Looking Back - Seniors

With the last home game of the 2008 season being this weekend against Syracuse, we can look back on the senior class and see how they did. On the official roster at UND.com, there are 23 "seniors". Since Notre Dame lists 4th and 5th year players both the same as "seniors", there are players who arrived at Notre Dame in the '04 class, and some that arrived with the '05 class.

Of the 23 seniors, you can break it down like this:

• 9 players have played significant time during their career, and have completed their eligibility
  


• 6 players have played significant time during their career, but have 1 year of eligibility remaining
  


• 8 players are walk ons or did not see much field action during their career; none is likely to be asked to return for a 5th year
  

See the spreadsheet snippet below that details the names in the first two categories of seniors. If you cannot view the spreadsheet via email or RSS reader, click here.

And to put these 2004 and 2005 classes in perspective from an overall talent standpoint, here are the recruiting rankings by the two major services from 2004 through the current class being assembled for 2009. Weis was hired in December 2004 and did partial work on the 2005 class, the full work on the 2006 - forward classes (click here if you cannot view):

As you can see, the talent level in 2004 and 2005 was rated very poorly. In many's opinion, the very bad national ranking for these two classes is what pulled the rug out on Ty Willingham. Losing is bad, but with good recruiting in the pipeline (like Charlie), a coach can get a little bit more slack.

Digging into the 2004 and 2005 classes actually shows them to be significantly worse than the ranking would entail. In 2004, the Irish signed 16 players, which is a small class (20 is about average). Of those 16 players, an amazing 10 players transferred or left school. The top two players in this class were both 3 star rated, being Darius Walker (pictured) and Maurice Crum. The 2005 class was not much better, as only 15 players were signed. Only 3 of these players transferred/left, however. But the only 2 four star players signed in the 2005 class (Joey Hiben and DJ Ford [pictured]) left the team and transferred, respectively.

The point of this post is twofold - first, to congratulate and recognize the seniors who will walk through the tunnel for the last time on Saturday. Terrail Lambert, Maurice Crum, David Bruton, and Pat Kuntz will be sorely missed by the defense, as each is a multi-year starter. Maurice Crum has now started for 4 straight seasons, while David Bruton has been a significant contributor for 4 seasons as well. Bruton will be a first day pick in the NFL, with his rangy speed at free safety. Turkovich, Lambert, and Crum may have a chance to make an NFL team, but at this point the future is uncertain. These guys have fought hard through the firing of Willingham (the '04 class) and the transition to the Weis era. Bruton and Crum have been big time leaders for our defense, and have stayed completely out of trouble. Kudos to all of these guys as they move forward with their young lives.

The second point of the post is the obvious one. The lack of talent in the 2004 and 2005 classes explains a lot of the problems of the 2007 and 2008 seasons. I don't care how much talent is in the freshman and sophomore classes, rarely are there good teams that do not have strong junior and senior classes. Sprinkling a few Freshman and Sophomores with some experienced guys can work, but making the freshman and sophomore classes the foundation of your team will not. 2005 and 2006 football seasons had strong upper classes, and you saw the results. 2007 and 2008 do not. 2009 will.

I am not blaming the recent struggles of Notre Dame football fully on Ty Wilingham. Weis has made a huge number of coaching mistakes, equally as devastating as Willingham's lack of 2004-2005 recruiting. Willingham is gone forever and he is not the point.

My point is that come next season, the 2009 season, the excuses are over. All 4 classes of players will have been solidly ranked classes with depth and a minimal amount of attrition. This will be the year that Weis can best be judged by, more than any of his previous 4 years.

Two for the Money

The 2008 Irish have out gained 9 of their 10 opponents this season in total offense, while the defense has not given up more than 24 points during regulation in any 1 game. How are the 6-4 Irish not 8-2 or even 9-1? Two reasons explain, with the second being the most important:

The lack of a consistent rushing attack - This will always be a reason why teams struggle. The inability to get 3 yards rushing when you need it - or more directly, the inability to force a defense to respect your ground attack - will cause major issues. Defenses prey on more passes, causing turnovers. Fewer first downs are gained, particularly easier, 3 and 4 yard third down plays late in a game. Here is how we look for the season, through 10 games:

• Total Rushing Offense - Irish rank 84th in the country at 127 yards per game. To get to where I think a Weis offense should be, at a minimum, is about in the top 40 in the country. Right now Louisville ranks #40 in the country with 173 yards per game. Quite simply, we need to improve our rushing attack by 50 yards per game to be approaching "dangerous".



