We are what we are . . .

We are a 6-5 football team that just got beat by 2-8 Syracuse.

We are a mediocre football team.

We are a team that played one of the easier BCS team schedules in the country.

We are a program that can and will be successful again.

We are, possibly, going to be looking for a new coach in 7 days time.

Saturday was a difficult loss, no doubt. But it was the easiest loss for me to swallow this year actually. I became "numb" right before halftime when I realized that we still had not scored a touchdown against the lowly Orange. I told myself that getting upset would do no good, and prepared myself for the worst. Things looked better in the second half, but the moment that the Irish settled for a field goal instead of a touchdown, starting on offense after a fumble on the 4 yard line, I knew that what a 13 point lead could mean - a 1 point loss. Via this whole process, I had shut down my emotions and prepped my psyche for a loss. I recommend this to any of you that have emotional issues when the Irish lose.

I am not going to waste (much) time telling you about how we outgained another opponent on offense, yet did not win the game. I am not going to tell you about the solid game Jimmy Clausen had, throwing for 291 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Nor am I going to mention how we lost the 2nd game this season in which we had zero turnovers. Whoops I just mentioned all of that. And the NCAA really needs to clarify the "toe then heel" catch rule, confusion over which has burned the Irish for the 2nd straight week.

Those of you that read this blog know that we are very pro-Charlie and have defended Coach throughout this entire season. The mainstays of the Charlie-defense have been the promise of incoming and developing talent, as well as how most of the Irish losses this season were games which the Irish should have won. Right now, none of those defenses catch any ears or have any credibility.

Don't waste your time defending Charlie any longer. Instead of defending him and pointing to the future, it is time that Charlie measures up in the only category that matters - Wins. At this point, Charlie is pretty much unable to impress me via the recruiting rankings, stat lines, depth charts, almost wins, moral victories, or quarterback play. We all want Notre Dame back to where she should be - top 10 every year, a team feared far and wide. If Charlie cannot do better than this, its time to move on and find someone else who can.

Many of you like my "predictions" so here is another one for you: If the Irish fail to cover the 29 point spread against USC this Saturday, Charlie Weis will be unemployed 7 days from right now.

Orange Bowl

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orangemen

Saturday November 22nd, 2008, 1:30pm Central

Notre Dame Stadium - Notre Dame, Indiana

The Irish are 20 point favorites over the (2-8) Orangemen on Saturday. Nearly 14 inches of snow has fallen during the week, so this game will be a cold one. And it could be a Green one, as the Irish sometimes wear the Green jersey for Senior Day, the last home game of the season. We shall see.

Despite the point spread and the firing of the Syracuse coach Greg Robinson last weekend, the Irish cannot overlook any opponents. Syracuse has played a solid schedule (losing by only 10 to West Virgina and Pitt) and will not be shocked by the talent level the Irish have. Now the quick stats:

• Syracuse Offense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 112th/65th


• Irish Offense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 28th/84th


• Syracuse Defense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 72nd/107th


• Irish Defense National Rank (Pass/Rush) - 22nd/57th

The Orangemen's best weapon is running back Curtis Brinkley, who is actually pretty good. The kid is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has rushed for 1060 yards through 10 games, against solid but not great Big East competition. The Syracuse QB seems efficient, rarely throwing the ball but not throwing many INTs (9 TDs against 4 INTs). And Syracuse on defense is probably the second worst defense the Irish have played this season, close to the level of Washington. This should not be a close game.

Prediction time!

• Prediction 1 - Jimmy Clausen finally gets a good game on the books in the 2nd half of the season, throwing for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, against 1 INT.


• Prediction 2 - The Irish rack up 200 yards rushing, another solid effort on the ground.


• Prediction 3 - Yes, Golden Tate finally makes a "house call" on a punt or kickoff return.

Score prediction time!

