Gut Instincts

In the last few days, I have been asked a question about Charlie Weis and his future as the Notre Dame football coach no less than 10 times. I'm sure many of you have experienced the same fate. ESPN is circling above the wounded giant of ND football right now, with everyone from Colin Cowherd to Beano Cook all getting their shots in via nonstop coverage.

For those of you who want Charlie fired now, this is probably not your post. We all can love ND football, but have differences of opinion in how to make it great again. I am not certain - as I was a few years ago - that Charlie is the guy. But I am certain that its too soon to give up on Charlie, and the verdict is still out - albeit not by much.

To be fully balanced, I present the top 5 reasons to keep Charlie . . . followed by the top 5 reasons to fire him. You be the judge.

Keep Charlie because . . .

• Recruiting under Weis has been at a Holtz level. I know recruiting rankings are not perfect, but Weis has had 3 straight top 10 classes by nearly every publication. His best class yet - the #1 ranked (after Alabama did not get 6 kids into school, the Irish won the Rivals.com 2008 Recruiting Crown) 2008 class is already doing damage on the field (Kyle Rudolph, TE, Michael Floyd, WR, Ethan Johnson, DE, Robert Blanton, DB, just to name a few). The talent is coming in, but it takes more than a class or three to get a program to the top tier. Top programs recruit every single year, creating extreme competition at every position, which then results in depth and more improvement from hungry players looking to see the field.



• This team is finally playing defense. Pairing this defense with Brady Quinn teams migh have resulted in another win or two, or at least more respectable losses. Easily his best defensive performance since Weis has been head coach. Currently, through 9 games, the Irish defense ranks 39th in the country in yards (324 yard per game), 35th in the country in scoring defense (20.4), and 45th in pass defense (196 yards per game). While its not light years ahead of prior years, its certainly avoiding the big play and giving the Irish offense ample chance to win games. The most points the defense has allowed in regulation this season in 1 game is 24! points, against Pittsburgh (remember, UNC only scored 21 points against our defense). The defense is improving and is now a slightly above average unit capable of holding its own against most teams.



• The offense hasn't been as bad as you think. The Irish have outgained their opponents in 3 of their 4 losses, outgaining everyone but Michigan St. While the offense has stalled a bit lately, it is still moving the chains up the field. The problem has been turnovers!, which have a lot to do with the youth on the field. With 25 of 28 touchdowns this season being scored by freshman or sophomores, youth is bound to make some mistakes. Make no mistake, the Irish have played poorly offensively the past two games. And I will not even attempt to defend our woeful running attack. My point is that the turnovers have doomed the Irish more than anything else - not lack of offensive ability or production. 1 more positive offensive play against UNC or Pitt would likely have you thinking differently about the Irish offense long about now.



• Next year, this team will be good. Weis will have juniors and sophomores all over the depth chart, with a strong number of seniors as well. Throw in a freshman 5 star Running Back in Cierre Wood, as well as more developed Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, and you will see an offense that could challenge all the records Brady set. The schedule is once again favorable with 4 built in wins against (Nevada, Purdue, Washington State, Washington), 4 winnable games (Navy, Pitt, Connecticut, Stanford), and 4 tough games (USC, @ Michigan, Michigan Stl, and Boston College). 2009 is Charlie's Waterloo - 9 wins or he's gone. I think 10 is what most people would expect, but 9 wins in 2009 will be what it takes to keep his job.

Fire Charlie because . . .

• The talent on the defensive and offensive lines has not and is not there. The Irish rushing attack sits at 95th in the country, despite having multiple 4 star running backs with major college offers (Jonas Grey, Robert Hughes, Armando Allen, and James Aldridge). While none of these backs is Barry Sanders, there has not been consistent run blocking for them to find lanes. On defense, its not much better for the DLine. The Irish defense ranks 111th in the country in tackles for a loss, and 82nd in sacks. Certainly linebackers need to make plays also, but the defensive line is clearly the issue. No team without strong lines on both sides of the ball can even sniff being in the top tier of college football teams. Recruiting hasn't been great on the Dline in particular, and doesn't look to be much better next year either.



• Charlie Weis has lost his last 15 games against teams with a winning record at the end of the season. That barb hurts badly, as it should. The Irish are not beating any good teams, or even 7-5 type teams right now. Navy this weekend will give him the chance to break this streak, as Navy is 6-3 and likely will finish with at least 7 wins. But beating Navy won't get Charlie much more than a pat on the back. No matter what excuses can be made for 2007 or the BCS blowouts in 2005 and 2006, the proof is in the W/L record, and Charlie has just not gotten the job done against decent competition. A few more losses to add onto this streak and Charlie is fired, with cause (right Al Davis?).



• Bad situational football, particularly in the 2nd half. The 2nd half and overtime of the Pitt game was the worst I had seen an Irish team handle time pressure since Ty Willingham. The lack of adjustments in the 2nd half of the UNC and Michigan St game definitely played a roll in each loss. No matter what talent is there, a well coached team will show poise and solid execution down the stretch. That statement cannot be used to describe the Irish right now. There have not been ample opportunities to show poise late when the game is still on the line, but we have seen nothing to say the Irish can handle the pressure since 2006/2005 (the final offensive drives of the UCLA game in '06, and the USC and Stanford games in '05). Another loss that was mismanaged late like the Pitt game will be devastating for Weis.



• Embarrassment factor. Weis has endured more 30 pt losses (3) and shutouts (3) in his 4 years than any big program should ever have in a decade. Any more additions to these tallies quite simply will be fatal to Weis's tenure at ND. Fans cannot and should not tolerate this. Not much to add here.

No matter how many pro and con lists you make, I believe decisions and opinions have to come from your "gut" - or the brain's evolved decision making capacity. Sometimes you just know the answer, but you may not be able to explain it. Oftentimes that feeling is the result of your brain calculating and weighing all these pro's and con's and spitting out the answer.

My "gut" says that Charlie is going to finish his 10 year contract. I think we'll remember these tough losses and this tough time just like that night at the casino where you're entire stack of chips was down to one or two more hands of blackjack - but then you rallied back to win 10 times what you started with. The chips are low for the Irish football program right now, but this session is not over yet. Win a few more this season, and then next season we put all our chips in the middle and see what happens.