• Total Rushing Yards per carry - The Irish sit at 3.66 ypc for the season. The Irish need to be averaging at least a yard better per carry. But even 4.66 ypc would only yield 166 yards per game (given the same number of carries per game as has occurred - 34.5), which would slot the Irish 46th best in the country. That would be good but not great.
  

Now on to the #1 reason the Irish don't have a better record than 6-4 . . .

Turnovers - The Irish rank 102nd in the country in turnovers, giving up 25. Compare that with Florida, who has given up the 3rd fewest in the country with 10 (through the same number of games). The bad news is that Florida is almost as young on offense as the Irish. The good news is that Florida is most experienced and skilled as the most important turnover position - quarterback. A few game perspectives on how turnovers effected the outcome . . .

• The Pitt game - The Irish played sub-par, particularly on offense in the 2nd half. Pitt is a very solid but not great team. Yet the Irish clearly should have won the game and likely are a better team on their best days. Why? The Irish committed zero turnovers! Just by not turning over the ball, we should have won the football game without an even average performance by the Irish otherwise. If we turn the ball over once or twice, Pitt likely wins in regulation.



• The BC and UNC games - In both road games, the Irish turned the ball over 5 times, while the opponent turned the ball over 0 times. Our offense out gained their offense in both games (472 to 322 in the UNC game, 292 to 246 in the BC game). When you give the other team 7 points on interception returns (7 in both games), and then you follow that up by giving the other team field position inside the 50 yard line twice, you are not going to win football games. Against UNC, one less turnover and the Irish likely win the game. Against BC, it would have taken a reduction of 2 to have a chance. Amazing - we could have reasonably won both games and still had 4 to 0 turnover deficit against UNC and a 3 to 0 against BC.



• Navy - Yes, we actually won this game. Despite the 5 turnovers we had against Navy!! Yes, Navy gave us a turnover, so the margin was only 5-1 against us. Easily add 10 points to our score - if not 14 or 21 - if the Irish simply do not turn the ball over. The game never has a chance to be close with bad officiating and ridiculous onsides kicks.



• Road games turnover margin (5 games) - 19 turnovers by the Irish . . . only 2 by the 5 opponents



• Home games turnover margin (5 games) - 6 turnovers by the Irish . . . 16 by the 5 opponents.



• For the season, the Irish turnover margin of 25 turnovers lost to 18 turnovers gained is not good. 102nd in the country at giving it away, but 63rd in takeaways, despite the lopsided (seemingly backwards) numbers.

Certainly there are other contributing factors to a lesser extent. The playcalling has been bad at times, the inability to generate tackles for a loss on defense is another. But these reasons pale in comparison to the amount of points we have given opponents via turnovers, which are largely related to over-use of the pass resulting from the inability to run the ball.

Any improvement in the Irish win-loss total for the 2009 season will be a direct correlation to improvement in these two areas. Particularly turnovers on the road, which is the most telling stat of anything above. Hopefully the Irish can make a few strides to improvement in the final 3 games.

All Hands on Deck

It has taken 48 hours for my heart to return to a normal rhythm after the near disaster Saturday in Baltimore. After controlling the game and dominating for 55 minutes, the Irish - including many walk ons and second teamers who played most of the last 5 minutes - had a sloppy finish that almost cost them the game. Most of you watched the ending, so I will not recount what happened. In short - the Irish 2nd team offense fumbled on the goal line, which then prompted a long Navy touchdown, followed by 2 on side kick recoveries and a touchdown sandwiched in between. Navy had the ball with a minute to go and a chance to score a game winning touchdown, but thankfully failed.

This game is your perfect "glass half full or half empty" or "Jekyl and Hyde" or whatever other cliche you wish to describe contrasting good and bad performance by the Irish. Here is your bullet style attack from the Vatican:

Good Irish . . .

• Irish rushing attack racked up 230 yards against a solid Navy rush defense (previously 30th nationally, giving up an average of 116 yards per game). I realize this was Navy and this should happen, but it was nice to see the Irish pound Navy with success throughout the game (and outrush the #2 rushing attack in the country). All 4 Irish backs had their moments, as James Aldridge, Robert Hughes, Armando Allen, and even freshman Jonas Gray all got in the action. A solid effort by the backs and especially the offensive line. Hopefully this will build confidence in the rushing game.



