Sink or Sail

Notre Dame vs Navy

11:00am CST, Saturday, CBS National Coverage

(from Baltimore, MD)

The Irish play the trickiest game on the schedule this Saturday as they take on the Midshipmen of Navy. Last year's loss to Navy was the one that broke the streak of 43 straight wins, a stinging loss that sank the Irish to the lowest of lows.

The story is the same every year Notre Dame plays Navy - the talented, widely recruited bunch plays the little recruited, hard working chain gang. The Navy squad always has a built in way of getting fired up when they play Notre Dame - no one thinks they are as good or talented as the Irish. Typically Navy also plays with an additional chip on their shoulder - revenge. But not this year, as Navy looks to start a 2 game winning streak against the Irish for the first time since the days of Roger Staubach.

Just because Notre Dame has lost two tough games, has a sputtering offense, and lost to Navy last year, does not preclude the Irish from doing what they are expected to do against Navy this year and every year they play until the end of time - win comfortably. Here are the reasons why Notre Dame will win this football game comfortably:

• The Irish defense is up to the task - I will keep saying it as long as someone listens, but this is the best Notre Dame defense in some time. They do not give up the big play, and have no glaring weakness. Run defense is their weakness, but the Irish still are respectable against the run (53rd in the country, 132 yards per game). Jon Tenuta is the X factor for the Irish defense. I would be surprised if his blitzes do not seriously disrupt the Navy rushing attack, possibly causing some bad QB pitches or fumbles.




• It took a game of epic proportions for Navy to beat the worst Irish team in 40 years. Lets not forget that last year's game was a 3 overtime victory for Navy, a game in which the Irish passed on a 41 yard field goal to win the game as time expired. The Irish also gave Navy 7 points late in the second half on a costly Evan Sharpely fumble, and blew some chances in overtime to win the game. The point is that the Irish should have won the game last year, and were likely the better team. Navy is not just going to start winning games regularly in this series - so long as we respect them as an opponent and take care of business.




• The Irish have not punted against Navy in 3 years . . . let that one sink in. The Irish offense has not punted against Navy in 3 years. What makes anyone think the Irish will not have some modicum of success offensively on Saturday? Last year's awful offense scored 44 points in the 3 overtime game. The Irish should move the ball, and hopefully they will gain confidence early and get out of the offensive funk they have been in.

The tone of this post might convey arrogance or denial that Notre Dame could ever lose to Navy again. We certainly can lose to Navy, who is well coached and shortens games with its ball control offense. But the only way Navy beats Notre Dame is if the Irish players and coaches over look the middies - if we take them lightly. If we respect what they do, modify our game plan to counter their distinctive style, and avoid ridiculous mistakes, we win this game 9 times out of 10. Prediction time:

• Prediction 1 - The Irish defense will hold the Navy rushing attack to a 240 yard day - a good day for most teams, but 60 yards below the #2 rushing attack's average. I think ND getting a lead early will force some more passes, but otherwise the Irish defense would hold Navy to their average of 300 yards.



• Prediction 2 - The Irish rushing attack finds some success, rushing for 135 yards. Navy's rush defense is one of the best its had in some time (30th nationally, 116 yards per game), but the Irish find a way to move the ball from some spread formations with Armando Allen.



• Prediction 3 - Jimmy Clausen throws for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has a solid day, not turning the ball over at all. Late in the game the Irish focus on the rush game completely, so after a very fast and furious first half, Jimmy throws much less in the 2nd.

No, I am not predicting a Golden Tate punt or kickoff return this week. Mostly because the return units have played poorly, and Navy does not punt the ball as often as most teams. But I would be surprised if this season finishes without a "house call" on a punt or kickoff by Golden. He is that good.

Score prediction - Irish 31 Navy 21

The Irish get up early 14-0 on a turnover and a deep pass play, and cruise from there. The 10 point margin is closer than the game ever really was, as Weis runs the ball almost the entire second half. This team needs a confidence boost, and I think this game provides the springboard to finish the season strong.

[My record picking the Irish this season, straight up, is 6-3, as I predicted the Michigan St loss. My record against the spread is 5-4, as I wrongly predicted a cover in the Michigan St, Pitt, Stanford, and BC games]