Cotton Bowl
Dallas, Texas
Jan 2nd, 2009, 1pm central
Big 12 #2 vs SEC #3-5/Notre Dame
Bowl payout - $3.0m
Chances at attending - 10%
Likely opponents - Texas / Texas Tech / Ok. State / Oklahoma / Missouri
During 2006, Notre Dame re-signed a 4 year deal with the Cotton Bowl, which enables the Cotton Bowl to select Notre Dame 1 time during the 2007-2010 Cotton Bowls, in the place of the SEC team. My 10% chance might be too generous - but here is how I figure those odds. What the Irish have to do to get there . . . If Notre Dame wins out, beating Syracuse and USC, then the Irish would have a record of 8-4, and be riding the high of a nationally televised upset of archrival USC. The Cotton Bowl would then be forced to pick an SEC team like LSU or South Carolina (likely 8-4 or possibly LSU at 9-3 if they beat Ole Miss and Arkansas) over an 8-4 Notre Dame team. Of course, beating USC would be one of the upsets of the year in college football, so this is incredibly unlikely. And trying to figure out an opponent on the wild chance that the Irish make the game all depends upon the Big 12 South and Big 12 title game in the coming two weeks.
Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas
December 31st, 2008, 1pm central
Pac 10 #3 vs Big 12 #5 /Big East #2 /Notre Dame
Bowl Payout $1.9m
Chances of attending 25%
Potential Opponents - Cal, Oregon, Arizona
The Sun Bowl is a newer agreement by Notre Dame that allows the Sun Bowl to choose the Irish ahead of a Big 12 or Big East team. What the Irish have to do to get there . . . lose both remaining games, or barely beat Syracuse and then get crushed by USC. This is the bowl game for the 6-6 Notre Dame team, or possibly a 7-5 Notre Dame team when the Gator Bowl has an attractive Big 12 option. There is a chance the Gator Bowl would not pick a 7-5 Irish team, but I think those chances are slim. Bowl games pick the Irish whenever they have a chance, and I doubt the Gator Bowl would pass on that chance.
Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL
January 1st, 2009, Noon central
ACC #3 vs Big 12#3/Big East#2/Notre Dame
Bowl Payout - $2.5m
Chances of attending - 65%
Potential Opponents - Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami
What the Irish have to do to get there . . . Beat Syracuse, and put up a decent fight against USC. By "decent" I mean within two touchdowns I would say. In reality, as long as ND is 7-5, its going to be hard for the Gator Bowl to choose 8-4 Nebraska or 9-3 Cincinnati or 8-4 Pitt. Certainly the Gator Bowl could possibly have the choice of a 10-2 Missouri team from the Big 12, but I have to assume the struggling economy will factor in when selecting a regional team that will have to travel a lot of fans. Notre Dame fans are all over Florida and this would be much less of an issue.
Pretty simple bowl picture isn't it? The more complicated and wide open part of the bowl picture is who Notre Dame's opponent will be, not where they are going. My initial prediction post at the beginning of the season revealed my prediction of a Miami vs Notre Dame matchup in the Meineke Car Care Bowl [Note: I later realized the Irish could not even attend the Meineke Car Care Bowl! I thought the Irish were in the Big East selection pool for all their bowl games (Gator, Sun, Papa Johns, Meineke, International, and St Petersburg), but I believe the Irish are only contractually obligated to be a potential participant in the BCS and the above 3 bowls. Would love to hear what you know - I have had a difficult time figuring this out online] So Notre Dame vs Miami in the Gator Bowl would be an interesting matchup - and the one that I would predict as of today.
Whether the Irish go to the Gator or Sun Bowls (or especially the Cotton), they will be facing a difficult and quality opponent that will present a big challenge to gaining the first bowl win in 15 years.
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