• 2nd Half Offensive Adjustments - A credit to Weis and his playcalling for simplifying the 2nd half gameplan, using only swing passes, screen passes, and the running game. Why throw forward passes when Navy's defensive backs were giving a 10 yard cushion, their safeties playing deep zone coverage, and the linebackers played the short zone? Navy was doing what most teams have done against the Irish in the 2nd half of the season - make them win via the short stuff, not the quick strike deep passes that the Irish feasted on against early opponents. Take what they give you, and don't try to force passes into triple zone coverage (Ahem, Jimmy).



• Irish defense held Navy to 120 yards less than their rushing average. Other than the 2nd teamers in the last few minutes, the Irish defense once again had a fantastic effort, forcing Navy to punt 8 times. Navy's option attack never got going in the game, despite what the score may indicate. The Irish held Navy to 7 points through 58 minutes, and even some late fluke touchdowns cannot erase the efforts of the Irish defense. Kudos.



• Irish Punt teams - The Irish blocked a punt early and scored a touchdown when Mike Anello broke through the line and made the block. This was clearly the play of the 1st half, and a play that let ND take a sigh of relief while the offense wasn't yet clicking. On the 3 punts that the Irish made to the Middies, Navy only was able to return 1 of them for a loss of 1 yard. A solid day's work on both sides of the punt coverage.

Bad Irish . . .

• 5 Turnovers - Nothing more needs to be said. 2 interceptions, 3 fumbles, versus only 1 Navy turnover. For the season on the road, the Irish turnover margin is something like 20 to 1. I am pretty sure the road game turnover margin was 15-0 against the Irish when the game began, but no matter what the specifics, its a sad picture. You simply cannot turn the ball over that many times on the road and win football games. The Irish better get this part together, otherwise USC will beat us by 50.



• Clausen's passing performance - awful. He continues to throw passes into the zone coverage most teams are playing against the Irish. Defenses know that ND's best attack has been the deep pass, and so defending this pass has been priority #1 the past few weeks as Pitt, BC, and Navy have all displayed a similar strategy. When there are 7 men in zone pass coverage, there are only going to be so many holes. Clausen must take what the defense gives him - even if he is throwing the short swing passes to Armando on every play. The only way to get the defense out of those coverages is to beat them to death on the short passes and the running game. Take the 5 yards per pass and move on, and stop forcing passes into triple coverage.



• Brian Smith and Michael Floyd injuries - Unfortunately, two of our brightest young stars will be out up to 4 weeks, missing the Syracuse and USC games. Both were taken out early in the Navy game, both with knee strains. Navy likes to chop block and they did this on Smith, while Floyd was the victim of someone falling on his knee. Its going to be that much more difficult to have a respectable showing at USC with these guys out.



• Hands team is fired. The two onside kicks that Navy recovered were awful displays of how to attempt to receive an onsides kick. The unit looked tenative, scared, and worst of all, very poorly coached. The front line of a hands team always blocks the oncoming kicking team, while the 2nd line gets the ball. ND's front line stood there, not blocking or grabbing the ball, and the result was a Naval assault that Douglas MacArthur would have been proud of. On the very first Navy onside kick, Irish hands teamer Robby Parrish batted the ball out of bounds. He smiled and was excited - clearly not knowing he had committed a penalty of "batting". The fact that the hands team did not know about this rule was evidence to poor coaching for this extremely important play. This may be the only time this season where the Irish need to use their hands team, and it was almost a fatal performance.

As for my 4 game predictions, 3 of them were decently close while 1 was way off. Clausen did not pass for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, but less than half of that plus 2 interceptions. The Irish defense and rushing attack both did significantly better than I expected, a great performance for each. I picked the score to be 31-21 Irish, and I was just 4 points total off the exact score. Certainly I didn't expect Navy to score 14 points in 30 seconds late in the game, but the prediction was close. My season prediction record in Irish games is 7-3 straight up, 6-4 when predicting who covers the point spread.

This week the Irish need to get healthy, and pound hapless Syracuse this weekend. Playing well against USC is priority #1b right now, even with beating Syracuse this week being at the forefront. Hopefully the Irish can start gameplanning now for the USC game, without short changing the Syracuse game preparation.

Sink or Sail

Notre Dame vs Navy

11:00am CST, Saturday, CBS National Coverage

(from Baltimore, MD)

The Irish play the trickiest game on the schedule this Saturday as they take on the Midshipmen of Navy. Last year's loss to Navy was the one that broke the streak of 43 straight wins, a stinging loss that sank the Irish to the lowest of lows.