IRISH 41 Syracuse 17

(Record picking the Irish straight up is 7-3, while only 6-4 against the spread)

Bowl-O-Rama

Notre Dame hit 6 wins last week, which means they are going to a bowl game. The Irish have some bowl tie-ins with the Big East, but here is your full bowl picture for the Irish. The breakdown for Notre Dame's bowl hopes are pretty simple - if the BCS is out of the equation (which it is), then there are only 3 bowl destinations available to the Irish.

Cotton Bowl

Dallas, Texas

Jan 2nd, 2009, 1pm central

Big 12 #2 vs SEC #3-5/Notre Dame

Bowl payout - $3.0m

Chances at attending - 10%

Likely opponents - Texas / Texas Tech / Ok. State / Oklahoma / Missouri

During 2006, Notre Dame re-signed a 4 year deal with the Cotton Bowl, which enables the Cotton Bowl to select Notre Dame 1 time during the 2007-2010 Cotton Bowls, in the place of the SEC team. My 10% chance might be too generous - but here is how I figure those odds. What the Irish have to do to get there . . . If Notre Dame wins out, beating Syracuse and USC, then the Irish would have a record of 8-4, and be riding the high of a nationally televised upset of archrival USC. The Cotton Bowl would then be forced to pick an SEC team like LSU or South Carolina (likely 8-4 or possibly LSU at 9-3 if they beat Ole Miss and Arkansas) over an 8-4 Notre Dame team. Of course, beating USC would be one of the upsets of the year in college football, so this is incredibly unlikely. And trying to figure out an opponent on the wild chance that the Irish make the game all depends upon the Big 12 South and Big 12 title game in the coming two weeks.

Sun Bowl

El Paso, Texas

December 31st, 2008, 1pm central

Pac 10 #3 vs Big 12 #5 /Big East #2 /Notre Dame

Bowl Payout $1.9m

Chances of attending 25%

Potential Opponents - Cal, Oregon, Arizona

The Sun Bowl is a newer agreement by Notre Dame that allows the Sun Bowl to choose the Irish ahead of a Big 12 or Big East team. What the Irish have to do to get there . . . lose both remaining games, or barely beat Syracuse and then get crushed by USC. This is the bowl game for the 6-6 Notre Dame team, or possibly a 7-5 Notre Dame team when the Gator Bowl has an attractive Big 12 option. There is a chance the Gator Bowl would not pick a 7-5 Irish team, but I think those chances are slim. Bowl games pick the Irish whenever they have a chance, and I doubt the Gator Bowl would pass on that chance.

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

January 1st, 2009, Noon central

ACC #3 vs Big 12#3/Big East#2/Notre Dame

Bowl Payout - $2.5m

Chances of attending - 65%

Potential Opponents - Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami

What the Irish have to do to get there . . . Beat Syracuse, and put up a decent fight against USC. By "decent" I mean within two touchdowns I would say. In reality, as long as ND is 7-5, its going to be hard for the Gator Bowl to choose 8-4 Nebraska or 9-3 Cincinnati or 8-4 Pitt. Certainly the Gator Bowl could possibly have the choice of a 10-2 Missouri team from the Big 12, but I have to assume the struggling economy will factor in when selecting a regional team that will have to travel a lot of fans. Notre Dame fans are all over Florida and this would be much less of an issue.

Pretty simple bowl picture isn't it? The more complicated and wide open part of the bowl picture is who Notre Dame's opponent will be, not where they are going. My initial prediction post at the beginning of the season revealed my prediction of a Miami vs Notre Dame matchup in the Meineke Car Care Bowl [Note: I later realized the Irish could not even attend the Meineke Car Care Bowl! I thought the Irish were in the Big East selection pool for all their bowl games (Gator, Sun, Papa Johns, Meineke, International, and St Petersburg), but I believe the Irish are only contractually obligated to be a potential participant in the BCS and the above 3 bowls. Would love to hear what you know - I have had a difficult time figuring this out online] So Notre Dame vs Miami in the Gator Bowl would be an interesting matchup - and the one that I would predict as of today.

