th in the country, despite having multiple 4 star running backs with major college offers (Jonas Grey, Robert Hughes, Armando Allen, and James Aldridge). While none of these backs is Barry Sanders, there has not been consistent run blocking for them to find lanes. On defense, its not much better for the DLine. The Irish defense ranks 111th in the country in tackles for a loss, and 82nd in sacks. Certainly linebackers need to make plays also, but the defensive line is clearly the issue. No team without strong lines on both sides of the ball can even sniff being in the top tier of college football teams. Recruiting hasn't been great on the Dline in particular, and doesn't look to be much better next year either.



• Charlie Weis has lost his last 15 games against teams with a winning record at the end of the season. That barb hurts badly, as it should. The Irish are not beating any good teams, or even 7-5 type teams right now. Navy this weekend will give him the chance to break this streak, as Navy is 6-3 and likely will finish with at least 7 wins. But beating Navy won't get Charlie much more than a pat on the back. No matter what excuses can be made for 2007 or the BCS blowouts in 2005 and 2006, the proof is in the W/L record, and Charlie has just not gotten the job done against decent competition. A few more losses to add onto this streak and Charlie is fired, with cause (right Al Davis?).



• Bad situational football, particularly in the 2nd half. The 2nd half and overtime of the Pitt game was the worst I had seen an Irish team handle time pressure since Ty Willingham. The lack of adjustments in the 2nd half of the UNC and Michigan St game definitely played a roll in each loss. No matter what talent is there, a well coached team will show poise and solid execution down the stretch. That statement cannot be used to describe the Irish right now. There have not been ample opportunities to show poise late when the game is still on the line, but we have seen nothing to say the Irish can handle the pressure since 2006/2005 (the final offensive drives of the UCLA game in '06, and the USC and Stanford games in '05). Another loss that was mismanaged late like the Pitt game will be devastating for Weis.



• Embarrassment factor. Weis has endured more 30 pt losses (3) and shutouts (3) in his 4 years than any big program should ever have in a decade. Any more additions to these tallies quite simply will be fatal to Weis's tenure at ND. Fans cannot and should not tolerate this. Not much to add here.

No matter how many pro and con lists you make, I believe decisions and opinions have to come from your "gut" - or the brain's evolved decision making capacity. Sometimes you just know the answer, but you may not be able to explain it. Oftentimes that feeling is the result of your brain calculating and weighing all these pro's and con's and spitting out the answer.

My "gut" says that Charlie is going to finish his 10 year contract. I think we'll remember these tough losses and this tough time just like that night at the casino where you're entire stack of chips was down to one or two more hands of blackjack - but then you rallied back to win 10 times what you started with. The chips are low for the Irish football program right now, but this session is not over yet. Win a few more this season, and then next season we put all our chips in the middle and see what happens.

Audible

Coach Weis's Tuesday press conference was the most grim I can remember. You can view the media session at und.com, in the video tab, on the main page.

Typically the media focuses the questions on specific issues relating to Irish health, the upcoming opponent, or the gameplan offensively or defensively for the coming game. This session was much different. The most pointed question was (I summarize), 'What do you say to people who are not sure if you are right man for the job (as ND Coach)?'. Charlie replied (again I summarize, but make no doubts that this is accurate), 'Its about where your program is going, where will it be. I am confident in where we are going and I am confident that the program will get to where we all want it to be'.

Another question to Charlie was really a rhetorical one - something along the lines of, 'Coach, Notre Dame fans are very impatient; do you think some ND fans are overly impatient and overly upset right now?' Charlie responded with a very honest response: "I'd be perturbed too if I were them. I wouldn't be very happy with the way the Pittsburgh game ended, and I wouldn't be too excited about how the offense and special teams played (against Boston College). If you look at last week's game against Boston College and the previous week's game against Pittsburgh, you sit there and say, We're sitting there (5-4), why aren't we better than that?".

But in perhaps the biggest, most important news that came from the press conference, is that Charlie Weis is going to get back involved and start gameplanning and calling plays for the offense. If you remember, he gave up playcalling in the spring to his offensive coordinator, Mike Haywood. Charlie sees the offense as the major problem, and plans to get more directly involved in the process.


I see a much less confident and less cocky Charlie Weis today. That saddens me a bit, because part of the initial allure of Charlie was this confidence in his abilities. I think it has clear that he has realized that college football is more about motivation and recruiting than schematic advantages and gameplans, like the NFL.

Let me make this clear - I have not given up on Charlie. His recruiting has been fantastic, and is continuing to be in the nation's elite. And I think him returning to playcalling is the right move, provided that he ends up being somewhere in the middle on the spectrum of pure playcaller (like in 2005-2007) and pure headcoach (through 9 games this season). Playcalling and gameplanning has always been the "core competency" of Charlie Weis - put simply, it's what he does best. But being a headcoach requires leadership and responsibility over all facets of a football program - not just playcalling - but everything from punt formations to study hall.

So in short, we need Charlie to call plays AND be the head coach. And do them both well, while not letting up on recruiting one bit. Whether or not he can adjust and do all three - very quickly, as in, this week quickly - will determine how long he remains head coach.