The story is the same every year Notre Dame plays Navy - the talented, widely recruited bunch plays the little recruited, hard working chain gang. The Navy squad always has a built in way of getting fired up when they play Notre Dame - no one thinks they are as good or talented as the Irish. Typically Navy also plays with an additional chip on their shoulder - revenge. But not this year, as Navy looks to start a 2 game winning streak against the Irish for the first time since the days of Roger Staubach.

Just because Notre Dame has lost two tough games, has a sputtering offense, and lost to Navy last year, does not preclude the Irish from doing what they are expected to do against Navy this year and every year they play until the end of time - win comfortably. Here are the reasons why Notre Dame will win this football game comfortably:

• The Irish defense is up to the task - I will keep saying it as long as someone listens, but this is the best Notre Dame defense in some time. They do not give up the big play, and have no glaring weakness. Run defense is their weakness, but the Irish still are respectable against the run (53rd in the country, 132 yards per game). Jon Tenuta is the X factor for the Irish defense. I would be surprised if his blitzes do not seriously disrupt the Navy rushing attack, possibly causing some bad QB pitches or fumbles.




• It took a game of epic proportions for Navy to beat the worst Irish team in 40 years. Lets not forget that last year's game was a 3 overtime victory for Navy, a game in which the Irish passed on a 41 yard field goal to win the game as time expired. The Irish also gave Navy 7 points late in the second half on a costly Evan Sharpely fumble, and blew some chances in overtime to win the game. The point is that the Irish should have won the game last year, and were likely the better team. Navy is not just going to start winning games regularly in this series - so long as we respect them as an opponent and take care of business.




• The Irish have not punted against Navy in 3 years . . . let that one sink in. The Irish offense has not punted against Navy in 3 years. What makes anyone think the Irish will not have some modicum of success offensively on Saturday? Last year's awful offense scored 44 points in the 3 overtime game. The Irish should move the ball, and hopefully they will gain confidence early and get out of the offensive funk they have been in.

The tone of this post might convey arrogance or denial that Notre Dame could ever lose to Navy again. We certainly can lose to Navy, who is well coached and shortens games with its ball control offense. But the only way Navy beats Notre Dame is if the Irish players and coaches over look the middies - if we take them lightly. If we respect what they do, modify our game plan to counter their distinctive style, and avoid ridiculous mistakes, we win this game 9 times out of 10. Prediction time:

• Prediction 1 - The Irish defense will hold the Navy rushing attack to a 240 yard day - a good day for most teams, but 60 yards below the #2 rushing attack's average. I think ND getting a lead early will force some more passes, but otherwise the Irish defense would hold Navy to their average of 300 yards.



• Prediction 2 - The Irish rushing attack finds some success, rushing for 135 yards. Navy's rush defense is one of the best its had in some time (30th nationally, 116 yards per game), but the Irish find a way to move the ball from some spread formations with Armando Allen.



• Prediction 3 - Jimmy Clausen throws for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has a solid day, not turning the ball over at all. Late in the game the Irish focus on the rush game completely, so after a very fast and furious first half, Jimmy throws much less in the 2nd.

No, I am not predicting a Golden Tate punt or kickoff return this week. Mostly because the return units have played poorly, and Navy does not punt the ball as often as most teams. But I would be surprised if this season finishes without a "house call" on a punt or kickoff by Golden. He is that good.

Score prediction - Irish 31 Navy 21

The Irish get up early 14-0 on a turnover and a deep pass play, and cruise from there. The 10 point margin is closer than the game ever really was, as Weis runs the ball almost the entire second half. This team needs a confidence boost, and I think this game provides the springboard to finish the season strong.

[My record picking the Irish this season, straight up, is 6-3, as I predicted the Michigan St loss. My record against the spread is 5-4, as I wrongly predicted a cover in the Michigan St, Pitt, Stanford, and BC games]

More Weis Talk

Great article on Weis and his current status as ND coach over at the Blue Gray Sky. Definitely a good read. Their article hits on a lot of the same points as my post below - I'm not sure Weis is THE coach, but its too early to drop the hammer on him just yet. Positive signs exist, and in the coming weeks we will know more. And how could you not love a coach that can handle an AK when needed?


Check back tomorrow for a Navy game preview. The trickiest game of the year has become more frightening than ever - as its a do or die game for Weis and the Irish.