Whether the Irish go to the Gator or Sun Bowls (or especially the Cotton), they will be facing a difficult and quality opponent that will present a big challenge to gaining the first bowl win in 15 years.

Looking Back - Seniors

With the last home game of the 2008 season being this weekend against Syracuse, we can look back on the senior class and see how they did. On the official roster at UND.com, there are 23 "seniors". Since Notre Dame lists 4th and 5th year players both the same as "seniors", there are players who arrived at Notre Dame in the '04 class, and some that arrived with the '05 class.

Of the 23 seniors, you can break it down like this:

• 9 players have played significant time during their career, and have completed their eligibility
  


• 6 players have played significant time during their career, but have 1 year of eligibility remaining
  


• 8 players are walk ons or did not see much field action during their career; none is likely to be asked to return for a 5th year
  

See the spreadsheet snippet below that details the names in the first two categories of seniors. If you cannot view the spreadsheet via email or RSS reader, click here.

And to put these 2004 and 2005 classes in perspective from an overall talent standpoint, here are the recruiting rankings by the two major services from 2004 through the current class being assembled for 2009. Weis was hired in December 2004 and did partial work on the 2005 class, the full work on the 2006 - forward classes (click here if you cannot view):

As you can see, the talent level in 2004 and 2005 was rated very poorly. In many's opinion, the very bad national ranking for these two classes is what pulled the rug out on Ty Willingham. Losing is bad, but with good recruiting in the pipeline (like Charlie), a coach can get a little bit more slack.

Digging into the 2004 and 2005 classes actually shows them to be significantly worse than the ranking would entail. In 2004, the Irish signed 16 players, which is a small class (20 is about average). Of those 16 players, an amazing 10 players transferred or left school. The top two players in this class were both 3 star rated, being Darius Walker (pictured) and Maurice Crum. The 2005 class was not much better, as only 15 players were signed. Only 3 of these players transferred/left, however. But the only 2 four star players signed in the 2005 class (Joey Hiben and DJ Ford [pictured]) left the team and transferred, respectively.

The point of this post is twofold - first, to congratulate and recognize the seniors who will walk through the tunnel for the last time on Saturday. Terrail Lambert, Maurice Crum, David Bruton, and Pat Kuntz will be sorely missed by the defense, as each is a multi-year starter. Maurice Crum has now started for 4 straight seasons, while David Bruton has been a significant contributor for 4 seasons as well. Bruton will be a first day pick in the NFL, with his rangy speed at free safety. Turkovich, Lambert, and Crum may have a chance to make an NFL team, but at this point the future is uncertain. These guys have fought hard through the firing of Willingham (the '04 class) and the transition to the Weis era. Bruton and Crum have been big time leaders for our defense, and have stayed completely out of trouble. Kudos to all of these guys as they move forward with their young lives.

The second point of the post is the obvious one. The lack of talent in the 2004 and 2005 classes explains a lot of the problems of the 2007 and 2008 seasons. I don't care how much talent is in the freshman and sophomore classes, rarely are there good teams that do not have strong junior and senior classes. Sprinkling a few Freshman and Sophomores with some experienced guys can work, but making the freshman and sophomore classes the foundation of your team will not. 2005 and 2006 football seasons had strong upper classes, and you saw the results. 2007 and 2008 do not. 2009 will.

I am not blaming the recent struggles of Notre Dame football fully on Ty Wilingham. Weis has made a huge number of coaching mistakes, equally as devastating as Willingham's lack of 2004-2005 recruiting. Willingham is gone forever and he is not the point.

My point is that come next season, the 2009 season, the excuses are over. All 4 classes of players will have been solidly ranked classes with depth and a minimal amount of attrition. This will be the year that Weis can best be judged by, more than any of his previous 4 years.

Two for the Money

The 2008 Irish have out gained 9 of their 10 opponents this season in total offense, while the defense has not given up more than 24 points during regulation in any 1 game. How are the 6-4 Irish not 8-2 or even 9-1? Two reasons explain, with the second being the most important:

The lack of a consistent rushing attack - This will always be a reason why teams struggle. The inability to get 3 yards rushing when you need it - or more directly, the inability to force a defense to respect your ground attack - will cause major issues. Defenses prey on more passes, causing turnovers. Fewer first downs are gained, particularly easier, 3 and 4 yard third down plays late in a game. Here is how we look for the season, through 10 games:

• Total Rushing Offense - Irish rank 84th in the country at 127 yards per game. To get to where I think a Weis offense should be, at a minimum, is about in the top 40 in the country. Right now Louisville ranks #40 in the country with 173 yards per game. Quite simply, we need to improve our rushing attack by 50 yards per game to be approaching "dangerous".



• Total Rushing Yards per carry - The Irish sit at 3.66 ypc for the season. The Irish need to be averaging at least a yard better per carry. But even 4.66 ypc would only yield 166 yards per game (given the same number of carries per game as has occurred - 34.5), which would slot the Irish 46th best in the country. That would be good but not great.
  

Now on to the #1 reason the Irish don't have a better record than 6-4 . . .

Turnovers - The Irish rank 102nd in the country in turnovers, giving up 25. Compare that with Florida, who has given up the 3rd fewest in the country with 10 (through the same number of games). The bad news is that Florida is almost as young on offense as the Irish. The good news is that Florida is most experienced and skilled as the most important turnover position - quarterback. A few game perspectives on how turnovers effected the outcome . . .

• The Pitt game - The Irish played sub-par, particularly on offense in the 2nd half. Pitt is a very solid but not great team. Yet the Irish clearly should have won the game and likely are a better team on their best days. Why? The Irish committed zero turnovers! Just by not turning over the ball, we should have won the football game without an even average performance by the Irish otherwise. If we turn the ball over once or twice, Pitt likely wins in regulation.



• The BC and UNC games - In both road games, the Irish turned the ball over 5 times, while the opponent turned the ball over 0 times. Our offense out gained their offense in both games (472 to 322 in the UNC game, 292 to 246 in the BC game). When you give the other team 7 points on interception returns (7 in both games), and then you follow that up by giving the other team field position inside the 50 yard line twice, you are not going to win football games. Against UNC, one less turnover and the Irish likely win the game. Against BC, it would have taken a reduction of 2 to have a chance. Amazing - we could have reasonably won both games and still had 4 to 0 turnover deficit against UNC and a 3 to 0 against BC.



• Navy - Yes, we actually won this game. Despite the 5 turnovers we had against Navy!! Yes, Navy gave us a turnover, so the margin was only 5-1 against us. Easily add 10 points to our score - if not 14 or 21 - if the Irish simply do not turn the ball over. The game never has a chance to be close with bad officiating and ridiculous onsides kicks.



• Road games turnover margin (5 games) - 19 turnovers by the Irish . . . only 2 by the 5 opponents



• Home games turnover margin (5 games) - 6 turnovers by the Irish . . . 16 by the 5 opponents.



• For the season, the Irish turnover margin of 25 turnovers lost to 18 turnovers gained is not good. 102nd in the country at giving it away, but 63rd in takeaways, despite the lopsided (seemingly backwards) numbers.

Certainly there are other contributing factors to a lesser extent. The playcalling has been bad at times, the inability to generate tackles for a loss on defense is another. But these reasons pale in comparison to the amount of points we have given opponents via turnovers, which are largely related to over-use of the pass resulting from the inability to run the ball.

Any improvement in the Irish win-loss total for the 2009 season will be a direct correlation to improvement in these two areas. Particularly turnovers on the road, which is the most telling stat of anything above. Hopefully the Irish can make a few strides to improvement in the final 3 games.